Era of the New Majority

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

TN-2 bawss pls

[YPestis25]

MO-2nd please!

I'm loving this timeline.

[KingSweden]

NC-07 (Wilmington/Southern coastal area) would be cool too

I'll check and see if it's still numbered NC-07 after 2020 redistricting.

[Captain Chaos]

NY-1

[KingSweden]

CD Snapshot - This Week: Missouri's 2nd

Suburban districts like the St. Louis County-based MO-2 have in recent years become ground zero in House battles - it was in places like this that Democrats dominated up and down the ballot last fall on their way to a historic midterm landslide. But here in the St. Louis suburbs, things were quieter as Michael Talent, Republican, won a fifth term at only the age of 36 by w 53-46 margin.

"There were some struggles at first," says Talent, the son of former US Senator Jim Talent, who served as the Congressman for this same area in the 1990s. "We had some polls showing a tight race initially and some concerns, but it worked out in the end."

Part of that "working out" part can be traced to Talent's name recognition in a state long dominated by familial dynasties - the Carnahans, the Blunts, the Danforths, and the Ashcrofts. It helps that while Metro St. Louis suffers from unemployment and uncertainty like many metro areas, Missouri has emerged as a logistics and corporate headquarters hub in the last decade. In an election shaped by anger and frustration with current affairs, St. Louis county is actually doing okay.

Democrats think their candidate, State Rep. Jason DeLean, dropped the ball by not trying to flip independents in a fairly old, conservative district. Some Democrats also think that Talent, a relative moderate, is simply a good fit for this right-leaning district. It helps that he voted against the reviled Austerity Budget.

"It makes him independent," said local construction worker Dave Free, who is active in local politics and refers to these suburbs as "Greitens Country." This is ground zero for the very popular - and fairly moderate - Governor Eric Greitens, and these suburbs are the base of his wing of the party.

As cranes dot the leafy skyline of the STL suburbs, men like Free are excited. There is for the first time in decades real enthusiasm in this area. The city is growing slowly and the county is growing at a steady, sustainable clip.

"You know, things are changing," Free stated. "Greitens speaking in Ferguson three years ago during the anniversary has helped heal a lot of wounds. There's a sense of community here we haven't had. Things still aren't perfect but we all are less divided."

Looking ahead to next year - especially with the risk of a deflated GOP candidate at the top of the ballot - locals think the 2nd could be a crucial battleground. Talent is already fundraising more actively than anyone in the Missouri delegation lest Democrats roll out a stronger candidate, and there will be both a Senate election for Shane Schoeller along with Greitens' campaign, interpreted by many as his victory lap to put him in position for 2032.

"There's gonna be a lot of action here next year," Talent predicts. "Missouri will be affected by what happens in the 2nd."

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

NC-09!

[Mike Thick]

What's currently (OTL) CA-26, please!

[KingSweden]

What's currently (OTL) CA-26, please!

CD Snapshot - This Week: CA-26

The Ventura County Line rumbles into the station, packed to the brim with commuters. Surrounding the station are ten to twelve story apartment blocks, restaurants and little independent shops. This is the new Ventura - a booming, transit-oriented bedroom community in its own right at the edge of Greater Los Angeles.

The county has emerged as a crucial swing area in recent years, belying its Democratic registration advantage. Brian Sandoval narrowly carried it in 2024, while Gavin Newsom ran up crucial margins here in both of his campaigns. Last year, the district was thought of as a key battleground as longtime Rep. Julia Brownley retired and SOS Matt Dababneh moved in to run for the open seat. His opponents called him a carpetbagger and hit him from the left - nevertheless, in a swingy district, the centrist Dababneh went on to win decisively in first the primary and the fall Top Two.

"People here are laid back, they just want efficient, reliable representation," Dababneh, who won two decisive majorities statewide. "These are suburban voters who care about schools, transit and quality of life."

Indeed, Ventura County - which forms the nucleus of the 26th - is one of California's fastest growing areas. Young families priced out of Los Angeles and loathe to live in the San Bernardino Valley are flocking to the beach access and booming subdivisions here. Some boosters imagine that the influx of people here will make Ventura the new "it spot" in Greater Los Angeles.

[Mike Thick]

What's currently (OTL) CA-26, please!

CD Snapshot - This Week: CA-26

The Ventura County Line rumbles into the station, packed to the brim with commuters. Surrounding the station are ten to twelve story apartment blocks, restaurants and little independent shops. This is the new Ventura - a booming, transit-oriented bedroom community in its own right at the edge of Greater Los Angeles.

The county has emerged as a crucial swing area in recent years, belying its Democratic registration advantage. Brian Sandoval narrowly carried it in 2024, while Gavin Newsom ran up crucial margins here in both of his campaigns. Last year, the district was thought of as a key battleground as longtime Rep. Julia Brownley retired and SOS Matt Dababneh moved in to run for the open seat. His opponents called him a carpetbagger and hit him from the left - nevertheless, in a swingy district, the centrist Dababneh went on to win decisively in first the primary and the fall Top Two.

"People here are laid back, they just want efficient, reliable representation," Dababneh, who won two decisive majorities statewide. "These are suburban voters who care about schools, transit and quality of life."

Indeed, Ventura County - which forms the nucleus of the 26th - is one of California's fastest growing areas. Young families priced out of Los Angeles and loathe to live in the San Bernardino Valley are flocking to the beach access and booming subdivisions here. Some boosters imagine that the influx of people here will make Ventura the new "it spot" in Greater Los Angeles.

[bagelman]

It looks like you created the district maps for 2022-2032 before 2015's issue 1 passed in Ohio, requiring fair districts.

Out of the gerrymandered districts, OH-10 and OH-15 are the most personally interesting to me. You can choose one of those two that's most politically interesting. 

[KingSweden]

It looks like you created the district maps for 2022-2032 before 2015's issue 1 passed in Ohio, requiring fair districts.

Out of the gerrymandered districts, OH-10 and OH-15 are the most personally interesting to me. You can choose one of those two that's most politically interesting. 

I'll refresh myself with my map, it's been a while. The district updates are developed based on how quickly I can research a district/think of my prediction for the area.

[Asian Nazi]

What's currently (OTL) CA-26, please!

CD Snapshot - This Week: CA-26

The Ventura County Line rumbles into the station, packed to the brim with commuters. Surrounding the station are ten to twelve story apartment blocks, restaurants and little independent shops. This is the new Ventura - a booming, transit-oriented bedroom community in its own right at the edge of Greater Los Angeles.

The county has emerged as a crucial swing area in recent years, belying its Democratic registration advantage. Brian Sandoval narrowly carried it in 2024, while Gavin Newsom ran up crucial margins here in both of his campaigns. Last year, the district was thought of as a key battleground as longtime Rep. Julia Brownley retired and SOS Matt Dababneh moved in to run for the open seat. His opponents called him a carpetbagger and hit him from the left - nevertheless, in a swingy district, the centrist Dababneh went on to win decisively in first the primary and the fall Top Two.

"People here are laid back, they just want efficient, reliable representation," Dababneh, who won two decisive majorities statewide. "These are suburban voters who care about schools, transit and quality of life."

Indeed, Ventura County - which forms the nucleus of the 26th - is one of California's fastest growing areas. Young families priced out of Los Angeles and loathe to live in the San Bernardino Valley are flocking to the beach access and booming subdivisions here. Some boosters imagine that the influx of people here will make Ventura the new "it spot" in Greater Los Angeles.

God, as someone who has been to and loved Ventura, the idea of it being turned into an ugly LA bedroom community is horrifying. :/

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

What about Florida's (at least as of today) 18th district?

[KingSweden]

September 2027: A massive heatwave continues to roil the country, and at the middle of the month the monster Cat 5 Hurricane Jeremy hits northern Florida, devastating Jacksonville, causing massive flooding and property damage along the upper coast and causing considerable storm damage across the northern panhandle, southern Georgia and Alabama. Massive rain inundates and shuts down the Atlanta area, too. President Sandoval declares a state of emergency - FEMA's rapid response earns the President accolades.

The bizarre battle between Cory Booker and Mandela Barnes heats up as protesters dog the campaigns of both candidates. A report emerges that Booker was pressured into the race by New York power brokers worried about the flailing Gillibrand and that Barnes was roped into the race as part of a "Stop Booker" movement of black progressives. All the while, Newsom, Foxx and Moulton continue to pull away.

A bombshell near the end of the month: Vice President Stapleton announces he will resign effective October 31st to run for Colorado's Senate seat rather than lame duck for another year and a half. The announcement comes as a massive shock, and it is reported that Stapleton, whose relationship with Sandoval has deteriorated since the President decided not to seek reelection, did not run his decision by Sandoval. A noticeably peeved Sandoval testily answers during a press conference, "Walker's gotta do what he's gotta do." The announcement rockets the Colorado Senate race up the board as a sitting Vice President decides to run for Senate, a historic decision. Washington swirls with speculation as to who Sandoval could convince to join his administration, with an announcement expected by early October.

September 2027 (continued): Protests and violence continue to roil Europe. The Frank government teeters on the brink of collapse as the German recession deepens. Russian unity government forces seize several of the last rebel positions and make their advance into the Central Asian Republic. Massive protests fell the regional governments of two major Chinese cities as Hu Chunhua unilaterally fires the leaders there and installs new ones to combat the rapidly-spreading Cambodian flu. Cases of Cambodian flu start to pop up in Russia, besieged by fighting, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. The Korean Presidential election campaign to replace Park Won-soon gets ugly as the candidates start to refer to each other as "a threat to the Republic."

[YPestis25]

Thanks for the write-up KingSweden! This timeline continues to be one of my favorites.

[KingSweden]

CD Snapshot - Tennessee's 2nd District

Rolling hills and small towns abound in Eastern Tennessee, right in the foothills - and sometimes true hills - of the Appalachians and Great Smoky Mountains. Nestled in the heart of the mountain lowlands is Knoxville, one of the Tennessee's fastest-growing cities. Knoxville is a center of Appalachian culture, a center of higher education as the home of the University of Tennessee, the headquarters of the TVA and, increasingly, Tennessee's main tech hub.

As the Nashville property bubble burst a few years ago and Memphis continues to stagnate, the growth and attention in the Volunteer State has turned east, to the manufacturing center of Chattanooga and the diverse Knoxville metro. Two men are credited with much of this growth in the state's mountainous, long-Republican east - former Senator and Governor Bob Corker, who stepped down late last year as Secretary of State to focus on beating his battle with cancer, and current senior US Senator Bill Haslam, himself a former Governor.

These two men are the titans of modern Tennessee Republicanism - and the young man now in the seat is already being groomed to be next.

It is no secret that the Haslam-Corker "machine," as it is informally called, dislikes US Reps. Ryan Williams and Brian Kelsey and wants to keep them away from either the Governor's Mansion or the state's other Senate seat, now both held by Democrats after a stunningly abysmal year in Tennessee. The bright spot was young Kyle Agnew, aged 31, a former Haslam staffer and UT student body president.

Agnew - young, blonde, handsome and sporting several tattoos - seems an odd Republican. He rides around Knoxville on a bicycle, used to rock a thick beard before hopping into the campaign, and extols the virtue of craft beer. Yet he also carries a pocket Bible with him everywhere he goes and talks about how crucial it is "to have a government that works for the people."

Asked about those already talking about him as a future Governor or Senator, Agnew laughs it off. "I haven't been doing this long enough to talk about that. I have a pretty good job right now."

And, indeed, he lives in a pretty good place. Knoxville has been twice rated as the Best Place to Raise a Family and UT has skyrocketed up the national college rankings. Investments by the state in the region are paying off and Knoxville doubled the size of its transit network last year. But just because of a swarm of young families has moved in doesn't mean that the 2nd is getting less Republican.

Agnew, indeed, represents the speartip of a trend seen across the country as young, Millennial Republicans are elected. From Alabama's AJ McCarron to New Mexico's Trudy Ramirez, to the granddaddy of the House Millennial Caucus - Kentucky's Dakota Meyer, already his delegation's dean at only 39 - in GOP-leaning districts, the up-and-coming members are less conservative, but not necessarily less Republican. It's people like Congressman Agnew who are most disappointed that President Sandoval decided to drop out.

"I love the President," Agnew insists. "The people who were threatening him, trying to kneecap him, they're just sour grapes."

The 2nd represents, then, an important battleground in the future of the GOP. As always, generational and ideological battles about the nature and future of conservatism - what it means, who it should benefit, who gets to be a part of it - are raging within the Republican Party, conservatism's great vessel for well over a hundred years. Agnew, a supporter of gay marriage and limited abortion rights, may as well be the focal point.

[KingSweden]

October 2027: President Sandoval surprises many when he announces fairly rapidly that he will appoint Attorney General James Comey - a former FBI Director - as his next Vice President. Rumors emerge from the White House that Comey was the choice over Shelley Moore Capito and Bill Haslam, all older Republicans without their own White House ambitions who could serve out the term as a retirement capstone. Despite the delusional dreams that he might pick a Democrat, Sandoval goes with a pretty low-key choice. Crowley and Klobuchar hold hearings with Comey that are effectively fast-tracked, with Comey praised for the integrity with which he has run the Justice Department - a big reason he was picked by Sandoval in the first place. Comey is sworn in on October 31st as Stapleton officially resigns and returns to Colorado. Quarterly estimates suggest the US is back in recession after a semi-decent start to the year. Former Senators Jim Inhofe and Dick Durbin, two very different men, pass away within days of each other.

In the Presidential race, the battle between hawkish Cotton and SoCon Cruz heats up with ugly campaign spats and outside spending groups painting Cruz as an obsessive reactionary and Cotton as a warmonger, with Sasse still hovering behind them and Ryan sucking up all of the establishment support Kean needs to make a mark on the race. On the Democratic side, Booker and Barnes continue to slide in the polls down to Lori Swanson's level. Swanson, who is camped out entirely in Iowa, starts to debate dropping out of the race as leads are traded between Moulton and Newsom in the state. Gillibrand starts to atrophy campaign staff as her campaign flounders into a slow-moving disaster.

October 2027 (continued): The Cambodian flu starts to wreak havoc across sub-Saharan Africa, with hundreds of thousands of cases reported within weeks. The death toll continues to inch closer to one million worldwide and the first cases are reported in South America and Mexico. Calls to close borders grow louder worldwide. Chinese and Japanese equity markets collapse as Q3 growth targets are widely missed and China enters its first recession in decades after two quarters of negative growth, dragging much of the world down with it. Two divisions of Russian soldiers go AWOL after the unity government fails to pay them, and a band of marauding renegade Russian militiamen wreak havoc in Belarus before they are all captured or killed. Chancellor Frank in Germany calls a confidence vote in the Bundestag, an unprecedented move.

And now, for Sports!: This time on "God Hates Cleveland," the Cleveland Indians open up a 3-1 World Series lead on the St. Louis Cardinals before pissing it away, blowing a 5-2 7th inning lead in Game 5 and and blowing a 4-0 8th inning lead in Game 6. The Cardinals, interestingly enough, enter the World Series with the best regular season record in history - 121 wins, 41 losses - and had not lost a single playoff game yet. In fact, the Cards had not lost a single game since Labor Day before their struggles in the World Series. It is one of the biggest World Series meltdowns in history and hand the Cardinals a 13th World Series title.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could you please do a snapshot of a DFW area CD?

[KingSweden]

Could you please do a snapshot of a DFW area CD?

Sure! Any in particular? (You may want to refer to the 2022 map)

[Gass3268]

WI-02 and MD-08 if you have the time.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2027

New Jersey

NJ Senate: Democrats pick up one more seat as the Kean backlash grows, going to 26-14.

NJ Assembly: Lou Greenwald's Democrats gain one more seat to effectively max out on this map, going to 51-29 in the Assembly.

Virginia

VA Senate: Democrats pick up not one but two Senate seats, going to 23-17 and enjoying one of their biggest Senate majorities in recent memory as the state swings against the unpopular GOP, particularly conservative Governor Mark Obenshain.

VA House: Republicans lose eight seats in the House of Delegates to drop to 58-42, a more manageable minority for Minority Leader David Bulova.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2027

Mississippi

MS-Gov: One of the biggest upsets in recent political history and a potential sea change in Mississippi politics - Jim Hood makes a comeback and narrowly beats outgoing Lieutenant Governor Chris Massey 50-49 in a tight, ugly contest. Massey's abysmal campaign and a terrific run by Hood hand Democrats the keys to the Governor's mansion for the first time in 24 years and gives the South another white Democratic Governor to go with Jason Carter, Mark Pryor and Tim McGraw. D GAIN.

MS-Lt. Gov: Phil Gunn, the Auditor, runs for Lieutenant Governor and wins 52-47 over black Democrat Bo Darrell.

MS-AG: Jason White wins another term 54-44.

MS-Auditor: Gunn is replaced by white Democrat Dina Kain, aged 37, a CPA from Biloxi who defeats a scandal-plagued State Rep. 51-48. It is another big win for Ronnie Musgrove's Blue Dixie. D Gain.

MS Legislature: Democrats get one seat in the Senate to go down 32-20, and gain two seats in the House to further cut the GOP advantage to 62-60.

Kentucky

KY-Gov: Despite Thomas Massie's abysmal approval ratings, former US Rep. Ryan Quarles runs up enough of the score in rural Kentucky and the outer suburbs to narrowly eke out a win over Louisville Mayor Allison Denny, winning 49-45, with an Independent taking the rest of the vote. R Hold.

KY-Row Officers: Democrats replace Edelen as SOS with State Rep. Tim Calvin of Louisville and beat Treasurer Chris Girdler with businessman Joe Kelly. AG Joe Fagan is reelected, and Republican Jon Morris is elected as Auditor.

Louisiana

LA-Gov: Rick Ward wins in the first round, defeating Democrat Charlie Chandler and hard-right Republican Bill Thoombs 50-39-11. He only escapes a runoff by 117 points. R Hold.

LA-Lt. Gov: Billy Nungesser retires after three terms. He is replaced by St. Tammany Parish President (this exists, right?) Rob Fouch, a Republican, who wins in the jungle 58-30 over an underfunded Democrat.

LA-AG: Jonathan Perry wins in the first round without issue.

LA Legislature: Democrats flip the Louisiana House by gaining one seat, taking a precarious 53-52 majority in the chamber mirroring the Republican one from the last session, belying any downballot success for the Republicans sweeping the ticket. In the Senate, meanwhile, Republicans lose one seat to drop to 24-15.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2027

Municipal

Houston Mayor: After the incumbent elects not to seek a second term, a surprisingly progressive campaign by City Councilwoman Kandi Stark winds up winning in the runoff in a historically conservative city. D Hold.

Indianapolis Mayor: Joe Hogsett decides not to run for a fourth term. Council President Vop Osili becomes the first black Mayor of Indy with his dominant win.

Madison Mayor: Paul Soglin finally retires after cumulative decades at the helm of the very liberal city. He is replaced by Tamara Perkins, the first transgender Mayor of a large American city ever.

Phoenix Mayor: Mariella Arbaenz is elected Mayor of Phoenix, the first Latina to rise to that position as the city continues to slowly become more Hispanic and liberal.

Columbus Mayor: Andrew Ginther is elected to a fourth term, the second straight Democrat to serve that long.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could you please do a snapshot of a DFW area CD?

Sure! Any in particular? (You may want to refer to the 2022 map)

The seat that has the Park Cities and Garland.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2027

House Specials

CA-23: After Kevin McCarthy takes off to Silicon Valley, he is replaced in his Safe R district by Mark Payden (f, aged 38), a local business owner and former CA GOP policy analyst and advisor, who easily dispatches a Democratic opponent with over 60% of the vote in a low turnout special.

TX-22: Republican State Rep. Gary Woods loses a shocking special election in increasingly diverse Fort Bend-based TX-22 to replace Pete Olson. He loses narrowly, 51-48, to Democratic County Commissioner Joe Barraga, aged 44 (f). D+1. It expands the Democratic House majority to 267-168.