Obama's Exec Order a landmine in waiting for GOP in 2016
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  Obama's Exec Order a landmine in waiting for GOP in 2016
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Author Topic: Obama's Exec Order a landmine in waiting for GOP in 2016  (Read 1583 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: November 17, 2014, 03:25:04 PM »

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/reaping-the-whirlwind--5

Today we're busily asking when President Obama will drop the immigration executive action hammer and whether Republicans will reply with screeching, government shutdowning or just getting it over with and finally impeaching President Obama. Indeed, this piece in Slate argues that the whole thing isn't as big a deal as it's cracked up to be since whatever President Obama does it's just as easy to undo when he leaves office in January 2017.

But this, I think, misses the point. That's exactly why this is such a big deal. Because if you think this is an explosive issue now, just wait until 2016.

...

If there are 5 million people who are affected by this order, the number of people who either have family ties to these individuals or affective relationships with them is much larger. I don't know if it's 15 million or 20 million or 40 million. But it's a lot more than 5 million people who will feel acutely the fate of these people hanging in the balance with the 2016 election. And advocates on both sides of the immigration divide, deporters and pro-immigrant activists will press the issue throughout the 2016 cycle. The 5 million affected can't vote and won't be able to for years. But many family members, friends, community members and employers can.

Yes, these people have been waiting for years to be able to come out of the shadows. But it's one thing to wait and another to come out of the shadows and then be forced to retreat into the darkness, with a perhaps heightened risk of deportation and family separation.

It all adds up to an intense and likely toxic campaign fracas in which a lot of people will have a unique and intense motivation to vote. That will apply to people on both sides of course. But the anti-immigration voters vote consistently almost every cycle. And as intense as your animus is toward undocumented immigrants, it's hard for it to compare to the motivation of voters who directly know someone who will be affected. And that latter group has far more 'drop-off' or occasional voters.

This isn't getting mentioned a lot right now. But behind the headlines I suspect it's one of the key reasons Republican elites are upset that this might happen: because it's an electoral grenade dropped right into the heart of the 2016 campaign.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2014, 06:17:25 PM »

A truly cunning move by Obama.
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2014, 06:59:05 PM »

In the event that this prediction comes true; i'm sure the Dems will once again somehow fail to capitalize.
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KCDem
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2014, 07:09:13 PM »

The three-dimensional chess finally falls into place Tongue
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2014, 09:38:41 PM »

In all of the plausibly competitive 2016 states, this is what I predict will be the net effect of the executive order.  Green means ambiguous or little net impact:



Basically, it makes sense only if they are confident it will help push Florida left of the tipping point.  There will also be Democratic risks/GOP opportunities in the rural North that should be taken seriously.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2014, 09:33:42 AM »

In all of the plausibly competitive 2016 states, this is what I predict will be the net effect of the executive order.  Green means ambiguous or little net impact:



Basically, it makes sense only if they are confident it will help push Florida left of the tipping point.  There will also be Democratic risks/GOP opportunities in the rural North that should be taken seriously.
I don't see how the executive order impacts Michigan, Ohio, etc.
 
The economy is going to be the #1 issue in 2016.  Most people Michigan and Ohio aren't going to make immigration their main priority, especially since it doesn't directly impact their states.  While there are people who are going to hate this executive order, they are A). Already probably supporting the Republican and B). Don't need to be further motivated in order to get them out to the polls.

There are also people who will be directly benefited from this executive order.  While these people were already very likely to support the Democrat, they have very low voting rates so this motivation could be useful to Democrats.

I could see the Republican trying to tie Clinton to Obama using this issue.  This would hurt her most in states where Obama lost but Clinton could have more appeal with working class whites, like Missouri and Georgia.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2014, 10:13:37 AM »

The President plays chess; his opponents play slots.
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MurrayBannerman
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2014, 04:05:44 PM »

In all of the plausibly competitive 2016 states, this is what I predict will be the net effect of the executive order.  Green means ambiguous or little net impact:



Basically, it makes sense only if they are confident it will help push Florida left of the tipping point.  There will also be Democratic risks/GOP opportunities in the rural North that should be taken seriously.
I don't see how the executive order impacts Michigan, Ohio, etc.
 
The economy is going to be the #1 issue in 2016.  Most people Michigan and Ohio aren't going to make immigration their main priority, especially since it doesn't directly impact their states.  While there are people who are going to hate this executive order, they are A). Already probably supporting the Republican and B). Don't need to be further motivated in order to get them out to the polls.

There are also people who will be directly benefited from this executive order.  While these people were already very likely to support the Democrat, they have very low voting rates so this motivation could be useful to Democrats.

I could see the Republican trying to tie Clinton to Obama using this issue.  This would hurt her most in states where Obama lost but Clinton could have more appeal with working class whites, like Missouri and Georgia.
Blue collar states don't like immigrants.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2014, 04:32:12 PM »

Blue collar states don't like immigrants.

Is there any actual evidence about that or are you just bloviating?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2014, 05:19:34 PM »

In all of the plausibly competitive 2016 states, this is what I predict will be the net effect of the executive order.  Green means ambiguous or little net impact:



Basically, it makes sense only if they are confident it will help push Florida left of the tipping point.  There will also be Democratic risks/GOP opportunities in the rural North that should be taken seriously.
I don't see how the executive order impacts Michigan, Ohio, etc.
 
The economy is going to be the #1 issue in 2016.  Most people Michigan and Ohio aren't going to make immigration their main priority, especially since it doesn't directly impact their states.  While there are people who are going to hate this executive order, they are A). Already probably supporting the Republican and B). Don't need to be further motivated in order to get them out to the polls.

There are also people who will be directly benefited from this executive order.  While these people were already very likely to support the Democrat, they have very low voting rates so this motivation could be useful to Democrats.

I could see the Republican trying to tie Clinton to Obama using this issue.  This would hurt her most in states where Obama lost but Clinton could have more appeal with working class whites, like Missouri and Georgia.
Blue collar states don't like immigrants.

Have a Hispanic in-law and your opinion of Hispanics goes way up. But just as significantly, many 'illegal' Hispanic immigrants have 'legal' relatives.  Barack Obama just might have secured Colorado and Nevada for Hillary and put Arizona in play.

Voting behavior of working-class whites in recent elections suggest that they are almost as reactionary as Corporate America. They are superstitious, gullible, and angry -- and their anger will become favorable to Democrats only when a huge swing toward populism happens to a Democratic Party that looks more like Eisenhower-era Republicans than to Bryan-era Democrats. 

(It's now hard to distinguish the Republican Party from the John Birch Society).
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2014, 06:20:50 PM »

Blue collar states don't like immigrants.

Luckily I'm immigrating to California, then!
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2014, 07:55:56 PM »

If an anti immigrant republican becomes the nominee in 2016 who vows to reverse this, this could become like the Civil Rights bill in 1964, in the sense Republicans will have completely lost the vote for Hispanics now.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2014, 12:18:41 AM »

If an anti immigrant republican becomes the nominee in 2016 who vows to reverse this, this could become like the Civil Rights bill in 1964, in the sense Republicans will have completely lost the vote for Hispanics now.

The thing is, in order to win the primary, every Republican will vow to reverse it.
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Sol
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« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2014, 12:22:51 AM »

If an anti immigrant republican becomes the nominee in 2016 who vows to reverse this, this could become like the Civil Rights bill in 1964, in the sense Republicans will have completely lost the vote for Hispanics now.

The thing is, in order to win the primary, every Republican will vow to reverse it.

Exactly. Racists make up 99% of the GOP, and so the Republicans have to prove their Latin@-hating creds.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2014, 12:25:13 AM »

If an anti immigrant republican becomes the nominee in 2016 who vows to reverse this, this could become like the Civil Rights bill in 1964, in the sense Republicans will have completely lost the vote for Hispanics now.

Ugh. How many times have I seen immigration reform compared to the Civil Rights Act? It's a dumb comparison and doesn't make a lick of sense to anyone who understands the issues.
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Spamage
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« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2014, 12:46:46 AM »

If an anti immigrant republican becomes the nominee in 2016 who vows to reverse this, this could become like the Civil Rights bill in 1964, in the sense Republicans will have completely lost the vote for Hispanics now.

The thing is, in order to win the primary, every Republican will vow to reverse it.

Exactly. Racists make up 99% of the GOP, and so the Republicans have to prove their Latin@-hating creds.

Roll Eyes
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2014, 02:23:58 AM »

Not to mention the fact that the Democrats were already winning by wide margins amongst Blacks stemming from what, you guessed it, the economy and jobs. By 1930, both Parties had thrown them under the bus and so they started voting for the ones that would get them a job.

The difference between getting 30% and 10%-15% (before and after CRA) was because it took forty years for a Republican to even lift a finger to try and win black voters and Bush's 16% in OH actually helped to win the election in 2004. Nixon was trying to play both sides publically (opposing busing, whilst in action moving aggressively to desegregate Southern schools), a strategy geared to win white moderates not African American's. Reagan never really tried and his statements both in 1980 and later his approach to South Africa weren't exactly popular in the community.

Sheer necessity would force the effort to be forthcoming and if 1936 is evidence of anything it is that kitchen table issues can often have the last word (FDR didn't do a thing except kotow to the Southern Democrats), yet he was the first Democrat to win African-Americans.
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