Era of the New Majority

[badgate]

Great Ohio update!

Querstion: when you do the Texas map, will you be able to provide close-ups of DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso? Basically all the metro areas where you need to zoom in to see the districts.

[KingSweden]

Great Ohio update!

Querstion: when you do the Texas map, will you be able to provide close-ups of DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso? Basically all the metro areas where you need to zoom in to see the districts.

I haven't done Texas because my wimpy little laptop crashes on anything bigger than a Pennsylvania or Illinois, actually. I'm actively soliciting Texas, Cali and Florida maps for that very reason.

But ideally, yes. Ohio I found didn't require a zoom, but many states with smaller districts obviously will.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Indiana

IN-Sen: Todd Young defeats former Superintendent Glenda Ritz in a relative cakewalk, as Democrats don't do much of anything to challenge the popular, fairly moderate young Senator.

(The House districts see only modest changes at most.)

IN-2: John Broden is finally taken down, defeated by State Senator Ryan Mishler 54-44. R+1.

IN-3: Dennis Kruse, at 76, retires after three terms in the House, per his pledge in 2016. State Senator Jim Banks is elected to replace him as Democrats decide not to contest this Safe R seat.

All other incumbents are reelected.

IN Legislature: The Senate stays at 35-15, and Republicans pick up one more seat in the House to go to 66-34.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Michigan

MI-Gov: "Anybody but Gretchen" is the GOP slogan here, where they spend years plotting their takedown of Gretchen Whitmer. The task falls to John Moolenaar, who is drawn out of his district. Moolenaar - optimistically bandied about by the MI GOP as a top-tier, moderate recruit despite being a fairly dull campaigner - does not do well against the fiery Whitmer campaign, which despite her polarizing image manages to beat Moolenaar by a comfortable 53-45 margin.

(Reminder Map)



MI-1: Whitmer's reelection campaign does not quite reach the northern half of the state, where she is deeply unpopular and Moolenaar shifts resources to help seize this open seat after Jerry Cannon fulfills his campaign promise to serve only three terms. Democratic State Rep. John Baker is defeated by a surprisingly wide margin by first-time candidate Justin Pennington, a 37-year old former Army Ranger who, unlike Baker, has the advantage of being a "yooper." R+1.

MI-2: Huizenga reelected.

MI-3: Amash, now in a slightly-less Republican district, is challenged by State Rep. Ed Pastore. He defeats his challenger 54-45.

MI-4: Fred Upton, the dean of the delegation, is reelected once again to another term in Congress.

MI-5: Dan Kildee, in a slightly-less Democratic district, is easily reelected.

MI-6: (Since Miller is retiring this year, we'll retroactively have Phil Pavlov be the incumbent here). Pavlov reelected.

MI-7: Bernero reelected.

MI-8: Walberg reelected once again.

MI-9: David Trott moves to this Safe R district, beats back a wide-open primary challenge, and is reelected with little issue.

MI-10: Steve Bieda runs in this district, where he wins fairly easily.

MI-11: Brenda Lawrence is reelected in this district.

MI-12: Debbie Dingell reelected.

MI-13: Tupac Hunter reelected in this district.

MI Legislature: The gerrymanders hold - Republicans keep the Senate, Democrats expand their House margin to 60-49-1. Brenda Jones becomes the first female Speaker and the first African-American speaker in Michigan history with one term left in her service.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Wisconsin

(I'm skipping Illinois, for now, since I haven't drawn the map yet and it will crash my computer.)

WI-Gov: Chris Larson faces a sturdy challenge from Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, who leaves the chamber after 28 years in the Senate. The race is neck-and-neck through the fall until Fitzgerald narrowly pulls ahead in late October as Wisconsin's polarized midterm environment narrowly jams Larson, who loses by a mere 3,000 votes. R gain.

WI-Sen: Speaker Robin Vos challenges Ron Kind to form a "super-ticket" with Fitzgerald. Kind, who the voters actually voted for, runs a terrific campaign in the outstate and narrowly edges Vos in a tight race, winning 51-48.



WI-7: Nick Milroy is finally defeat when he is knocked out by State Senator Scott Krug. R+1.

The rest of the delegation is reelected.

WI Legislature: Republicans win one seat in the Senate to go to 18-15, and win two seats in the House to bump up to 57-42.

[KingSweden]

Illinois' Congressional Maps:



CD 1: M 53-44 O (Safe R)
CD 2: O 54-44 M (Lean D)
CD 3: O 50-47 M (Tossup)
CD 4: O 50-48 M (Tossup/Lean R)
CD 5: O 50-48 M (Tossup/Lean R)
CD 6: O 54-44 M (Lean D)
CD 16: O 55-43 M (Lean D)
CD 17: O 56-42 M (Likely D)



CD 7: O 56-42 M (Likely D)
CD 8: O 79-19 M (Safe D) (56% white)
CD 9: O 56-42 M (Likely D)
CD 10: O 61-37 M (Likely D)
CD 11: O 58-40 M (Safe D) (65% white)
CD 12: O 64-33 M (Safe D)
CD 13: O 81-17 M (Safe D) (69% Hispanic)
CD 14: O 86-13 M (Safe D) (62% black)
CD 15: O 94-5 M (Safe D) (68% black)

I assumed here that Obama had a major overperformance in Illinois in '08 thanks to a home state effect, so anything less than 54% for him is Lean D at best or Tossup.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Illinois

IL Gov: Bob Dold leaves his seat to run for Governor and challenge Tom Dart. Though Adam Kinzinger and Pete Roskam both make some noise about running, too, Dold eventually gets the primary field all to himself when both men decide to seek reelection instead. The race centers on Illinois - with America's highest unemployment rate at 16% - and its anemic growth, governing crises, debt defaults and atrophying population. Dold manages to leverage displeasure with the clearly-overmatched Dart and wins as a reformer, managing to avoid the elitist cues of Bruce Rauner. He wins 53-44, a surprisingly decisive margin. R+1.

IL Sen: Cheri Bustos, popular and moderate, faces no real trouble in the primary and easily beats back State Senator Kyle McCarter to earn a second term, 57-41.

(The House seats are drawn by an independent commission after a 2016 ballot measure backed by Rauner and many congressional leaders).

IL 1: Shimkus easily reelected.

IL 2: Mike Bost reelected.

IL 3: In an even friendlier district, Rodney Davis is elected once again.

IL 4: Darin LaHood cruises to another term despite his district being made much less Republican.

IL 5: Kinzinger, in a more Democrat-friendly district, has no trouble, elected with almost 60% of the vote.

IL 6: Lipinski easily wins in this district.

IL 7: Bill Foster cruises to a fairly easy win here.

IL 8: After Anita Alvarez decides to run for Illinois Attorney General rather than reelection, 36-year old State Rep. Jordan Casey (fictional) runs here instead and is elected with fair ease. There were rumors of Mayor Rahm Emanuel returning to Congress, but he announces he will seek a fourth term in February instead.

IL 9: This is where Pete Roskam settles to run, winning easily.

IL 10: Jan Schakowsky winds up in this district, which bumps Bob Dold into the Governor's race. She cruises to a landslide reelection.

IL 11: Anita Moeller wins a dominating election victory here in this district.

IL 12: State Senator Don Harmon wins election to this district.

IL 13: Luis Gutierrez wins another term in Congress.

IL 14: Napoleon Harris reelected.

IL 15: Latasha Thomas and Kwame Raoul face off in the primary after one of the BVAP districts is eliminated. Raoul wins narrowly and goes on to face zero opposition in the general.

IL 16: Randy Hultgren has no problem earning another term here.

IL 17: Mike Jacobs reelected with little issue.

IL Legislature: Republicans pick up two seats in the Senate to go to 38-21, and gain six seats in the House to jump to 59-59, effecting a split tie in the House. The Speakership will be shared by Democrats and Republicans, as will committee controls. Democrats narrowly avoid having three moderate members defect to the GOP after promising them choice committee slots.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Iowa

IA-Gov: Bill Northey faces Democratic House Speaker Charlie Isenhart in the general, whom he defeats 56-40 to earn a second term.

IA-Sen: Chuck Grassley retires after 42 years in the Senate and 48 in Congress, leaving as Iowa's longest-serving member of Congress (citation needed). The primary pits the establishment-backed State Sen. Minority Leader Pat Grassley, the retiring Senator's grandson, against Rep. Steve King, who is backed by the conservative grassroots elements that dominate the Iowa caucuses. King, whose district is made slightly more Democratic through redistricting and who is 73, pledges to serve only one term if elected. Grassley, on the other hand, promises continuity and emphasizes his youth, history of working with Democrats in the Iowa Senate, and experience learning under his grandfather. Though King is thought to dominate thanks to the enthusiasm of his base, Grassley's establishment support and prominent, popular last name helps him win the primary 50-46, with some gadflies taking the rest of the vote. It is a more decisive win than expected.

In the general, Grassley faces US Rep. Chet Culver, whom some Iowa Democrats expressed reservations about. Though not a Bruce Braley-level disaster, Culver fails to break out from the shadow of a battle of two Iowa political dynasties duking it out, with the Grassley name carrying much more cachet than that of Culver. 42 years after the original Grassley-Culver battle, the Grassleys are victorious once more. R Hold.



IA-3: Culver's retirement excites Republicans, who eye this swing district as a prime pickup amongst other opportunities in the Midwest. However, they are stymied by the entrance into the race of former NFL quarterback and State Senator Kyle Orton, who has been preparing for years for Culver's eventual retirement and has a fluid operation that keeps most other Democrats out of the primary. Former US Rep. David Young decides to challenge for his old seat, and the race is one of the hottest House contests in the country, especially as Team D struggles in the rest of the Midwest. In a major upset, after Young leads for much of the fall campaign, Orton manages to eke out a narrow 50-47 win over Young, who acknowledges his retirement from politics after the race. D hold.

IA-4: In Steve King Country, the conservative western Iowa district features a wide-open Republican primary, with eight people appearing on the eventual primary ballot. Thanks to a number of strong conservatives splitting up the right's vote, fairly moderate State Senator Megan Jones wins the primary and easily defeats State House Majority Whip Chris Hall in the fall general, winning 55-43. With her less combative and more moderate profile in a reflexively Republican district despite its friendly PVI, Jones is not expected to be a target for Democrats in the near future.

IA Legislature: Democrats lose their House majority as Republicans gain five seats to take a narrow 52-48 majority. Democrats lose one seat in the Senate to drop to 26-24.

Missouri

MO-Sen: Jason Kander is Target No. 1 for the NRSC, and they earn a strong recruit in Secretary of State Shane Schoeller. Conservative outside groups recruit Jason Smith to run, hoping for a "Battle of the Jasons" rather than a "Battle of the Secretary of States." Schoeller - hardly a Danforth moderate himself - wins over Smith, banking on his infrastructure from three statewide races and profile outside of the bootheel. Schoeller goes on to narrowly defeat Kander in a race Republicans thought he should have won by double digits, winning 51-45. A win is a win, though, and a disappointment for Democrats a year after their Governor was reelected and Clinton carried the state. R+1.

Most of Missouri's districts are essentially unchanged, with the St. Louis district growing somewhat into the suburbs once again to make up for anemic population growth.

MO-8: Cape Girardeau State Rep. Mike Angler wins the Republican primary and is easily elected in this Safe GOP district.

MO Legislature: Republicans win six seats back from the Democrats to boost their advantage to 107-56 in the House. The Senate stays 23-11.

[KingSweden]

Minnesota after 2020:





CD 1: O 61-37 M (Safe D)
CD 2: O 71-26 M (Safe D)
CD 3: O 49.3-48.9 M (Pure Tossup)
CD 4: O 49.0-49.0 M (Obama won this district with 57 votes) (Tossup/Tilt R)
CD 5: O 49.9-47.6 M (Tossup/Tilt D)
CD 6: M 53-44 O (Safe R)
CD 7: O 53-44 M (Likely D)

This map should result in 5-2 D, or 6-1 D in most situations.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Minnesota

MN Gov: Tom Emmer runs against Lori Swanson rather than face Torrey Westrom in the 6th District primary. Though there is chatter about Emmer beating Swanson early in the race, he never gains traction and Minnesota's strong D lean powers Swanson to a 53-42-4 win over Emmer and an independent candidate.

MN Congress: The rest of the now 7-member delegation is returned, including Schmit and Halvorson-Wiklund, who face strong challenges from suburban Republicans but in the D-moving and growing suburbs of Minnesota, they win by comfortable though not dominating margins.

MN Legislature: As DFL drew the map here as part of a trifecta, the maps are built to help buoy the DFL during midterm years as it will have to this decade. DFL loses two seats in the Senate to drop to 41-26, and loses eight seats, all in outstate rural areas, in the House to drop to 70-64.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

North Dakota

ND-Sen: No trouble for John Hoeven here, who is reelected once again by a thumping 70-28 margin over a Fargo-based oil investor.

ND Leg: GOP keeps Senate majority at 30-19, and expand their House majority again to a daunting 75-19..

South Dakota

SD Gov: Kristi Noem has an easy reelection this time as there is no SHS-caliber candidate on the ground to try to defeat her. She defeats a little-known State Senator.

SD Sen: Much as they would like to defeat him, Democrats struggle to find a top tier recruit against John Thune and settle for Rick Weiland once again. Thune blows Weiland out, 68-29.

SD Leg: Republicans expand their Senate majority to 30 seats, while expanding their House majority to 58 seats. It is a very bad year for Democrats in South Dakota.

[Tayya]

One little thing that does irk me about the remaps is a few of the new numberings that don't follow the historical ones. For example, Illinois's 1st District has been Chicago-centered since the Civil War. Suddenly becoming the 15th District just seems... wrong. Most of them are fine, the numbers do change around a bit, but the Illinois and Minnesota numbers do bug me.

The rest is very nice as always!

[Emperor Charles V]

Forget my past criticisms!

This is awesome! I love your redistricting!

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Nebraska

NE-Gov: Though one of the most unpopular Governors in the United States, Pete Ricketts leaves behind a decent economy in Nebraska and what minute Democratic bench there is has little hope of capturing the Governor's Mansion. Top-choice Dem Jeremy Nordquist, the Mayor of Omaha, passes on the race, leaving former State Senator Heath Mello, head of the Omaha Chamber of Commerce, to run instead. He faces Republican favorite, State Attorney General Doug Peterson, in the general, where Peterson wins by an easy 57-42.

Map Credit, once again, goes to Muon:



The whole Nebraska delegation is returned.

Kansas

KS Gov: Kris Kobach - controversial and unpopular - faces a stiff primary challenge from Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who despite being very conservative himself runs on the platform of trying to end the bloody Republican-on-Republican battles that have dominated the state for well over a decade. Schmidt narrowly edges Kobach 49-46 in a grim, brutal primary. Democrats, who did not anticipate being able to dislodge the controversial Kobach even despite his popularity, essentially cede the race to Schmidt by running a lonely State Rep against him. Schmidt wins with ease, 61-35 with an independent in the race.

KS Sen: Jerry Moran faces little real challenge, as Paul Davis chooses to punt and Democrats have an otherwise thin bench beyond their young crop of rising state legislators. Moran, running for what he pledges is his last term, wins nearly 70% of the vote, popular even among many Democrats in the state.

Map Credit Muon:



The entire delegation is returned without incident, with all four Republican incumbents winning by wide margins.

KS Legislature: The Senate is not up for election this year, so it remains 26-14 GOP. Democrats lose only one seat in the House, leaving a 73-28 majority for the Republicans. Not a bad result considering the pasting Democrats receive higher up the ballot.

Oklahoma

OK Gov: Mick Cornett, popular with moderates, most Democrats and most importantly the oil industry, stares down a primary challenge by conservatives backing TW Shannon, a former House Speaker and Senate candidate who succeeded Scott Pruitt as Attorney General of Oklahoma in 2019. Backed by Pruitt and former Governor Fallin, Shannon looks primed to take Cornett to a primary. Cornett, ostensibly one of the most liberal Governors in recent Oklahoma history (by OK standards), manages to defeat Shannon in a closed GOP primary and avoid a runoff, effectively snuffing out the young Shannon's political career after two nasty primary defeats within a decade. Democrats, who mostly support the moderate, technocratic Cornett, run conservative State Rep. Robert Kingsley, who is defeated in a landslide as many Democrats vote Cornett instead. Presidential buzz starts to swirl around Oklahoma's Governor after his big 66-33 win.

OK Sen: Popular US Senator James Lankford is reelected unopposed, with Oklahoma Democrats choosing to invest in races downballot.



OK House: All incumbents cruise to easy reelections.

OK Legislature: This is where Democratic efforts pay dividends. In growing and diversifying OKC area, they pick up two Senate seats to cut the GOP advantage to a still-massive 39-9, and in the House pick up five seats to go to 64-37 GOP. With their big losses higher up the ballot, this counts as a major success for area Democrats in this conservative state.

[Classic Conservative]

Great so far, loving it!!!

[badgate]

Here's the Senate map:

It's looking like quite a Republican night, with the GOP having won four open seats and defeating two incumbent Democrats.

[badgate]

Governor map:

We have on our hands a medium size Republican wave imo

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

New Mexico

NM Gov: Despite the GOP lean of nationwide elections and this being the only big race this year, Hector Balderas manages to bat away former ABQ mayor Richard Berry. Berry runs against Balderas by emphasizing his ability to steer the state's large, majority-Democrat city as a conservative, and attacks Balderas as an out-of-touch hyper-liberal. It is an ugly race, with Balderas' campaign running dubious smear attacks on Berry and painting him as a racist and running ads in Hispanic communities and radio insinuating that he has sympathy for the "minuteman" movement. Though the Balderas campaign is criticized by the media and many national Democrats for playing fast and loose with the truth and going ugly against Berry, the grim tactics wind up working as Balderas ekes out a 52-47 win over Berry, who looks visibly agitated in his concession speech.

(Minimal changes to House map)

NM House: All three incumbents are reelected.

NM Legislature: Republicans pick up six House seats to take the New Mexico House of Representatives despite Democrats drawing a map favorable to themselves. Conservative Jason Harper becomes Speaker of the House, presaging a showdown with the very liberal Balderas and the Democratic Senate, which is not up for election this year.

Colorado

CO Gov: Walker Stapleton is challenged by what is initially seen as the top recruit for Democrats, US Rep. Andrew Romanoff, who is also a former Speaker of the House. Romanoff runs essentially as a center-left version of the popular Stapleton, failing to truly distinguish himself from the moderate Governor who has worked well with the legislature. With Colorado's economy and population growing steadily and Stapleton being an inoffensive, popular incumbent and Romanoff failing to really excite many of the very liberal donors in CO, Stapleton easily wins reelection, 56-42. It is a disheartening blue to Democrats in this swingy, purplish state.

CO Sen: Better news for Democrats in the Senate race, however. Republicans talk big about taking out Michael Bennet this year, especially since he has to share a ticket with popular Stapleton. Bennet, with a big machine built out in the Denver area at this point, starts with a massive bank account but outside groups flood the state, groups especially angry about the way Cory Gardner went down in 2020. Bennet is prepared, unlike Mark Udall in 2014, for the coming attacks and the best Republicans can do is former State Senator Owen Hill when both Ken Buck and Gardner decide to sit this race out. Though like all Colorado races this is a close one, Bennet narrowly triumphs over Hill even as Stapleton runs hogwild higher up the ballot, winning 50-47. D hold.

Row Officers: Republicans reelected to all row offices - Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Treasurer.

CO House Reminder Map:



CO 1: Diana DeGette, now in House leadership, reelected.

CO 2: KC Becker reelected with no issue.

CO 3: Rick Lopez faces an initially stiff challenge from Pitkin County Sheriff Kurt Danes (fictional), but manages to win a second term 54-45.

CO 4: Cory Gardner becomes a rare beast - a former Senator who runs for the House just two years after defeat, thanks to Ken Buck being drawn into the new 5th. The popular, respected Gardner has no issue clearing the Republican primary and is elected to his slightly modified old district by a landslide.

CO 5: Ken Buck is initially thought to potentially face a stiff challenge here, with Adams County included in his west Weld-based district. He wins election by a wider-than-anticipated margin over State Senator Dominick Moreno, whom he defeats 55-43 in an upset. R+1.

CO 6: Doug Lamborn has no trouble here.

CO 7: Romanoff abandons this district, which leaves a tremendous opportunity for Republicans. However, they are unable to defeat former Senate Majority Leader Morgan Carroll from getting elected to replace Romanoff. D hold.

CO 8: Ed Perlmutter retires after 16 years in Congress. Though Republicans make a play for this district, State Senator Brittany Pettersen manages to narrowly defeat State Senator Lizzy Szabo 50-47 and keep the district in Democratic hands.

CO Legislature: Republicans pick up two seats in the State Senate to take a 18-17 majority. In the House, meanwhile, late ballots help Democrats keep their majority, though they fall to 35-30 after Republicans gain four seats.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Wyoming

WY Gov: Cynthia Lummis has no trouble being reelected.

WY Leg: Republicans maintain their daunting majorities in both houses of the legislatures.

Montana

MT Legislature: GOP gains one Senate seat to go to 27-23, adding to their trifecta. The House GOP gains two seats to build their majority further to 59-41.

Idaho

ID Gov: Brandon D. Woolf defeats Senate Minority Leader Eliot Werk 65-32 in a blowout.

ID Sen: Raul Labrador is elected unopposed, with Democrats completely punting on the race.



Both seats are more than R+15.

ID 1: Bob Nonini retires, allowing map-drawers to draw Northern Idaho together with Mike Simpson's Mormon-heavy Southeast Idaho. This makes Idaho 1 a purely Boise-metro seat. Out of a brutal, acrimonious primary emerges State Senator Curtis McKenzie, who tacked right in the primary and won Labrador's endorsement. He easily wins the general and will be a more conservative presence in Congress than the moderate back-bencher Nonini.

ID 2: Simpson duly reelected after surviving a primary against a Mormon priest.

ID Leg: Republicans pick up two seats in the House to jump their advantage to 57-13. Senate remains at 28-7 like it has for years.

[NeverAgain]

These are so well done, Keep going Sweden

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Arizona

AZ Gov: Ducey is term-limited out and the Republican primary turns into a bloodbath between SOS Michele Reagan, Attorney General Mark Brnovich, and US Rep. Ben Quayle. Reagan and Brnovich split the moderate vote down the middle, allowing Quayle (with Ducey's endorsement) to lock down most of the conservative wing of the primary electorate and narrowly win an ugly three-way primary in which Reagan is slandered as a "NARAL homer" and Brnovich angrily growls at Quayle during a debate that "the apple has fallen far from a pretty cruddy tree to begin with." Quayle is seen as the weakest candidate for the general out of the three and is expected to face a stiff challenge from 72-year old Democratic US Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, whose seat has become much less safe thanks to redistricting and who was the only Democrat to jump in when top-choices Ruben Gallego and David Schapira chose to punt, along with Greg Stanton, who decides at the last second not to enter the race. Kirkpatrick looks tired and worn on the campaign trail in contrast to the young, energetic Quayle, who wipes her out 59-39 in a race that was never that close. R hold.

AZ Sen: Kyrsten Sinema, America's most vulnerable Senator, faces a stiff challenge from Doug Ducey, who runs on his staunch conservative record. Sinema attacks Ducey on that same record, holding that Arizona's growth has slowed dramatically since he took office and that he has gutted schools, road programs and other important functions to appease outside groups. The dubiously popular Ducey responds mostly with conservative platitudes, and for much of the race it seems like the moderate and savvy Sinema may against all odds hang on. As the national outlook for Democrats grows bleaker in the early fall, however, Ducey pulls narrowly ahead and never looks back, winning a narrow 51-48 race, indicating that there may be quite a few Quayle/Sinema crossover voters. R+1, Republicans now have a 50-49 majority in the Senate with the LA runoff in December potentially giving them an outright majority.





In calculating Lean status for these districts, I'll assume a minor home state boost for McCain in Arizona. Still, a good map for Republicans.

CD 1: M 55-43 O (Safe R)
CD 2: M 52-46 O (Lean R)
CD 3: O 54-44 M (Likely D) (55% Hispanic)
CD 4: M 60-39 O (Safe R)
CD 5: M 58-40 O (Safe R)
CD 6: M 60-38 O (Safe R)
CD 7: O 63-35 M (Safe D) (62% Hispanic)
CD 8: M 56-42 O (Safe R)
CD 9: O 50-48 M (Tossup/Lean D)

---

AZ 1: With Kirkpatrick out, Democrats have nobody to challenge Paul Gosar, the district's new local representative, with former State Rep. Jamescita Peshlakai failing to prevent him from earning an effective pickup. R+1.

AZ 2: Martha McSally, in a much safer district, sees off Gabaldon once again.

AZ 3: Raul Grijalva retires after 20 years in Congress. Despite a PVI that suggests potential openness to Republicans, Democrats nominate term-limited LGBT Hispanic State Rep. Demion Clinco, who wins 53-45 over a local rancher and alleged Minuteman.

AZ 4: Matt Salmon, who in less than a month will be made head of the Republican Study Committee, winds up in this district, where Democrats don't even bother fielding a candidate against him.

AZ 5: With the reshuffling of some of the peripheral districts, this becomes a Safe Republican open seat. 46-year old Republican State Senator Jeff Dial, who is term limited, is elected here after a long, vicious primary.

AZ 6: With Ben Quayle's retirement, this is another Safe open seat for the GOP. 39-year old State Senator Michelle Ugenti wins here over conservative Justin Pierce, ironically a Michele Reagan-protege elected in Quayle's district.

AZ 7: Ruben Gallego has no problems on his home term.

AZ 8: Trent Franks reelected once again.

AZ 9: David Schapira, after deciding not to seek the Governorship, sees off a challenge from State Rep. Jordan Jones (fictional), whom he defeats 50-49 in one of America's tightest races. D hold.

AZ Legislature: Republicans gain one seat in the Senate to bump their majority to 17-13, and take back six House seats to expand their majority to 40-20.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Nevada

NV Gov: Joe Heck runs for this open seat, and attracts Sen. Aaron Ford as his opponent. Though Heck is expected to wipe the floor with Ford, the race is much closer than expected, with Ford only losing by 3,000 votes.

NV Sen: Term-limited Governor Mark Hutchison runs here as Brian Sandoval chooses to retire after only one term, with it being clear as day that he intends to run for President. Democrats recruit Catherine Cortez-Masto to challenge Hutchison, and though the race looks initially promising, the well-oiled "Sandy" machine pushes Hutchison over the edge at the end, 51-47. R hold.

NV-3: With Heck bolting for the Governor's mansion, Sen. Michael Roberson is easily elected to this Las Vegas suburban seat.

All other House incumbents (Amodei, Kihuen and Horsford) are returned.

NV Legislature: GOP gains two seats to take control of the State Senate, 11-10. They pick up four House seats, meanwhile, to cut their deficit to 23-19.

Utah

UT Sen: Josh Romney faces no primary trouble from the dispirited Mike Lee wing of the Utah GOP, with his popular last name, high approvals and massive cash advantage. Democrats effectively cede the race to him, and rumors start to swirl about a possible Romney '24 run.

UT House: The map stays effectively the same, with SLC split up three ways to prevent a strong Democrat from emerging from the delegation. Some of the southern part of CD 4 is ceded to CD 4. All incumbents reelected.

UT Legislature: Senate stays 23-6, Democrats lose two seats in the House to go to 60-15.

[jojoju1998]

House update, Mountain West Edition.

With this region done, here are the state-by-state delegations:

NM 2D-1R
CO 4D-4R
WY 1R-0D
MT 1R-0D
ID 2R-0D
UT 4R-0D
NV 2R-2D
AZ 6R-3D

That leaves us a regional total of 21R-11D, and a total House delegation of 167R-121D

1 question.

What happened to Tom Mcclintock.... did he retire ? Or was he defeated ?

[KingSweden]

House update, Mountain West Edition.

With this region done, here are the state-by-state delegations:

NM 2D-1R
CO 4D-4R
WY 1R-0D
MT 1R-0D
ID 2R-0D
UT 4R-0D
NV 2R-2D
AZ 6R-3D

That leaves us a regional total of 21R-11D, and a total House delegation of 167R-121D

1 question.

What happened to Tom Mcclintock.... did he retire ? Or was he defeated ?

I haven't gotten to California yet.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Washington

WA-Sen: Republicans recruit moderate former Spokane Mayor David Condon to run against Patty Murray, lacking anyone else willing to give up their seat to take the powerful incumbent on. Though Condon runs on his reforms that have helped Spokane see a major uptick in growth towards the end of the 2010s, Murray wins by a comfortable 54-46 margin on election day.





WA 1: Suzan DelBene moves so that she is inside this district's area. She faces a stiff challenge from retiring State Rep. Cary Condotta, whom she defeats only 51-49.

WA 3: Tim Leavitt finally goes down, losing by 5,000 votes to State Rep. Liz Pike. R+1.

WA 8: Mark Mullet, in a much safer district than before, is reelected in a landslide after Republicans initially thought they could take him out.

All other incumbents have no problem getting reelected.

WA Legislature: Republicans gain four seats in the House to drop Democrats to a 54-44 majority, and gain one seat in the Senate to cut their deficit to 27-22.