NH-Sen: long Hassan wait

[Vosem]

Ayotte is popular, but in a state like NH that doesn't really matter. I don't think Hassan will go for it -- Shea-Porter, actually, I think might. Losing narrowly in NH isn't really a big, career-ending deal (Hassan lost her reelection for state Senate, then ran for Governor and won, for example), and Shea-Porter's been in the House longer than Kuster, and representing the more Republican parts of the state. She's a weak fundraiser but the DSCC could help her, and I think she's still personally popular.

Kuster's not that impressive of a wave survivor -- she faced a pretty bad candidate in the more Democratic of New Hampshire's two districts.

[Vosem]

Shaheen was also running against Scott Brown. I think she would have gone down against a somewhat credible candidate without the carpetbagging baggage.

Martha Coakley for NH-Sen!

[Vosem]

Ayotte is probably toast, move along.

Heh? Unless one of the top Dem candidates run (basically Hassan/Lynch/Kuster), this one starts at Likely R.

[Vosem]

Ayotte is probably toast, move along.

Heh? Unless one of the top Dem candidates run (basically Hassan/Lynch/Kuster), this one starts at Likely R.

So despite the Democratic party actually having a decent foot in the door with a bench, and some decent proven candidates down the ballot, this race is on par with Kentucky or Georgia if Kuster doesn't run.

Of course it isn't. Kentucky and Georgia are Safe R. Neither will be lost short of some unforeseeable Akin-style meltdown.

Yeah, I'm gonna go with Leans R.

Not really unreasonable either.

[Vosem]

Assuming Clinton assumes office in JAN 2017, and eventual loss in WVA, this is a plausible map should Begich opt to run in AK.


51-50 senate Hickenlooper breaks tie

That's a strange map, since Reid starts in a hole, there is no WV Senate election in 2016 and won't be (Manchin would only resign if he becomes Governor after the election), and Ayotte and Toomey both start unmistakably favored, and Kirk and Johnson both seem no worse than 50/50 right now.