2016 map with 2014 exit poll results?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

How would that look? Could someone be so kind as to create an EV map based on the House exit polls, or any of the 2014 exit polls? I'm not into the map-making stuff.


Obviously it's not going to happen, but I'm interested.

[pbrower2a]

How would that look? Could someone be so kind as to create an EV map based on the House exit polls, or any of the 2014 exit polls? I'm not into the map-making stuff.


Obviously it's not going to happen, but I'm interested.

Democrats win all states to the north of the Potomac, Virginia, Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado are genuine toss-ups. The rest goes Republican.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Are there House exit poll results by state somewhere?

[Devils30]

Do you mean purely from 2014 results or adjust for likely 2016 demographics? Colorado and Florida likely flip blue with presidential turnout and Virginia isn't close.

[Likely Voter]

If you were to take the total raw vote for House in each state, then the GOP essentially won all presidential battleground states except NH (including PA). So they end up with this map:

GOP: 317
DEM: 221

Of course 129M voted in 2012 and only 75M voted in 2014 so it probably isn't worth reading too much into it, but maybe one could look at this as some kind of ultimate GOP ceiling.

 

[IceSpear]

Of course 129M voted in 2012 and only 75M voted in 2014 so it probably isn't worth reading too much into it, but maybe one could look at this as some kind of ultimate GOP ceiling.

Just eyeballing the map, that seems like a very good interpretation. Though a GOP ceiling probably includes NH, maybe not NV (there were very special circumstances in NV this year).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If you were to take the total raw vote for House in each state, then the GOP essentially won all presidential battleground states except NH (including PA). So they end up with this map:

GOP: 317
DEM: 221

Of course 129M voted in 2012 and only 75M voted in 2014 so it probably isn't worth reading too much into it, but maybe one could look at this as some kind of ultimate GOP ceiling.

 

Ouch. Republicans can't even take Minnesota, Michigan, or NM in a reverse 2008 wave esque year.

[IceSpear]

Oh, and I just noticed NE-02 is also red. Take that off the "Democratic floor" too, of course.