Era of the New Majority

[The Other Castro]

This is definitely my favorite TL on the site, and I even occasionally go back to your early posts to see how they line up with reality. I don't know how you manage to put so much realism and detail into this, but it is pretty incredible.

[smoltchanov]

My favorite TL too. A lot of attention to details...

[KingSweden]

This is, by far, the longest (posts) timeline I've seen on this forum. How far out do you plan to continue this?

EDIT: Forgot to say that this is easily my favorite TL.

As of right now, I have half-formed ideas for all the way out to 2052 at least on the US side, with a much clearer picture of what will happen up to roughly 2034/36 (I keep switching between two people winning '36, having trouble deciding). Whether I decide to actually go that far is another question. The truth with many foreign elections is that I come up with the results essentially as I write them.

I may scale a little back on the details and do quarterly updates (i.e. Jan-Mar, Apr-June) instead so I can focus more on elections and long-form entries and write-ups. The monthly updates are my least favorite to do, personally, but feedback on that is welcome from the readers.

[Mike Thick]

This is, by far, the longest (posts) timeline I've seen on this forum. How far out do you plan to continue this?

EDIT: Forgot to say that this is easily my favorite TL.

As of right now, I have half-formed ideas for all the way out to 2052 at least on the US side, with a much clearer picture of what will happen up to roughly 2034/36 (I keep switching between two people winning '36, having trouble deciding). Whether I decide to actually go that far is another question. The truth with many foreign elections is that I come up with the results essentially as I write them.

I may scale a little back on the details and do quarterly updates (i.e. Jan-Mar, Apr-June) instead so I can focus more on elections and long-form entries and write-ups. The monthly updates are my least favorite to do, personally, but feedback on that is welcome from the readers.

Jeez! I guess it makes sense -- it's the Era of the New Majority, not the decade! Keep up the great work!

[windjammer]

They won in TN? Woooow, incredible .

Great job btw

[KingSweden]

They won in TN? Woooow, incredible .

Great job btw

Well, not quite. Jeff Yarbro narrowly leads Senator Stephen Fincher, but it is headed to recount/court. Neither will be seated until the case is resolved.

[KingSweden]

January 2027: The new Democratic majority is seated and instantly passes rules empowering committee chairs and individual members, and passes legislation to permanently abolish the debt ceiling. Speaker Crowley is elected by all but one Democrat, Mandela Barnes, who votes instead for John Lewis. A mild January is expected to help the economy, and Sandoval sees the rest of his executive appointments inch through the Senate. Klobuchar warns that judicial nominees will be highly scrutinized from here on out. Former Supreme Court justice Antonin Scalia dies at 90 years old, four years after leaving the court.

January 2027 (continued): Russian troops secure much of suburban Moscow to put down some of the fall's rebellions. The crisis in Scotland cools down as the SNP cranks into election mode and hopes for a more pliant Alliance government. Pressure mounts on Nathan Cullen to step down with only nine months to go before the election and the Tories having opened a narrow lead on the NDP and the Liberals having recovered from their 2021/23 doldrums, indicating a likely minority government situation. A major earthquake shakes central China, killing close to 150,000 on January 31st, one of the worst disasters in recent history.

And now, for Sports: José Morales earns his second Ballon d'Or, and by the biggest voting margin in the short history of the award. The previous two winners, Farouk Haddadi and Daniele Paolini, are 3rd and 2nd, respectively. Haddadi turns around shortly thereafter to lead Algeria into the Africa Cup of Nations in Egypt, where they lose a second straight final (their fifth straight appearance in the final) to Ivory Coast, losing 6-5 on penalty kicks. In the 2027 AFC Asian Cup, Kenji leads Japan to its first title in 16 years as Japan defeat China 2-1 in India, the big country's first time hosting the final.

[KingSweden]

Assessing Governor's Races in 2027 and 2028

Just because 2026 just ended doesn't mean one can't assess the Gubernatorial races this year and next. Here's the lowdown:

Kentucky

To call Thomas Massie's experiment in libertarian rule in rural, white populist Kentucky a bizarre disaster would be an understatement. To Massie's credit, the good people of the Commonwealth elected him not once but twice and he has done exactly what he said he would do. But particularly in his second term, Massie has pursued a hard-right agenda that included massively slashing state aid to rural counties, closing nearly fifty public schools and passing one of the broadest voucher and charter school bills in the country, privatizing several state agencies - including Lexington and Louisville's transit agencies - and dramatically deregulating environmental protections. Massie fell short on right-to-work, though most suspect it wasn't a major priority for him to begin with.

With this undertaking, Massie has cratered his approval ratings in Kentucky and given Democrats nationwide a potent weapon against the "Liberty Movement." But Democrats should not be measuring drapes in the Governor's Mansion quite yet - long term, the trends in Kentucky do not favor them, even after a great 2026 that included picking up an open House seat and snatching the Senate seat once held by Mitch McConnell. Former US Rep. Ryan Quarles is the far-and-away frontrunner for the Republican nomination and figures to have the full Kentucky GOP machine behind him, and Quarles is a much more traditional GOP figure. Democrats are still trying to figure out who to run - do they recruit Adam Edelen, thought to prefer a run for Senate against Brett Guthrie in 2028? Do they try to resurrect the career of Alison Lundergan-Grimes? Despite Massie's abysmal approvals, Quarles would still be a narrow favorite to start. Democrats need a great candidate - whether they can find one is another question with a depleted bench.

Mississippi

To the surprise of many in the country, Mississippi might be Democrats' best pickup opportunity in the fall of 2027. Brandon Presley snatched the conservative 1st district two months ago in an upset, the demographics are moving in the favor of Team D and young white Mississippians are less conservative than their parents - in some cases, much less so. What could create an issue is that these young white Mississippians are not necessarily less Republican.

Tate Reeves is term-limited and thought to be eyeing Roger Wicker's Senate seat in three years, and the favorite to replace him is Lieutenant Governor Chris Massey, though Auditor and former Speaker Phil Gunn could make a run to close out his career. The wild card is Democrat Jim Hood - the former Attorney General, having only narrowly lost in 2023 after twenty years in office, is said to be looking at this race with the intent to run. With an open seat and the longtime success of populist Democrats in the South - particularly recently - this could be a race to watch.

Louisiana

Governor Rick Ward, unlike his two Republican counterparts in Mississippi and Kentucky, faces reelection rather than term-limits. Ward has governed as a moderate despite a conservative background out of necessity, with a 53-52 split in the State House. With strong growth in New Orleans and the Baton Rouge area, and the continue decline of rural parishes, Democrats see an opening in the State House, though most admit that the well-liked Ward will be nearly impossible to beat. Ward, who will be only 45 this fall, is thought of as a rising star in the party, and some are curious if he may skip reelection to run for Senate instead. The possibility has been swirling Baton Rouge for months.

Since State Senator Major Thibaut's surprise near-miss in November and December, many Democrats are hoping the conservative white populist will leap into the fray, but Thibaut has announced that he will run for retiring Senator Charles Boustany's seat instead. While he could change his mind, insiders close to Thibaut and in Baton Rouge doubt he runs against a popular incumbent - though the calculus could change. "Whatever Ward runs for, Major'll run for the opposite," a well-connected source in the LADP explained. The likeliest candidate is Baton Rouge Mayor Regina Barrow, whom most caution is unlikely to win statewide.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Loving this timeline! Seems to be a pretty accurate and straightforward forecasting of the near future based on current trends. I eagerly anticipate 28, keep it up!

[KingSweden]

Assessing Governor's Races in 2027 and 2028

Continued from above

Delaware

Republican Ken Simpler entered 2025 with more confidence than any GOP Governor in Delaware since Pete DuPont and the first Republican to hold the office since Mike Castle. In a similarly pragmatic mold to those two moderate Republicans, Simpler set out - along with the aid of a GOP Senate and a nearly even House - to reform the state's finances, drastically rebuild its infrastructure, cut public pensions, and cut taxes. Delaware's economy responded with an unemployment rate above the national average and has not seen positive growth since his inauguration.

What's making Simpler and his team sweat was the stunning victory by unknown liberal activist Allie Adams in the Senate primary over US Rep. and former Governor Jack Markell. Delaware's cozy political atmosphere - full of fairly conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans - was upended. A top Simpler aide referred to the Adams victory as an "earthquake - things like that don't happen in Delaware." Discounting the fact that Christine O'Donnell knocked out Mike Castle in the Tea Party wave sixteen years earlier, Democrats and Republicans alike are worried about what could happen in the Democratic primary. The favorite, as it stands, is Senate Majority Leader Bryan Townsend, 47. Democrats doubt there is another Adams lurking in the wings, but after all but guaranteeing Markell's win, people are hedging their bets. Almost everyone expects Townsend to be a mild favorite over Simpler.

New Hampshire

Last fall, Collin Van Ostern came galloping into the race late in the game and then blew out incumbent Governor Andy Sanborn after only one two-year term. Because it is hard to judge this race as Van Ostern was only inaugurated a week or two ago, we will refrain from trying to make any prognostications. Republicans are still licking their wounds and have not begun the processing of identifying their preferred candidate yet.

Vermont

Much like New Hampshire, quirky Vermont is hard to judge, though it is likely that newly-elected Governor Chris Pearson may hang on to his office for as long as he likes. What will be interesting to watch will be whether or not Patrick Leahy, already the longest-serving Senator in history, sticks around for another six years to become the longest-serving Congressman, ever. If Leahy retires, Vermont Democrats are expected to back Kesha Ram, which could leave the at-large seat open for Pearson, who is said to be interested in Washington. Still, for now, Leahy looks ready to run again and Pearson can get more done in progressive Vermont than the Beltway boiler room.

West Virginia

A fairly easy assessment here - West Virginia's populist Democratic days are long behind it, and the state with the nation's fastest rate of population decline could well lose a second House seat in the 2030 census, having shed an estimated 350,000 people in the last five years, and nearly 400,000 since the last census. The coal industry has practically collapsed, the state has little economy to speak of, and abandoned mountain towns abound.

To their credit, most West Virginians who have not fled the state understand that these are long-term cyclical events and do not blame their incumbent Governor, Evan Jenkins, a well-liked Republican who, in contrast with his neighbor in Kentucky, has not pursued a hard-right agenda and has done a fairly good job of trying to diversify the state's economy, has brought down the government's costs and is still popular within the state. With the Democratic bench all but gone in West Virginia, there is little chance they dig up a challenger able and willing to take Jenkins on. R Hold is likely here.

North Dakota

Governor Drew Wrigley is expected to seek retiring Senator John Hoeven's seat rather than run for a third term. US Rep. Kevin Cramer has been sizing up a run and there is no reason to think he won't be a shoo-in. Democrats don't have an obvious candidate here. R Hold.

Montana

Next door to North Dakota, Republican Tim Fox is term-limited. Fox was broadly popular at the beginning of his term, but like many GOP officeholders across the country, that popularity has slipped, particularly with rural Montana's economy hit extremely hard and budget cuts to the universities that have been driving the state's population growth in places like Missoula and Bozeman. Republicans are already recruiting young, well-regarded US Rep. Collin Tejada to run. On the Democratic side of the ledger, expect State Treasurer Kendall Van Dyk to be the top candidate as SOS Bryce Bennett drops down to run for US House. This should be a Pure Tossup in this famously unpredictable state.

Missouri

Of all of the potential targets on the map for Democrats - and there are a lot, since they lost all seven Gubernatorial races up for reelection this year four years ago - Missouri poses the most perplexing scenario. It is a state that has drifted away from Democrats at the Presidential level, yet they held the Governor's mansion for sixteen straight years with conservative Democrats. It's Senate seat will be a top target next year, and there is talk of making a play for its electoral votes. So why is there only muted talk of challenging Governor Eric Greitens? The simple answer is that Greitens may be one of the most talented politicians in the United States and, even simpler, a good Governor. Missouri is one of the few states that saw job and population growth in the last few years, though it is still likely to lose another seat in 2030. St. Louis is recovering remarkably, and Springfield has seen strong growth recently. Greitens won major points in the black community with his moving and stirring address during the '24 gubernatorial race on the 10 year anniversary of the Ferguson riots.

So why aren't Democrats more committed to defeating him? There is no doubt that he has an eye on a future White House run, likely in 2032. The simple answer is that Greitens - with approval ratings close to 60% in a polarized state - may be the toughest Governor in America to dislodge this cycle. Democrats are still scrambling to find a top-tier candidate and have admitted that they may be unlikely to find one. Scott Sifton is not expected to seek a rematch. Likely R.

North Carolina

A potentially explosive race here, where Patrick McHenry - another Governor using his battleground state as a potential springboard to the White House in future years - will face a tough challenge from State Senator Jeff Jackson, who is zeroing in on a run and is expected to try to replicate the successful "Joint Ticket" of Roy Cooper and Anthony Foxx from 2020 with Don Davis, who is (likely) running against Richard Hudson for the Senate seat. McHenry is not popular in the state and Democrats are licking their chops, hoping for a favorable shot at redistricting control after 2030. Pure Tossup.

Utah

There is nobody who genuinely believes that Sean Reyes won't seek a third term - and that, for that matter, he won't win one. Though some conservatives in the Utah GOP have been frustrated with his administration, the state is growing at a steady clip and Josh Romney seems happy in the Senate. R Hold.

Washington

Steve Litzow is the prototype moderate Republican - he has sworn off ever touching social issues, and outside of vetoing a strict gun control package two years ago, he has enjoyed amicable relations with the narrowly Democratic legislature. With massive Democratic majorities coming to Olympia, veteran observers of Washington politics are curious what Litzow does. Seattle continues to grow and thrive, but many parts of the state - particularly rural counties - are in dire straits, and to his credit, Litzow has tried to address these issues with job programs and targeted investments. Democrats are zeroing in on Attorney General Bob Ferguson to run, with the expectation being that it wouldn't take much to convince the longtime AG - who has held the spot for sixteen years - to make the jump, especially depending on how the economy evolves over the next eight months. Litzow, who broke a forty-year Democratic dynasty in narrowly winning under perfect circumstances in 2024, is in a fight for his life. Lean D.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I'm thinking that Sandoval is badly damaged by a primary challenge from the right and 2028 is a Democratic blowout after which point Republicans realize that they are facing extinction if they don't make a serious effort to rebrand themselves.

[KingSweden]

The 2028 Senate Breakdown

Democrats are feeling downright ambitious about a potentially friendly Senate map next fall - but are their bullish feelings rooted in reality? We take a closer look at every Senate race next year.

In no particular order:

New Hampshire - Chris Sununu (R)

It is not without hyperbole to say that outgoing NRSC Chair Chris Sununu - part of a long and storied Republican dynasty in the Granite State - is the Senate's most endangered Republican. After narrowly beating Donna Soucy in 2022, he is expected to be the DSCC's top target. If the DSCC can recruit US Rep. Jeff Woodburn to run, Sununu probably starts as a mild underdog. Lean D.

Pennsylvania - Open (Joe Sestak Retiring)

Three-term Joe Sestak announced in early December that he would retire after eighteen years in the Senate. Though Democrats should start as light favorites here - especially if conservative US Rep. Scott Perry becomes the Republican choice - the Keystone State is unpredictable, especially with the collapse of the Democratic brand in the state's once-monolithicaly Democratic Southwest. The expected choice of Philly machine will be US Rep. Brendan Boyle, though some Democrats threw water on that idea after noting that the "machine" is starting to decline in power. Likely D.

North Carolina

Senator Richard Hudson is an interesting case - he was a fairly mainstream conservative in the House, when representing a suburban Charlotte district, and has been a mainstream to moderate Senator since 2022, when he unseated Janet Cowell in an ugly race. Hudson has built a massive war chest but faces a Presidential electorate, will share the ballot with an unpopular Governor and is likely facing well-liked Lieutenant Governor Don Davis for the slot. Many Democrats expect NC"s senior Senator Anthony Foxx to seek the Presidency, too, so depending on how that bid goes, Hudson could be sharing the ticket with a favorite son as well. Hudson probably starts as a light favorite against Davis with incumbency, but this is one of the top races of the cycle. Tossup/Lean R.

Georgia

Rob Woodall, a first-term incumbent, was thought of as beyond safe until the stunning, runoff-free double-punch win of Ricky Dobbs and Jason Carter last fall. With Presidential turnout and the eventual Democratic nominee expected to pour massive resources into the Peach State and its competitive suburbs, Woodall suddenly faces a potentially competitive match. Woodall is a consistent conservative but is well-liked throughout the Senate, and it is unclear who Democrats would circle as their preferred candidate - US Reps. Eric Stanton and Dar'Shun Kendrick have both indicated that they are not interested in taking on Woodall. For now, Woodall is a narrow bet, especially with the potential of a runoff in December to bail him out. Likely/Lean R.

Florida

Republicans played with fire in tapping Marco Rubio to run the Senate caucus, considering his state's rapidly shifting demographics, his famously conservative profile and the fact that he's up for election. Democrats have already recruited US Rep. Evan Jenne to leap in and take on Rubio. Rubio's massive warchest and the infrastructure he possesses should make him a narrow favorite, but whoever wins the state in the fall probably carries their party's candidate over the line with them (though that has not always been the case - Democrats tend to outrun their party's candidate by a few percentage points in Florida). Pure Tossup.

Kentucky

Kentucky provided the biggest surprise of the cycle (besides Tennessee) when arch-conservative Jon Shell defeated incumbent Senator Andy Barr and then went on to narrowly lose to Andy Beshear. Democrats are now wondering if they can leverage the considerable unpopularity of Governor Thomas Massie to do the same to inoffensive, fairly anonymous backbencher Brett Guthrie in Rand Paul's old seat. Working against them is the fact that already-announced candidate Adam Edelen is not as good a candidate as Beshear and Guthrie is nowhere near as damaged as Shell was. Likely R.

Missouri

Shane Schoeller will be getting a rematch with former US Senator Jason Kander in the Show-Me State, and Democrats think this could be a prime pickup opportunity. Schoeller would start as a narrow favorite, especially with popular Governor Eric Greitens on the ballot, but Kander has proved that he can win the right-leaning battleground before. Likely R.

Arizona

A fascinating case study of candidates mattering - after Democrats knocked out Ben Quayle in the Gubernatorial race, they are debating whether they can do the same with arch-conservative Senator Doug Ducey, a former Governor himself. Top-tier candidates US Reps. Ruben Gallego and David Schapira are both debating entering the race. Tossup.

Nevada

A big potential target for Democrats is Nevada, home state of President Sandoval. Taking two House seats, the Governorship and legislature in "Sandovaland" last fall was a big feather in the DNC's cap - taking down his protege and close friend Senator Mark Hutchison, and maybe even taking the state's electoral votes, would complete the process. Nevada insiders of both parties expect a competitive race and the general thinking is that US Rep. Reuben Kihuen will be the Democratic nominee. Tossup/Lean D.

Alaska

Senator Lance Pruitt certainly noticed that Democrats took down both Joe Miller and Dan Sullivan three months ago - he also has been preparing for his reelection campaign since the day he was elected, returning to the Last Frontier almost every other weekend and building a massive warchest. Ambitious Democrats should be reminded that they lack candidates of Mark Begich and Chris Tuck's caliber waiting in the wings, and that Pruitt is much more popular than either Miller or Sullivan was. Likely R.

Washington

Patty Murray is retiring after 36 years in the Senate, including several as the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate. As many as four big-name Democrats are expected to seek her seat - former State Rep. Pramila Jayapal, former Seattle Mayor Jessyn Farrell, US Rep. Mark Mullet, and Lieutenant Governor Karen Nelson. Republicans, licking their wounds after last fall, have not settled on a potential candidate and are likely to punt this race to focus on protecting Governor Steve Litzow. Many think Mark Mullet is an early favorite here, with the progressives likely to split up their vote several ways and many moderate Republicans likely to back him. Safe D.

[KingSweden]

(continued)

Colorado

Senate Majority Whip Michael Bennet faces voters for the first time since ascending into leadership. Much of how well he does will depend on how well the Democratic Senate is received two years from now, but Colorado remains one of the few offensive targets for Republicans in a year where they will certainly be playing keep-away. If Cory Gardner can be lured out of the House, this could get interesting - otherwise, expect this to be a dull one. Likely D w/ Gardner, Safe D without.

Iowa

Democrats enjoyed a clean sweep in Iowa last fall, and now control both houses of the legislature and the Governor's mansion for the first time since 2010, and still hold three congressional seats and one Senate seat. It's that second Senate seat that is up in 2028 - the Grassley seat, held now by the young Pat Grassley. His grandfather, Chuck, was considered an untouchable political monument in the state. Democrats argue that Pat is not his grandfather, but several key Iowa operatives admit that the younger Grassley has built a formidable operation and has done nothing to offend the moderate, genial voters who typically make up the difference between the urban areas' liberals and staunchly Republican Western Iowa. In fact, he's in the Megan Jones mold - a Western Iowa Republican who is mainstream enough that he doesn't scare moderates or even many Democrats. Jim Lykam is talking about taking a look at this race, which would surprise many. Grassley starts out as a pretty good favorite, but Iowa will be an intense battleground - it'll be seen if family name can carry the heir apparent. Likely R.

Louisiana

Louisiana is incredibly difficult to predict. Democrat Major Thibaut came close to snatching the other Senate seat away from Garrett Graves last fall, and now that Charles Boustany is retiring, there are a variety of scenarios here in what is sure to be a wild jungle primary. Thibaut will likely be the only Democrat, though some black liberals may balk at his candidacy again, and there is sure to be a clown car on the Republican side. Likely R.

Alabama

After winning a special election and general election within a few months of each other, Martha Roby has been a dutiful backbencher and kept her head down and mouth shut. The goal, clearly, is to avoid doing anything that would give one of the numerous conservative activists in Alabama a reason to primary her. Roby looks to be in good shape for the primary and thus the general in staunchly Republican Alabama. Safe R.

Connecticut

Dick Blumenthal is retiring after 18 years in the Senate, announced just last week but long expected, and former Governor William Tong is expected to be the consensus choice of Democrats with the Congressional delegation fairly young and untested. Unless US Rep. Tim Larson decides to challenge him, Tong - popular with liberals and moderates in the Democratic Party - should cruise in the primary and crush whatever Republican gets put up against him. Safe D.

Kansas

Republicans in Kansas have had some bizarre scares over the years, but have won every Senate race her for nearly a century. 2028 should be no different, as Jerry Moran retires after 18 years in the Senate. US Rep. Garrett Love out of the Big 1st should easily continue the tradition of the 1st's Congressmen heading to the Senate, and the GOP seems to already be coalescing around him to prevent a divisive primary or any of the headaches from last cycle that nearly saw them piss away the Senate seat. Safe R.

Wisconsin

US Senator Ron Kind, only 65, is expected to seek at least one more term. The moderate is a good fit for Wisconsin, but maybe not for his party - the Wisconsin Democratic Party, at least in urban areas, has grown considerably more liberal in the last decade to decade-and-a-half. Kind should avoid a murmured primary challenge though, and Republicans seem to be wavering on who to run against him - the priority, per insiders in Wisconsin, for the GOP is to try to retake lost House seats, and US Rep. Mike Schraa does not seem interested in making the jump to the Senate. Likely D.

Illinois

With Illinois' Republican delegation getting nearly wiped out, the survivors - John Shimkus and Darin LaHood - are expected to stick around and not run from their safe seats. Besides, Cheri Bustos is a hugely popular Democrat well-liked in most of the state, and has been at the forefront of federal assistance for struggling Illinois, particularly downstate areas. There are few Republicans who could make this competitive. Safe D.

Ohio

This state is always competitive, and though Senator Tim Ryan is a terrific fit for the state, he should keep his eye on a Josh Mandel or Jon Husted getting in the race against him. He would be favored in most scenarios, though a Jim Hughes run would make things immediately interesting. Likely D.

Vermont

The only interesting thing here is if Pat Leahy retires or not. Already the longest-serving Senator, Leahy is in good health and shape for his age and is thought to be considering one last term, especially now that he is head of the Judiciary Committee again. Safe D.

Maryland

John Sarbanes is running for reelection. There is little chance he retires quite yet and in Maryland he is utterly safe. Safe D.

Idaho

Safe Republican for whoever runs here, obviously, the only question being if Raul Labrador runs again. There are rumblings he may challenge Brian Sandoval from the right. Safe R, whoever the Republican is.

Oklahoma

James Lankford is running once again, and in America's most conservative state, he is completely Safe R.

Oregon

Though some liberals were frustrated with Senator Brent Barton during his primary campaign in 2022, he has been a good soldier since arriving in the Senate and is unlikely to face much difficult in either the primary or general. Safe D.

California

Eric Garcetti, now climbing the leadership ladder, is totally safe. Safe D.

Utah

Josh Romney has announced his intent to seek reelection as well. While there are grumblings of a primary from more conservative elements of the party, his family's pristine name in the LDS community and the fact that he's an effective, well-liked Senator probably inoculate him from real danger. What'll be interesting to see is if he starts laying the groundwork for a run in 2032 after a win. Safe R.

Hawaii

Brian Schatz will continued to serve as Hawaii's senior Senator for as long as he likes. Safe D.

Arkansas

John Boozman is retiring 18 years after Blanching Blanche Lincoln. Former Governor Tim Griffin is the first choice of Republicans. An open seat is always tantalizing, and Democrats are feeling out Connor Eldridge about another run. In this state, though, Griffin should be favored, and Griffin is much more popular than Tom Cotton. Likely R.

North Dakota

John Hoeven is retiring after 18 years in the Senate. Democrats lack the bench to make this really competitive, and Goveror Drew Wrigley will be formidable. Safe R.

South Dakota

Though John Thune has stepped down as leader of the Republican caucus after ten years, he is expected to seek one last term in the Senate. In this run, he is utterly Safe R.

South Carolina

Tim Scott has already announced he will seek what he pledges is his final term in the Senate. Exceptionally popular with both the grassroots and establishment, and respected by black Democrats, Scott is one of the safest Senators in the country. Safe R.

[j4kor]

this is my favorite timeline

[KingSweden]

Ranking the Potential Democratic Contenders - 2028

Former California Governor Gavin Newsom

Having been term-limited out of office as of this month, Newsom is in the perfect position to do what we've all known he'd be doing since he was elected Governor eight years ago - put the pieces together for a Presidential run fueled by Hollywood liberals and Silicon Valley money. Newsom has provided us a blueprint of what his campaign might look like as he criss-crossed the country raising money for other Democrats, and in his stewardship of the nation's largest state, we have an idea of his vision.

In pursuing socially liberal and environmental causes popular with his donor base, he also switched California to all-mail voting, helped transition numerous state agencies to quicker, more responsive digital platforms, helped speed up HSR construction, poured billions in state funds into mass transit throughout the state, including a massive expansion in Southern California, began the process to moving San Diego's airport to the former Navy airbase at Miramar to free up billions of investable land in downtown San Diego, campaigned for and won a repeal of Prop 13 (long the bane of progressives), rolled out a massive subsidized community college program while drastically reducing in-state tuition for millions of Californians, and radically redrew laws on development, urban growth and environmental lawsuits to speed up the process by which new urban developments are approved and to curtail suburban sprawl. Newsom is arguably the most progressive Democrat to ever run the state and has ushered in more radical change than many Democrats expected when he first ran.

So why is he struggling to excite the base, even in this early stage? Some say it's his "politician" demeanor, with one prominent Democrat going so far as to say that Newsom "seems kinda fake, like an empty suit. Kind of a Patrick Bateman." Others, when polled, pooh-poohed his business-friendly reputation, citing the need for a "fighter for the middle class" when pressed. Others still mentioned that he's the "epitome of a San Francisco liberal" and doubted the ability of the former San Francisco Mayor to make headways in the Midwest, though Iowa's lily-white and liberal voting base may welcome him.

At any rate, Newsom is easily in the top tier of candidates and will be able to raise ungodly amounts of money, as he is expected to have West Coast liberals almost entirely to himself. Do not be surprised by a March or April announcement.

Former Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand

The other big-hitter in this group is Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand, who has been out of office for two years and spent them rebuilding networks of Democrats, particularly in New York. Her work is thought to have paid off in a state where she is still hugely popular as Democrats picked up ten Congressional districts and put Queens Congressman Joe Crowley in the Speaker's chair. With the old Clinton/Heinrich network to lean on and a thousand and one favors to call in from Northeast Democrats, she would be formidable out of the gate quickly.

What would worry many Democrats about a Gillibrand campaign is her struggles outside of her comfort zone. After racking up monster wins her whole career in New York, many Democrats were unimpressed by her campaigning on behalf of the Heinrich ticket in 2024. Though they doubt Heinrich would have won anyways, Gillibrand further did not endear herself to the grassroots when she immediately began consulting for Wall Street banks and was appointed to the boards of JPMorgan and MetLife. With a lucrative consulting (but not lobbying, thankfully for her) career and with young children who are all college-aged and headed to expensive private schools, some doubt she makes the run now. Others have questioned the fire in her belly - unlike Newsom (and some others on this list), she has not made any clear moves and has not been seen in places like Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada. In fact, she made only one campaign appearance in Iowa all last year, at a rally for now-Senator Kyle Orton.

Still, if she were to run, Gillibrand could be potent. She has the highest name recognition in the field (outside of Joe Kennedy), would be able to raise millions of dollars quickly, has massive institutional advantages in the Northeast with an influential Congressional delegation which adores her and a Speaker who thinks highly of her, and she has proven politically adept over the years, pivoting from Blue Dog to progressive darling to White House attack dog seamlessly. Gillibrand would take instantaneous front-runner status along with Newsom if she jumped in.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker

Cory Booker has been waiting his entire political career, patiently, to run for President. Now he has his chance, and he's about to stare down the deepest and most experienced Democratic field that has possibly ever run, with a slate of Governors, Senators and even a former Vice President in the mix. Still, Booker has two unique advantages - he is well-liked in the black community for his focus on issues important to them like sentencing and policing reform, a crucial constituency in a Democratic primary; he is well-liked by the business community for his pro-business progressivism and pragmatism; from New Jersey he can quickly raise millions for a campaign; and as a former Mayor of New Jersey's largest city, he is one of the few Senators to boast both executive and legislative experience.

What may put many progressives off of Booker is that same corporate coziness, constant rumors of ethics issues dogging him, an off-putting ambitiousness he seems to put out, and the fact that he is personally close to many of the most conservative Senators in Congress, including Tim Scott of South Carolina and Ben Sasse of Nebraska. Booker's path to the nomination will most assuredly be one of South Carolina or bust - he spent twenty days in South Carolina last year campaigning for (largely unsuccessful) Democratic candidates but building a network of allies and friends. With Iowa already likely to see a plethora of big-state politicians who don't have ethics problems and New Hampshire being quirky as it is, Booker will likely focus on winning big margins in black-heavy states like South Carolina and Florida early on and hope to carry some momentum into Super Tuesday.

Massachusetts Senator Joseph P. Kennedy III

Teetering at the bottom of the top tier is the Hamlet on the Charles. For close to two years, since the moment he was elected to the Senate, Kennedy has been asked if he will run. For almost as long, he has equivocated, often sounding like he would not jump in but recently sounding warmer to the idea. He would immediately bring one of the most famous last names in American politics to the table - what it is less certain he would bring is anything else.

Since coming to the Senate, Kennedy has been a high-profile critic of Wall Street, corporations, and most prominently, President Sandoval. He has done his best to curry favor with supporters of his predecessor, Elizabeth Warren, and tap into the angrier, younger grassroots component of the Democratic base. However, the time when the romanticism of a Kennedy comeback existed is largely gone outside of a handful of octogenarian boomers longing for the Camelot era - it was almost sixty years ago that his ancestor Robert F. Kennedy made his ill-fated run. Kennedy often seems lost when campaigning for other Democrats and he shares his state with another ambitious politician, Governor Seth Moulton, who holds almost identical views to Kennedy but has a more prominently self-made story. It probably doesn't help Kennedy that he is massively wealthy, one of the wealthiest Democrats in the Senate, and that is run is predicated mostly on his last name.

Many close to Kennedy expressed doubts he'd run, especially as he has five children of various ages and his wife appears to be skeptical of a national campaign. Joe Kennedy faces a choice - embrace his family's unhappy and unfulfilled legacy at the Presidential level, or embrace its legacy pioneered by the Liberal Lion Ted Kennedy, which was a long and fruitful Senate career pursuing progressive causes?

[KingSweden]

Ranking the Potential Democratic Contenders - 2028 (continued)

Massachusetts Governor Seth Moulton

Just outside the absolute top tier of Democrats hovers Seth Moulton. The dynamic between him and Kennedy - who are good friends - will be fascinating to watch for political junkies and massive heartburn for the Massachusetts political establishment, where the old guard "good ol' boy" network of Irish Americans loyal to the Kennedys are sweating the chance that the North Shore's Moulton, popular with a younger, more diverse electorate that has been ascendant in MA politics in the last eight years, will jump in the race first and start an all-out civil war between New England's two biggest political names.

Moulton looks like a dream candidate on paper. A veteran of the Iraq War, a Governor recently elected to his second term, handsome, progressive on issues key to the grassroots but not an ideologue, a man with experience both in the private sector, the legislature and now an executive office - as one New Hampshire Democrat put it, "Seth Moulton could have been built in a lab." He primaried a longtime incumbent in 2014 not for being insufficiently progressive but over issues of honesty and integrity. What worries some about Moulton is his naked ambition and his reputation as something of a mercenary - he is not on friendly terms with the Massachusetts Democratic establishment, whom he has defeated twice in primaries, and core to his political persona is a view that political infrastructure benefits insiders rather than the people, and so he holds many party apparatuses in contempt. This is something that could doom him down the line.

However, there is an even bigger concern - his wife, Samantha, who is sixteen years younger than him and has a reputation of going off script. The same New Hampshire insider mentioned, "Sam Moulton is only 32. She's a former swimsuit model and she's from North Carolina originally. She has not endeared herself to the Massachusetts establishment with her drawl and her social media presence, and she's got a reputation as a bimbo. She would not make the best advocate for Governor Moulton out here in New Hampshire." Nevertheless, a top Massachusetts official close to the Moultons said, "Those who underestimate Sam Moulton do so at their own peril," and Moulton would have a massive, natural advantage in New Hampshire should he run and Kennedy skips. Moulton is expected to make his decision by early April.

North Carolina Senator Anthony Foxx

Another potential candidate who has gotten almost no buzz is Senator Anthony Foxx, who would bring the unique pedigree of being a black Senator from a Southern state. Two things would work against Foxx's favor in a race - Cory Booker is much closer to major black Democratic leaders around the country and would assuredly split the vote, and he does not have the most liberal voting record, a necessity in a swingy state like North Carolina.

Still, North Carolina Democrats think he could make a big showing in neighboring South Carolina and throughout the South as a whole, as he is likely to be the only Southern candidate to make the leap in two years, depending on what Virginia Senator Tom Perriello decides to do. Foxx's tightness with business groups could harm him, as there is no truly populist liberal black candidate to enter the race, but he has experience as a former Mayor and a former Cabinet official that add some serious pedigree to his impressive resume. As a prominent black South Carolina lawmaker familiar with Foxx said, "He will be a seriously big hit down here if he can accept that he'll have to ignore Iowa and New Hampshire - this will be where Anthony Foxx introduces himself to a national audience."

Colorado Senator Jared Polis

Jared Polis would certainly be one of the most unique candidates to run for President if he did decide to enter the fray. Openly gay, from a Western swing state, and a civil libertarian cited as the favorite Democrat of Paulites, he would have a niche ideological profile that could benefit him in caucus states and with younger voters, particularly among white in the ascendant post-millennial generation. Polis would be a huge hit on college campuses and could seriously sap the enthusiasm out of the campaigns of other progressives.

The issue is that few who know Polis think he'll actually run. Polis enjoys his work as a Senator, per sources close to him, and he is acutely aware of the difficulties a gay man would have in being elected President, even in this day and age. He is also one of the wealthiest Democrats in the Senate, having turned his large fortune into nearly half a billion dollars as an early investor in Colorado's legal pot business and its many spinoffs. Though that is one form of capitalism popular with his natural base, Polis may struggle to convince skeptical working-class voters that he "feels their pain" when he's a half-billionaire gay ultra-liberal who still lives in one of the country's most hyper-progressive college towns in Boulder. To his credit, Polis is aware of this, and though a run by him would be a fascinating experiment, it is unlikely to end up with a nomination.

Senator Tom Perriello

Another hero of the grassroots, Perriello has proven - twice - that you can win a Southern state as a bold progressive, and he has worked his way up the Senate leadership ladder as a result. With Amy Klobuchar, Mike Bennet and Chris Murphy likely to stick around for a while, Perriello is reportedly feeling out Beltway operatives about a Virginia-based Presidential run. The state is a crucial component of the Democratic map and Perriello thinks he can succeed where other top-tier Democrats will likely fail - tapping into the seething grassroots anger that powered Democrats to their national tsunami win last fall.

Perriello faces a core problem - he is virtually anonymous outside of his home state, even after campaigning heavily in New Hampshire, Iowa and Florida for Democratic candidates. He is well-liked by his colleagues but many feel he wears his ambitions on his sleeve. Perriello also fails the "old white guy" test - unlike, say, Joe Kennedy or Seth Moulton, he doesn't bring much to the table that makes him unique in a diverse, multicultural party where many in the base are skeptical of nominating white men for President, as was seen by the muted enthusiasm for a second term of President Martin Heinrich. At this stage, it is more likely than not that Perriello runs. How far he can get is another matter altogether.

[KingSweden]

Super Bowl LXI

After winning three straight road games, the 6th-seeded Washington Redskins, led by polarizing rookie quarterback Mark Maxwell, faces the No. 3 seeded AFC team, the Indianapolis Colts in what is likely quarterback Andrew Luck's final game. The Colts demolish Washington, winning 37-7 in a rout where they lead 31-0 at halftime. Luck passes for 271 yards, three touchdowns and an interception to tie Tom Brady and Joe Montana with three Super Bowl MVP awards and announces his retirement a few days after the game.

[KingSweden]

The Big Three - Elections That Will Shape US Foreign Policy for Years to Come

2027 features three elections in short order that will, for decades, effect American foreign policy for what could be close to a decade. Though President Sandoval and his team are unlikely to make it publicly known who they would prefer to win in any of them, there is no doubt what they want in these unstable times - predictability.

France

First on the docket is France, which in April will hold the first round of its most unpredictable Presidential election in decades. Francois Fillon is term-limited after a decade at the Elysee Palace. Complicating things is the fact that this will be a four-man (or woman) race, but Fillon is the wild card himself. Five years ago, Fillon was one of the most popular leaders in French history and former President Sarkozy referred to him as "the French Reagan." Now, in the twilight of his Presidency, Fillon has sub-30% approvals as the French economy has ground to a halt, as the banlieus burn with several riots during 2026 and labor riots turning the country against the establishment.

Predictably, neither the Republicans nor the Socialists have any real options to face the violence and mass unemployment, which is nearing 20% and is close to 50% for those aged under 35. Edith Oulavard, the 41-year old Socialist nominee, has run an abysmal campaign designed to pander to entrenched labor unions, or as Fillon calls them, "the riot-creators." Oulavard gave a speech in late January in which she stated, "Private capital is a blight upon France and we should consider its unilateral confiscation in extreme cases." The Republicans' candidate is not much better - Laurent Wauquiez became the front-runner at a time when Fillon was popular and his hard line on the summer's riots is seen as a cynical attempt to tack right.

It is on the right where many France-watchers are concerned that there might at last be success for the FN. Marine Le Pen, surviving a feud with her niece this summer, is riding high, leading first-round polls in many cases. FN supporters have spent much of the winter campaign staging massive rallies, attacking supporters of other parties and promising "revolution" - the only problem is that they are unlikely to encounter a friendly Parliament.

The big wild card in France will be Emmanuel Macron, running as an independent. Despite being an insider, he has been out of politics for ten years and is seen as clean. He presents a concise, center-left vision rather than a radical one, and with the Republicans being viewed as a cynical group of elites who are pandering to voters they do not understand, but expect to be voted for anyways. Ten months ago, when Macron announced he was going to explore a Presidential run, he was thought foolish. Today, he could place ahead of Wauquiez.

There is no doubt that White House officials will hope for Macron, even if he sits slightly left of center. Wauquiez's dry, dull campaign could risk a loss against the dangerous Le Pen and Oulavard is completely unelectable.

United Kingdom

Brian Sandoval has been known to remark in private settings that "Sajid Javid is my political brother-in-law." Javid has been referred to as "the Tony Blair to Sandoval's Bill Clinton." They like each other, share similar ideological profiles as reformist conservatives uninterested in populist pandering or social policy, and have both become toxically unpopular with their party's bases.

If the United Kingdom used proportional representation, Javid would be heading towards a landslide defeat in May. The centrist, left-liberal Alliance for Britain leads by between ten to fifteen points in many (notoriously unreliable) polls and Jim McMahon is said to be measuring the drapes at 10 Downing Street. But since the UK uses FPTP, the hard-left Social Democrats could play spoiler in several districts and cause a hung Parliament in a country without a tradition of minority governments. His other hope is that the SNP prevents the Alliance from gaining many seats in Scotland, where the SNP's high-unemployment rule has started to grate. SNP strategists are playing into Javid's hands with the campaign emphasizing that an Alliance-led Britain would forego Scottish independence.

Still, the likeliest option is a narrow Alliance majority or a massive Alliance minority, with the SNP or Social Democrats backing government. It is unlikely the Tories, after such an ugly campaign (which promises to get uglier), are invited to join any kind of coalition, which the pragmatic McMahon believes would enrage many of his supporters.

Canada

Canada's election is not until October, but there could be a massive upheaval in the meantime. All three major Canadian parties, including the ruling NDP, are polling roughly even in the high 20s. The Tories, under young prodigy leader Ryan McKenzie (f), aged 41, have run a tremendously disciplined campaign, but their appeal among voters under 40 is limited. The real campaign is expected to be between the Liberals and NDP, as the Liberals have turned around under Leah Van Houten, aiming to become the first woman elected as Prime Minister in her own right and would be one of the youngest Prime Ministers ever elected.

The NDP is worried that Nathan Cullen, who has led the caucus brilliantly for close to a decade, may be at the end of his shelf life. Cullen has retooled his Cabinet twice since winning the majority in February of 2023, but now there is buzz in Ottawa that Cullen will step down after four years as Prime Minister. NDP leaders are starting to coalesce around Ruth Ellen Brosseau. Only 42, she matches Van Houten and McKenzie in age and would capture the promise of being a woman Prime Minister. Brosseau would also likely earn the NDP a brief bump in the polls, perhaps one long enough to earn them a likely minority government.

The Canadian election will be a jump ball, likely for the next ten months until it is held. Nobody in Canada has any idea how it will end - with proportional representation now the law of the land for the first time, it could radically change the composition of the next Parliament.

[KingSweden]

A New Challenge for President Sandoval?

Nothing has sent chills down the spine of administration advisers at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue or the loose brain trust of donors, consultants and strategists in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Dallas plotting out Brian Sandoval's potential reelection campaign than the idea of a primary challenge from the right. Outgoing Chief of Staff Steve Hill, according to one source, began planning steps to prevent a primary challenge as early as February of 2025, mere weeks after inauguration, and this effort has gone into overdrive since the summer and reached warp speed after the November bloodbath.

Simply put, Brian Sandoval - by all accounts a man of conservative instincts who has committed few real heresies in an administration now most famous for passing the most austere budget in American history - has for reasons of temperament and his positions on hot-button social issues alienated much of the white working class voters who make up the Republican base. The "Austerity Budget" affected many such voters and it was their white-hot anger in town halls that led Sandoval to scrapping his planned tax overhaul, leaving him between a rock and a hard place politically despite the deficit shrinking dramatically.

This fateful decision - to approach the spending and revenue portions of the federal budget separately, against the advice of many advisers and to the chagrin of many donors expecting marginal tax rate cuts - puts Sandoval in his current predicament. He has cut spending at a level that has turned off many voters, whose support he needs, while enraging his wealthy donors by not delivering the tax cuts they were promised, cutting off a potential source of money. With the most liberal Congress in history now sitting down the street and likely to be hostile to his spending priorities, the ship sailed long ago for Sandoval to deliver to either half of the Republican Party what they want.

The bigger issue, according to GOP insiders with a pulse on the base, is that many voters held their noses over voting for a moderate, pro-choice Hispanic from Nevada with the expectation that Congress, rather than the White House, would produce massive conservative reform. The issue there is that Congress rapidly went to war with itself and "massive conservative reform" means different things to different people. Appointing ideologically opaque "squishes" like Erin Murphy to the Supreme Court didn't help Sandoval with social conservatives, who have never trusted him, and working class voters have borne the brunt of austerity and the collapsing economy without getting any bones thrown their way.

"The President is meeting with gay groups, he's not fighting against abortion," a prominent conservative donor said off the record. "He's still talking about immigration in a way that a lot of people don't like. They've never felt he's one of them, and then he goes and does what the wealthy on Wall Street want and does nothing for the voters who delivered him." Most of all, Sandoval's laid-back, low-key demeanor and genuine governing nature makes him anathema to voters who desire a warrior, a champion of conservative causes who won't bow to anyone. That is not, and never has been, Brian Edward Sandoval.

So who would take on the massive undertaking of challenging a wounded President badly out of sync with his party? The name on the lips of many conservatives is Tom Cotton, who was runner-up to Sandoval in 2024 and is a noted fundraiser. However, Cotton is fundamentally a hawk - his position on many domestic issues, while conservative, are hardly hard-right, and his temperament is low-key. Many GOP insiders also doubt that Cotton, who is a young 49 and is seen as tremendously keen on one day becoming President, would risk his career on a quixotic bid to take down an incumbent and wound the party going into a general election. The same goes for the similarly aged Governor George P. Bush of Texas - Bush is as insider-establishment as they come despite his conservative rhetoric and the Bush family has aligned itself with Sandoval.

That leaves a constellation of potential candidates with lower name recognition. Out of the 2024 pack, sources believe the only viable candidate there would be Mick Mulvaney - however, having recently lost his Senatorial bid against Lindsey Graham, Mulvaney is largely yesterday's news and ran a bad campaign last time. Most GOP officials doubt Senator Ben Sasse would run again, considering that his run was designed to make a point about the Goodwin Liu nomination battle and that he has become quite close with the White House since then. Raul Labrador, meanwhile, could appeal to the last remnants of the Paulite movement, but few think he's gearing up for another campaign.

Who, then? There are a number of Congressmen who could make the jump, but the name that worries most Republicans is that of Ted Cruz, head of the Conservative Action Network. The 2016 Republican nominee was embarrassed in his primary loss to Senator Peggy Bartlett three years ago but has amassed an impressive following with a daily radio show and podcast and with CAN, which he helped co-found in the cold wintry days between his departure from the Senate and Sandoval's inauguration, has become a massive thorn in the side of Republican leaders.

"He has the name recognition, the financial muscle and the ego to make another run," sighed a senior RNC official. "He wouldn't beat the President, but he'd severely damage him. And if Ted were to sneak through, we'd be looking at Goldwater Part Two."

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I figured we haven't heard the last of Cruz.

[Mike Thick]

I figured we haven't heard the last of Cruz.

When I saw your signature, I realized that there's something of a Pat Buchanan parallel here.

[KingSweden]

Feb 2027: Brian Sandoval delivers his State of the Union address. Some highlights:

"To my left sits Mr. Joseph Crowley, a man I hold in very high esteem. I want to congratulate him on his big night last fall and I want to say that we will work together closely over the next two years to solve our nation's problems."

"Right now in Russia there is tremendous suffering and turmoil. Across Europe, extremists of both the right and of the left are advancing to tear the European project apart. Here in America, too few have work, too many pay too much for basic necessities and too many businesses have shut their doors. But while it may seem that the world burns around us, know this - the state of our union is strong, and the state of our resolve will never weaken."

"This year I will work with Speaker Crowley and the leaders of the Senate to pass reforms that I believe will benefit our country. I will listen to them, and I hope they will listen to me in return. It is only through working together that our issues will be solved, not by running to the news cameras."

Another 140,000 jobs were lost in January and GDP numbers for Q4 now show a -0.6 contraction. Buzz around potential Democratic - and maybe Republican challengers - for 2028 start to percolate after news of a "ride in the mountains" over Christmas between Brian Sandoval and his son James where they discussed the family's future.

Feb 2027 (continued): Massive riots in much of southern Sweden, Vienna, Munich and France over unemployment, immigration and a lack of heating oil during a particularly cold month in Europe. Le Pen continues to lead first-round polls in France. Belgium's government sets an in-out referendum for early June. Russian leadership begins to discuss a transition to a unity government after nearly three years of war. In Canada, Nate Cullen surprises many by announcing his intention to step down prior to the election pending the appointment of a new NDP leader. The NDP leadership election is set for late April, one of the shortest campaigns in Canadian history.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Era of a New Majority lives!
Nice new material, KingSweden. I'm on the edge of my seat.

[KingSweden]

Does Sandoval Even Want to Be President?

The question that has begun swirling around Washington over the last few weeks ever since the rumor of Brian Sandoval taking a "ride in the mountains" over Christmas with his son James is that the President is debating whether or not to seek reelection. Since almost day one of his Presidency, there has been an operation in place, run discreetly by men like Steve Hill and '24 deputy campaign manager John Bell, designed to elect Brian Sandoval to a second term.

Based on body language, out-of-context quotes and the theory that the "ride in the mountains" was a father and son discussion of whether it was worth it to extend this difficult, trying job an extra four years on top of the two already served, many Republicans are now worried that Sandoval will choose to walk away.

"I mean, why wouldn't he? He's tried to govern and been sabotaged by his own party. He's tried to reach out to Democrats and they've gleefully turned their noses at him," said former US Senator Lamar Alexander, a major Sandoval backer who campaigned for him throughout the South during the primaries three years ago. "His biggest successes have been in foreign policy and trying to earn Puerto Rico statehood. He's a good man, and I think the country knows that he's a good man, but I'm starting to think many people see him as the right man at the wrong time."

That is the consensus among some Democrats who like Sandoval personally, too. "I think he passed the Austerity Budget to keep his party whole," hypothesizes former Speaker of the House Xavier Becerra, now the Mayor of Los Angeles and a man who knows Sandoval fairly well from their time together in DC and their time working on projects in the LA region last year. "I don't think he wanted a budget that harsh and I think he underestimated how against it many Republican base voters were in practice."

If anything, Sandoval's Presidency has finally exposed the daunting rift between the priorities of the white-collar and blue-collar segments of the GOP base, and particularly exposed the massive disconnect between those segments of the base and its Beltway class. Alexander laments that many voters expected Sandoval to "understand our anger and do something about it" once in office, and that he hasn't. Alexander adds that, "The problem there is that the anger felt out among many of those voters, especially in the South, is so symbolic - there aren't really specific things, at least in this day and age, that you can do to turn back the clock the way many of them probably want."

Even if reelected, GOP leaders doubt they can flip the 48 seats necessary to retake the House. 2026, to many of them, felt like a realigning election in a different way, a landslide loss with an electorate and map that should have favored them. Even if they win the court case in Tennessee giving them 49 seats in the Senate, the Senate map looks favorable to Democrats and they could increase their advantage even in the case of a likely narrow Sandoval win.

"So what would he achieve? He would be facing a hostile Congress for four years and conservatives would get even angrier that they can't achieve everything they want," a Congressional aide said off the record.

In the face of that, and due to his fractured relationship with the party, some wonder if Sandoval won't just announce that he will not seek reelection later this spring and allow a true primary to debate the future of the party to emerge. In any case, the prospect does not delight many Republicans.

"Without the benefits of incumbency, we'd be headed to a bloodbath," a senior Republican strategist groused. "What many in the base just won't accept is that this is a changing and changed country now. The Millennials are in their forties and late thirties now, and the voters younger than them are even more liberal. The kind of conservative revolution they think they can achieve is just not sustainable in the late 2020s, especially not now. Brian Sandoval is the first Republican candidate in a generation to speak to these voters and earn their trust, and the Congress forced him to break it. He can regain it, I think, but I don't see who else can. If he doesn't run... we're screwed."

[KingSweden]

Inside the Race for NDP Leadership

One of the shortest leadership campaigns in Canadian history is coming soon, after Nathan Cullen announced on February 20th that he would be stepping down a few days shy of having served as Prime Minister for four years. He will continue to serve until the leadership election, scheduled tentatively for late April or early May.

With less than three months to go, it will be considerably shorter than the often yearlong odysseys of prior leadership campaigns. In many cases, those are called shortly after a general election, rather than eight months earlier, and become debates about the long-term direction of the party.

This cannot be the case here, though based on Cullen's remarks in Ottawa yesterday, they probably should be. "This leadership election will earn the attention of Canada and become a place where we can debate between our candidates the vision we hold for our great country and a venue for bold new ideas."

Many Dippers privately expressed frustration that Cullen waited this long to see the light - serious calls for him to step down after a decade leading the caucus first as a third party, then as Official Opposition and finally as PM began as early as September and became serious in late October as Canada's recession deepened. The problem is that Cullen, for good reason, still believes that he is the best-equipped man to lead the party. He has led it from humiliation in 2015 to triumph in 2023, and is experienced on Parliament Hill. He is the party's first Prime Minister and in the victorious glow of '23 guided through major social democratic reforms.

One issue for Dippers, and progressives around the world, is a tendency to go with their heart rather than their head. Cullen is the ultimate head candidate - smart, self-aware, and at this point chin-deep in experience. But a big chunk of the NDP's Parliamentary caucus and its voter base still dreams of the inspiring Jack Layton. It is perhaps unfair to Cullen, who is not significantly right of Layton - his agenda and achievements most definitely place him to the left of his predecessor Thomas Mulcair - but that is the pulse of the restless NDP caucus and base.

"It's time for change," an unidentified NDP backbench MP expressed. "Even several Cabinet members off the record think so. I like Nate, I think he's done a tremendous job growing the party - but now it's time to do more than grow the party."

They may not be wrong. The NDP is the most popular political party in Canada but Cullen is the most unpopular leader and scores last out of the major leaders - him, Tory Ryan McKenzie and Grit Leah Van Houten - on who would be the best Prime Minister. The kidnapping and murder of four Canadians in Syria last year brought up major questions on his foreign policy chops, boosting the resurgent Tories. Cullen seems to understand, perhaps a bit late, that for the good of the party, he may have to retire.

The election to replace him has already attracted two big-name candidates, both from Quebec. Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the young but much-beloved Minister of Families, Children and Social Development, is the progressive wing of the base's favorite. Once dismissed as the "Barbie" candidate nearly twenty years ago in the surprise Orange Crush, she has since become a savvy Ottawa insider with a number of portfolios under her belt. What concerns some senior Dippers is that she has never held any crucial Ministries like Justice, Trade or Defense, which are typically stepping-stones to the Premiership. Her status as a longtime single mother and her unabashed progressivism would excite a large number of young voters, though.

The other major candidate is Pierre Ducasse, Premier of Quebec. This leadership election does not affect Ducasse much - the Quebec NDP is already in the process of replacing him, with a poll to be held in early April. Perfect timing for him to step down, then. Ducasse - who ran for leadership of the federal NDP over twenty years ago - was a crucial component in the national NDP machine after turning Quebec into a NDP lock at the provincial level with three landslide elections there and helped recruit and build out the infrastructure that earned the NDP big results in 2021 and 2023. He is no less an unabashed social democrat - in fact, he may even be to Brosseau's left - and he has the experience of running a large province. What may ding him, however, is his own sliding popularity in the province as its economy, particularly outside of Montreal, continues to atrophy.

Ducasse vs. Brosseau would be a tremendous race battling a pragmatic social democracy against identity politics idealism. Ducasse would most certainly have the experience to serve as Prime Minister, but Brosseau's natural political charms would probably lend her better to what is sure to be a grueling fall campaign. Whoever wins would have to rapidly pivot from the May leadership race to win the October election, with a writ drop likely in early September.

There are some potential spoilers. Omar Hamdan, a 36-year old Arab-Canadian MP from Toronto, is considering entering. A backbencher only first elected in 2023, he would be a massive underdog but could plausibly run as an outsider. He would most certainly be hit on his devout Islamic faith in a fairly secular party, but Hamdan is a pragmatic and instinctive politician who would likely run on maximizing ethnic minority turnout, a place where Dippers are concerned about improving Liberal and Conservative numbers. Another potential spoiler is political outsider Nick Kristapoulous, head of the massive Unifor trade union. Though Kristapoulous is naturally close to many senior NDP figures, his run would be a brazenly left-wing, ultra-socialist run. He has little chance of winning the NDP leadership, but if he did, many NDP leaders are worried he would rapidly hand the election to the Tories or Grits.

An exciting, compressed two-month election awaits. The future of the NDP, and Canada, likely hangs in the balance.