Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

March 28, 2016

This is "mini Super Tuesday," with Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina and Arizona all voting on both sides. This is the last true primary until late April, with a few Western caucuses spread around in the interim.

Democratic

Seth Moulton: Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Arizona

Anthony Foxx: Missouri, North Carolina

Despite Foxx posting a landslide in NC, he falls further behind as Moulton racks up big wins in Midwest states, including with black voters.

Republicans

Tom Cotton: Missouri (W), Indiana (W), Arizona (W), North Carolina

Paul Ryan: Wisconsin (not WTA but Paul Ryan wins all but one delegate), Ohio (W)

Ted Cruz: none

Cruz drops out of the race and Paul Ryan debates doing the same as the math in Cotton's favor begins to become difficult to overcome.

[KingSweden]

What We Missed - February and March 2028

• After the side passing of Secretary of State Vicky Nuland, former US Rep Mike McCaul - having spent the interim ten years since his primary defeat to Ted Cruz in 2018 back in the private sector - is tapped as the Interim Secretary of State in February and made official in late March, to serve through the final ten months of Sandoval's term.
• Protests start to wrack China and other Asian countries as Cambodian flu, and the lack of response to it, intensify
• A warm winter leads to an even drier spring, with droughts kicking in throughout the world
• Encouraged by President Javad Zarif, reformists win a two-thirds majority in Iran's Parliament and Council of Experts, much larger than any such they have enjoyed in recent years and causing pundits to wonder if the Islamic Republic might finally collapse after fifty years

[KingSweden]

Saturday April 8th, 2028

Caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Hawaii and Alaska

Democrats

Seth Moulton takes a clean sweep, winning all four by large margins. Anthony Foxx and his team start to concentrate on the late-April Acela primary as their position continues to deteriorate.

Republicans

Tom Cotton wins in Idaho, Hawaii and Alaska while Paul Ryan wins Utah. Both candidates stay in the race despite Cotton's decisive delegate lead.

[KingSweden]

April 2028: Longtime Florida Rep. Alcee Hastings passes away at the age of 91, triggering a special election for his ur-safe Democratic seat in Florida. Former Clinton campaign hand James Carville dies later in the month, too. Brian Sandoval signs off on a continuing resolution to take the government through the end of the year and also, surprisingly, signs a green energy bill approving massive subsidies to the solar, wind, and thorium salt industries.

The big story of the month comes near the end of April when there is an attempted coup by Iran's Revolutionary Guard and elements of its military. Hundreds of thousands of young and middle-aged Iranians flood the streets in support of its elected Parliament and reformist President, and after six days of chaos and fighting, the reactionary faction military stands down under popular duress and lack of support from much else of the military. Zarif, despite having fairly close connections to many of the Ayatollahs, is in a position after the failed coup to announce, "For the first time in eighty years, next spring we shall have fair and open elections!"

On the morning April 30th, protestors against the Communist Party in China are gunned down in Guangzhou and crackdowns begin across major cities that evening, replete with Internet blackouts and the mass arrests of dissidents all in a twelve-hour period, leading to sudden riots just before May Day.

[KingSweden]

April 25th, 2028

New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maine, Puerto Rico

(aka The Acela Primary or Super Tuesday Round 3)

Democrats

Seth Moulton: New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Nebraska, RI, Connecticut, Maine

Anthony Foxx: New Jersey, Puerto Rico

Foxx announces he is cancelling his appearance in California later in the week and returning to Charlotte to "assess the campaign" after receiving a drubbing in the nine-state primary clash.

Republicans

Tom Cotton: Pennsylvania, Delaware, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Maine, Puerto Rico

Paul Ryan: New York, Connecticut, New Jersey

Ryan does not do as well as he had hoped though he narrows the delegate gap considerably thanks to strong performances in multiple Manhattan-area CDs. Ryan announces he is staying in the race, which next heads to Oregon, Washington and South Dakota at the end of May.

[KingSweden]

May 2028: Anthony Foxx announces at a press conference in Charlotte that he is suspending his campaign for the Presidency and that "though we ran a spirited campaign where we often disagreed, Governor Moulton has my full support in whatever capacity we need this fall." A few days later, he attends a Moulton rally in North Carolina where he formally endorses him. Moulton has effectively won the Democratic primary even though he has not crossed the magic number yet, and the endorsements start to pile up from around the country.

The fallout from the Chinese crackdown escalates as civil unrest wracks the country. Hundreds are killed and the chaos starts to exacerbate worries about the Cambodian flu, which has now killed nearly five million worldwide, spreading even further with China wracked by unrest. Whispers of a potential coup against Hu Chunhua start to spread as well. The hottest May on record strikes the northern hemisphere, with much of Europe experiencing nearly 100 degree, humid heat.

And now, for Sports!: Manchester United wins the UEFA Champions League on penalties over FC Barcelona and also takes the Premier League for a massive double. Italy's Roma wins the Europa League 4-0 over Real Sociedad. Barcelona also wins the Copa del Rey while Atletico wins La Liga, Bayern takes a domestic double, and Crystal Palace beats West Ham for the FA Cup.

[KingSweden]

May 23rd, 2028

Washington (W), Oregon (W), South Dakota

Republicans

Tom Cotton wins all three primaries, the two more delegate-rich being winner-take-all, to deal a death-blow to the Paul Ryan campaign and placing him within striking distance of having a simple majority of delegates after CA, NM, ND, and MT all vote the first Tuesday of June. With no real math, Paul Ryan announces he intends to suspend his campaign, effectively making Cotton the GOP nominee four years after his embarrassing loss to Brian Sandoval.

[KingSweden]

CD Snapshot

This Week - MA-6

A son of the North Shore is two months away from being formally nominated to serve as the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

For the residents of the North Shore-based 6th, it is a moment many have dreamed of for years.

"I knew Seth would be President one day," beams local grocery store owner John Hull. "I remember when he was first elected, I thought... I thought 'Wow, this guy has what it takes.'"

As the North Shore has continued to urbanize and densify with Boston's breakneck growth over the last twenty years, Seth Moulton has become something of a local rock star. A moderate progressive when elected to Congress in 2014, he tacked left after his election to the state house six years ago and now has become a darling of his party, respected by the left and hyped by the middle as possibly the most dominant Presidential candidate since Barack Obama.

"He can win back voters we lost four years ago in Middle America," declares US Rep. Brendan Crighton, who replaced Moulton in this moderate district. "This is a guy who has challenged the establishment every time. When he ran for Congress, when he ran for Governor, and now for President."

Outside of the now-famous "Marine son of hippies" who is a general election campaign away from the White House, the North Shore is doing pretty good. New apartment complexes, including some high rises, are going in along with trendy new restaurants as young families prices out of Boston start to shift northwards.

Unlike some of the struggling cities in Western Massachusetts, the North Shore has seen the windfall of Boston's boom. Though there are the usual grumbles about gentrification, Essex County and the suburbs don't seem to mind.

"We're doing pretty okay up here. Unemployment is low, the schools are great - this is a great time to live in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts," Crighton says cheerfully as he phone banks on behalf of would-be President Seth Moulton from a campaign office in Salem. "I think Seth is going to take that energy all the way to the White House, just watch."

[Mike Thick]

2028 Democratic Presidential Primaries:

Massachusetts Governor Seth Moulton (Nominee)
North Carolina Senator Anthony Foxx
Former California Governor Gavin Newsom

2028 Republican Presidential Primaries:

Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton (Nominee)
Treasury Secretary Paul Ryan
Former Texas Senator Ted Cruz
New Jersey Governor Tom Kean

[KingSweden]

2028 Democratic Presidential Primaries:

Massachusetts Governor Seth Moulton (Nominee)
North Carolina Senator Anthony Foxx
Former California Governor Gavin Newsom

2028 Republican Presidential Primaries:

Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton (Nominee)
Treasury Secretary Paul Ryan
Former Texas Senator Ted Cruz
New Jersey Governor Tom Kean

Makes you realize how regional of a candidate Anthony Foxx was, fluke win in NJ notwithstanding.

[KingSweden]

State of the Races 2028

With less than six months to go until election day and both parties having settled on a nominee, here is where the big races in each state currently stand...

Alabama: Martha Roby had no trouble in her primary and should have no trouble in the general, and Tom Cotton is virtually guaranteed Alabama's 8 electoral votes. Democratic US Rep. Brian Crook has assembled a massive war chest after his narrow win two years ago and the race in Alabama's 2nd should be one of the marquee races of the year as he faces State Senator Mark McBride.

Alaska: Democrats on defense with US Rep. Chris Tuck and hoping to translate their pickups last time here into 3 electoral votes in increasingly swingy Anchorage. Senator Lance Pruitt, meanwhile, is popular and faces a C-list Dem opponent - should cruise.

Arizona: The Latino influx to Arizona and the diversifying suburbs have made this a top-tier swing state this year, and Democrats are expected to challenge for the state on all fronts. US Senator Doug Ducey, who won a bitter contest against Krysten Sinema six years ago, is up for reelection and will face US Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is expected to wage a competitive, top-tier campaign. Democrats will also defend their pickup in the 2nd and try to break into more of the GOP's iron hold on the Phoenix suburbs, hopefully with some help from higher up the ticket.

Arkansas: Democrats have a decent candidate here in former USDA official and Tyson executive Arnie Black to take on the open seat being vacated by John Boozman, though it will be an uphill battle to defeat popular former Governor Tim Griffin in the GOP Presidential nominee's home state. Little Rock Mayor Charles Blake, who previously served in both the AR House and Senate, is taking on US Rep. David J. Sanders in the Little Rock-based 2nd District and should run tight, though with Cotton now atop the ticket Sanders is thought to have the decisive advantage.

California: Eric Garcetti should cruise at the top of the ticket and Seth Moulton will easily earn California's 56 electoral votes. Republicans will make a push to make back some of the lost ground in both the legislature and Congressional seats, while Democrats are ready to go on the offensive again and try to flip some districts in diversifying Orange County. There should be some top-tier battlegrounds this time around.

Colorado: A sleepy Senate race became a blockbuster when Vice President Walker Stapleton announced he would return to Colorado to challenge Michael Bennet - the popular Stapleton is thought to make this a pure tossup. Democrats, meanwhile, hope they can retake a state that narrowly slipped away from them four years ago and see if this is finally the year they dislodge Rick Lopez in the 3rd.

Connecticut: Dick Blumenthal, another member of the class of 2010 who is retiring, will likely be replaced by former Governor William Tong, who decided to forego a third term to try his hand at the Senate again. Republicans, licking their wounds after a disastrous 2026, will try to make headway in the state legislature and pick off Byron Jones.

Delaware: Governor Ken Simpler will face the winner of the August Democratic primary, and whoever he stares down is though to have the advantage in the only real marquee race in this state in 2028.

Florida: A blockbuster swing state will see Democrats defend a few of their pickups, try to completely flip the state legislature and push to take out Marco Rubio, while Republicans will defend their positions with a well-run state party and hope that the Congressmen who narrowly survived the wave last time can hold on again. Pure Tossup on where these races go.

Georgia: Another blockbuster swing state, as Democrats will push to knock out Senator Rob Woodall and finally take Georgia for the first time in over 30 years. Republicans have their eyes on some of the suburban Congressional seats, hoping to punish "wave babies" who are a poor fit for their polarized districts. Either way, expect a lot of money to pour into the Peach State this fall.

[KingSweden]

State of the Races 2028

Hawaii: A sleepy state this fall - Brian Schatz will cruise to yet another term and Democrats will maintain their dominance across the state.

Idaho: Other than Raul Labrador running for what promises to be his final term in Washington, Idaho is a lock for the GOP and its Congressional seats will see zero turnover.

Illinois: Cheri Bustos looks good for reelection in this struggling state, which should see another polarized Chicagoland-Downstate map. Republicans, decimated in the Congressional delegation, will try to snatch back some lost ground in rural and suburban districts

Indiana: Though Tom Cotton is definitely favored in the Hoosier State, there's a chance there could be some nasty fights. On the Congressional level, Democrats are defending Ryan Dvorak in the 2nd while eyeing districts along the Ohio they barely whiffed on last time. Senator Todd Young is directly in the crosshairs of former US Rep. John Broden, an old-school Union Dem who has been running for nearly two years. At the Gubernatorial level, Sue Ellspermanm is term limited and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is gunning for this seat - which would be a coup for this openly gay former Navy officer. All these races should be viewed as tossups.

Iowa: Moulton will be scrambling to take back this heavily white rural state while Democrats, coming off of one of their best cycles in state history, are zeroing in on freshman legacy Senator Pat Grassley, who will be testing the strength of his name in a tougher climate. As Des Moines and Davenport continue to grow steadily, whether rural Grassley-style politics can sustain are in question - as is whether Democrat Jim Lykam is the man to take him out.

Kansas: Another rural state where Democrats over performed last cycle is Safe R at the Presidential level and the century-long GOP streak in the Senate should continue as six-term US Rep. Garrett Love runs to replace popular retiring Senator Jerry Moran. A silver lining for Team D? They came close to knocking off Lynn Jenkins last cycle, and her seat is now open.

Kentucky: Last cycle was a perfect storm for Democrats in the Bluegrass state as they leveraged popular frustration with Governor Tom Massie into a House seat and flipped the state HOR, and managed to take advantage of senior Senator Andy Barr being primaried to get an unlikely pickup in a region that has rapidly become hostile to Democrats. This year is all about defense - the state house is narrowly held, and most observers doubt that former row officer Adam Edelen can take out mainstream backbencher Brett Guthrie. Still, Kentucky Democrats are making an effort again, regardless how Sisyphean it might seem.

Louisiana: There is almost no way Tom Cotton loses his neighboring state to the South, and local campaign officials doubt there is any way that the state's open Senate seat goes Democrat. Still, Major Thibaut, who came close, will try again, this time against polarizing conservative Barrow Peacock. If ever there was a time for lightning to strike in the Bayou, it's this matchup.

Maine: Republicans are hoping that the downscale 2nd District can be flipped again in more ways than one - Brian Sandoval carried this district four years ago. Outside of the battle up here, the state will be quiet this fall as New Englander Seth Moulton should easily won statewide. Democrats are on defense in the state legislature but confident their gains are long term.

Maryland: John Sarbanes faces no problems in this Safe D state, though the DCCC is aiming squarely, once again, at David Brinkley and crossing their fingers that this is finally the time they take the five-term incumbent out. Time will tell, but the Maryland GOP is skeptical

[KingSweden]

Massachusetts: Though there is no big, marquee race on the ballot this year, the state is buzzing with anticipation of electing one of their own for the first time in nearly 70 years to the Presidency. Democrats are absolutely safe in all 9 Congressional districts.

Michigan: Though Cotton is thought to be interested in making a play for a "swing" state that never seems to swing Republican, most observers think it'll be a tough sell. Michigan lacks any marquee statewide races this year, after Democrats scored big wins across the board last cycle, but Democrats will be defending some stretch districts - particularly in Western Michigan - that they flipped last time around. And the Michigan House will be a tough defend, too.

Minnesota: The Gopher State lacks a big statewide race this year as well. Democrats should be strongly favored here, especially as Tom Cotton is a particularly bad fit for the state's sensibilities as a Southern populist. The decline of the GOP in the suburbs and its rise in ancestrally Democratic rural areas will be the trend to watch.

Mississippi: The increasingly minority-dominated Mississippi has been spoken of as a potential target of the Moulton campaign, though Republicans snicker about the prospect. Despite Stacey Pickering running a close race last cycle and Jim Hood taking the State House for Democrats last fall, a Massachusetts liberal is thought of as being a poor fit for Democrats attracting both the tiny slice of crossover voters they need and maximizing the necessary black turnout. Plus, Cotton is from right next door.

Missouri: A plethora of interesting races here, as Republicans are confident in defending it across the board while Democrats are turning their attention to this increasingly-GOP state as a potential offensive target. Governor Eric Greitens is seen as having the advantage in his reelection campaign, but Senator Kurt Schaefer will face a high-profile rematch against the man he defeated six years ago, former Senator Jason Kander. Meanwhile, the state figures to see a serious investment from both Presidential campaigns, though Cotton is viewed as having a clear advantage in this very white, very polarized state.

Montana: Though a liberal Massachuttean like Seth Moulton seems like a counterintuitive choice to head to one of America's most conservative and libertarian-flavored states, the Moulton campaign believes that his military record could outweigh his support for gun control. Though Republicans remain highly skeptical, an influx of wealthy coastal professionals to Montana during this decade's telecommuting revolution has made young, liberal hotspots like Missoula, Bozeman, Helena and recently Kalispell buzzing cities ready to make their mark. Besides the Presidential campaign, where a small investment could go a long way, the House seat is open as US Rep. Collin Tejada aims squarely at the Governor's mansion, facing off with Kendal Van Dyk for Governor Tim Fox's seat. The Democrats will also be trying to flip the House and defend the Senate, at that.

Nebraska: Though Tom Cotton is favored here, Republicans are increasingly worried that Seth Moulton's campaign could pick up not one but two electoral votes from the 1st and 2nd districts, especially after Democrats picked up both seats last cycle.

Nevada: The Sandoval machine is sweating Senator Mark Hutchinson's reelection in the President's home state four years after a dominant showing and two years after an absolute pasting. Sandoval, who has no particular love for Cotton, is expected to devote his energy to saving his Senate "consigliere" and successor rather than revving his machine up for a man he is said to detest.

New Hampshire: Two years after a banner cycle for New Hampshire Democrats, Senator Chris Sununu is running scared, possibly the most vulnerable Senator in the entire United States. Moulton is expected to make a massive impact with small investment in a neighboring state.

New Jersey: A safe Democratic state without any big statewide races and Republican eyes on holding Drumthwacket for a third straight term next fall. Democrats have no real offensive opportunities here and Republicans face an uphill battle to take back the 3rd District.

[KingSweden]

Retroactive housekeeping announcement: after some consideration, I've decided to drop Erin Murphy as President Sandoval's second SC choice and replace her with Josh Hawley of Missouri. I think this is a better fit, especially as Sandoval would want to keep the right wing at bay early on in his Presidency.

[KingSweden]

New Mexico: After a close scare in '24 despite the Heinrich home state effect, Seth Moulton is expected to easily carry the Land of Enchantment. There are no major down ballot races this year, with all Congressional incumbents viewed as safe.

New York: Chuck Schumer's retirement has spurred a free-for-all primary in August triggering a number of down ballot primaries as well in advance of a wild three-cycle stretch to replace Schumer, New York City Mayor Eric Adams and Governor Preet Bharara. Democrats are also defending gains in the NY State Senate and a number of marginal wave seats in upstate and the suburbs, most prominently the 8th, abandoned by wave-baby Brad Lander after one term.

North Carolina: The pendulum swung back right In this polarized state four years ago as Brian Sandoval carried the Tar Heel State and Pat McHenry knocked out Josh Stein to reclaim the Governor's Mansion. Democrats expect newly-renowned Anthony Foxx to campaign heavily for Moulton here, perhaps even as his VP choice, while NC is the backbone of Cotton's path to the White House. The GOP must also defend the mansion and Richard Hudson will try to avoid joining the graveyard of one-term North Carolima Senators.

North Dakota: John Hoeven, yet another member of the banner class of 2010, is retiring this fall, with Governor Drew Quigley expected to waltz to his Senate seat. Kevin Cramer is seen as finally taking the plunge and making his move on the Mansion this fall, leaving a competitive House race potentially open. Moulton has been rumored to eye the state's 3 electoral votes, too.

Ohio: The swing state supreme. Ohio's slight GOP lean and Tim Ryan's competitive Senate seat should see this race enjoy a barn-burner of an election this fall. Democrats will also have to defend pickups in white working class areas while the increasingly liberal Columbus suburbs might finally turn on moderate US Rep. Jim Hughes, who is seeking a seventh term. The GOP is also desperate to hold the state legislature with important redistricting battles coming up in a few years, although Democrats have conceded they are unlikely to flip either chamber.

Oklahoma: Democrats have no chance here, but the GOP is still licking its chops at snatching back the OKC-based 5th CD. It should be an expensive, competitive race.

Oregon: Senator Brent Barton, who went from moderate New Democrat to Progressive hero in just the last six years, has probably skewed left enough to avoid a primary challenge from hard-left Portland Ascending, a WFP-aligned pressure group. Other than that, Democrats look likely to maintain their hold on this state.

Pennsylvania: Sandoval came just shy four years ago, and Moulton should be a much better fit. Joe Sestak is retiring, but Democrats have already coalesced behind Us Rep. Brendan Boyle. The big battle will be for Democrats holding marginal Comgressional seats and trying to expand their Senate majority while flipping the State House. It will be a very expensive fall in the Keystone State.

Rhode Island: A quiet fall in America's smallest state. Moulton should win by a landslide and there are no significant races down ballot.

South Carolina: Democrats will, for the first time in decades, make a true play for the booming Palmetto State. It is probably still a few cycles away, especially with a Southern veteran like Cotton on the ticket, but the Senate race will get interesting as a black Republican (Tim Scott) faces a white Jewish Democrat (US Rep. Joel Lourie). The GOP is favored across the board.

[KingSweden]

State of the Races - Continued

South Dakota: Though the GOP should easily win this state, there are some interesting races on the menu. John Thune waited until the last moment to seek a fifth and final term after stepping down as GOP Senate leader in late '26, and US Rep. Jason Frerichs will face one of the country's barnburner races as the GOP makes him their top target on the Congressional map. Whether he can regain the retail magic of last cycle remains to be seen.

Tennessee: This ought to be one of Cotton's safest seats, and a big win will help wash the bile of 2026 out of Volunteer State Republican mouths. Not much going on here, with all Congressmen seeking reelection.

Texas: Seth Moulton will target this state, and top Republicans are worried by the rapid demographic change in the Lone Star State, long the lynchpin of their electoral map. A big night for Democrats two years ago has the attention of top GOP officials, who will pour at least a hundred million dollars into this state alone to try to defeat some of the Democratic rookies. Several of the young Congressmen seem like adept campaigners but will be facing a focused GOP machine for the first time. Both Democrats and Republicans doubt Moulton can flip Texas, despite it definitely emerging as a swing state, but the investment should help protect the darling Democrats who sprung up two years ago.

Utah: Some nasty blood in Utah between moderates and conservatives, though Cotton will mop up here. Jason Chaffetz is challenging Governor Sean Reyes in a late August primary, while Senator Josh Romney will stare down activists as well. Both incumbents are favored, but the battle over the Sandoval era's legacy will only continue to get hotter.

Vermont: The big story here is Patrick Leahy seeking yet another term, what would be a record tenth, to the United States Senate. Already the longest-serving Senator, if he lives to the end of this term he will be the longest-serving member of Congress, ever.

Virginia: A top tier battleground again, with Democrats zeroing in on some semi-rural districts as potential swing territory while Republicans have eyes on the 2nd again, lost thanks to a disastrous candidate last time around. Cotton is said to view Virginia as the core of his White House strategy and will invest heavily in introducing himself as a change agent to the kinds of neighborhoods where Sandoval is popular and nearly flipped the state.

Washington: A lot of big races in Washington as Republican Governor Steve Litzow has to defend the mansion against Attorney General Bob Ferguson, where the Democrat is favored. A wild primary will unfurl to replace retiring, long time Senator Patty Murray and Democrats will seek to maximize their gains from last cycle in the state legislature.

West Virginia: Republicans have no fears here, as they should carry all statewide offices once again and continue their dominance in one of their safest states now.

Wisconsin: Democrats may have overperformed here last time around, while Republicans will want to win the Badger State for a second time in a row. While Cotton is a great fit for the vibe of the Wisconsin GOP - and will have former Governors Scott Walker and Scott Fitzgerald as outstanding surrogates, especially with Walker running for Senate against Senator Ron Kind - Moulton should be a narrow favorite here.

Wyoming: Hahahhahaha

[KingSweden]

June 2028: The hottest June on record. President Sandoval announces a major tax break investment in renewables, passing what is surely one of the last bills of the current Congress after vetoing a measure to heavily tax carbon-intensive industries to pay for renewables. The general election revs into high gear with the conventions at the end of July.

The Chinese crisis continues to unravel slowly as protests and crackdowns roil the country. Leadership meetings become more frequent as the Standing Committee debate how to proceed, with rumors swirling that allies of former President Xi Jinping will deep-six Hu Chunhua and throw him under the bus. The new Iranian Parliament passes sweeping reforms of the political system ahead of the open Presidential election in year, enraging conservatives who are cowered after their failed coup. The death toll of Cambodian flu crosses 20 million worldwide and cases become more frequent in the United States.

And now, for Sports!: Defending NBA champion New York Knicks win a second straight championship, defeating the Golden State Warriors in five games. The Boston Bruins win their first Stanley Cup in 17 years, beating the Las Vegas Silver Knights in seven games. The Vegas team is the first Las Vegas sports franchise to ever make a major championship round.

[KingSweden]

VP Speculation - Democrats

So who will Seth Moulton pick? Insiders suggest it will almost certainly be a woman or a minority, preferably a minority woman, with some identitarian Democrats still sore that a straight white man is atop the ticket. So who will it be? Chatter from the Moulton camp has led to a variety of speculative options:

Senator Anthony Foxx of North Carolina

This is widely considered not only the best choice from a resume standpoint but from a diversity standpoint, too. Foxx - a second-term US Senator from America's premier swing state, a state notorious for ejecting Senators after one term, who previously was a Cabinet official and the mayor of North Carolina's biggest city - is one of the most experienced Presidential candidates ever and would be a tremendous VP pick, and on top of his deep CV he is also black, connecting with that constituency in a year when popular Senator Cory Booker and internet-popular activist Mandela Barnes both ran. It was Foxx who was standing at the end, and Moulton and his camp are said to be impressed with the campaign he ran, his charisma and the fact that he avoided going too negative during the primary. Foxx would certainly accept, and Moulton probably wants to shore up NC. The one downside is that Democrats probably don't want to be reminded of the last time a liberal Massachusetts war veteran ran with an incumbent Republican administration and a North Carolina Senator as his running mate...

Former Governor Lori Swanson of Minnesota

Lori Swanson is a surprising option, and many are surprised that she is so high on Moulton's shortlist. Her Presidential campaign was a forgettable whimper and she has zero national profile. However, there are reasons it could work - she was a savvy, popular governor in Minnesota; would put a Midwesterner on the ticket, helping in a region where Democrats suffered in 2024; and she's an older woman, giving Moulton a calming, elder stateswoman presence. Most suspect it's Foxx and everyone else on this list, but Moulton was said to like Swanson and she is definitely being vetted.

Governor Darren Soto of Florida

An oddball choice, but Democrats are said to desperately want a Hispanic on the ticket. Texas Senator Julian Castro has already been ruled out due to his own naked ambitions, according to people familiar with Moulton's thinking, and California Senator Alex Padilla is not regarded as a strong addition to the ticket. Soto - young, dynamic, and from a crucial swing state - would be an out of the box choice, if unlikely due to his short amount of time in office. Still, Moulton's message of outsiders challenging the establishment could have some punch with two Governors in their early 50s (in fact, both are born in 1978).

Senator Cheri Bustos of Illinois

Another woman, another Midwesterner, and, crucially, someone from Illinois not connected to the Chicago machine. Bustos would be Moulton's Senate "ace," according to some familiar with this thinking, though she is regarded as not being interested in the job.

Senator Jared Polis of Colorado

Polis' strengths - his support of marijuana legalization, hailing from a swing state Brian Sandoval won four years ago and the first married gay man elected to the Senate - are probably not outweighed by his weaknesses - his Senate leadership ambitions, his utter lack of charisma, the vitriolic response his nomination would engender in many more conservative swing states, his being a white man, and his massive wealth. There is plenty to hate here for both right and left, and Moulton wants as broad a coalition as he can muster.

[KingSweden]

VP Speculation - Republicans

Tom Cotton takes over as the nominee of a bitterly divided party after an ugly primary and being viewed as the champion of the forces that forced incumbent Republican President Brian Sandoval to forego reelection, the first President in sixty years not to seek a constitutionally eligible term. As the GOP is increasingly viewed as the party of rural whites - particularly old ones - and it enters a generational struggle between older, Southern stalwarts who are hawkish and culturally conservative and a rising battle between younger nationalists and libertarians, who does Cotton signal he supports? He is, remarkably, one of the few politicians who can appeal to all camps (least of all the libertarians) but he must choose his pick wisely as he is appealing to a general electorate now. So who will it be?

Senator Ann Wagner of Missouri

Despite hailing from neighboring Missouri, Wagner is thought of as the likeliest pick. Cotton's team appears to want a minority or a woman to reach out to groups the GOP has struggled with and Wagner, who is said to have been blunted in her leadership ambitions in the GOP Senate caucus, was a savvy GOP chair in Missouri and has always been highly thought-of. She is not the world's most charismatic politician but she has connections stretching back decades at the RNC and as an Ambassador to Luxembourg twenty years ago. She is in tune with conservatives and has longstanding establishment connections, too. Her interest in domestic and economic policy, along with deep ties to the pro-life movement, would square well with the often too-foreign policy focused Cotton. The clear top choice despite some of her charisma deficits.

Senator Peggy Bartlett of Texas

Bartlett, a much more moderate figure than Cotton, is one option that had been widely discussed. She would add a female voice to the ticket and is regarded as a savvy campaigner and expert fundraiser. It would rankle Ted Cruz, whom Cotton is said to despise following the campaign, and would be an important olive branch to the Sandoval wing of the party. The concern is about the GOP's reliance on Texas for its electoral math and concerns that picking a Texan for the role would signal that the Cotton camp is worried about the Lone Star State. Bartlett is who senior GOP figures would prefer, and many doubt Cotton is going to deliver it to them.

Senator Kristi Noem of South Dakota

Noem represents an ideological soulmate for Cotton, an experienced hand at Capitol Hill and someone with Governing experience. They are roughly the same age and Noem has feet in both the grassroots camp and the establishment wing of the party - plus, she is close to John Thune and his deep connections. Some pause regarding her lack of charisma, but Cotton is said to think highly of her skillset and would be very interested in tapping Noem for the ticket.

Senator Kelly Schmidt of North Dakota

Another moderate from the plains, Kelly Schmidt represents another potential woman (see a theme here?) for Cotton to tap. She is less conservative than Noem, certainly, though to the right of Bartlett - perhaps just right? She also has connections to the North Dakota oil boomtowns and is well-liked within the party both in DC and outside. And she is one heck of a retail politician. The only concern is how another small-state woman, like Noem, would get perceived in the national media, especially as the GOP's memory of Sarah Palin is long.

Congressman Rick Lopez of Colorado

A second Coloradan on the ticket in a row? Lopez is the ultimate moderate in the House, and he is one of the most popular Hispanic politicians in the country. The House GOP has in this decade made him their face on Univision, and his chops and rapport with Brian Sandoval was said to have made a huge difference in convincing skeptical Hispanics four years ago. Is Lopez, who has shied away from statewide runs, what the GOP might need as Cotton's wingman as he approaches a constituency highly and in some cases vehemently skeptical of his candidacy? It is doubted that Lopez would accept, especially when he can't even be bothered to run statewide. Still, for a man who is said to be canny and patient, perhaps this is the opportunity he has been waiting for...

Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina

Scott and Cotton have been friends for years, though Scott is not thought of as having serious national ambitions. The debacle that was Nikki Haley's 2026 gubernatorial run likely opened the door for Scott to have first refusal as the SC minority Republican who has been on every GOP shortlist for nearly a decade at this point. With Marco Rubio not a serious option as the Senate Minority Leader, could Scott be the man to run point for Cotton in minority communities? Scott is very well respected in Southern black communities even if his party is strongly viewed as the enemy, helping him build his own niche.

Senator Raul Labrador of Idaho

Another potential Latino who is unlikely to bring much of any oomph to the ticket. He is even more conservative than Cotton, a man who already doesn't need to pacify the base, and is from a state that would only go Democratic in case of a 49-state landslide. Still, his name has shown up on some shortlists, however unlikely his selection might be.

Senator Martha Roby of Alabama

A highly-unlikely choice for Cotton, who is definitely said to prefer a woman on his ticket. Nothing says "reaching out to the middle" like picking a running mate from Alabama, and Roby is thought to be on this solely due to age, her relationship with Cotton and her relative moderation on the GOP spectrum. Not his strongest choice.

[Kingpoleon]

Well, while neither Kean nor Newsom was on either shortlist, this election looks to be an exciting one. Good job with this update!

[KingSweden]

Euro 2028 - Spain

It was VERY controversial when Turkey had Euro 2028 taken away over terrorist incidents and the increasingly authoritarian government - so controversial they withdrew from UEFA! Turkey is now an AFC squad, and an increasingly powerful one. Spain is given 2028 instead, their first time hosting the contest since 1964.

Round of 16

Portugal vs. Romania - Riazor (A Coruna)

Portugal defeats Romania 2-0, with both goals coming on penalties in the second half courtesy of aging star Renato Sanches, in what is likely his last campaign with the national team.

England vs. Greece - San Mames (Bilbao)

England, having won all three group games, demolishes Greece 5-0 thanks to two goals from Tom Campbell and one goal each from Eddie Russell, Donnie Clay-Williams, and Luke Howe.

Croatia vs. Denmark - Luis Companys (Barcelona)

Croatia's Ante Coric scores a penalty in stoppage time to win 1-0 over a clearly inferior Denmark.

Italy vs. Poland - Estadio la Peineta (Madrid)

Italy's Daniele Paolini scores two goals and Matteo Vega scores a third to pace the Azzurri to a 3-0 win in front of a sellout crowd in the capital.

Belgium vs. Netherlands - Estadio Olimpico de Sevilla (Seville)

An unlikely draw between low country teams leads to a surprise 6-5 penalty kick win for the Oranje after a scoreless draw in regular and extra time, with young buddy starlet Nikky Bokassa hitting the winning conversion.

Germany vs. Wales - Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid)

The Germans make mincemeat of Wales, defeating them 4-1 with strikes from Billy Dreyfuss, Arnold Kriegler, Jon Barron and Esmed Ciyagir.

Spain vs. Serbia - Camp Nou (Barcelona)

The hosts defeat the last time's runner's up 1-0 with a strike from Borja Mayoral in stoppage time to avoid extra minutes, the first sign after winning all three group games that something might be wrong.

Switzerland vs. Sweden - Mestalla (Valencia)

The Swedes score a big upset thanks to a score by Lars Ekstrom, winning on his 88th minute penalty to advance to the quarterfinal.

[KingSweden]

Euro 2028 - Spain

Quarterfinal

Portugal vs. England - Olimpico de Sevilla (Seville)

England wins a nailbiter 1-0 thanks to a penalty from defenseman John Stones late in the game in an ugly, brutish match to advance to their first semifinal since 1996.

Croatia vs. Italy - San Mames (Bilbao)

Italy beats Croatia on penalty kicks 5-3 after a 1-1 draw thanks to a goal from Tarzan for Italy and Petr Masimovic for Croatia.

Belgium vs. Germany - Luis Companys (Barcelona)

Germany wins 1-0 thanks to a goal from Rudi Blinker at 90+2, avoiding extra time and bringing down the house as Germany is within position of a second straight Euro championship.

Spain vs. Sweden - Mestalla (Valencia)

The favored hosts knock out Sweden 2-0 with scores from Toto and Daniel.

Semifinal

England vs. Italy - Camp Nou (Barcelona)

England defeats Italy on penalties after a scoreless match, winning 7-6 on the shootout after advancing to sudden death at 4-4. They head to their first-ever European Final.

Spain vs. Germany - Estadio La Peineta (Madrid)

The hosts beat Germany 1-0 thanks to Toto's late strike, making him the clear star of the tournament as he adds his fourth goal.

[KingSweden]

Euro 2028 - Spain

Final

England vs. Spain - Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid)

One of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport as England defeats Spain 3-2 in Madrid in extra time, especially after digging out of a 2-0 hole. Tom Campbell scores twice to be named Man of the Match as well as player of the tournament, with his final goal coming at 117'. It is a stunning match for the Englishman who plays for Barcelona, cementing him as a global star. In the midst of his two goals came a strike from Ray Lovett. Spain's first two goals were scored by Abel Ruiz and Caspar. It is one of the biggest meltdowns in the history of the sport, and in front of a home crowd, no less.

It is England's first European Championship, and first major international title since 1966.

[KingSweden]

Summer 2028: (July 4th-Labor Day)

Democrats gather first, as is tradition for the out-party, in Atlanta, Georgia. Seth Moulton announces in Charlotte the week before that he will name Senator Anthony Foxx as his running mate, as was widely expected. The keynote address is delivered by seven-term US Rep. and Arizona Senate candidate Ruben Gallego and is well-received. Moulton's younger, Southern-born wife, Sam Moulton, gives a highly-regarded address, juxtaposed with Foxx's mediocre speech and an acceptance speech by Moulton that few will write much home about. Neither Clinton attends due to health problems, but Barack Obama gives a well-received address to warm up for Foxx, who probably is done no favors by following Obama. It is noted that Marty Heinrich is NOT in primetime when he gives a short speech.

Republicans have their convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, seeking to build on their success winning the state in 2024. The Friday before, Tom Cotton unveils Missouri Senator Ann Wagner as his nominee in Cincinnati, Ohio. The keynote speaker in Milwaukee is Texas Senator Peggy Bartlett, but the big breakout star is US Rep. Trudy Ramirez, the youngest member of the House at 30, who brings down the house as she lays out, "Why this young post-Millennial is going to vote for Tom Cotton!" Buzz about a potential Senate run in 2028 starts to swirl around the attractive, charismatic and Hispanic ingénue. Wagner's speech is mediocre and despite an endorsement of Cotton, Sandoval's speech is clearly half-hearted and he gets only muted applause from the delegates. Many senior Sandovalites - including Senators Dean Heller, Jeff Flake, Mark Hutchison, Paul Ryan and Vice President Jim Comey - do not attend in what is seen as a major break with tradition. Other Sandovalites like Josh Romney and Chas Vincent are given cruddy slots, seen as a particular slap in the face to Romney. Cotton's speech is good, but certainly not what he needs.

The Durban Olympics soon take up a lot of attention and the race keeps its status from the spring - consistent Moulton leads, even large leads, with Cotton seeing a negligible bounce. Heading into Labor Day in yet another scorching summer, the advantage is clearly with Democrats entering the fall.

Mere days before Labor Day weekend, however, the world shakes as Chinese President Hu Chunhua steps down under pressure, with Lu Hao being the tapped successor to stay in until the next Standing Committee Conference in 2032.

[KingSweden]

September 2028: The race ramps up as the first debate is held. Moulton continues to press his clear advantage and Republicans start to worry about the downballot effects crystalizing, with Democrats perhaps even adding to their monster House majority, which GOP was expected to shave 10-15 seats off of regardless of Presidential outcome.

The first debate is seen as being effectively a draw as the two Iraq War veterans square off. Though viewers at home and online like Moulton's answers better, Cotton acquits himself well and starts to eat slightly into Moulton's polling advantage. Still, with early voting in full swing and in high numbers, the GOP starts to panic and are kicking themselves that Sandoval didn't run again as a fairly positive economic report comes out for the third straight month. But is it too little, too late to save Tom Cotton?

The Cambodian flu continues to plague the equatorial world, particularly India and Southeast Asia. The Chinese coup fails to stabilize the situation with protesters and for the first time, an independence referendum in Hong Kong is openly discussed, with the Chinese government accusing secretive "foreign money" of influencing it. Europe starts to move gradually out of its latest long recession, with Eurocrats hoping that an improving picture across the continent helps stave off populists in a more open, more meaningful 2029 election round with major reforms made in the previous year to strengthen the European Parliament.