NH-Sen: long Hassan wait

[BM]

Ayotte is beatable, but shouldn't be underestimated either. I'd love to see such a vile creature lose, but from what I've seen she's a decent politician. But as others said, NH will remain as unpredictable as always.

[Mr. Smith]

Nah, New Hampshire is a reverse North Carolina in the making.

Ayotte is just waiting to be Haganed out.

[free my dawg]

Ayotte is probably toast, move along.

Heh? Unless one of the top Dem candidates run (basically Hassan/Lynch/Kuster), this one starts at Likely R.

So despite the Democratic party actually having a decent foot in the door with a bench, and some decent proven candidates down the ballot, this race is on par with Kentucky or Georgia if Kuster doesn't run.

Of course it isn't. Kentucky and Georgia are Safe R. Neither will be lost short of some unforeseeable Akin-style meltdown.

Well considering Isakson is probably running again (and either way is a huge step above Perdue or Deal) I wouldn't doubt that. If it's an open seat it's Likely R, especially considering the influx of sh*t candidates the GAGOP has.

Lean R is more reasonable, but to put a state as volatile as NH as Likely R is foolish, especially despite weak candidates. Trust me - I thought when Scott Brown declared Shaheen would win by at least 5 points, not 2.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I suspect McLane-Kuster will run.

[free my dawg]

I suspect McLane-Kuster will run.

As will I. She's got an obscene amount of CoH for her district - she's gotta spend it somewhere.

[hurricanehink]

The New England College Polling Institute has a poll out today that has Ayotte up 5 over Hassan, 48.1% to 42.5%, with 4.4% picking other and 5% undecided.

http://nhjournal.com/first-look-poll-shows-ayotte-with-small-lead-over-hassan-in-potential-2016-us-senate-matchup/

[retromike22]

D+1! jk, decimals.

[IceSpear]

>Decimals
>New England College

Still, the dynamic of this race seems pretty obvious at the moment. If Hassan/Lynch run = toss up. If anyone else, it starts at lean R.

[KCDem]

>Decimals
>New England College

Still, the dynamic of this race seems pretty obvious at the moment. If Hassan/Lynch run = toss up. If anyone else, it starts at lean R.

The DSCC needs to do everything possible to get Hassan to run. The blue-state Republicans need to go.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Assuming Clinton assumes office in JAN 2017, and eventual loss in WVA, this is a plausible map should Begich opt to run in AK.


51-50 senate Hickenlooper breaks tie

[Vosem]

Assuming Clinton assumes office in JAN 2017, and eventual loss in WVA, this is a plausible map should Begich opt to run in AK.


51-50 senate Hickenlooper breaks tie

That's a strange map, since Reid starts in a hole, there is no WV Senate election in 2016 and won't be (Manchin would only resign if he becomes Governor after the election), and Ayotte and Toomey both start unmistakably favored, and Kirk and Johnson both seem no worse than 50/50 right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton does very well in NV and Manchin might retire in 2016, I said plausible.  But no doubt Hickenlooper will do very well for Clinton in NV and CO.

[IceSpear]

Assuming Clinton assumes office in JAN 2017, and eventual loss in WVA, this is a plausible map should Begich opt to run in AK.


51-50 senate Hickenlooper breaks tie

That's a strange map, since Reid starts in a hole, there is no WV Senate election in 2016 and won't be (Manchin would only resign if he becomes Governor after the election), and Ayotte and Toomey both start unmistakably favored, and Kirk and Johnson both seem no worse than 50/50 right now.

At this point in 2012, Landrieu was unmistakably favored and Pryor was no worse than 50/50.

[henster]

So Toomey won 51-49 in 2010 and will be running in a blue state in a Presidential year and he's favored? The race is definitely a tossup.

[moderatevoter]

Also, OC, Begich would lose to Murkowski.

[IceSpear]

So Toomey won 51-49 in 2010 and will be running in a blue state in a Presidential year and he's favored? The race is definitely a tossup.

Oh, I didn't even notice that part. Now that Sestak has confirmed he's running, PA is unquestionably a toss up.