Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

Presidential: All three states are easily won by Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts giving 66% of its vote to her, Connecticut and Rhode Island going 60% and 64%, respectively. Cruz is cited as being an especially poor fit for MA's voters.

CT Senator: Richard Blumenthal is easily reelected, defeating State Rep. Larry Cafero, the incumbent House Minority Leader. Blumenthal takes 69% of the vote, a significantly higher share than in his first election campaign.

US House: All representatives from Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are easily reelected, although David Cicilline has a tough runoff against former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

State Houses: Democratic majorities are expanded in all six houses of the state assemblies of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island as top-ticket candidates roll to easy wins.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 32
Cruz/Portman: 0

[Free Bird]

Is this going to be a Democratic slobber fest?

[Maxwell]

Is this going to be a Democratic slobber fest?

He's writing a good timeline, and this is all you can come up with? Aren't you infatuated with Susan Collins because she's "above partisanship" or something?

[Person Man]

United States elections, 2016

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

Presidential: All three states are easily won by Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts giving over 60% of its vote to her, Connecticut and Rhode Island going 58% and 55%, respectively. Cruz is cited as being an especially poor fit for MA's voters.

CT Senator: Richard Blumenthal is easily reelected, defeating State Rep. Larry Cafero, the incumbent House Minority Leader. Blumenthal takes 69% of the vote, a significantly higher share than in his first election campaign.

US House: All representatives from Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are easily reelected, although David Cicilline has a tough runoff against former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

State Houses: Democratic majorities are expanded in all six houses of the state assemblies of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island as top-ticket candidates roll to easy wins.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 32
Cruz/Portman: 0

58 and 57?

[MATTROSE94]

United States elections, 2016

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

Presidential: All three states are easily won by Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts giving over 60% of its vote to her, Connecticut and Rhode Island going 58% and 55%, respectively. Cruz is cited as being an especially poor fit for MA's voters.

CT Senator: Richard Blumenthal is easily reelected, defeating State Rep. Larry Cafero, the incumbent House Minority Leader. Blumenthal takes 69% of the vote, a significantly higher share than in his first election campaign.

US House: All representatives from Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are easily reelected, although David Cicilline has a tough runoff against former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

State Houses: Democratic majorities are expanded in all six houses of the state assemblies of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island as top-ticket candidates roll to easy wins.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 32
Cruz/Portman: 0

58 and 57?

Hillary Clinton would probably get at least 63-64% in both Massachusetts and Rhode Island and 60% in Connecticut, as Ted Cruz is a really poor candidate for all three states.

[Person Man]

United States elections, 2016

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

Presidential: All three states are easily won by Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts giving over 60% of its vote to her, Connecticut and Rhode Island going 58% and 55%, respectively. Cruz is cited as being an especially poor fit for MA's voters.

CT Senator: Richard Blumenthal is easily reelected, defeating State Rep. Larry Cafero, the incumbent House Minority Leader. Blumenthal takes 69% of the vote, a significantly higher share than in his first election campaign.

US House: All representatives from Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are easily reelected, although David Cicilline has a tough runoff against former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

State Houses: Democratic majorities are expanded in all six houses of the state assemblies of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island as top-ticket candidates roll to easy wins.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 32
Cruz/Portman: 0

58 and 55?

That's kind of low for RI...CT sounds high ish though.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

United States elections, 2016

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

Presidential: All three states are easily won by Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts giving over 60% of its vote to her, Connecticut and Rhode Island going 58% and 55%, respectively. Cruz is cited as being an especially poor fit for MA's voters.

CT Senator: Richard Blumenthal is easily reelected, defeating State Rep. Larry Cafero, the incumbent House Minority Leader. Blumenthal takes 69% of the vote, a significantly higher share than in his first election campaign.

US House: All representatives from Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are easily reelected, although David Cicilline has a tough runoff against former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

State Houses: Democratic majorities are expanded in all six houses of the state assemblies of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island as top-ticket candidates roll to easy wins.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 32
Cruz/Portman: 0

58 and 55?

That's kind of low for RI...CT sounds high ish though.

I sincerely hope those low margins don't mean a big Cruz win in other states....

[Lief 🗽]

Oh god is the Cruz wave building?

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

New York

Presidential: Hillary Clinton wins a blowout in New York state, taking 67.8% of the vote to 31.3% for Ted Cruz, who wins the lowest raw vote total and percentage for a GOP candidate in the state since Barry Goldwater. It is also the biggest two-party vote spread since that same 1964 election.

NY Senate: Chuck Schumer is easily reelected with over 60% of the vote, running slightly behind Hillary Clinton; no prominent Republicans attempt a run against him.

NY-1: Despite investing millions into electing State Senators in Republican-held Long Island districts, the New York Democratic Party is unable to attract a top flight recruit to take on US Rep. Lee Zeldin and so Zeldin is elected to a second term over a local businessman.

NY-2: Peter King does not retire as was widely expected and so cruises to another term.

NY-11: After Michael Grimm is convicted in late 2015, a special election is scheduled for the spring to elect his replacement. Former US Rep Mike McMahon, Grimm's predecessor, runs for the Democrats against Staten Island Borough President James Oddo. McMahon wins the special election and is reelected to a full term in his own right in November. D+1.

NY-13: Charlie Rangel retires and Adriano Espaillat wins the Democratic primary, tantamount to election in this district.

NY-18: Sean Maloney wins his reelection campaign 54-45, a much wider margin than his narrow 2014 win, over Putnam County Exec Mary Ellen Odell.

NY-19: Chris Gibson is reelected to a fourth term in office, defeating a Delaware County Supervisor 56-42. He tacks to the center in his race, emphasizing his moderate credentials.

NY-21: Elise Stefanik is reelected narrowly to a second term in office, 50-48, over a retired Major who was stationed at Fort Drum. Her campaign focuses heavily on the fact that he was not born and raised in Upstate New York.

NY-22: Richard Hanna is defeated by Utica Mayor Robert Palmieri by a margin of only 1,500 votes. Palmieri wins 49-48. D+1.

NY-23: Incumbent Tom Reed is defeated by 29-year old Svante Myrick, the mayor of Ithaca, who becomes upstate New York's first black Congressman, 51-49 in one of the narrowest races of the cycle. D+1.

NY-24: Incumbent John Katko is defeated by Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, a moderate Democrat, losing 57-40.

NY-25: Incumbent Louise Slaughter retires after 32 years in Congress and is replaced by Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren, who becomes the first black Congresswoman from Upstate New York.

NY Leg: The GOP has lost it's majority! With an unprecedented effort by the NY State Democratic Party, led by Bill de Blasio and the WFP faction, to primary out IDC members and to target swing district Republicans, particularly ones elected prior to the 2000s, the Democrats pick up three GOP-held seats and knock off four IDC members and Ruben Diaz, Sr. Dean Skelos, the longtime Senate Majority Leader, and Senate Dean Kenneth LaValle, both lose their Long Island seats. The NY Dems also pick up two seats in the NY House, leading to unilateral - and significantly more left-leaning - control of Albany.

Clinton/Heinrich: 61
Cruz/Portman: 0

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

Presidential: All three states are easily won by Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts giving over 60% of its vote to her, Connecticut and Rhode Island going 58% and 55%, respectively. Cruz is cited as being an especially poor fit for MA's voters.

CT Senator: Richard Blumenthal is easily reelected, defeating State Rep. Larry Cafero, the incumbent House Minority Leader. Blumenthal takes 69% of the vote, a significantly higher share than in his first election campaign.

US House: All representatives from Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are easily reelected, although David Cicilline has a tough runoff against former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

State Houses: Democratic majorities are expanded in all six houses of the state assemblies of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island as top-ticket candidates roll to easy wins.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 32
Cruz/Portman: 0

58 and 55?

That's kind of low for RI...CT sounds high ish though.

I sincerely hope those low margins don't mean a big Cruz win in other states....

This is what I get for skimping on my research and pulling numbers out of my ass. I apologize to everyone for the error, I'll fix it tomorrow.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Just stumbled across this timeline, despite the fact that this is rather horrible politically (well for me at least), I'm very impressed with the detail on both US and international events.

On a related note, do Tony Abbott and the Coalition survive the 2016 election in Australia in this timeline? Noted Harper and Cameron's fates, particularly Cameron's, but was wondering how their fellow Commonwealth leader fared.

[KingSweden]

Just stumbled across this timeline, despite the fact that this is rather horrible politically (well for me at least), I'm very impressed with the detail on both US and international events.

On a related note, do Tony Abbott and the Coalition survive the 2016 election in Australia in this timeline? Noted Harper and Cameron's fates, particularly Cameron's, but was wondering how their fellow Commonwealth leader fared.

I'm aiming for a January 2017 election for Tony Abbott... as for whether they survive, you'll just have to wait and see speaking of which, how exactly does the Australian Senate work? Are they directly elected too?

[Maxwell]

Hanna losing probably means the rest of them lose too, considering he was unopposed this cycle. Great level of detail nevertheless.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

New Jersey

Presidential: Hillary Clinton carries New Jersey with 61% of the vote, the highest percentage for a Democratic candidate in the state since 1964. Cruz's camp blames Christie not campaigning enthusiastically for him in the state for the lopsided margin, though Christie counters that Cruz barely ever visited the state, with Cruz (rightfully, in most pundits' opinions) focusing his attention on swing states instead.

NJ-2: Frank LoBiondo is defeated at last, losing by only 312 votes to Bill Hughes, Jr., the son of his predecessor. It is considered one of the biggest upsets of the night. D+1.

NJ-3: Despite heavy Democratic investment in this district, Tom MacArthur survives a rematch against Aimee Belgard, winning this time by 52-47 instead of by an 11 point margin.

All other congressional incumbents are reelected, and there are no retirements.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 75
Cruz/Portman: 0

[KingSweden]

Hanna losing probably means the rest of them lose too, considering he was unopposed this cycle. Great level of detail nevertheless.

I'll admit not knowing much about New York politics. I wanted to have a Dem recruiting flop here or there, hence Zeldin making it, but I wasn't sure if Gibson would survive or not. I know his district is the most D-friendly of them all, figured he was just a solid politician.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Not bad KingSweeden. My only nitpick is Super Bowl 50. Colts beat Seahawks 21-20 on a last second Luck pass to Reggie Wayne instead of last minute Wilson touchdown. Still keep it coming.

[KingSweden]

Not bad KingSweeden. My only nitpick is Super Bowl 50. Colts beat Seahawks 21-20 on a last second Luck pass to Reggie Wayne instead of last minute Wilson touchdown. Still keep it coming.

There's always next year thanks for reading!

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Maryland

Presidential: Cruz, a bad fit ideologically for the (Altas) red state to begin with and with many federal employees still remembering and blaming him for the 2013 government shutdown, is hammered in Maryland, with Clinton winning 64.7 percent of the vote, one of her highest totals in the country and continuing her impressive dominance in the Northeast.

US Senator: In a surprise to no one, John Sarbanes is elected to replace Barbara Mikulski, keeping the streak of Democratic members of the 3rd House District being elevated to the Senate alive. The GOP recruits Bob Ehrlich, who rather reluctantly agrees to run and is regarded as their best-possible candidate. After dispatching of David Craig in the primary, Ehrlich loses to Sarbanes 68%-31%, after Maryland GOP officials had plugged the race as a potential reach state for them to go on the offensive in.

US House: All House incumbents are reelected, In open-seat Maryland 03, there is a rematch of the 2013 Annapolis mayoral race, as Josh Cohen defeats his successor and the man that defeated him, Mike Pantelides, 58-40. Pantelides, a moderate Republican, is cited as "one of the most impressive, consensus-based politicians in Maryland history" and the race is said to give him exposure that he can use in the future, with Governor Larry Hogan suggesting he is a potential future Governor.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 85
Cruz/Portman: 0

[KingSweden]

United States election, 2016

Delaware

Presidential: With a Gubernatorial campaign in full swing and Joe Biden campaigning locally, Clinton romps yet again, winning all three counties and taking the state 60.1% to 39.7%.

DE Governor: Beau Biden defeats Colin Bonini and is elected Governor of Delaware with 64% of the vote.

DE Legislature: Democrats expand their majority in both houses.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 88
Cruz/Portman: 0

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Just stumbled across this timeline, despite the fact that this is rather horrible politically (well for me at least), I'm very impressed with the detail on both US and international events.

On a related note, do Tony Abbott and the Coalition survive the 2016 election in Australia in this timeline? Noted Harper and Cameron's fates, particularly Cameron's, but was wondering how their fellow Commonwealth leader fared.

I'm aiming for a January 2017 election for Tony Abbott... as for whether they survive, you'll just have to wait and see speaking of which, how exactly does the Australian Senate work? Are they directly elected too?

The Australian Senate is a directly-elected body, 40 members (half of the 72 state members, plus the four territorial members) are up at each election, aside from House-only elections. Senators are elected by proportional representation in each state/territory.

You can read more about the Senate and its voting system here.

[Türkisblau]

I'm liking it so far, especially the bit about Martin Heinrich; I remembering volunteering for him briefly about 6 years ago, nice guy.

I was split between him and Heather Wilson for Senate as she is one of the few Republicans that I admire.

P.S. Think about Wilson for something future in a timeline

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Pennsylvania

Presidential: Clinton defeats Cruz 53-46, her narrowest margin in the Northeast. Cruz outperforms typical GOP numbers in southern, central and Western PA, where he campaigned with Portman on his support for expanded energy production, but underpolled in suburban Philadelphia (particularly in crucial Bucks and Montgomery), where Clinton runs up healthy margins and blows him out in Philadelphia, which sees Obama '08 levels of turnout.

PA Senate: With neither candidate facing serious primary opposition, Joe Sestak faces off against US Senator Pat Toomey in the marquee Senate race of the cycle. Though Toomey narrowly leads in polling for much of the summer, the race starts to break for Sestak in early September as Clinton expands her Presidential lead and he defeats Toomey by a mirror-image 52-48, roughly the same margin as his own loss in 2010. D+1.

PA-2: Chaka Fattah resigns in early 2015 and is replaced by Philadelphia DA Seth Williams in a special election. Williams faces former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter in the 2016 primary, winning by a surprisingly large margin, and coasts to a full term in his own right in the fall.

PA-6: First term Congressman Ryan Costello faces State Senator Judy Schwank in the general election. With the Clinton campaign pouring millions into the Philly suburbs, Costello is narrowly defeated by Schwank, 50.2-49.5. D+1.

PA-7: Pat Meehan attracts State Rep. Matt Bradford as his opponent, and the race is hard-fought, with the Clinton campaign's heavy investments in the Delaware Valley threatening to sink the three-term incumbent. Meehan is unable to run significantly ahead of the Cruz ticket, however, and loses 51-48 in the second-narrowest race in Pennsylvania. D+1.

PA-8: After the retirement of Mike Fitzpatrick, former Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley enters the race and faces former US Rep. Patrick J. Murphy, who represented the seat from 2007-2011 and had both defeated and been defeated by Fitzpatrick. In another tight suburban Philly race, Cawley is defeated 52-48 by Murphy, who returns to Congress after a six year absence. D+1.

PA-14: Michael Doyle retires from Congress after eleven terms, and the primary pits former (and controversial) Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl against State Rep. Paul Costa. In the primary, Costa brings up the numerous controversies during the Ravenstahl administration, while the former Mayor cites his youth and rigor. It is one of the ugliest primaries of the year, and Ravenstahl narrowly wins over the veteran Costa. In this heavily Democratic district, Ravenstahl cruises in the general.

PA-15: Charlie Dent faces Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski, recruited (as many Democratic candidates) as part of the DCCC's "Mayor Majority" program. Pawlowski runs a spirited campaign but fails to unseat the veteran Dent, who is the lone survivor of PA's Republicans in vulnerable districts. Dent wins 53-46.

All other House incumbents, particularly Republicans in the inner part of the state, are elected by broad margins.

PA State Legislature: Democrats pick up one Senate seat, reducing the GOP majority to 29-21, but pick up 14 House seats, narrowing the GOP majority to 105-98. In both cases, Democrats defeat many moderate Republicans, leading to smaller and more conservative GOP caucuses.

PA Row Officers: Kathleen Kane is reelected to a second term as AG despite some ethics questions, Eugene DePasquale is reelected as State Auditor by a landslide, and Josh Shapiro is elected State Treasurer narrowly over State Senator Patrick Browne.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 108
Cruz/Portman: 0

[KingSweden]

I'm liking it so far, especially the bit about Martin Heinrich; I remembering volunteering for him briefly about 6 years ago, nice guy.

I was split between him and Heather Wilson for Senate as she is one of the few Republicans that I admire.

P.S. Think about Wilson for something future in a timeline

On that same note, do you know anything about how special elections in New Mexico work? (Not to give anything away, of course, but... well, IF Clinton/Heinrich were to win, does Martinez pick his successor?)

Thanks for reading, btw!

[KingSweden]

Just stumbled across this timeline, despite the fact that this is rather horrible politically (well for me at least), I'm very impressed with the detail on both US and international events.

On a related note, do Tony Abbott and the Coalition survive the 2016 election in Australia in this timeline? Noted Harper and Cameron's fates, particularly Cameron's, but was wondering how their fellow Commonwealth leader fared.

I'm aiming for a January 2017 election for Tony Abbott... as for whether they survive, you'll just have to wait and see speaking of which, how exactly does the Australian Senate work? Are they directly elected too?

The Australian Senate is a directly-elected body, 40 members (half of the 72 state members, plus the four territorial members) are up at each election, aside from House-only elections. Senators are elected by proportional representation in each state/territory.

You can read more about the Senate and its voting system here.

Thanks!

[Maxwell]

Those Pennsylvania results hurt, but Cruz did surprisingly well in the state considering some of the results I've seen.