Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

August 2017: Congress goes on recess without anything passed for immigration or energy, and there are angry town halls over the immigration issue similar to 2009 and 2013 for many Republican Congressmen. Ruth Bader Ginsburg checks into the hospital with heart palpitations - two days later she has passed away, opening up the first vacancy of Hillary's term. Hillary surprises many by announcing that she will nominate California Senator and former AG and prosecutor Kamala Harris to the bench. Many conservative outside groups demand her blockage by the Senate, though most Republican Senators are uncertain about blocking one of their colleagues and Thune says in an interview, "Senator Harris is a sharp woman with a unique legal background. I'd prefer someone with experience as a judge, but she doesn't significantly alter the balance of the court and I don't think she's under qualified, by any means."

August 2017 (continued): Demonstrations begin in Japan over escalating consumer prices as the economy dips into yet another recession. With the turmoil in Russia and Venezuela, and the ongoing (but much subdued) conflict with ISIS in the Middle East, oil cross $90 a barrel for the first time since summer of 2014. Nicolas Sarkozy is installed by Francois Fillon as Prime Minister to unite the quarreling factions of the UMP and they introduce a surprisingly right-wing budget, with pension and spending cuts, tax relief and regulatory reform. The Socialist Party, still smarting from its landslide losses earlier in the year, rebels, encouraging general strikes. Italy sees 2% growth for the first time in years.

And now, for Sports: A big week in the NFL as future Hall of Fame QBs Tom Brady and Drew Brees both retire during training camp. Never before have two such accomplished players retired simultaneously. Huge news out of Europe as Chelsea FC announces the signing of Lionel Messi and Quintero to an already stacked roster of big-name talent. To keep pace in the arms race, Paris St. Germain shocks the world by signing Paul Pogba away from Juventus and Radamel Falcao away from Monaco.

[badgate]

Wasn't Breyer going to resign

[Gass3268]

I have a feeling Clinton will have a big impact on the court.

[KingSweden]

September 2017: Clinton nominates Sri Srinivasan to take the place of Stephen Breyer, and he is quickly approved by the judiciary committee. The Republicans decide not to filibuster his nomination and he passes 63-37. Breyer steps down the next day. Harris' nomination goes to the Senate the next week so both can be seated for October and November cases, and Harris is approved more narrowly, only passing the Senate 56-44 after many Republicans elect not to vote for her over her lack of judicial experience. It is the first time two new Supreme Court justices have been seated the same week. The Court maintains its 5-4 conservative majority. Republicans also present their energy and immigration plans, with the energy reform written by John Hoeven and Thom Tillis and the immigration plan written by Brian Sandoval and Jeff Flake. President Clinton declares an "autumn of action" to pass both large compromise bills, with many Democrats protesting the energy plan for lacking the environmental safeguards many of them (and their donors) were looking for.

September 2017 (continued): In the Austrian snap elections, the ÖVP places first over the FPÖ, with each taking 30% and 24%, respectively. The SPÖ, wracked by ugly internal conflicts, places at 20%, one of its worst showings in history, and loses 14 seats. NEOS, the liberal alternative, clocks in at 16% while the Greens win 10%. The ÖVP forms a government of only 93 seats with NEOS, ending the SPÖVP grand coalition, with the FPÖ forming the main opposition. Iraqi forces stir controversy when they massacre IS forces in northern Iraq to the tune of hundreds of jihadi fighters. A major earthquake strikes Kyushu, killing 3,500 people. The Russian protests have mostly been quelled by now, with protestors and anti-Putin billionaires retreating to plot how to flip the energy to their advantage in parliamentary elections in December and in the spring Presidential election.

And now, for sports: A stunner in the NHL, as the Toronto Maple Leafs, a few months after signing free agent Steve Stamkos, trade two first round draft picks and two young players to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Sidney Crosby. It is the biggest trade since the Kings traded for Wayne Gretzky.

[KingSweden]

Wasn't Breyer going to resign

Thanks for catching that, indeed he was. I added that to the September 2017 section even though his replacement would likely have passed through earlier.

[KingSweden]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

[Tayya]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

[Cranberry]

September 2017 (continued): In the Austrian snap elections, the ÖVP places first over the FPÖ, with each taking 30% and 24%, respectively. The SPÖ, wracked by ugly internal conflicts, places at 20%, one of its worst showings in history, and loses 14 seats. NEOS, the liberal alternative, clocks in at 16% while the Greens win 10%. The ÖVP forms a government of only 93 seats with NEOS, ending the SPÖVP grand coalition, with the FPÖ forming the main opposition. Iraqi forces stir controversy when they massacre IS forces in northern Iraq to the tune of hundreds of jihadi fighters. A major earthquake strikes Kyushu, killing 3,500 people. The Russian protests have mostly been quelled by now, with protestors and anti-Putin billionaires retreating to plot how to flip the energy to their advantage in parliamentary elections in December and in the spring Presidential election.

Wow, you even covered Austria! I can just hope that this won't happen in the next elections
This TL really is great and extremely detailed, though!

[KingSweden]

September 2017 (continued): In the Austrian snap elections, the ÖVP places first over the FPÖ, with each taking 30% and 24%, respectively. The SPÖ, wracked by ugly internal conflicts, places at 20%, one of its worst showings in history, and loses 14 seats. NEOS, the liberal alternative, clocks in at 16% while the Greens win 10%. The ÖVP forms a government of only 93 seats with NEOS, ending the SPÖVP grand coalition, with the FPÖ forming the main opposition. Iraqi forces stir controversy when they massacre IS forces in northern Iraq to the tune of hundreds of jihadi fighters. A major earthquake strikes Kyushu, killing 3,500 people. The Russian protests have mostly been quelled by now, with protestors and anti-Putin billionaires retreating to plot how to flip the energy to their advantage in parliamentary elections in December and in the spring Presidential election.

I know more about Austria, Croatia and Sweden than other "middle-sized" European nations because a) I'm Swedish and b) I did a lot of work on Austria in a TL I wrote on the Alternative History Wikia, so I'm familiar with its politics.

Wow, you even covered Austria! I can just hope that this won't happen in the next elections
This TL really is great and extremely detailed, though!

[KingSweden]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

[KingSweden]

October 2017: In what is called a "grand compromise," Thune announces that he will support combined legislative immigration solution in return for Democratic votes for the Republican energy plan. Sandoval and Durbin, the main architect of the Senate Democrats' immigration program, sit down to hash out the details while Heidi Heitkamp and John Hoeven negotiate potential amendments. House Democrats pass a wide-ranging "jobs act" which includes government-subsidized temporary positions modelled on a Georgia plan, reserving part of unemployment funds to subsidize community college education for unemployed workers in a new program called Back To School (BTS), and, after insistence from Republicans needed to pass the bill, reforms to federal contracting policies to allow more competitive bidding and managerial reform to cut costs.

October 2017 (continued): At a confab in Brussels, the EU's four main center-right leaders - Osborne, Fillon, Merkel and Kopacz - chart out a "five-year program" for kick-starting the Eurozone's sluggish but growing economy. The inclusion of Poland over Italy does not go unnoticed in Rome, where Renzi, busy working on his labor market and macroeconomic reforms, bristles at what he calls "closed-door negotiations." A massive earthquake strikes northern India, killing close to 40,000 people in that country and 14,000 in Pakistan. Modi and Sharif pledge to coordinate emergency responses in the volatile border country, a remarkable step for the two oft-hostile nations.

And now, for sports: An embarrassing end to an otherwise excellent postseason as the New York Yankees are swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in four games in the 2017 World Series. The Yankees have won an AL Pennant in every decade but the 1910s.

[Senator Cris]

Will you cover Italy?

[Tayya]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

Yeah, but that was with neither the FDP nor the AFD reaching the Bundestag threshold.

[KingSweden]

Will you cover Italy?

I've had a few entries in the international "continued" portions where I've touched on Italian events, though I have to admit that outside of Renzi = left and Berlusconi = right, Italian politics confuses me. So far in this TL, Renzi has passed electoral reform and had snap elections in 2015.

[Cranberry]

September 2017 (continued): In the Austrian snap elections, the ÖVP places first over the FPÖ, with each taking 30% and 24%, respectively. The SPÖ, wracked by ugly internal conflicts, places at 20%, one of its worst showings in history, and loses 14 seats. NEOS, the liberal alternative, clocks in at 16% while the Greens win 10%. The ÖVP forms a government of only 93 seats with NEOS, ending the SPÖVP grand coalition, with the FPÖ forming the main opposition. Iraqi forces stir controversy when they massacre IS forces in northern Iraq to the tune of hundreds of jihadi fighters. A major earthquake strikes Kyushu, killing 3,500 people. The Russian protests have mostly been quelled by now, with protestors and anti-Putin billionaires retreating to plot how to flip the energy to their advantage in parliamentary elections in December and in the spring Presidential election.

Wow, you even covered Austria! I can just hope that this won't happen in the next elections
This TL really is great and extremely detailed, though!

I know more about Austria, Croatia and Sweden than other "middle-sized" European nations because a) I'm Swedish and b) I did a lot of work on Austria in a TL I wrote on the Alternative History Wikia, so I'm familiar with its politics.

Cool. Can you give me the link to this one, please?

[KingSweden]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

Yeah, but that was with neither the FDP nor the AFD reaching the Bundestag threshold.

Ah, of course. I didn't think of that, though I thought it was wild that FDP lost 93 seats outright. What #'s would the CDU/CSU need for an outright majority with AFD entering the Bundestag?

[KingSweden]

September 2017 (continued): In the Austrian snap elections, the ÖVP places first over the FPÖ, with each taking 30% and 24%, respectively. The SPÖ, wracked by ugly internal conflicts, places at 20%, one of its worst showings in history, and loses 14 seats. NEOS, the liberal alternative, clocks in at 16% while the Greens win 10%. The ÖVP forms a government of only 93 seats with NEOS, ending the SPÖVP grand coalition, with the FPÖ forming the main opposition. Iraqi forces stir controversy when they massacre IS forces in northern Iraq to the tune of hundreds of jihadi fighters. A major earthquake strikes Kyushu, killing 3,500 people. The Russian protests have mostly been quelled by now, with protestors and anti-Putin billionaires retreating to plot how to flip the energy to their advantage in parliamentary elections in December and in the spring Presidential election.

Wow, you even covered Austria! I can just hope that this won't happen in the next elections
This TL really is great and extremely detailed, though!

I know more about Austria, Croatia and Sweden than other "middle-sized" European nations because a) I'm Swedish and b) I did a lot of work on Austria in a TL I wrote on the Alternative History Wikia, so I'm familiar with its politics.

Cool. Can you give me the link to this one, please?

Of course! Of course, only a small part is about Austria, but here's the TL (so far, of course).

http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Cinco_De_Mayo

[Cranberry]

September 2017 (continued): In the Austrian snap elections, the ÖVP places first over the FPÖ, with each taking 30% and 24%, respectively. The SPÖ, wracked by ugly internal conflicts, places at 20%, one of its worst showings in history, and loses 14 seats. NEOS, the liberal alternative, clocks in at 16% while the Greens win 10%. The ÖVP forms a government of only 93 seats with NEOS, ending the SPÖVP grand coalition, with the FPÖ forming the main opposition. Iraqi forces stir controversy when they massacre IS forces in northern Iraq to the tune of hundreds of jihadi fighters. A major earthquake strikes Kyushu, killing 3,500 people. The Russian protests have mostly been quelled by now, with protestors and anti-Putin billionaires retreating to plot how to flip the energy to their advantage in parliamentary elections in December and in the spring Presidential election.

Wow, you even covered Austria! I can just hope that this won't happen in the next elections
This TL really is great and extremely detailed, though!

I know more about Austria, Croatia and Sweden than other "middle-sized" European nations because a) I'm Swedish and b) I did a lot of work on Austria in a TL I wrote on the Alternative History Wikia, so I'm familiar with its politics.

Cool. Can you give me the link to this one, please?

Of course! Of course, only a small part is about Austria, but here's the TL (so far, of course).

http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Cinco_De_Mayo

Haha yeah sure, thank you!

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2017

Virginia

Governor: It is revealed in an extensive Washington Post report that after being drawn into the same district by court-ordered redistricting, Randy Forbes and Scott Rigell met at a Virginia Beach steakhouse in late 2015 to discuss 2017. They agree that rather than risk a primary in a competitive seat, one will run for Governor and the other will run for the seat. Forbes, having been in Congress close to a decade longer than Rigell, offers to run for Governor and then back Rigell in a hypothetical 2018 Senate bid. Forbes largely clears the field, with Mark Obenshain deciding to run for Attorney General again.

Mark Herring clears the field for Governor after Ralph Northam, who was leaning towards running for Lt. Gov. again, is picked to head the VA. The matchup between Herring and Forbes sets up a classic NoVA vs. Hampton Roads matchup, with Herring regarded as a slight favorite over the conservative Forbes. The campaign tightens to be a tossup as it enters its final months, with Herring focusing madly on base turnout in the suburbs and major cities. Herring runs largely on his socially progressive policies, his connections in Northern Virginia, and on continuing the economic growth under Terry McAuliffe. Forbes runs on a remarkably pragmatic platform, but without a connection to the booming DC-area suburbs, he remains a point or two behind in polling even once the race tightens. The polling is correct, with Herring winning 50-48.

Lieutenant Governor: After Northam leaves to take a Cabinet position, Governor McAuliffe taps former Congressman Tom Perriello as his Lieutenant Governor. Perriello decides to run for a term in his own right in the fall, facing State Senator Steve Martin from the Richmond area. Despite a disciplined, pragmatic campaign by Martin, Perriello easily wins 53-46 thanks to strong support in all the major metro areas and in his old congressional district, where he outperforms all other Democratic nominees.

Attorney General: With Herring leaving the AG post, it sets up a race between 2013 Republican nominee State Sen. Mark Obenshain and State Senator Chap Petersen. Lightning does not strike twice for Democrats, as Obenshain succeeds this time by a similarly narrow margin that he lost by in 2013. R pickup.

VA State House: Democrats pick up one seat in the State House to slash the Republican majority to 61-39, staying in the minority yet again.

[Tayya]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

Yeah, but that was with neither the FDP nor the AFD reaching the Bundestag threshold.

Ah, of course. I didn't think of that, though I thought it was wild that FDP lost 93 seats outright. What #'s would the CDU/CSU need for an outright majority with AFD entering the Bundestag?

Depends on the numbers for the SPD, Greens, Left and AfD, it's hard but barely doable with AfD in the Bundestag though you need a collapse of the SPD vote, presuming Linke and Greens stay in double digits. 18-10-10-5 or 16-12-10-5 are numbers we have to look at. Those might be too implausible, though.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2017

New Jersey

Governor: Christie's approval rating continues its post-reelection decline - he never recovers from Bridgegate even though he was not involved directly, and his popularity is hit further by two more credit downgrades on New Jersey's debt, stubborn unemployment, and further scandals involving his Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno that actually have some teeth. His run for President alienates his constituents further. As such, few major Republican figures in the vein of a Guadagno, Scott Garrett or Tom Kean, Jr. enter the race out of fear that they would lose. The only takers are Jeff Chiesa, Joe Kyrillos and Jon Bramnick. In a tight election race, Chiesa takes the nomination.

The Democratic primary is wild, featuring the following major candidates: Senate President Steve Sweeney, businessman Phil Murphy, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and former Congressman Rush Holt. Murphy and Sweeney split the centrist vote, while Fulop and Holt split the progressive vote. Fulop, running against the "Jersey machine," wins the primary 27-25-23-21 out of the four major candidates, despite having cozied up to major NJ power brokers to finance his run. Murphy quickly announces that his Super PAC will fully back Fulop and his running mate, Assemblyman John Wisniewski.

With Christie's popularity low and Chiesa struggling as a first-time candidate despite his name recognition, Fulop overcomes his awkward public persona and infighting with Sweeney, who never endorses him, to win the New Jersey governorship 54-40, with a third-party libertarian taking a surprising 6% of the vote. D pickup.

New Jersey Legislature: The Democrats win two seats in the Assembly to jump their majority even higher to 55-25, one of their biggest majorities in history, helped by peeling off Republicans in southern New Jersey with moderate candidates. Murphy's PAC's spending helps drive up their totals. Democrats capture one seat in the New Jersey Senate (District 7) to increase their majority to 25-15, just shy of a 2/3rds super-majority.

[KingSweden]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

Yeah, but that was with neither the FDP nor the AFD reaching the Bundestag threshold.

Ah, of course. I didn't think of that, though I thought it was wild that FDP lost 93 seats outright. What #'s would the CDU/CSU need for an outright majority with AFD entering the Bundestag?

Depends on the numbers for the SPD, Greens, Left and AfD, it's hard but barely doable with AfD in the Bundestag though you need a collapse of the SPD vote, presuming Linke and Greens stay in double digits. 18-10-10-5 or 16-12-10-5 are numbers we have to look at. Those might be too implausible, though.

What about 20-11-8-5?

[Tayya]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

Yeah, but that was with neither the FDP nor the AFD reaching the Bundestag threshold.

Ah, of course. I didn't think of that, though I thought it was wild that FDP lost 93 seats outright. What #'s would the CDU/CSU need for an outright majority with AFD entering the Bundestag?

Depends on the numbers for the SPD, Greens, Left and AfD, it's hard but barely doable with AfD in the Bundestag though you need a collapse of the SPD vote, presuming Linke and Greens stay in double digits. 18-10-10-5 or 16-12-10-5 are numbers we have to look at. Those might be too implausible, though.

What about 20-11-8-5?

Your timeline.

[KingSweden]

November 2017: The good results for Democrats in the two off-year elections are cited as boding well for Clinton's Democrats after a busy first year. Both parties signal that immigration and energy will likely not be touched until the next year. Northam's VA reform package is approved in both Houses of Congress. A massive snowstorm hits the Midwest and Northeast, slowing down travel and commerce for days. An oil train derails in rural North Dakota, and it takes days to reach it in blizzard conditions, leaving a massive spill out on the prairie.

November 2017 (continued): John Key's National Party is elected to yet another government, attaining a majority with the backing of minor-party Maori, United Future and ACT. Ukraine's government teeters on collapse as harsh winter weather brings with it fresh protests. A cruise ship in Thailand sinks after running aground. Everyone aboard survives.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2017

Municipal

Atlanta Mayor: With Kasim Reed term-limited, Kwanza Hall is the eventual winner of the election to replace him.

Boston Mayor: Marty Walsh is easily reelected to a second term, and the City Councilmen who retire are replaced with significantly more developer-friendly candidates.

New York City: Bill de Blasio wins yet another wide-open Democratic primary, once again with backing from the WFP. He defeats Michael Grimm in the general election. All five borough Presidents are reelected, as are all major downballot offices. The wild and unpredictable races of the 2013 contest never materialize. Several WFP-backed candidates are elected to the City Council to replace retiring members, moving the needle even further left in the city.

Seattle Mayor: After a first term filled with a slew of progressive pet causes (minimum wage, tax hikes, mass transit, developer fees, police reform, etc.), Seattle's Ed Murray is reelected by wide margins in both the top-two and the general, failing to attract a top-tier recruit.