Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

New Hampshire

NH Governor: Incumbent Democrat Joe Foster favors Paulite/Tea Party candidate Andrew Hemingway. Despite chatter early that Hemingway could beat Foster due to his credentials as an "independent conservative perfect for the Live Free or Die State's uniquely independent sensibilities" and excitement over his campaign in the tech-savvy Nashua area, Foster runs a savvy, competent campaign highlighting his state's decent job growth and defeats Hemingway 52-47, a wider margin than expected.

NH-1: Guinta challenges Donna Soucy to take back his old seat. He is unsuccessful, losing 51-48, a wider margin than his loss in Presidential-turnout 2016. Guinta announces afterwards that he is retiring from politics permanently.

NH Legislature: Republicans gain one seat in the Senate to retake the majority, 13-11. Democrats lose 15 seats in the Legislature as Republicans gain 12, giving a 195-192-12 arrangement with independents holding the balance of power. The independents strike a deal with Democrats to elevate Indy David Luneau to the Speakership.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

VT Governor: Peter Shumlin retires to run for Senate (more on that below), leaving an open seat. Progressive State Senator David Zuckerman runs on a Democrat/Progressive fusion ticket against Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott. Despite Vermont's left lean, Scott runs as a competent technocrat and completely downplays any and all social issues. A gadfly U of V professor runs as an independent in protest of Zuckerman appearing on a Democratic ticket, helping Scott's 56-40-4 MOV at the margins. R+1.

VT Senate: Bernie Sanders retires after 28 years in Congress - 16 in the House, twelve in the Senate. Though Tim Ashe debates running, he decides to try for Attorney General instead, leaving Peter Shumlin with a clear shot at the nomination after Peter Welch declines the bid. Republicans fail to convince Jim Douglas to run and thus serve up State Sen. Diane Snelling, who runs a lethargic campaign that allows Shumlin to cruise to victory with a 70-29 margin of victory. Sort of D+1.

VT Attorney General: Vermont earns its second statewide Progressive officeholder as Tim Ashe is elected Attorney General.

VT Legislature: Progressives knock off a few more Democrats and Republicans gain no seats to continue the legislature's leftward drift.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Massachusetts

MA-Gov: Charlie Baker governs competently and uncontroversially and maintains strong approval ratings for almost all of his term. As a result, no statewide Democrats or US Reps jump in to challenge him. State Senator Barry Finegold runs, suspected by many to merely be an attempt to raise name recognition in anticipation of Seth Moulton running for Senate or Governor in 2020 or 2022. Predictably, Baker wins a 57-41 victory over the low-wattage Finegold campaign.

MA-Sen: Though Republicans initially try to coerce Kerry Healey or Karyn Polito to run against Elizabeth Warren, neither wants to take on one of the more formidable Democratic incumbents, especially after Warren has built herself into the leader of the Democratic left-wing and thus has the backing of nearly every major outside liberal group. National Republicans fume over the recruiting flop, and only former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling is willing to get in. Warren crushes him 66-31 in a landslide reelection.

MA Congress: Neither blowout wins atop the ticket translate into anything downballot. All nine members of the delegation are easily reelected.

MA Legislature: Republicans gain two suburban seats in the Senate and one seat in the House, still at a serious disadvantage in both houses.

Rhode Island

RI-Gov: Despite distaste for her from labor groups and the activist left, Gina Raimondo does not face a serious primary challenge and is easily reelected over Alan Fung, 53-46.

RI-AG: With Pete Kilmartin retiring, the seat is won instead by State Rep. Michael Marcello.

RI-Sen: Whitehouse is elected unopposed.

RI Congress: Both incumbents cruise to crushing reelection wins with no primary opposition.

RI Legislature: Democrats lose one seat in the Senate and three in the House, all in the southern part of the state.

[bobloblaw]

Why dont you just tell us what tomorrow's winning lotton numbers will be?

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Connecticut

CT-Gov: Dannel Malloy, after initially saying he would seek a third term, decides not to run. Out of the Democratic primary emerges State Rep. William Tong, running with the backing of both Blumenthal and Murphy. Republicans struggle to find a top flight recruit after Chris Shays passes on the chance and run Themis Klarides, who struggles to find success against the young, energetic Tong. Tong, thought of as a dark horse when entering five-candidate primary, is the first Asian-American Governor elected on the Eastern Seaboard.

CT-Sen: Chris Murphy is easily reelected Senator over a hedge fund manager.

CT Congress: All five incumbents are reelected with ease.

CT Legislature: Republicans make no gains in the Senate and only pick up two seats in the House.

[The Other Castro]

United States elections, 2018

Connecticut

CT-Gov: Dannel Malloy, after initially saying he would seek a third term, decides not to run. Out of the Democratic primary emerges State Rep. William Tong, running with the backing of both Blumenthal and Murphy. Republicans struggle to find a top flight recruit after Chris Shays passes on the chance and run Themis Klarides, who struggles to find success against the young, energetic Tong. Tong, thought of as a dark horse when entering five-candidate primary, is the first Asian-American Governor elected on the Eastern Seaboard.

CT-Sen: Chris Murphy is easily reelected Senator over a hedge fund manager.

CT Congress: All five incumbents are reelected with ease.

CT Legislature: Republicans make no gains in the Senate and only pick up two seats in the House.

Nice, I like Tong. Who else ran in the Democratic primary for gov, if you don't mind me asking?

[KingSweden]

Why dont you just tell us what tomorrow's winning lotton numbers will be?

Powerball or Mega Millions?

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Connecticut

CT-Gov: Dannel Malloy, after initially saying he would seek a third term, decides not to run. Out of the Democratic primary emerges State Rep. William Tong, running with the backing of both Blumenthal and Murphy. Republicans struggle to find a top flight recruit after Chris Shays passes on the chance and run Themis Klarides, who struggles to find success against the young, energetic Tong. Tong, thought of as a dark horse when entering five-candidate primary, is the first Asian-American Governor elected on the Eastern Seaboard.

CT-Sen: Chris Murphy is easily reelected Senator over a hedge fund manager.

CT Congress: All five incumbents are reelected with ease.

CT Legislature: Republicans make no gains in the Senate and only pick up two seats in the House.

Nice, I like Tong. Who else ran in the Democratic primary for gov, if you don't mind me asking?

Figured probably Lembo and Lamont, maybe through in a businessman or two to appeal to the moderates. Maybe Glassman runs again, though I figured it'd be better to grant her her lifelong dream of being Lieutenant Gov.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

New York

Author's Note: Some changes to the NY results from 2016 are in order after word came the other day that Gibson was retiring, so I'll add that to the D+1 column since I made a mistake and counted Lovely Warren in NY-25 as a gain when she was really a hold, that way the numbers still work out to the 228-207 majority. We'll say that Didi Barrett won in NY-19 and she is the incumbent (Spoiler Alert: Not for much longer.) Also, with Grimm resigning and it looking unlikely that McMahon is going to get in, we'll move forward with Donovan having won the special and Cusick defeating him in November of 2016 (more on that below too).

NY-Gov: The big story here is obviously the Governor's race, in which two-term incumbent Andrew Cuomo finds himself embattled as he seeks a third term. Unlike 2014, when the only opposition he could attract was lefty gadfly Zephyr Teachout, a candidate who stood absolutely no chance against Cuomo's machine. This time, however, he faces two very credible candidates both challenging him from his left: New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, running as a favorite of the activist faction of the party with WFP backing, and former US Attorney Preet Bharara, running on an anti-corruption and good government platform of "sweeping Albany clean." Cuomo finds that he has completely alienated the left wing of the NY Democratic party and that the establishment, haggard after numerous corruption charges and allegations, is suffering. The Clintons, allies of both Cuomo and de Blasio, decline to endorse, and through back channels it becomes apparent that both Schumer and Gillibrand prefer Bharara. In one of the great (and late, due to the date of the NY primary) election surprises, the powerful Governor goes down to the grassroots campaign of Bharara, who earns the support of the centrist wing and many pragmatic liberals who doubt de Blasio can carry statewide but have soured on Cuomo.

Republicans, meanwhile, close ranks behind former US Rep. Chris Gibson early on. The moderate from the Hudson Valley runs as a competent moderate and cites Charlie Baker as one of his inspirations. His platform is designed, like Bharara's, on stamping out corruption, trying to revitalize the upstate and simplifying the business climate in New York. His ties to the Republican 2011-2017 House majority hurt him with many New York City voters, but he focuses his efforts on moderate suburbs in the hope that he can peel off enough voters to narrowly win what he concedes is an uphill battle. Much of his campaign strategy is based on hoping that de Blasio wins and running against him as a big spending city liberal.

Bharara's win and his choice of Albany County DA David Soares as his running mate create the first ticket in New York history without a white candidate, a gamble Bharara makes to fire up the liberal base. After attaining the WFP line and the Independence Party line, Bharara heads into a tight November race with Gibson, who taps Staten Island Borough President James Oddo as his running mate. Though Gibson - regarded as the best statewide GOP in decades, superior on paper even to Pataki or Giuliani - led the race against all three candidates through much of the summer pre-convention and primary, Bharara pulls ahead in mid-September and never relinquishes the lead, winning 55-43.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

New York (continued)

NY-Sen: The GOP runs State Senator Susan Serino against Gillibrand, who crushes her opponent 70-29, one of the largest and most lopsided margins in history and winning all but two counties in the central part of the state.

NY Attorney General: With Schneiderman the US Attorney General and his replacement, former US Rep. Tim Bishop retiring after the end of the term, the prominent position is open. Brooklyn DA Ken Thompson runs as a favorite of the left and wins the primary before being nominated at the convention, and crushes Assemblyman Steven McLaughlin 57-40.

NY-1: Democrats once again fail to recruit a top-tier candidate to take on Lee Zeldin, who cruises to reelection thanks to his moderate credentials and excellent campaign, winning nearly 70% of the vote against a Hamptons socialite.

NY-2: Peter King finally retires. Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone elects not to challenge for the seat, citing a desire to serve out his current term, and so State Senator Philip Boyle is elected to succeed him. R hold.

NY-11: This turns once again into New York City's prime battleground as State Rep. Nicole Malliotakis challenges US Rep. Mike Cusick. In one of the narrowest elections of the night, Cusick barely hangs on to win a second term in office, winning by only 1,000 votes.

NY-19: In the easiest Republican pickup in the state, Didi Barrett is defeated by moderate Assemblyman Peter Lopez 55-44, with Barrett running an atrocious campaign and Lopez riding Gibson's coattails in his old district. R+1.

NY-22: Richard Hanna challenges US Rep. Robert Palmieri for his old seat. Hanna is initially expected to crush the man he lost his seat to in the range of ten to twenty points, but instead wins by a comfortable but surprisingly narrow 53-46 margin. R+1.

NY-23: 31-year old black US Rep. Svante Myrick, regarded by most as the one-term rental wave baby to end all one-term rental wave babies, runs a surprisingly slick Congressional operation and is home in his district every weekend with outstanding constituent outreach. State Rep. Philip Palmesano challenges him and the race is rated a Pure Tossup by most local media outlets and Lean R by most national pundits. Favored to win by 5-10 points, Palmesano winds up losing 50-49 as Myrick scoots into office in yet another narrow, down-to-the-wire election, with less than a 1,000 votes of margin separating him from defeat. D hold.

NY Leg: Democrats lose two seats in the Senate to narrowly hold the chamber 32-31, but the IDC has been whittled down now to the point where there is little risk of them losing the chamber again. Democrats also lose four seats in the Assembly to fall to 104-46, still a daunting margin for the GOP.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

New Jersey

NJ Sen: Bob Menendez cruises to what he promises will be his final term against Jon Bramnick, winning 54-42 with some third party votes siphoned off to two indy businessmen.

NJ Congress: A boring election for Congress-watchers, as the whole delegation is reelected without incident or much sweat. Even freshman Bill Hughes, Jr. is reelected without much drama.

Delaware

DE Sen: Tom Carper announces his retirement after liberal outside groups start hunting for a candidate to challenge him. After Governor Beau Biden passes on a run, Jack Markell and John Carney emerge as the two candidates most likely to enter the fray. When they both enter, it creates a tantalizing primary. Republicans choose not to focus on an uphill race against two multiple-time statewide winners and do not put Ken Simpler forward. Markell becomes the favorite of the more grassroots left and Carney is the establishment pick for the seat. In a reversal from the 2008 gubernatorial primary, Carney defeats Markell with 53% of the vote and goes on to defeat Greg Lavelle 60-39 in the general election.

DE-At Large: A recruiting flop for Democrats! Matthew P. Denn loses his primary for the at-large seat to Wilmington Mayor Dennis Williams, who is a tremendous flop outside of the city and very narrowly loses the seat for Democrats to State Senator Brian Pettyjohn, a moderate Republican. R+1.

[KingSweden]

US Elections, 2018

Maryland

MD Gov: The Appalachian and Delmarva portions of the Maryland GOP base sours on Hogan after he cuts several deals with the state legislature and never rescinds either the rain tax or the strict gun control laws. Chris Shank runs against him in the GOP primary, narrowly losing but crippling Hogan nonetheless. Democrats, meanwhile, coalesce quickly around US Rep. John Delaney, who runs a much more upbeat and active campaign than Anthony Brown in 2014 and unites the party's squabbling factions by appointing ultra-liberal Heather Mizeur as his Lieutenant Governor. He defeats Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake in the primary by a much wider margin than expected and in a narrow general election contest defeats Hogan 51-47, hardly a massive mandate but a big win nonetheless for Maryland Democrats. D+1.

MD Senate: Ben Cardin retires after two terms, to the surprise of many. Chris Van Hollen becomes the early favorite and he defeats Donna Edwards in the primary, a unique affair which pits two members of House leadership against one another. CVH then goes on to face State Sen. JB Jennings in the general after Andy Harris declines to run, and Van Hollen wins 56-40, with independent businessman Kevin Plank picking up six percent of the vote.

MD-4: With Donna Edwards retiring, Anthony Muse, a pastor and State Senator, becomes the nominee in this suburban DC district. Muse easily wins the heavily Democratic district.

MD-6: Delaney's retirement opens his swingy district up. State Rep. John Donoghue runs for the Democrats against Republican State Rep. David Brinkley. Despite Delaney and Van Hollen carrying the top of the ticket, Donoghue turns out to be a surprisingly poor candidate and is defeated by the superior campaign operation of Brinkley, who runs as a centrist to appeal to the DC suburbs and beats out the Democratic lean of the district. R+1.

MD-8: In this safe Democratic district, 16-year House Majority Leader Kumar Barve wins and succeeds Van Hollen.

MD Legislature: Democrats gain 4 seats in the Senate and two seats in the State House.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Pennsylvania

PA Gov: Pat Meehan challenges Tom Wolf for Governor rather than try a return to Congress. The race becomes one of the premier races of the cycle, with Wolf's record being one of a competent technocrat who has still struggled with his very conservative legislature. Meehan's campaign attracts a lot of cash from the RGA (run by David Vitter), but he struggles to make much of an impact against the moderately popular Wolf, who continues to burnish his image as an uncontroversial manager. Meehan loses narrowly as Democrats hold one of their most crucial Governorships 51-48.

PA Sen: Mike Fitzpatrick elects to challenge Bob Casey for the Senate seat after Charlie Dent decides to seek reelection to his House seat. Fitzpatrick runs as a moderate after attracting negligible primary opposition and Casey must campaign much harder than he did in 2012 to keep his office. As part of the DSCC's "Swing Five" (PA, OH, FL, WI, and VA), millions are poured into the state to protect Casey. Despite his late-responding campaign (second time in a row) and a competent operation by Fitzpatrick, Casey is reelected 51-48, his narrowest result yet.

PA-6: Ryan Costello challenges Judy Schwank to get his seat back. In the moderate Philly suburbs her district covers, Costello is able to narrowly defeat the woman who defeated him in 2016 51-48 to regain his seat. R+1.

All other incumbents are reelected, with Matt Bradford and Patrick Murphy staving off challengers out of the state senate to win second terms.

PA Legislature: Republicans pick up seven seats in the House, particularly in swingy SEPA districts to increase their majority to 112-91. However, Democrats pick up two of the seats lost in 2014 to narrow the GOP advantage in the Senate to 27-23.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

West Virginia

WV Sen: Joe Manchin announces his retirement in early 2017 and Democrats run Carte Goodwin, who despite an engaging campaign loses by a wide margin to Evan Jenkins, who in a surprise promises to only serve one term if elected. Jenkins wins 57-42, and West Virginia now has an entirely-Republican Congressional delegation for the first time in nearly 100 years. R+1.

WV-03: With Evan Jenkins retiring to run for Senate, State Senator Daniel Hall wins the Republican primary and faces Robert Plymale in the general election. Hall wins 56-43, belying the Democratic tradition in the region but its recent Republican swing. R hold.

WV Legislature: Republicans win 1 seat in the Senate and two in the House to expand both majorities (22-12 and 68-32, respectively).

Kentucky

KY Congress: All incumbents are reelected by comfortable margins.

KY Legislature: Democrats pull a rabbit out of a hat once again, holding the State House and actually gaining one seat in the Senate.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Tennessee

TN Gov: Senator Bob Corker runs for Governor as widely expected and crushes Stacy Campfield in the primary 80-19. With the widely popular Corker running in the race, Democrats do not put up any serious opposition after Nashville Mayor Karl Dean declines to run and Corker is elected in a 77-20 landslide, one of the biggest margins in modern Tennessee history.

TN Sen: Bill Haslam, in what is called the "Tennessee Two-Step," runs for Corker's vacant Senate seat. Very popular and respected in the TN GOP, Haslam attracts only minnows as opposition in the primary and cruises to victory in November over a no-name Nashville businessman 69-29.

TN Congress: All incumbents reelected.

TN Legislature: Republicans, behind the top-ticket landslides, expand their Senate majority to 28-5 and retake the three house seats lost in 2016 to go back to 73-26.

Virginia

VA Sen: In the marquee race of the cycle in this state, Tim Kaine faces US Rep. Scott Rigell, who passed on a 2017 gubernatorial race to run for this office. The race is initially tight, but Kaine does not get caught sleeping like Mark Warner did in 2014 and pours millions into voter turnout operations and campaigns three or four days a week, especially in Northern Virginia. Rigell spends most of his time trying to persuade suburbanites to elect him, with his aim to max out downstate Republican voters and cut into Kaine's margins just enough to squeak by with a narrow win. Though Rigell runs a terrific campaign, Kaine runs an even better one and wins 54-45 on election night, a much wider margin than was expected with surprisingly strong turnout statewide. As always, Rigell stays ahead for much of the evening with the early GOP precincts reporting first, before Kaine pulls ahead after about 90 minutes of counting and never relinquishes the lead.

VA-2: Rigell's retirement leads to an open seat. Democrats' top choice, Lynwood Lewis, decides not to run for the seat and they are unable to convince Ralph Northam, still at the VA, to jump into the fray either. Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms wins a wide-open GOP primary, promising to serve only three terms, and wins 55-45 over a local business owner. R hold.

VA Congress: All other incumbents reelected, including the somewhat-vulnerable Rick Morris and Robert Hurt, who easily dispatch their Democratic opponents.

North Carolina

NC-4: David Price retires after 22 years in Congress. State Senator Valerie Foushee of Chapel Hill is elected to succeed him.

NC-12: Alma Adams retires after only two terms of her own right, citing health concerns. Charlotte-area Senator Malcolm Graham is elected in her stead.

All other incumbents are easily reelected.

NC Legislature: Democrats hold all Senate seats to keep the Republican margin at 32-18. Republicans take back one of the seats in the House to go to 69-51.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

South Carolina

SC Gov: Alan Wilson is the first man to throw his name into the ring and becomes the favorite of the GOP establishment, backed most prominently by his father Joe Wilson. The grassroots Tea Party wing of the SCGOP backs Mick Mulvaney, setting up an Upstate vs. Downstate race in the GOP primary. Even though most of their beliefs do not really differ significantly, Wilson runs as the more collegial, traditional genteel Southern politician while Mulvaney runs on a platform of putting a "true conservative champion" in a Southern Governor's mansion, something that becomes a priority in 2018 for outside conservative groups with the swath of open seats. Wilson and Mulvaney advance to a runoff after both fail to clear 50%. In the runoff, Mulvaney beats Wilson 51-49, a perilously close amount. After Wilson initially considers asking for a recount, he declines and endorses his opponent.

Mulvaney defeats third-time candidate Vincent Sheheen narrowly, as there are some concerns he may be too conservative even for the state's electorate, but wins nonetheless to become Governor of South Carolina.

SC-5: Mulvaney is succeeded by the man who succeeded him in the SC Senate, Greg Gregory.

SC Legislature: The numbers state 30 to 16 in the SC Senate, and Democrats actually pick up two seats in the South Carolina House to narrow the GOP majority to 75-49.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Georgia

GA Gov: Nathan Deal leaves office marred by scandals which taint his preferred successor Casey Cagle as well, particularly a conflict of interest issue over an EB-5 real estate development Deal allegedly facilitated by co-mingling official funds and taking kickbacks. The scandal ravages much of the Georgia GOP, with Deal becoming toxic by the middle of 2018 and many calling on him to resign.

As a result, Cagle opts not to run and endorses SOS Brian Kemp. Rep. Tom Graves runs as a grassroots favorite, before Jody Hice jumps into the race and sets off alarm bells across the state GOP. There is a major effort to recruit Jack Kingston to run in order to bridge both sides of the party divide, but he declines. The national GOP makes it an explicit point to try to defeat Hice, pouring millions of dollars into the Graves campaign to try to prop it up as Kemp starts to flounder under the pressure of attacks from both social conservatives backing the firebrand Hice and the AFP/CFG brigades coming to defend Graves. Graves and Hice advance to the runoff.

Graves is an awkward fit for the South Georgia crowd that has not had any true champion in the primary, which narrowly swings to Hice, leading him to win the runoff 51-49. Though most GOP observers were confident in Graves' ability to hold the Governorship, Hice's win leads to the RGA starting to triage the race over the public protests of RGA Vice-Chairman Mike Pence, who cites Hice as an "exemplary conservative leader."

On the Democratic side, meanwhile, the race turns into a race between two fairly moderate Democrats, Kasim Reed and Jason Carter. Carter is the more economically liberal of the two, while Reed positions himself as a potentially historic candidate. With no other candidates in the race, Carter manages to leverage his connections to the burgeoning progressive interests in the state and from his previous run to narrowly defeat Reed, whose connections with the Deal administration hurt him. Incidentally, he only has lukewarm support in the black community, with many prominent Atlanta black politicians endorsing Carter instead.

The race is initially down to the wire, but Carter barnstorms southern Georgia and tries to rely on his grandfather's ties to the region. Hice focuses his campaign on the conservative Georgia exurbs to try to replicate the social conservative turnout for Cruz from two years prior and tries to emphasize a more moderate economic plan than many GOP primary voters likely hoped for, suggesting support for a transportation tax to fix congestion in the greater Atlanta area and improving community colleges. However, Hice's controversial statements on Muslims, women and religion come back to haunt him and Carter starts to pull out of runoff territory with a libertarian third-party challenge fizzling out. In one of the biggest shockers of the election, Democrats return after 16 years to the governor's mansion as Jason Carter defeats Jody Hice 52-47-1, narrowly avoiding a runoff. D+1 (and the biggest D+1 of the election).

GA Row Officers: Bill Cowsert is elected Attorney General, Butch Miller is elected Secretary of State.

GA-10: Mike Collins, defeated by Jody Hice in the 2014 primary, is elected four years later as his replacement in this Safe R district.

GA-14: Tom Graves is replaced in Congress by John Deffenbaugh, who cruises to an election win in one of the country's most Republican districts.

GA Legislature: The Senate remains 37-19 in favor of the GOP, while Democrats pick up two marginal suburban Atlanta seats in the House to continue to narrow the GOP advantage to 114-66.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Alabama

AL Gov: The Republican primary is wide-ranging, featuring Mo Brooks, Luther Strange and Del Marsh. Marsh and Brooks split the more conservative vote to give the uncontroversial Strange the opening he needs to win the Republican primary, after which he easily cruises to a general election win over Democrat Bobby Bright.

AL Congress: All incumbents reelected with ease, no retirements.

AL Legislature: No change in composition in either house for the second cycle in a row.

Mississippi

MS Congress: All incumbents reelected without significant challenge.

Arkansas

AR Gov: Pat Hays challenges Asa Hutchinson, who has become thoroughly unpopular with his state's electorate. The idea for Democrats is that Hays has the credibility and the support of the Clintons to take out Hutch, who has become toxic due to his poor relations with the very conservative legislature, a number of bungled initiatives and a scandal over tampering with high school test scores at the state level. Hutchinson announces he will not seek a second term and Tim Griffin jumps in to run instead. Griffin, relatively untainted by Hutchinson and popular in the state, defeats Hays 55-44 to become the next Governor of Arkansas.

AR Lt. Gov: Griffin is replaced by Bruce Holland.

AR Congress: All four incumbents easily reelected.

AR Legislature: Democrats actually regain one seat in the Senate, but regain none in the House.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Ohio

OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown faces Steve Stivers, who runs a second time for the Senate after coming close two years earlier. Though some are worried that Brown will get taken down by his increasingly liberal stances in the swingy, moderate state and that Stivers will be carried over the finish line by the gubernatorial candidate (more below), Brown holds on to win 51-48, his narrowest result yet. Stivers announces the end of his political career after losing the contest, and Democrats have now officially held three of the five swingy Senate seats they needed to protect outside of the truly vulnerable five in Romney/Cruz states.

OH-Gov: Richard Cordray runs for the Democrats as their gubernatorial nominee against SOS Jon Husted, who promises that he will use John Kasich as his model as a Governor. Though Cordray is initially thought of as the top-tier candidate Democrats need, his rust as a candidate (not being on a ballot for eight years) shows early in the campaign and the ODP pours its resources into downballot offices starting in early summer when Cordray continues to struggle, though not like Ed Fitzgerald imploded four years earlier. Husted narrowly wins, 50-48, as Cordray's campaign effects a late surge, so Republicans will continue their dynasty in the Ohio Statehouse.

OH Row Officers: However, Cordray's and the ODP's campaign operations, combined with Sherrod Brown's efforts, elect Connie Pillich as State Treasurer and Senator Joe Schiavoni is elected Attorney General. Josh Mandel, the outgoing state treasurer, is elected SOS.

OH-8: Former House Speaker John Boehner retires at the end of his 14th term in Congress. He is replaced in this Safe R district by former State Senator Chris Widener, who promises to only serve three terms if elected.

OH-10: Mike Turner comes back to challenge Fred Strahorn, the man who defeated him in 2016. In the most hard-fought House campaign in Ohio this year, Turner edges out the well-liked and well-funded Strahorn 50-49, a similarly narrow margin to two years earlier. R+1.

OH-16: Betty Sutton holds on against Jim Renacci in yet another House rematch, winning 51-48 in another emerging battleground in Ohio. D hold.

OH Legislature: Democrats win two seats in the Senate to cut the GOP advantage to 19-14, and win four seats in the House to go to 56-43.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Indiana

IN Sen: The marquee race in the state, maybe in the country. Joe Donnelly is by far the most endangered Senate Democrat and trails both Todd Rokita and Greg Ballard, the major figures in the Republican primary. Ballard runs up a good margin in native Indianapolis, but Rokita appeals more to rural voters who make up the base of the party. Neither candidate tries to particularly seize the Tea Party mantle like Stutzman did two years earlier. Rokita's win puts him in pole position to win in November - Donnelly's lightning does not strike twice and he is defeated 53-46 by Rokita to become the first Senate incumbent to officially lose as the count comes in. R+1 (Republicans now have effected a 50-50 tie in the Senate and need only one more seat for a majority).

IN-2: Walorski campaigns to retake her old seat from Rep. John Broden, one of the Democratic surprises of 2016. However, Broden's campaign operation and terrific constituent outreach network buoys him against the general R tide in the state to give him another narrow win, and he is returned to Congress by an 1,800 vote margin that in fact expands after a recount. Walorski announces she is leaving politics after the result.

IN-4: With Rokita retiring to seek the Senate seat, State Rep. Randy Truitt wins a wide open primary and in this very Republican district easily wins the general election with nearly 60% of the vote.

IN Legislature: GOP control of the Senate remains 34-16, with the party mostly maxed out of seats in this class. In the House, Republicans take back two seats lost in 2016 to beef up their margin to 66-34.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Michigan

MI Gov: The most prominent race boils down to Bill Schuette, who defeats Lt. Gov. Brian Calley in the primary, and Gretchen Whitmer, the consensus Democratic choice to run for Governor in the moderately blue state. Schuette - more conservative than outgoing Governor Rick Snyder or Calley - does not go over well in Detroit or many of its D-leaning suburbs, though the polarizing Whitmer does not play well in rural Michigan. The party focuses its energy largely on electing Whitmer and her Lt. Gov. choice of Coleman Young II, who would become the first black Lieutenant Governor if elected (Whitmer chooses Young to balance the ticket, with one Detroit and one non-Detroit candidate). Schuette, meanwhile, decides to try to heal the rift in the party after the divisive primary by asking Calley to stay on as lieutenant governor. Whitmer/Young are elected over Schuette/Calley 50-48, with an independent taking a small percentage of votes. A crucial D+1 for redistricting in the coming decade.

MI Sen: Debbie Stabenow cruises to reelection over ex-Rep. Mike Bishop, whom she defeats 57-42.

MI-7: Tim Walberg is back! He ousts the man who defeated him, Brian Mackie, 52-47. R+1.

MI-9: For the third consecutive cycle, the Dean of the Michigan delegation retires. Sander Levin does not seek reelection after thirty-six years in Congress and is replaced in his mostly Democratic district by State Sen. Steve Bieda, who runs much closer than he should against a local businessman. D hold.

MI-11: David Trott comes back to run against Justin Tucker and defeats the young Congressman, this time without spoiler Kerry Bentivolio to worry about. Trott wins 56-43, one of the larger margins of loss of any Democratic incumbent nationwide. Trott's campaign focuses on Tucker's poor constituent services and numerous public gaffes. R+1.

Michigan Legislature: Democrats have a surprisingly good cycle in the Senate, defending their slew of open seats and not losing a single open one to Republicans. Meanwhile, with most of the GOP's seats open too, three open GOP seats, all in suburban Detroit, fall to Democrats to shave the advantage down to 24-14, which based on modern history is fairly good for Team D. Republicans, meanwhile gain three seats in the House to retake the chamber with a very tenuous 55-54 margin. Discussions begin among moderate Democrats and suburban Republicans to form a centrist coalition that can swing policy debates in the House. R gain... for now.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2018

Illinois

IL Gov: This race is one of the most-watched in the nation. The summer default on Illinois' public debt and pension obligations damages pretty much everyone involved. Democrats have even more horrible numbers downstate than usual and Rauner's numbers dive in suburban Chicago. Tom Dart runs a fervently anti-incumbent campaign, running as a no-nonsense law and order type against the "vulture capitalist" who caused the default. Rauner (correctly) counters that Dart was part of the state legislature and Cook County sheriff's department that contributed to cost overruns, but the attacks do not work for an angry electorate. Many southern Illinoisians do not turn out for Rauner, and Dart wins 53-46. D+1.

IL Row Officers: Kimberly Lightford is elected Attorney General, and all other row officers are reelected.

IL-1: Bobby Rush retires and in one of the safest D districts in the country, Kwame Raoul replaces him easily.

IL-10: The Eternal Derby continues - Brad Schneider is defeated by former Congressman Bob Dold. R+1, but we'll probably see Schneider run again in 2020.

IL-12: James Clayborne becomes yet another one-term wonder in southern Illinois as Mike Bost storms back to oust him 55-44 as the anti-incumbent wave continues sweeping Illinois. R+1.

IL-13: Once again, Rodney Davis proves to be a much better candidate than Democrats think, beating Ann Callis 60-40 in a stunningly large margin for what is such an even district on paper.

Illinois Legislature: Democrats lose one seat in the Senate to drop to 40-19. However, the Democrats suffer much worse losses in the House, where they lose six seats to fall to 62-56. Mike Madigan is ousted in a leadership coup by Democrats a few days after the election.

[Lief 🗽]

Many southern Illinoisians do not turn out for Rauner, and Dart wins 53-46. D+1.

Hooray!

[The Other Castro]

After Indiana, you said Republicans only need one more for a majority but isn't the only other seat they've won West Virginia? Which would make it still 51-49 D control so far.

[KingSweden]

After Indiana, you said Republicans only need one more for a majority but isn't the only other seat they've won West Virginia? Which would make it still 51-49 D control so far.

D's had 52-48 after Susana Martinez appointed John Sanchez Senator for New Mexico after Heinrich's resignation to become VP (it was helpfully pointed out to me that in NM, the replacement does not need to be from the same party). Earlier indications that the Senate was 53-47 were incorrect as a result.