NH-Sen: long Hassan wait

[RogueBeaver]

Her decision on whether to challenge Ayotte could take up to a year.

[free my dawg]

Spoilers: She doesn't seem like the Washington-type anyway, and has the same situation as Martinez (has a disabled relative she needs to take care of). I'd peg her odds of running at 10%.

[Vega]

NH local politics is a pretty low-key thing... I doubt she'll make the jump the U.S. Senate.

[Maxwell]

Hassan was their best option, but Ayotte is certainly beatable. Their next big get would be Kuster, who is a top level wave survivor.

[Maxwell]

Isn't Ayotte reasonably popular? PPP had her up at 49/32. She seems fairly liked in New Hampshire and was reappointed Attorney General by a Democratic Governor, John Lynch. Given she probably would run ahead of the Republican ticket, she seems one of the safer incumbents facing re-election.

So was Shaheen at this point.

[henster]

If Hillary is winning by 5-7 points in NH then Ayotte is in trouble, a 1-3 point win she probably survives.

[Boston Bread]

Even if we don't get Hassan, NH tends to swings with the nation more than the candidate and Ayotte isn't exactly famous so it will depend on the presidential performance.
My guess:
Hassan + Pres. Dem Cand. carries NH = Ayotte loses
Random Dem + Pres. Dem Cand. carries NH by Obama '12 margin = Ayotte loses

[Bojack Horseman]

Well if Hassan is term-limited, what better does she have to do? If she loses, she's still the sitting governor, so she's still got a job for two years after the election.

[moderatevoter]

Gubernatorial terms in New Hampshire last two years, not four. Hassan could opt to run for re-election.

[Miles]

^ And also, there aren't term limits for NH Governors.

[Vosem]

Ayotte is popular, but in a state like NH that doesn't really matter. I don't think Hassan will go for it -- Shea-Porter, actually, I think might. Losing narrowly in NH isn't really a big, career-ending deal (Hassan lost her reelection for state Senate, then ran for Governor and won, for example), and Shea-Porter's been in the House longer than Kuster, and representing the more Republican parts of the state. She's a weak fundraiser but the DSCC could help her, and I think she's still personally popular.

Kuster's not that impressive of a wave survivor -- she faced a pretty bad candidate in the more Democratic of New Hampshire's two districts.

[Skill and Chance]

Ayotte is popular, but in a state like NH that doesn't really matter. I don't think Hassan will go for it -- Shea-Porter, actually, I think might. Losing narrowly in NH isn't really a big, career-ending deal (Hassan lost her reelection for state Senate, then ran for Governor and won, for example), and Shea-Porter's been in the House longer than Kuster, and representing the more Republican parts of the state. She's a weak fundraiser but the DSCC could help her, and I think she's still personally popular.

Kuster's not that impressive of a wave survivor -- she faced a pretty bad candidate in the more Democratic of New Hampshire's two districts.

I don't know about that.  Marilinda Garcia got quite a lot of hype.  I think it will end up being Kuster who runs.  2016 will be a good test of whether NH has moved permanently left or just liked Obama.

[New_Conservative]

Isn't Ayotte reasonably popular? PPP had her up at 49/32. She seems fairly liked in New Hampshire and was reappointed Attorney General by a Democratic Governor, John Lynch. Given she probably would run ahead of the Republican ticket, she seems one of the safer incumbents facing re-election.

So was Shaheen at this point.

Shaheen similarly survived, but that was a wave 2014. I don't expect 2016 to be a wave.

New Hampshire probably reelects Ayotte, if they don't, New Hampshire cements itself as a Lean D state.

[moderatevoter]

Shaheen was also running against Scott Brown. I think she would have gone down against a somewhat credible candidate without the carpetbagging baggage.

[IceSpear]

Isn't Ayotte reasonably popular? PPP had her up at 49/32. She seems fairly liked in New Hampshire and was reappointed Attorney General by a Democratic Governor, John Lynch. Given she probably would run ahead of the Republican ticket, she seems one of the safer incumbents facing re-election.

So was Shaheen at this point.

As were Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan, and Udall.

[Panda Express]

There's no rush. Actually, if Hassan does jump in (and I hope she does), it's probably better to wait as long as possible. She should focus on doing a good job as governor and boosting her credentials.

[Vosem]

Shaheen was also running against Scott Brown. I think she would have gone down against a somewhat credible candidate without the carpetbagging baggage.

Martha Coakley for NH-Sen!

[NHI]

Shaheen was also running against Scott Brown. I think she would have gone down against a somewhat credible candidate without the carpetbagging baggage.

Yes.

[free my dawg]

Shaheen was also running against Scott Brown. I think she would have gone down against a somewhat credible candidate without the carpetbagging baggage.

Yes.

One of the Sununu brothers or some generic state senator (Forrester and Stiles come to mind first) could have definitely taken this seat. Hell, Hassan could have had a competitive race too.

[RogueBeaver]

Another carpetbagger from Mass wants to run for Senate, this one a Dem Some Dude. Granite Staters, who are likely real Dem candidates? If any.

[KCDem]

Ayotte is probably toast, move along.

[publicunofficial]

Another carpetbagger from Mass wants to run for Senate, this one a Dem Some Dude. Granite Staters, who are likely real Dem candidates? If any.

Not from NH, but after Hassan the most named candidates are Ann Kuster, Executive Council member Chris Pappas (Could also run for NH-01), former state securities bureau chief Mark Connolly, State Sen. Donna Soucy, State Sen. Dan Feltes, former State Sen. and 2012 Gov. candidate Jackie Cilley, and Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (Daughter of Jeanne, which would be an interesting Senate duo)

[Vosem]

Ayotte is probably toast, move along.

Heh? Unless one of the top Dem candidates run (basically Hassan/Lynch/Kuster), this one starts at Likely R.

[free my dawg]

Ayotte is probably toast, move along.

Heh? Unless one of the top Dem candidates run (basically Hassan/Lynch/Kuster), this one starts at Likely R.

So despite the Democratic party actually having a decent foot in the door with a bench, and some decent proven candidates down the ballot, this race is on par with Kentucky or Georgia if Kuster doesn't run.

Yeah, I'm gonna go with Leans R.

[Vosem]

Ayotte is probably toast, move along.

Heh? Unless one of the top Dem candidates run (basically Hassan/Lynch/Kuster), this one starts at Likely R.

So despite the Democratic party actually having a decent foot in the door with a bench, and some decent proven candidates down the ballot, this race is on par with Kentucky or Georgia if Kuster doesn't run.

Of course it isn't. Kentucky and Georgia are Safe R. Neither will be lost short of some unforeseeable Akin-style meltdown.

Yeah, I'm gonna go with Leans R.

Not really unreasonable either.