Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2021

Virginia

Governor: Mark Warner leads by between 15-20 points for most of the summer, until the fall, when events around the world help bring down the Democratic brand. His race with Republican nominee, Sen. Richard Stuart, tightens remarkably down the stretch of the last three months, though he regains some of his mojo in mid-October. Stuart, who was the only Republican to volunteer in the early months of the campaign when both Mark Obenshain and US Rep. Rick Morris declined to enter the race, comes close to being an "accidental Governor," but Warner prevails on election night 50-46, trailing in early returns before pulling ahead permanently late. It is a close call, much like his 2014 Senate election, and he is fortunate he did not face a superior candidate. With the win, Warner returns to the Governor's mansion he held between 2002-06, in a very different Virginia from the one he governed two decades earlier - this time, his base of support was in booming NoVA rather than the conservative Southwest. He does not run as the "NASCAR Democrat" this time. D hold.

Lt. Gov: After Tom Perriello is elected to replace Warner, the vacant position is filled by a different former Congressman: Glenn Nye, who is leaving his spot as Secretary of Commerce. With no tiebreaker needed in the State Senate, it is a mostly ceremonial role that he chooses not to seek reelection to. Eight years after losing to Ralph Northam, Aneesh Chopra emerges as the consensus Democratic nominee, while Republicans coalesce around State Senator Bryce Reeves. Reeves runs to the middle and wins a surprisingly easy victory over the awkward Chopra, 53-44 with an independent in the race. R Gain.

AG: Mark Obenshain seeks a second term as Attorney General and is easily reelected 57-40 over Delegate Michael Futrell. R hold.

House of Delegates: Despite a map drawn specifically to not favor incumbents and to remove the gerrymandering that had kept Democrats in a serious deficit in the House of Delegates, the Democrats manage to only pick up one seat, shifting the HOD to 65-35. With many more seats in D-friendly NoVA now, Republicans run competent, moderate candidates in many seats and many of their incumbents retire to add "fresh blood" to the House. It is a concerted effort to coordinate with topline candidates to rebrand the party in a state they have struggle to compete in statewide recently. Democrats, meanwhile, have several high-profile recruiting flops and in after-election scrutiny realize that their over-reliance on a hypothetical "Warner Wave" screwed them out of a stronger minority.

[KingSweden]

Looking like Fulop is the Jimmy Carter of New Jersey.

An apt way to describe it.

[rpryor03]

Looking like Fulop is the Jimmy Carter of New Jersey.

An apt way to describe it.

Woo, Tom Kean! #Kean4Prez2024/28

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2021

Municipal

Boston Mayor: The pro-development city council and the overruns and issues with the 2024 Olympics atrophy support for Marty Walsh, who faces a primary from State Senator Tony Petruccelli. In an upset, Petrucelli - fueled by progressive groups, anti-Olympics and anti-development organizations, and labor unions, defeats Walsh in a squeaker of a primary. Ironically, Petruccelli was a Menino disciple and an establishment figure in the Senate - his populist bonafides are almost completely rhetorical. In the general, he cruises to an easy election as Boston's next Mayor.

Boston City Council: Many of the pro-developer councilpeople who came to office four years earlier are swept out in a populist wave. Businesses express concern about the makeup of Boston's new city government.

Seattle Mayor: After eight years as possible America's most successful progressive Mayor - a trendsetter on the left, if you will - Ed Murray decides to retire. A massive primary is sparked in this top-two system, and first out of the primary emerges State Rep. Jessyn Farrell, a known pro-transit and progressive figure. Second in the primary is Kshama Sawant, who takes advantage of mainstream liberals splitting their vote to narrowly enter the top-two. The race initially looks like it will run down to the wire before Democrats hammer Sawant on the trail and Farrell gets the full backing of the state party, despite the Mayoralty being officially nonpartisan. Farrell wins in a landslide, 65-35, as Sawant, who has a certain niche, is unable to convince enough Seattleites that her very left-wing views are appropriate beyond the City Council.

Seattle City Council: Sawant is replaced by a lesbian mainstream liberal, and otherwise the city council is not significantly altered.

Atlanta Mayor: Kwanza Hall is easily reelected to a second term.

New York City Mayor: The Democratic primary, though featuring seven candidates, eventually boils down to Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, both of whom advance to a runoff. Though Stringer is initially thought favored, Adams manages to consolidate his Brooklyn power base and enough votes in Queens and the Bronx to overcome Stringer's substantial advantage in Manhattan and SI, winning the runoff 54-46.

Once through the primary, Adams faces State Assemblyman Joe Borelli, one of the most conservative members of the Assembly and the only Republican in an increasingly distraught NYC party willing to jump into this race. Borelli surprises many by running on a "de-zoning" platform of allowing more development, trying to outmaneuver the famously pro-development Adams on this issue, and endorses a higher minimum wage in addition to full legalization of marijuana in the city. However, he tacks right on gun issues, cutting taxes and police reform, giving him an odd mix of policy positions. Adams runs as a unifying candidate, touting his efforts to grow Brooklyn, add diverse jobs, encourage development and innovative schools, and his experience as a police officer to reach out to an NYPD which spent eight years in a fraught-to-hostile relationship with De Blasio. Adams easily wins on election day, 68-32.

New York Public Advocate: Letitia James, who left the office for a position in Eric Schneiderman's Justice Department, was replaced by Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, who sought reelection to the position in 2017. Mark-Viverito entered the race for Mayor and placed fourth in the Democratic primary, leaving this position open. After losing his run for Congress in 2020, former Assemblyman Dan Quart enters this race against WFP endorsed City Councilman Jumaane Williams and a few minor candidates. Quart's heartbreak in narrow races continues, as he is defeated in the runoff by Williams 51-49. Williams faces no opposition in the general election from the Republicans, winning 77% of the vote against a handful of independent candidates.

New York Comptroller: Queens borough President Melinda Katz is elected to fill this role, not needing a runoff in the Democratic primary and defeating two Wall Street auditors in the general with ease.

Borough Presidents: James Oddo is elected to a third and final term as Staten Island BP. Gale Brewer is elected to a third and final term as Manhattan BP. Katz is replaced as Queens BP by Assemblyman Ron Kim, a 42-year old Korean-American regarded as a rising star in the party. Adams is replaced as Brooklyn BP by term-limited City Councilman Brad Lander. In the Bronx, the interim BP who replaced Ruben Diaz Jr. does not seek another term, and instead 33-year old City Councilman Ritchie Torres, facing term limits, is elected. He is the first openly gay BP.

New York City Council: Term limits shake up much of the city council, with its needle moving even further left in Queens, the Bronx and Brooklyn. Two seats held by term-limited Republicans - one in Queens and one in Staten Island - are picked up by moderate-to-conservative Democrats, leaving only one Republican in the entire City Council, a 50-1 margin. This is what rock-bottom for NYC Republicans looks like. Intraparty dynamics amongst Democrats are now even more important.

[KingSweden]

Election analysis.

NJ.com: "Steve Flop," as he's derisively known, was an outstanding Mayor in Jersey City, presiding over and helping continue a residential and commercial boom in the city and allowing it to nearly overtake Newark as the state's largest city. He excelled at wonky, data-driven, day-to-day issues that are the purview of Mayors, and he overcame resistance from machine politicians and community groups to do it. Unfortunately, those skills did not translate to the cutthroat world of Trenton politics, where he failed to get along with ostensible allies amongst legislative Democrats and quickly alienated Republicans, who made it their mission to embarrass him at every turn once they smelt blood in the water. Fulop, elected along with historic majorities in the legislature, passed a variety of progressive priorities: mandatory sick leave, a higher minimum wage, wide protections for LGBT groups, police reform and shifted New Jersey from a property tax to a land tax. However, where he failed was in fixing the mess several consecutive gubernatorial administrations - Democratic and Republican - had left him. The Jersey Shore remained a mess close to a decade after Sandy, New Jersey's debt had a junk grade, the pension system is close to default, and one of the highest-tax states in the country still has the most expensive infrastructure and worst schools. In the end, Fulop made it clear to New Jersey voters that neither he nor the Democratic leadership in Trenton had any idea how to fix it.

Newark Star-Ledger: Mr. Kean enters office in a divided Jersey. A state where Democrats, hardened and frustrated by eight years of Chris Christie's bombast and four years of Steven Fulop's incompetence, will be a very hard sell on any of his issues. A state where Republicans, convinced that the Democratic machine is out to tar and feather them on any occasion, will demand that he presses his advantage both in the knife-edge assembly and with the bully pulpit of one of America's strongest Governorships. Kean is not a future Internet sensation like his once-friend Christie, who made a name for himself by lecturing teachers in town halls, nor is he a wonky nerd with the charisma of a wet salmon, like Fulop. He is a quiet but confident man who watched his father successfully run New Jersey exactly forty years ago and has spent his entire adult life in the inner workings of this state. This newspaper endorsed him for Governor for precisely these reasons - in a state that is rapidly approaching a point where, politically, it may be impossible to govern, Mr. Kean is quite possibly the only man with the calm temperament and executive knowledge to get anything done.

Richmond Times-Dispatch: Mark Warner returns to the Governor's mansion exactly twenty years after he won it as a "NASCAR Democrat," and he returns after a twelve-year stint in the Senate a very different man in a very different Virginia. Warner will go down in history as the most influential Virginian of the early 21st century, moving left along with his state, from when he governed as a conservative Democrat, to when he became a dealmaker in the Senate, to now, when he returns as a sort of executive prodigal son having run on a mainstream Democratic platform akin to that of Terry McAuliffe and Mark Herring. He finds himself gifted a Democratic Senate and a somewhat-less conservative House of Delegates, and this time he is not a rising star in his party on Presidential and Vice Presidential shortlists, but one of Virginia's most successful and admired public officials doing a second stint in the job he liked best before retirement.

[KingSweden]

More election analysis.

NYT: After eight volatile years of Bill de Blasio, where a populist elected to correct the divide between a city's rich and poor presided instead over one of the biggest development booms in the city's history, New York has elected a different kind of Democrat in Eric Adams. As a former police officer, Adams should be able to avoid the acrimonious, if not openly hostile, relationship between City Hall and the NYPD. Unabashedly pro-development, Adams will likely only expand NYC's boom times. Unlike De Blasio, who spent an awful amount of time cruising around the country stumping for progressive candidates - particularly in his second term, where his popularity at home slipped dramatically - Adams now has the job he has always coveted and, at 61, is unlikely to ever seek an upgrade and can focus exclusively on the task at hand. This paper endorsed Mr. Adams and is excited to see what he can achieve.

NYT (again): The New York City Council continues to trend dramatically to the left, with the Working Families' Party continuing its push to make the city a beacon for progressives. In Governor Preet Bharara, they have an ally in eliminating corruption and clientelism. In Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, they have a high-profile ally at City Hall to push for ever-higher minimum wages, reinforcing the crumbling rent control regime, and pushing for affordable housing. In Eric Adams, they have a dubious ally, potentially even an adversary, who wants to grow New York vertically above ground and horizontally underground, pushing for an expansion in the subway system and consolidating various departments and changing how city contracts are written to cut the massive costs of public works projects in the city. How the country's most liberal city council reacts to the ambitious new Mayor's program, with 50 Democrats to one lonely Republican, will be the story of the next four years.

[KingSweden]

November 2021: Senate Republicans begin to debate how to proceed with the impending Kennedy retirement - conservatives push for a plan to filibuster and delay until after the 2022 elections to prevent the balance of the Supreme Court from changing. Thune and some moderates consider the poor optics of such a plan and lean towards approving either an older liberal or a "swing justice". As overseas issues continue and the economy continues to struggle - only 71,000 jobs added in October - Thune and Speaker McCarthy want to avoid giving Democrats any ammunition to help them in the midterms one year out.

Their worries are soon dwarfed by what will come to be a seismic event in modern American history. The Clinton White House goes dark a few days before Thanksgiving, with all public appearances and events cancelled. Heinrich pardons a turkey and refuses to say what is going on, and speculation starts to swirl that President Clinton has had another stroke. Chief of Staff Terry McAuliffe gives a press conference in lieu of Heinrich or Clinton, saying that Clinton is "recovering from a health scare." Leaks over Thanksgiving weekend to the Washington Post indicate that President Clinton suffered a very severe stroke and though she has survived, she has lost feeling in much of her left side and is suffering from slurred speech. The Dow Jones industrial average shaves off 917 points on Monday, November 29, 2021 as the news media wonders "Who is running America?" Heinrich acknowledges in a press conference that day that yes, President Clinton survived a severe stroke, worse than the one that nearly killed her a year before, and that doctors are tending to her. The Dow drops another 400 points the next day.

November 2021 (continued): It is suggested that Israel is coordinating its Syria policy with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, using their assistance to covertly attack not only Sunni militias but military installations throughout the country. A bombing attack against Hezbollah accidentally kills 114 civilians. Iranian special forces are spotted fighting Sunni militias in Iraq, which Turkey is now accused of arming and backing to bulwark against Syria, Iran and the Kurds. Fighting continues in Catalonia. Another crisis inflames in late November after the Chinese Navy sinks a Vietnamese corvette just two days after President Clinton leaves public view. Japanese intelligence indicates that the provocative measure may be as a result of recent rumors that the North Korean regime is close to being toppled by its military after a bad crop harvest has caused mass starvation, even within military ranks.

[KingSweden]

December 2, 2021 - President Hillary Clinton Resigns

Clinton appears for the first time in ten days on December 1, 2021 to speak slowly and halting from prepared remarks from the Oval Office: "My fellow Americans... It is with heavy heart that I regret to inform you that ten days ago I suffered a severe stroke. This is my second stroke in less than one year. The recovery from that first episode was different, and this time it will be even more so. With the challenges we face today, both at home and abroad, America needs a President and Commander in Chief who is fully lucid, fully capable of taking on these challenges. With the attention I will need to commit towards my recovery, with the energy I must devote to coming back from this stroke, I cannot serve as President to the best of my ability. It is for that reason that I have informed the Secretary of State of my intention to resign the office of the Presidency effective noon tomorrow, December 2nd. It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President, and I appreciate the thoughts and prayers I have been extended over the last year as I have struggled and fought to recover, so I can struggle and fight for you, the American people. God bless you, and God bless the United States of America."

The next day, Clinton submits her resignation to Secretary of State Russ Feingold in the Green Room. She is wheeled out in her wheelchair to Marine One on the snowy South Lawn along with her husband, daughter and now-President Martin Heinrich, and she waves through the window to the well-wishers lined up outside the White House fence as the helicopter returns the Clintons to their family home in Chataqua. Several senior advisers stay for Heinrich's inauguration.

Heinrich, Feingold and Chief Justice John Roberts convene in the East Room, where the press, congressional leadership and most of the Cabinet are waiting. Roberts administers the oath of office to Martin Trevor Heinrich, the 46th President of the United States.

Heinrich then addresses the room with a brief inaugural address: "Today, I have taken the oath of office of the Presidency of the United States. I do so with full recognizance of the difficult job I have before me. With turmoil around the world and ordinary people struggling here at home, it is a tremendous burden I have assumed today. But I take on this burden with open eyes and with excitement, to join a fraternity only forty-four men and one brave, courageous woman have had the tremendous privilege to join. It is humbling, the trust and responsibility given to me today by our Constitution, and the American people. The task I assume is one I was always aware I may have to, for such is the responsibility of the Vice President. I was called upon by my country to serve, and serve my country I shall. In this sad hour, as we watch our President of five years leave the White House to focus on her health and family, I ask for your blessings, both silent and public. As only the second President to assume the office following the resignation of his predecessor, I turn to the wise and noble words of the only other man to share my experience: For I know that you have not elected me with your ballot, I ask instead that you confirm me with your prayers. Thank you, and God Bless you, and God bless the United States of America."

According to reports out of the White House, Heinrich then convenes senior staff and asks his advisers to immediately begin vetting potential Vice Presidential candidates. He asks former VP Chief of Staff Gary King stay on as Senior Adviser and asks Terry McAuliffe to stay on as WHCOS through the midterms. Heinrich then meets with all present Cabinet members and asks everyone loyal to the Clintons to hold off on resigning until after the midterms. The next day, he meets with Congressional leadership, huddling in particular with Speaker McCarthy and Minority Leader Thune to reintroduce himself to GOP leaders with a midterm less than a year away and Kennedy's replacement needing to be picked within the next two months.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I can almost hear IceSpear crying.

[Türkisblau]

So Bill won't go full Edith Wilson?

Anyway, this should make for some really interesting midterm elections.

[KingSweden]

December 2021: Heinrich's ascension to the Presidency halts the stock market sell-off. GOP leaders huddle over how to proceed, with Thune advocating waiting to crank up the midterm machine until next year due to Heinrich's swell of public support and strong approval ratings - the sympathy factor is strong - while McCarthy, who already has his majority, unlike Thune, wants to start chipping away at Heinrich's numbers immediately, especially with Republicans in such good position. The November jobs numbers clear 100,000, giving Heinrich another temporary boost. In late December, he announces that he intends to nominate 9th Circuit Court judge Michelle Friedland to replace Anthony Kennedy. He emphasizes her moderate credentials (she clerked for Sandra Day O'Connor and was still close to the former Justice) and that she comes from the same court that produced Kennedy. Republicans breathe a sigh of relief that Heinrich did not pick somebody more liberal, though they are frustrated that he tapped a young moderate (Friedland is only 50) rather than an old liberal like they had hoped. Though Thune makes it known that he is publicly opposed to a filibuster of the Friedland nomination, conservative groups and prominent House Republicans start to whip up opposition to replacing Kennedy during a Democratic Senate, arguing in favor of keeping the seat empty until Republicans can get a more favorable justice. 2021 has one of the weakest Christmas shopping seasons in years.

December 2021 (continued): Tensions continue to escalate in the South China Sea as China mobilizes its navy after Vietnamese and Filipino boats surround small islands that China has competing claims over them with. Heinrich calls Xi Jinping and manages to negotiate a drawback from the contested islands for a sixty-day period, and sends to carrier groups to the South China Sea to enforce it. Behind the scenes, Heinrich organizes agreements with the Philippines and Australia to base carriers in Darwin and Manila for the time being. Catalonian independence leader Oriol Junquerias is arrested in Barcelona, starting massive protests. A Christmas Eve protest in London for Scottish independence goes peacefully, but a continuation the next day turns violent after two young hoodlums in the protest attack a London policeman, triggering a massive response that eventually devolves into teargas and armored vehicles. In response to the "Christmas Day Crisis," Alex Salmond makes a Jacques Parizeau-esque speech before a mass rally in Edinburgh where he thunders, "Do the English want another Belfast?" The remarks are seen as a direct threat from Scottish nationalists to incite violence and effectively ends Salmond's career. George Osborne, on Boxing Day, makes a speech where he declares, "The United Kingdom will never divide. Devolution is working, but the SNP don't care about devolution, they care about power. They can harp about socialism and English meddling, but their record is almost as conservative as ours and they have all the power of an independent state at this point. The SNP moves the goal every time we negotiate. They are untrustworthy. They will not get another concession or audience from me." Though in England the speech is well received, boosting Osborne's sagging poll numbers, in Scotland it prompts massive outrage. However, the violent rhetoric of Salmond and other senior SNP leaders turns off many younger voters they have been relying on.

And now, for Sports: Orlando City SC wins its second MLS Cup as it defeats the San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 at home. Michigan quarterback Ryan Thompson wins the Heisman Trophy despite his team not making the playoffs. In the FIFA Club World Cup in Portugal, Liverpool adds to its silverware collection by defeating host nation champion Sporting CP on penalty kicks in the final.

[BigVic]

The 2nd President to resign and the first due to personal health issues. This timeline gets interesting from here.

[KingSweden]

The Heinrich Veepstakes - Politico

President Martin Heinrich, in office less than a month, has promised to unveil his choice for Vice President in the first week of January. Here is Politico's rundown of the top potential choices, with the odds of selection included.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York - 3/2

If rumors from the White House and Senate are correct, we can more or less say hello to the first female to hold the office of Vice President. Gillibrand, who replaced Hillary Clinton as Senator in 2009, would keep the balance of the Clinton/Heinrich ticket - Heinrich paired with a female from New York state - and allow Heinrich to tap a Senator from a state with a Democratic Governor, keeping the balance in the Senate the same as crucial votes on a new Supreme Court justice approach this winter. Gillibrand, elected to the House in 2006 as a conservative, upstate Democrat with a fiscally moderate streak and a record on gun rights that infuriated liberals, was elected with the broadest margin in New York Senate and history in 2012 and has proven a savvy politician, making a name for herself on issues as broad as LGBT rights and sexual assault in the military. Since coming to the Senate, she has become a fairly orthodox Democrat on most issues and there is no faction of the party that would staunchly oppose her nomination. While she is still fairly moderate on gun rights, Heinrich is as well, and gun control has been a loser for Democrats for close to three decades, anyways.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker - 3/1

Booker was, presumably, gearing up for a Presidential run in 2024 before Clinton's issues this year, when it became clear that Heinrich would be the front-runner come hell or high water. Now that he is the incumbent, Booker would fit well into a Heinrich administration, as they are roughly the same age and Booker brings with him the cachet of having his fingerprints on major civil rights legislation, being an ethnic majority in a party where identity politics matters and an abundance of charisma. However, progressive groups that are high-fiving over the ascension of Heinrich would probably balk at the famously pro-business Booker, and Heinrich may harbor reservations of sharing a ticket with a man who has a nasty habit of going off script and often looking out for himself to the detriment of political allies.

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar - 4/1

Klobuchar is likable, smart, and has been elected three times in Minnesota by crushing margins. As a woman and a Midwesterner with broad support in the Senate, she brings several strong attributes to the administration, including a folksy charisma, popularity in a crucial region and strong policy knowledge. Despite this, Klobuchar is believed to be more interested in eventually standing for Senate Majority Leader. While she would likely accept an offer if given to her, there are candidates more openly seeking the job that Heinrich could look at instead.

California Senator Alex Padilla - 6/1

A Hispanic who has been elected in a major state, Padilla is roughly Heinrich's age and surprised many when a leaked shortlist of contenders emerged from the West Wing included his name. Padilla is not known to harbor any Presidential ambitions, unlike his colleague Senator Eric Garcetti and California's Governor, Gavin Newsom, but that may be the reason he is being considered. An unlikely choice, particularly considering Padilla's short experience in Washington - Heinrich will likely want a more tried hand in the administration.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer - 7/1

A Governor as opposed to a Senator, Whitmer - a left-wing firebrand closer to the UAW and AFL-CIO than any other major Democrat - would delight the party's progressive base. Her short tenure in Michigan - not having yet finished her first term - would invite Palin comparisons, but it would be a bold choice by Heinrich and indicate what direction he anticipates his next three years going.

[KingSweden]

College Football Playoff

Non-Playoff Bowls

2021 Fiesta Bowl: Texas defeats Arizona State
2021 Peach Bowl: Auburn defeats Cincinnati
2022 Rose Bowl: Michigan defeats USC
2022 Sugar Bowl: Florida defeats Oklahoma

Playoff Bowls

2021 Cotton Bowl: (1) Ohio State defeats (4) Washington
2021 Orange Bowl: (3) Florida State defeats (2) Georgia
College Football Championship in Los Angeles: Ohio State defeats Florida State

Ohio State is your 2021 NCAA College Football Champion! It is Urban Meyer's third title at Ohio State, first to feature an undefeated team and ties him at five national titles with former LSU and Alabama coach Nick Saban.

[free my dawg]

Good timeline so far, but just a quick note - Nancy Stiles would be in her 80s by 2022, so there's no real chance she could be the nominee in NH.

[KingSweden]

Good timeline so far, but just a quick note - Nancy Stiles would be in her 80s by 2022, so there's no real chance she could be the nominee in NH.

She's THAT old? Wow, no kidding. Thank you. Wikipedia didn't have an age, so I just figured she was pushing sixty or so.

[KingSweden]

Some quick catchup notes:

• As Sawx pointed out, Nancy Stiles is apparently in her 80s at this point, so she will not be the nominee for anything. Please ignore.
• I forgot to do an entry for Mayor of Detroit. Lieutenant Governor Coleman Young II runs for Mayor and is elected in a landslide in both the primary and general, following in his father's footsteps.
• Durban, SA is given the 2028 Summer Olympics.

And now, for your scheduled programming...

January 2022: It's Gillibrand. Heinrich announces at a press conference in New York City that he will appoint Kirsten Gillibrand as the 50th Vice President of the United States and asks the Senate to have her confirmed by his SOTU on February 11th. Conservative groups start to coalesce against Friedland, but there are probably enough Republican votes to avoid a filibuster on ending debate, and her passage is narrowly likely to win in a floor vote, as no Democrats are wavering against her and several Republicans - Lindsey Graham, Jon Huntsman and Jeff Flake included - signal that they will vote for her provided that she does not disqualify herself in the hearings. The hearings begin and Friedland comes off as cheerful, competent and smart. She emphasizes that she views Roe v. Wade as "settled law" but doesn't believe it would exclude certain restrictions on unlimited access. However, she gets outside groups in a panic when she mentions that Citizens United is a "dubious law" and that she would support overturning it. Calls for a filibuster only heighten from groups most affected by such an outcome. Gillibrand's hearings, meanwhile find some theater as her old work for tobacco firms and the business dealings of her old law firm and her husband come to light, but not enough to disqualify her. She passes before Friedland, being confirmed by the Senate in rapid succession, 80-17, before the end of the month. She is sworn in at the Naval Observatory by Chief Justice John Roberts, creating a vacancy for her seat.

January 2022 (continued): Negotiations begin in earnest in SE Asia over Chinese territorial incursions, with Xi taking a hard line on the South China Sea. Feingold spends two straight weeks traveling from hotspot to hotspot. In the UK, Osborne's numbers surge in England after his December speech, while in Scotland, nationalists start to divide between a true left-wing faction frustrated with the governing record of and violent rhetoric from certain SNP leaders, while a more stridently nationalist faction starts to revolve around defending Salmond, who has been pilloried since the Christmas Day Crisis and compared to pre-1998 Gerry Adams. Greece elects a weak To Potami-ND government. Syrian forces withdraw from the Sunni heartland, leaving much of Anbar and eastern Syria an ungoverned zone run by rival militias fighting each other as much as the governments. A shallow 7.7 earthquake shakes Iran, killing 800.

And now, for Sports: The Pittsburgh Steelers defeat defending champion Indianapolis in OT on the road to advance to Super Bowl LVI in Miami. The Atlanta Falcons knock off the aging, last-hurrah Seattle Seahawks at home to advance to their first Super Bowl in two decades. Paul Pogba is awarded the Ballon d'Or.

 

[MichaelRbn]

I'm pretty sure the 25th Amendment requires confirmation of a vice-presidential nominee by both houses of Congress.

[rpryor03]

I'm pretty sure the 25th Amendment requires confirmation of a vice-presidential nominee by both houses of Congress.

That it does.

[free my dawg]

Good timeline so far, but just a quick note - Nancy Stiles would be in her 80s by 2022, so there's no real chance she could be the nominee in NH.

She's THAT old? Wow, no kidding. Thank you. Wikipedia didn't have an age, so I just figured she was pushing sixty or so.

Yeah - 73. Kind of surprised me too.

[KingSweden]

My blanket research-related mea culpa - any updates posted prior to 8 am PT are done in the morning, before I head to work, when I have not had my coffee yet. Please excuse any editorial miscues.

[KingSweden]

Another correction - I noticed in June 2019 that Scalize leaves leadership and is replaced by Patrick McHenry. That leaves this as the GOP house leadership:

Speaker: K. McCarthy
Majority Leader: C. McMorris-Rodgers
Majority Whip: P. McHenry
Chief Deputy Whip: P. Roskam
Caucus Chair: T. Price
Caucus Vice-Chair: L. Messer
Policy Committe Chair: L. Jenkins
NRCC Chair: T. Rooney

[KingSweden]

Time for maps!

Virginia State Senate 2020 - After failing to take the Governorship, Virginia Republicans agree to this "fair fight" compromise map after getting a fairly favorable House map:



SD12: M 49.8-49.3 (Pure Tossup) (keeping in  mind demographic changes and growth in Loudoun County)
SD13: M 57-40 (Safe R)
SD14: M 58-41 (Safe R)
SD15: M 52-46 (Likely R)
SD16: M 51-47 (Likely R)
SD17: M 50-48 (Tossup) (this is Lynwood Lewis' district)
SD29: M 56-42 (Safe R)
SD30: O 58-40 (Safe D)
SD31: M 59-39 (Safe R)
SD32: M 60-38 (Safe R)
SD33: M 50-48 (Tossup/Tilt R)
SD34: M 54-44 (Likely R)
SD35: M 61-37 (Safe R)
SD36: M 63-35 (Safe R)
SD37: M 54-44 (Safe R)
SD38: M 51-47 (Likely R)
SD39: M 55-43 (Likely/Safe R)

With a NoVA closeup:



SD1: O 72-26 (Safe D)
SD2: O 69-29 (Safe D)
SD3: O 65-34 (Safe D)
SD4: O 65-34 (Safe D)
SD5: O 55-43 (Likely D)
SD6: O 58-40 (Safe D)
SD7: O 62-37 (Safe D)
SD8: O 55-43 (Likely D)
SD9: O 63-35 (Safe D)
SD10: O 53-46 (Leans/Tilt D)
SD11: O 55-43 (Likely D)

And a Hampton Roads/Richmond Close Up:



SD18: O 50-48 (Tossup)
SD19: O 55-44 (Likely/Lean D)
SD20: M 52-47 (Likely R)
SD21: O 69-30 (Safe D)
SD22: O 58-40 (Likely D)
SD23: O 67-32 (Safe D)
SD24: O 60-39 (Safe D)
SD25: M 54-44 (Safe R)
SD26: M 54-44 (Safe R)
SD27: O 66-32 (Safe D)
SD28: O 67-32 (Safe D)
SD40: O 56-43 (Likely D)

Safe/Likely R - 17
Safe/Likely D - 20
Tossup - 3

Democrats start here with a slight advantage, though in low turnout off-off-year elections they have several seats vulnerable to potential Republican challengers, particularly in the Hampton Roads region. At the same time, a very good Democratic year could yield up to 24 or 25 Democratic state senators.

(As always, map-making is not my forte. Feel free to leave any comments or criticisms of my maps.)

[KingSweden]

Virginia Congressional Map for 2020



CD 1: O 67-31 (Safe D) (43% Black, 44% White - Minority-Plurality)
CD 2: M 49.9-49.3 (Tossup/Tilt R)
CD 3: O 64-35 (Safe D) (44% Black, 45% White - Minority-Plurality)
CD 4: M 54-44 (Safe R)
CD 5: M 56-42 (Safe R)
CD 6: M 56-42 (Safe R)
CD 7: M 51-48 (Lean R)
CD 8: O 67-41 (Safe D)
CD 9: M 58-40 (Safe R)
CD 10: O 50-49 (Tossup/Tilt D)
CD 11: O 59-39 (Safe D)
CD 12: O 58-40 (Safe D)

Kenny Alexander (1) and Don McEachin's (3) districts remain minority-plurality and safe. Will Sessoms' district becomes slightly friendlier to the Republican (R-2). Robert Hurt's (4) district is now considerably safer without Charlottesville. Rick Morris is drawn into McEachin's district, leaving a potential opening in CD 5. Goodlatte (6) and Griffith (9) both stay in safe districts with little change. Wittman's district is, on paper, more competitive (7). Don Beyer ( and Gerry Connolly (11) effectively swap districts based on where the lines are drawn - Connolly's home is just inside the 8th. Jennifer Wexton's (10) seat is slightly less Republican, but still very competitive as it encircles most of NoVA (demographic changes and growth in Loudoun and Stafford County can only help her). A totally open 12th district emerges in the remainder of Fairfax and all of Prince William/Manassas to be filled by a Democrat.

[windjammer]

Virginia Congressional Map for 2020



CD 1: O 67-31 (Safe D) (43% Black, 44% White - Minority-Plurality)
CD 2: M 49.9-49.3 (Tossup/Tilt R)
CD 3: O 64-35 (Safe D) (44% Black, 45% White - Minority-Plurality)
CD 4: M 54-44 (Safe R)
CD 5: M 56-42 (Safe R)
CD 6: M 56-42 (Safe R)
CD 7: M 51-48 (Lean R)
CD 8: O 67-41 (Safe D)
CD 9: M 58-40 (Safe R)
CD 10: O 50-49 (Tossup/Tilt D)
CD 11: O 59-39 (Safe D)
CD 12: O 58-40 (Safe D)

Kenny Alexander (1) and Don McEachin's (3) districts remain minority-plurality and safe. Will Sessoms' district becomes slightly friendlier to the Republican (R-2). Robert Hurt's (4) district is now considerably safer without Charlottesville. Rick Morris is drawn into McEachin's district, leaving a potential opening in CD 5. Goodlatte (6) and Griffith (9) both stay in safe districts with little change. Wittman's district is, on paper, more competitive (7). Don Beyer ( and Gerry Connolly (11) effectively swap districts based on where the lines are drawn - Connolly's home is just inside the 8th. Jennifer Wexton's (10) seat is slightly less Republican, but still very competitive as it encircles most of NoVA (demographic changes and growth in Loudoun and Stafford County can only help her). A totally open 12th district emerges in the remainder of Fairfax and all of Prince William/Manassas to be filled by a Democrat.

Just curious, why do you believe CD 10 is toss up tilt dem?