Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

Canadian federal election - February 2023

Jim Moore's ill-fated snap elections blow up in the Tories' face as the NDP wins its first-ever majority government, cruising to a 197-seat majority, a gain of 24 seats less than eighteen months after their best-ever performance in the fall 2021 contest. Behind Brian Mulroney's 1984 landslide, it is the second-largest majority in Canadian history by seat numbers, though of course it is proportionally a smaller share of seats. Nathan Cullen is the new Prime Minister as a result of another "Orange Wave."

The Tories lose seats in historic strongholds like Alberta's cities, many rural parts of British Columbia and Ontario, and even in the 905 suburbs. The NDP wins 77 seats in Quebec, one shy of a sweep, with only one Tory left. Justin Trudeau, who had pledged to stay in the House of Commons, is defeated by 2,000 votes in Papineau. Jim Moore is only narrowly reelected in his own riding, and he pledges to step down as leader on election night.

The final results:

NDP: 197 seats (+44) (41%)
Conservatives: 130 (-27) (36%)
Liberals: 10 seats (-16) (11%)
Greens: 1 seat (-1) (6%)
Others: 0 seats (6%)

All said, it isn't that bad of a result for the Tories, as they lose less than thirty seats and have a fairly workable opposition. For the Liberals, it is yet another existential crisis, as former Prime Minister Trudeau is defeated, they get their lowest vote and seat share in history and continue their long, painful decline. Leader David McGuinty, clearly incapable of leading the party, resigns. For the NDP, they earn over 40% of the national vote and look set to dominate Canadian politics with a substantial majority for the next four years, and possibly years more.

[KingSweden]

Analyzing the 2023 Canadian federal election

On the NDP's success:

National Post: The game may as well be called "Who Wants to Run Canada?", because at this point it appears that nobody is up to the task. From the glorious, spellbinding incompetence of Justin Trudeau to the queasily inept waffling of Jim Moore, Canada's most recent two Prime Ministers have failed to make much of an impression compared to men like Mulroney, Chretien or Harper, all historical figures who defined their eras. If one had to define the current political era, it would be the "Era of Poor Government." Canadian's have now laid their faith in the energetic and eager NDP, which has never governed before. It will be interesting to see where they go from here.

The Economist: Nathan Cullen won because he actually promised Canadians a vision - of reinforcing the cultural progressivism they pride themselves on, of a vision of a government that actually works, run by people who believe it works, and of a younger, more dynamic government that reflects the energy of Millennial and post-Millennial voters eager for change. Jim Moore promised more muddled, sort-of-center-right-but-not-really-that-conservative governing and David McGuinty promised Canadians that if they elected him Prime Minister, then he would be Prime Minister. Next to two anemic choices that seemed to want to be in government only for the sake of being in government, the NDP gave what American conservatives would call "a choice, not an echo."

The New York Times: Three months after American voters soundly rejected their center-left President in a vitriolic midterm election, Canadian voters soundly rejected their center-right Prime Minister in a vitriolic early election. The unpredictable swings in Western elections since the financial crisis continues unabated. With the pragmatic but undeniably left-wing Cullen now in charge of Canada, it will be fascinating how interactions between Martin Heinrich and his new counterpart in Ottawa move forward on issues as diverse as energy policy to trade, and particularly on the mission in Korea.

On where the Liberals go from here:

National Post: It should behoove discouraged Liberals to remember that there were only two Tories left in the Commons at this time in 1993, after an election even more disastrous than the one they just suffered, and that Kim Campbell was light-years ahead of Dave McGuinty in terms of political talent. Still, pundits have declared prior debacles as "rock-bottom" for what was once Canada's "natural governing party," and the Liberals need to decide, as soon as possible, what on earth their party actually stands for other than controlling Parliament. Like squishy centrist outfits across the world, they have been squeezed by populism and frustrated voters for close to two decades. If the great institution that is the Liberal Party of Canada is to survive another five years, let alone another few decades, it is imperative that it realize why it is suffering and why it has been so soundly rejected by voters in such a short period of time.

[KingSweden]

February 2023: Governor Mick Mulvaney is the first Republican to formally enter the 2024 Presidential contest, declaring in Charleston his intention to run. He is criticized by some particularly oversensitive pundits for his speech taking place within clear sight of Fort Sumter. Brian Sandoval announces his run by month's end in Las Vegas, having already built a substantial cash advantage since the beginning of the prior year as part of a shadow, semi-official campaign. Dubiously early polls show Heinrich with a comfortable lead over Mulvaney and narrowly trailing Sandoval both nationally and in key swing states. The snow storms continue to rage nationwide. The heavy water swells causes a catastrophic breach in the Rocky Reach Dam in Washington state, causing severe flooding in nearby Wenatchee that kills 121 people. Heinrich nominates former US Rep. Patrick Murphy to serve as Secretary of Commerce.

February 2023 (continued): Park Won-soon is inaugurated and immediately sets about stepping up refugee re-settlement efforts, announcing massive construction projects in the Seoul suburbs and near the DMZ to shift waylaid North Koreans out of camps. Cuba announces that negotiations have begun on a new constitution, with military leaders being warily eyed for their compliance with democratic norms. Xi and Heinrich have their last bilateral meeting in Hainan, with Xi stepping down in March at the Communist Party Congress. Three high-level former DPRK commanders who were running the most vicious militias are captured and two others are killed in firefights with British SAS forces. Israel, Turkey and Jordan begin preliminary discussions on dividing up non-Anbar Republic territory in Southern Syria as an effort to split the country apart and prevent further violence. The movement of Iraqi Kurdistan towards independence continues unabated and Osborne, cannily reflecting domestic politics, becomes one of the rare NATO leaders to emphatically oppose such a move.

And now, for Sports: The Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl LVII in Dallas, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 27-21 to earn their record eighth Super Bowl championship. Quarterback Jake Browning is the Super Bowl MVP.

[KingSweden]

Assessing the 2024 GOP Presidential Contenders:

Politico's Look at the potential field:

Already Running

Brian Sandoval, Nevada: A former Governor and Senator, Sandoval starts the race as the prohibitive front-runner - like Mitt Romney, Mike Pence and George W. Bush, he is unlikely to face a field so challenging he will struggle to break away. He is likely to command the full support of the GOP establishment and money men, and he has a genuinely moderate record, both as Governor and in the Senate. In Nevada, he vetoed gun control legislation and signed into law the most expansive school voucher program in the nation, yet raised taxes to better fund schools, attracted new businesses to Reno and Las Vegas, and unlike many contemporary GOP governors in the budget-cutting frenzy of the early 2010s he managed to simplify Nevada's government costs and expenses without firing any government employees or going to war with any unions. He has a reputation as being fair and honest, despite some ethical skeletons that are par for the course in Nevada politics, and is no demagogue.

What may cause him trouble is the GOP primary. Sandoval not only proposed a massive tax hike but eagerly advocated for it and then started a hardball fight to continue it against a more conservative legislature. If that's not enough to give grassroots activists pause, his support for same-sex marriage (in a 2020 interview, he commented that, "if two men want to start a family, and raise a child that otherwise could have been in the foster system or wound up on the streets, then we should encourage that and embrace that. We need to update what 'family values' means to mean ALL families." Not exactly the rhetoric you hear from other corners of the party) and his nuanced take on abortion (an issue he moved to the right on once he was in the Senate, though he remains pro-choice for all intents and purposes) will make him a non-starter to many in the Iowa caucuses and in the South. If that wasn't bad enough, his leadership on immigration reform - the same leadership that has earned him a coveted spot at the top of the establishment's list and in the good graces of organizations like Crossroads and the Koch-founded AFP - looks a lot like amnesty to those same activists.

His path to the nomination is clear, then: a substantial cash advantage both through his personal campaign and the multiple PACs being aligned to back him. Sandoval has practiced his stump style in recent years, as he is not a particularly gifted speaker, and will be out stumping for a full year until the first nominating contests start. Look for him to emphasize the fact that he will be one of the few top-tier candidates to have left his incumbent spot to run - Sandoval has proposed "resign to run" laws in Congress. Though gay marriage is a considerably less potent issue now than ten years ago, it is still a sore spot for many social conservatives who demanded Mike Pence's allegiance four years ago. Sandoval can't afford to fall into that trap, and likely won't. They aren't his natural constituency, anyways. Instead, his best bet will be to look for a second-place finish in Iowa followed by quick-strike wins in moderate New Hampshire, home-state Nevada and demographically-friendly Florida to take a major leg up going into Super Tuesday. How he explains his name being on the biggest immigration-reform bill in modern times to the grassroots is yet to be seen.

Mick Mulvaney, South Carolina: The gregarious and arch-conservative Governor of South Carolina - dubiously popular even within his home state's GOP - will be a tough beat in the South. He has a finger on the pulse of the party's right wing, speaks the language of frustration and anger associated with these older, whiter voters, and has impeccable conservative credentials. He can point to the good-old-boys culture of the South Carolina Assembly and wear his battles with them as a badge of honor, a classic tactic in a GOP primary where voters often despise their party's leadership as much as Democrats. He is totally orthodox on abortion, taxes, amnesty, and cultural issues, leaving no room to his right on many of these issues. His populist, Tea Party inflections will do him well in Iowa and he shouldn't have too many problems placing first in his home state - though native South Carolinians Lindsey Graham and Nikki Haley may have alternative examples.

What will inevitably cause Mulvaney issues are that he does not have the temperament of an angry truth-speaker. He is genteel, pleasant, and, like his only other current rival, not a natural public speaker. Mulvaney's instincts are to make a stand on principle as opposed to finding a common ground to govern - you can be sure that Sandoval and most other candidates will have local officials in South Carolina on standby to give day-to-day anecdotes on why this is a problem. Mulvaney also will get outflanked on the right by Senator Tom Cotton, who is certain to run, on defense issues, where Mulvaney has made a clear effort to reach out to Paulites and other younger conservatives concerned about foreign entanglements. Though the dovish, non-interventionist wing of the GOP is still growing, it remains to be seen if it can out-do a neo-conservative movement that has remained remarkably powerful and influential over the last forty years.

Mulvaney's path to victory will be difficult and narrow. He will have to share conservative oxygen with Cotton (whose own problems we will detail further on). He will have to reconcile policy and political positions far out of the mainstream of his own party, which has made a conscious effort to moderate over the last few years since the Cruz/Pence debacles. The Sandoval campaign - and the Heinrich campaign, if he gets that far - will paint him as a grumpy, white Southern throwback out of touch with the modern America. A massive showing in Iowa, landslide in native SC and a big victory in the South on Super Tuesday are what is needed to keep him alive past early March. Anything less, and what is sure to be a lean, cash-strapped campaign will struggle to go much longer.

Likely to Run

Tom Cotton, Arkansas: The poster-boy of the 2014 GOP freshman class, Tom Cotton has positioned himself as the latest in the line of GOP hawks in the Senate. He was one of the leaders of opposition to the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 - leadership that led some Democrats to label him a 'traitor' - and has consistently criticized Clinton and then Heinrich over their leadership on Venezuela, Cuba, the Middle East and North Korea, often without suggesting concretely what he would do instead. Young, handsome and Southern, with an attractive family and who is by all accounts very intelligent, he is on paper a remarkable candidate who would probably be the only combat veteran in the race.

It's the "on-paper" part that is key, because Cotton has also shown over the years a lack of restraint that endears him to hard-core conservatives who praise his bluntness but has caused alarm amongst GOP leaders who fear he could melt down in a national campaign. He has never campaigned anywhere but Arkansas, where he jumped from the House to the Senate after one term in a state rapidly going Republican. One well-positioned RNC official cautioned, "He has ridden the wave every time. Nobody knows if it's his personal talents that have gotten him where he is." The official then paused and said, "He would also be the most hawkish President ever elected, even more so than some of the guys in the Cold War. He is exceptionally conservative and his views, especially on foreign policy, would be very easy for Democrats to exploit." Cotton's right-wing voting record on economics, though certainly not that of Mulvaney, would also emerge on the trail, as would the guaranteed hit on him for lacking executive experience. Congress is a favorite punching bag for GOP activists, even when they control both houses.

Cotton, much like Mulvaney, needs a strong start in Iowa. He will, more so than anyone else, need to prove he can eat into Sandoval's likely strength in New Hampshire, requiring at minimum second place and hopefully first to prove he can play outside of his comfort zone. South Carolina and Florida, both veteran-heavy states with a military presence, will be huge targets, too. Cotton's profile makes him an intriguing candidate for many Republicans. He'll need to prove he can address his weaknesses, too.

Jon Husted, Ohio: A swing-state Governor coming off of reelection is always a safe bet for a dark horse run, and Husted has been eyeing this opportunity for years, according to people close to him. What should give Republicans pause about Husted is his narrow reelection win, his lack of major achievements to call his own (many Republican reforms in Ohio were passed under his considerably more popular predecessor, John Kasich) and his lack of charisma. Husted, as a swing state Governor, has tremendous cachet with party elites but is virtually unknown to the grassroots and would seem an unlikely choice to run, even though he is apparently zeroing in on a June launch.

His path to the nomination is clear - Beat Sandoval in New Hampshire, do modestly well in Florida, and focus on the Midwestern Super Tuesday primaries. He will have a very rough road.

Raul Labrador, Idaho: The conservative Senator from Idaho represents the closest thing to a Paulite in the race, especially since the real thing is unlikely to run and his protege, Thomas Massie, is up for reelection in Kentucky this fall. Labrador, though not a close ally of Rand Paul by any means, has cultivated a libertarian-leaning following in his home state and would make a remarkable foil to Sandoval - a staunchly, undeniably conservative, Spanish-fluent Puerto Rican elected in one of America's most conservative states who will not compromise on principle.

Those kinds of "no compromise" stands are less popular these days, however. Labrador is better liked by his Senate colleagues than men like Ted Cruz, but he has less legislation to show for it. His expected entry into the race fills a vacuum on the more libertarian end of the right, but he is (like many others in this field) a less-than-engaging public speaker and the personal empire he has built for himself in Idaho, where he and his supporters control the party apparatus, is unlikely to be of much help as the state doesn't hold its primary until early April. As a Mormon, Labrador may struggle to appeal to some evangelicals as he lacks the "electability" argument surrounding Mitt Romney that supposedly qualified their concerns about his faith.

Labrador needs a dominant showing in Iowa to survive much further into the race, though the Nevada caucuses could turn into a two-man affair between himself and Sandoval depending on the contours of the race.

[KingSweden]

Assessing the 2024 GOP Presidential Contenders (Part 2)

The Maybes

Jim Lankford, Oklahoma: With Ted Cruz, Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton and George P. Bush all unlikely to run in 2024, the Texas oil money will have no natural candidate, but a pair of candidates from neighboring Oklahoma could seem tempting. The first is Senator Jim Lankford, a staunch social conservative nevertheless cozy with leadership who is touted as a future successor to John Thune and who could have been Speaker had he stayed in the House. Lankford's problem is two-fold: a GOP donor class that is even less enamored with social conservatives than ever before, and an economic platform that is both too conservative for many general election voters yet not ambitious enough for the slice of primary voters he'd be aiming for. Lankford's best bet, one he is unlikely to pursue, would be to aim straight at religious old people, promising to preserve Social Security and Medicare while emphasizing family values and his long-standing ties to Oklahoma's socially conservative Baptist churches. It is a Republican strategy that would have made him a daunting candidate in, say, 2004. Twenty years later, with the secular Millennial generation entering middle age and an even-less religious post-Millennial generation looking to Republicans to give them something fresh and new to vote for, this would not be the best way to expand the party. Those close to Lankford believe that he knows this, and that he will eschew a run after flirting with the possibility all spring.

Mick Cornett, Oklahoma: The other - and much more interesting - possibility from the Sooner State is Mick Cornett, its unorthodox Governor. Cornett, despite being a lifelong Republican, may be the lost liberal Governor in the history of the state. He has deftly avoided social issues, as the GOP passed a raft of conservative legislation under his predecessor, and has instead focused on investing in the state, continuing his smart growth policies when he was Mayor of Oklahoma City and making a strongly conservative case for urbanism and dynamic cities. This message has made him a darling of the urbanist crowd, who point to him as an example of why their beliefs should cut across party lines. There are a number of problems for Cornett, however - he is a 64-year old white guy who is not particularly charismatic from a small state and is, for all intents and purposes, a fairly weak Governor, with massive majorities in his state legislature setting policy. He is a technocrat at heart who would make for an outstanding Cabinet official - HUD Secretary, anyone? - but Oklahoma insiders doubt he has the fire in his belly to make a run, emphasizing that he currently has his dream job. If enough Texas donors line up behind a relative local, look out, but the thought is that the major donors from Dallas and Houston are more likely to split between Sandoval and Cotton.

Marco Rubio, Florida: It would seem odd that the most recent Vice Presidential pick - and a Hispanic from a major swing state, no less - would appear so far down this list. However, 2024 is not the right time for Rubio, it appears, as he is coming off of a grueling reelection race and has already signaled to his supporters from the last time he ran for President that they should support Sandoval or Cotton instead. The thinking in Florida circles goes that he will run in 2028 if the Democrats win next fall or 2032 if Republicans do as he continues to build cachet in his native state. Still, if Sandoval stumbles and no other establishment-flavored candidates enter, look for Rubio to be the savior drafted to prevent, say, Mick Mulvaney or Raul Labrador from taking the nomination.

Tim Scott, South Carolina: A man many conservatives - and even some establishment figures - want to run, Tim Scott is another intriguing choice. The only black Senate Republican is an arch-conservative, but he is a quiet, behind-the-scenes player, not a polarizing pugilist like Ted Cruz. He is well-liked by his colleagues across the spectrum, and many black South Carolina Democrats praise his work on issues important to them, even though the means and his politics often rub them the wrong way. With Mulvaney entering the race, though, Scott is seen as very unlikely to run, and even without Mulvaney, most doubt Scott could carve out a niche in the race large enough for himself. Still, he'd be a fascinating candidate, and a collapse by Mulvaney or Labrador could lead to him entering off the bench on behalf of the grassroots to prevent a Sandoval coronation.

Josh Romney, Utah: Mormon Republicans and many donors would love a third member of the Romney family to enter the fray. The enormous goodwill his father Mitt has built as a party elder statesman would mean serious cash headed to Josh, the state's senior Senator, and he would become Threat Number One to the Sandoval camp, both nationally and in the early states. However, there are a number of problems with a Romney run - his 2016 primary win over Mike Lee, the tough race which first endeared him to the Beltway crowd, was built mostly on his family name. Romney is not a great campaigner and has constructed his political persona on being a Utah insider. Also, the Romneys are said to be great admirers of Sandoval and his father's money network is already revving up to support the former Nevada Governor and Senator - a clear sign that the Romneys do not anticipate their son entering the race. Finally, there are rumors out of Utah that Josh is ambivalent about any national run, ever, after remembering the experiences of his family in 2012. While one can never say never - Josh could be a formidable force in, say, 2028 or 2032 - it doesn't look like the Romney clan will get one of their own into the White House this time around.

Walker Stapleton, Colorado: If Stapleton - a popular, swing state Governor - were to enter the race, the Bush network would coalesce around their distant cousin immediately. But Stapleton is said to be leaning against a run, worrying about the substantial advantage Sandoval, with his presence, is likely to command. Also, Stapleton is said to enjoy the job he already has and has a considerably better relationship with Democratic legislators in his state than most (Atlas) red-state Republican governors do. Stapleton is most certainly at the top of the VP shortlist, along with Tim Scott, but he is not likely to enter this race at this time.

A Woman, Anywhere: Nikki Haley is unlikely to run. The banner 2022 results for the GOP did not result in any high-profile women getting elected. Indiana Governor Sue Ellspermann is likely too moderate and too obscure to even make it to the caucuses. Former Senator Joni Ernst might be a contender, especially in Iowa, but her defeat in 2020 makes her a dubious choice to jump into the race. North Dakota Senator Kelly Schmidt seems satisfied with her current job and is fairly moderate herself. Sarah Palin has made rumblings about running (again), but her time was probably 2012 and she is a pariah in the party these days, even to many in the grassroots. Wyoming Governor Cynthia Lummis is a fairly orthodox conservative, but is virtually unknown, fairly uncharismatic and would suffer due to coming from a small state, plus Republicans may shy from having a candidate who would be inaugurated at 70 after piling on Hillary Clinton for her age for five years. Would the eventual nominee benefit from a female as his running mate? Probably, yes. But it's hard to say where the party is going to find the right person for the job with its current crop of officeholders.

[Horsemask]

Go Sandoval!

Also I've always loved the lead-up posts to Presidential elections. Keep up the great work!

[Maxwell]

What about Ben Sasse? I always perceived him as a potential future candidate.

[badgate]

I've edited my post on the previous page to include Senate and Governor maps!

[Kingpoleon]

Pardon me, but who is Mayor of New York City? De Blasio, Bloomberg(Jr.), who?

I always like to keep up with timelines, but I don't have the patience to go through it again. If you remember, I'd appreciate it. If not, I'll look over the last five or six pages for it in a little bit. Thanks!

[KingSweden]

Senate Map 2024: Breaking Down the Crucial Races

By Politico

There are two ways to look at the Senate campaign of 2024 - that the Democrats will try to recoup their losses from six years ago, or that they will get further hammered if, as is expected, Republicans maintain their current advantage and win the White House (say, behind a Brian Sandoval ticket). Here are the expected battleground races:

Montana

Jon Tester may be the luckiest man alive, narrowly beating Conrad Burns in '06, narrowly escaping Denny Rehberg in '12, and surviving the flawed Ryan Zinke in '18. Bearing down on him next fall, however, is US Rep. Chas Vincent - a handsome, fairly moderate former logger from the northwest corner of the state. Vincent is a supremely talented politician, only 47 years old, and has a finger on the pulse of his state, winning three straight landslides to the state's at-large seat. Vincent, who announced his entry into the race in his hometown of Libby in late November, has to have the advantage here. Tester, a leadership mainstay for the last decade, will have the fight of his political life on his hands.

Ohio

Out of all of the members of Democrats' class of 2006, Sherrod Brown has been the most impactful. A populist who can speak bluntly and directly to squeezed working class whites, he remains a throwback to old-school New Deal Democrats of the kind you don't find much in the Midwest anymore. However, Brown - who endeared himself to liberals with his defense of social programs and fiery attacks on banks and Wall Street - is retiring after 32 years in Congress and a public service career stretching back to the 1970s. Though even at 72 he could probably win another term with little issue - Republicans have long underestimated him - this open seat will be the crown jewel of John Thune's offensive efforts. There is a deep bench of GOP officials likely to challenge here, chief amongst them Secretary of State Josh Mandel and first-term US Rep. Frank LaRose, both from the populous Cleveland region. Democrats seem to be consolidating around State Treasurer Connie Pillich, though Matt Szollosi and Zach Milkovich are seen as potential candidates too. Either way, this will be the biggest race of the season.

Pennsylvania

Another major figure from the class of 2006 is retiring, and this one was a surprise - Bob Casey, now in leadership, will leave the Senate, likely with an eye on the Governor's race in 2026. Republicans have a massive bench, including almost the entire House delegation, who will eye this race as a potential to move up the ladder. Democrats, meanwhile, will probably look to US Rep. Luke Ravenstahl - who has already announced - as their standard-bearer in a year in which many of their statewide row officers are seeking reelection and could boost the ticket, especially as former US Rep. Matt Bradford is expected to run for Attorney General instead of the Senate. Though Democrats should have the advantage here, there are concerns that a map swinging to the right as the campaign goes on could flip this seat back to Republicans after 18 years in Democratic hands.

Wisconsin

Out of all the states with an incumbent Democrat outside of Montana, Wisconsin is the one that worries DSCC leaders the most. The state is famously polarized, with suburbs that vote more like the suburbs of Dallas or Atlanta than nearby Chicago or Minneapolis. Wisconsin's economy has been eking along for over a decade, barely growing, compared to its neighbors (though they'd never trade places with Illinois). There are a lot of frustrated voters in the state and particularly frustrated with Heinrich, who is currently trailing Brian Sandoval in most polls here. Tammy Baldwin - an arch-liberal - may be looking at the fight of her life if Reid Ribble or Mike Schraa enters the race to take her on.

Florida

This swing state is sure to be a target for Republicans, who came agonizingly close to seizing this seat in 2018. Patrick Murphy has smartly rebuilt Bill Nelson's political network and is regarded as one of the greatest Democratic political talents, especially in this pure purple state. In a Presidential election, with higher turnout, Murphy is probably safe even if the eventual Republican nominee takes the state. However, if this turns into a rout, his seat will probably be an early flip.

Maine

Democratic-friendly independent Angus King is retiring, leaving a choice pickup opportunity for Republicans. Democratic US Rep. Troy Jackson is thought of as one of their strongest candidates, putting this further down the list than otherwise, but former State Senator Garrett Mason is expected to make the leap and challenge for this seat. Locals anticipate a very tight, acrimonious race.

Virginia

Democrats privately admit concern about Tim Kaine's vulnerability, though publicly they think he's fine. Kaine is popular in his home state and is a senior Democratic power broker, known for his leadership and bipartisan instincts. However, his campaign accounts are fairly low on cash and he'll be a top target for Republicans who refuse to defer this state to Democrats. Former US Reps. Morgan Griffith and Rick Morris are reportedly being actively recruited to take Kaine on. Outside of them, it's unclear who would emerge to take him on outside of Lieutenant Governor Bryce Reeves, who has made noise about a run. Kaine should be favored over all candidates barring the national picture turning violently against Democrats.

Nevada

One of the few offensive targets, this state largely hinges on the Republican nominee. If Brian Sandoval is atop the ticket, this likely gets punted. If not, Democrats have a chance to take out Dean Heller. Russ Miller is unlikely to run, so Democrats have been actively recruiting Steve Horsford to jump into the fray and challenge for this slot. Either way, Heller should be favored either narrowly or significantly.

Missouri

One of the few offensive targets for Democrats, who refuse to concede anything on this map. Outgoing Governor Chris Koster has already declared for this seat and has a significant cash account to challenge Ann Wagner. Wagner should be favored in a state that has become increasingly difficult for Democrats to break through in, but Koster is their best recruit in a generation. If anyone can take this seat back, it's him.

Indiana

Todd Rokita is an exceptionally conservative Senator, from a fairly conservative state - Democrats are starting to zero in on trying to "Mourdock" him. Still, Rokita has decent approvals and a significant cash advantage, and the state is tilted against Democrats fairly significantly. Peter Buttigieg is unlikely to run for anything other than Governor, leaving Democrats with a fairly thin bench.

Arizona

Another potential Democratic target thanks to its strong Hispanic demographic growth and the President being from the next state over. Republicans doubt Democrats can take on the independent-minded, popular Flake, but there is chatter about Phoenix Mayor Martin Quezada making a run. Either way, Flake starts favored.

Until anything changes, most other races should be considered safe for the incumbent party.

[KingSweden]

Pardon me, but who is Mayor of New York City? De Blasio, Bloomberg(Jr.), who?

I always like to keep up with timelines, but I don't have the patience to go through it again. If you remember, I'd appreciate it. If not, I'll look over the last five or six pages for it in a little bit. Thanks!

De Blasio left office after the 2021 election, term-limited. The current (as of February 2023) Mayor of New York is Eric Adams, the current Brooklyn Borough President.

[KingSweden]

What about Ben Sasse? I always perceived him as a potential future candidate.

You know, I completely forgot about him. He'd be a good conservative dark horse, maybe somebody who enters late in the game as other challengers falter.

[KingSweden]

March 2023: Raul Labrador announces he is running for President from downtown Boise. The crowd that greets him there is tepid and smaller than expected. Polls show Brian Sandoval running away in New Hampshire and in a three-way battle with Labrador and the (hypothetical) candidate Cotton in Iowa. Martin Heinrich ends speculation by announcing that he will seek a full term as President in his own right at the end of the month. Major flooding hammers much of the Midwest after the cold, snowy winter starts to thaw early.

March 2023 (continued): Hu Chunhua replaces Xi Jinping as President of China after having already replaced him as General Secretary of the CPC, and Sun Zhengcai is tapped as Premier as the "sixth generation" of leadership takes power in China. Hu announces a further escalation of Chinese activities in Korea at a joint press conference with President Park in Seoul two days later as his first official act. Several members of the new CPC Congress' upper echelons are Xi disciples, and the now ex-President is expected to have a much more influential post-Presidency than his predecessors. Osborne declares a state of emergency in Edinburgh after a particularly violent riot. The Syrian military junta finally collapses, leading to rapid advancements by Druze, Sunni and Kurd forces over the course of the month.

And now, for Sports: First-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, 39, ends speculation and announces that he will retire after 18 seasons in the NFL. In the Champions League, massive upsets abound as Sporting CP knocks Manchester United out only three months after their stunning defeat of the defending champions in the FIFA Club World Cup. An even bigger upset, however, occurs as tiny Irish side Dundalk FC defeats Real Madrid after a 1-1 tie in Madrid and then a 2-0 win in Dundalk. It is, without a doubt, the biggest upset in the history of the tournament. Other teams advancing: Liverpool FC, Chelsea, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, Juventus, and Bayern Munich.

[Kingpoleon]

How is Cotton doing? Is he more of a John Bolton/Paul Tsongas, a Joe Lieberman, a John McCain, or just a generally neoconservative Senator?

To be clear: a hawkish moderate social liberal and fiscal centrist, a moderately liberal hawk, a moderately conservative hawk, or the last?

I honestly really like him, but then again I've only met him a handful of times. I hope we aren't going to get to the last one, because that seems like what Democrats think Cotton and Graham are.

[/]

My prediction: close Sandoval victory.

Anyway, great TL!

[KingSweden]

How is Cotton doing? Is he more of a John Bolton/Paul Tsongas, a Joe Lieberman, a John McCain, or just a generally neoconservative Senator?

To be clear: a hawkish moderate social liberal and fiscal centrist, a moderately liberal hawk, a moderately conservative hawk, or the last?

I honestly really like him, but then again I've only met him a handful of times. I hope we aren't going to get to the last one, because that seems like what Democrats think Cotton and Graham are.

Everything I've seen from him indicate one of these. He doesn't seem as uber-right wing on fiscal and social issues as many Republicans, especially Southern Republicans. He did, after all, support the minimum wage initiative and his social issue stances seem fairly mainstream for the party he's in and the region he's from.

In short, he definitely would not be the most conservative person in the 2024 field by any means.

[KingSweden]

April 2023: Heinrich dodges a major potential bullet when progressive ex-New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, once thought to be eyeing a Presidential run, announces he will not challenge Heinrich in the Democratic primary. De Blasio's abysmal approval ratings, even a year after leaving office, are seen as being prohibitive to a run. Tom Cotton announces his Presidential run from Iowa, which will be the centerpiece of his run. A surprising entry into the Republican field materializes late in the month in the form of former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, who despite having been out of office eight years throws his hat in the ring once again.

April 2023 (continued): Nicola Sturgeon announces snap elections for Holyrood, and declares that the SNP will hold another referendum in September if they are victorious, choosing a short referendum period to prevent the No camp from succeeding. The eyes of sovereigntists the world over are watching this situation unfold. Turkey's Kurds start to step up their campaign to break from Turkey and join the Republic of Kurdistan, unrecognized by many world powers. Deadly terrorist attacks shake China as Uyghur minority groups start to ratchet up a violent protest campaign after it is revealed that China's police and military have intentionally targeted them for years. A general strike in Indonesia is triggered after a standoff between Jokowi and major labor unions, and the situation quickly escalates into violence.

In our global hotspots, the situation in North Korea settles down somewhat as the Group of Six continues to confiscate heavy weaponry and form a "State of Northern Korea Defense Force" out of former DPRK military units regarded as "vetted." Heinrich announces during a trip to Australia to meet with (recently reelected) Prime Minister Bill Shorten that the United States has sealed and destroyed three nuclear research facilities in North Korea after removing the research and data from them. In the Middle East, Israel steps up airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in Syria and southern Lebanon as their neighbor continues to disintegrate. Cuba schedules its first free elections in nearly 70 years for November.

And now, for Sports: Some normalcy in the NCAA March Madness tourney again, as powerhouse Kentucky wins their first championship since 2012, defeating Michigan State in the final. Liverpool defeats the ultimate Cinderella in Dundalk on penalties to advance to the semifinal round of the UCL, as do Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Sporting CP.

Technology Update: The use of thin-film solar cells has made the use of solar technology vastly more economical, increasing its already exponential growth. Utilities in places like Nevada, California and Arizona start paying customers a rebate or credit to install solar cells on rooftops to drastically cut power usage and spike efficiency, and the Department of Natural Resources starts discussing the possibility of offering tax credits for solar installation.

[KingSweden]

Assessing the Gubernatorial Map of 2024

Politico

Safe R

Montana: Tim Fox is a popular governor in Montana, having cut taxes, signed Right to Work legislation, efficiently combated wildfires, and attracting businesses to places like Billings and Bozeman. Outside of young, openly gay and term-limited Secretary of State Bryce Bennett, Democrats have no candidate they think could take out Fox, and Bennett is thought of as more likely to run for the vacant US House seat next fall. Safe R.

Indiana: Sue Ellspermann, a much more moderate figure than Mike Pence, is reasonably popular and has not rocked the boat in conservative Indiana. Former South Bend Peter Buttigieg is thought to be planning on taking a pass as he continues his work for the Navy. Instead, former US Rep. John Broden, narrowly losing last fall, will likely look at this race, which he is still likely to lose. Ellspermann is considerably favored.

Utah: It has been four decades since Democrats put a Democrat in the Utah Governor's mansion, and that is unlikely to change in 2024. Sean Reyes is broadly popular, relatively young and is rumored to have no desire to leave Utah anytime soon for greener (read: national) pastures. With Jim Matheson highly unlikely to run, there is little risk of Reyes losing this seat.

North Dakota: Drew Wrigley's plan remains in place - run for reelection, and then run to succeed John Hoeven in 2028. There is no Democrat on the radar - not even Heidi Heitkamp - likely to upset that straightforward plan.

West Virginia: Patrick Morrissey is term-limited, but the good news for him is that Senator Evan Jenkins has his eye on his job, and vice versa. A Charleston Two-Step a la Bill Haslam and Bob Corker in 2018 seems in the cards, and in this now rock-solid Republican state, it isn't clear what if anything is there to stop it.

Tossup/Likely R

Vermont: Phil Scott remains largely popular in this quirky state, and Democrats haven't shown a huge inclination to try to take him one. Progressive State Senator Katherine Sims is making noise about a run, but Scott shouldn't sweat this too badly. In such a left-leaning state, however, you never know.

Missouri: The big-ticket item on the GOP map in 2016. A popular incumbent Senator is on the ballot, the Republican nominee should snatch this state back from the Democratic column, and former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens is the front-runner for the GOP nod. Democrats seem to be coalescing around Attorney General Scott Sifton, but this looks like a likely GOP pickup next fall.

North Carolina: Roy Cooper is leaving office after two very acrimonious terms marred by fighting with the conservative legislature, and he leaves behind a state ripe for the taking by State Treasurer Heath Shuler, the likely Democratic nominee. Republicans, meanwhile, seem to be coalescing around House Deputy Majority Whip Patrick McHenry, who seems ready to leave the House after twenty years and build his executive experience before a future Presidential run in 2028 or 2032, as is widely expected from the well-regarded young conservative. After eight years of Democratic control in this purple state, McHenry would start relatively favored.

Likely D

New Hampshire: Ann McLane-Kuster shouldn't face any issues on paper, but after a terrific year last fall, the NH GOP is feeling better about their chances. The state, sure to be a Presidential battleground, could attract some serious attention from outside groups and both parties.

Washington: On paper, this should be a Safe Democratic shoo-in. Republicans have not won here in forty years. Dow Constantine was the county executive of the state's most populous county for over a decade and enjoys majorities in both houses of the legislature. The Seattle area's economy is still growing at a fast clip. But scandals in the state Democratic party are wearing on the incumbent's approval ratings and Republicans have an outstanding candidate in State Treasurer Steve Litzow, a moderate if even perhaps liberal on social issues who will focus with microscopic intensity on appealing to suburban voters and hoping rural Eastern Washington conservatives don't abandon him over his support for abortion, gay marriage and even moderate gun control. If things go bad up-ticket, Litzow could eke out a narrow win here.

Delaware: (Obviously, in light of the tragic passing of Beau Biden this past year, he cannot be Governor of Delaware in this timeline. Instead, I replace him with Peter Schwartzkopf, who would be term-limited). An open seat is ripe for the taking by State Treasurer Ken Simpler, one of the best GOP candidates in Delaware in a generation. Still, the state's Democratic lean should give whoever the nominee is - possibly Senator John Carney, or State Senate Majority Leader Bryan Townsend - a leg up.

[KingSweden]

Inside the Battle for the Supreme Court

By Politico

This past winter, Antonin Scalia set the political world on fire by announcing that after nearly dying not once but twice late last year, he would be retiring after the June session. It has become abundantly clear that he timed his announcement for after the midterms so that he was guaranteed a Republican majority, albeit a razor-thin one, to approve his replacement.

At 87, it was inevitable that Scalia would leave. The battle to replace him represents one of the biggest in recent Senate history, especially after many conservatives have a bad taste in their mouths after last year's surprisingly easy appointment of Michelle Freidland to replace Anthony Kennedy, finally tipping the ideological balance of the Court to 5-4 for the liberals.

"If we don't do this right," Senator Ted Cruz said in an interview with Fox News in early April, "then the next Republican President could be staring at a 6-3 majority of judicial activists, where conservative priorities go to die at the hands of unelected judges." Many of his colleagues, even many who are less conservative than he, are making similar sounds. Scalia is an icon amongst conservative jurists and law students - the thinking goes that his replacement must be of similar ideological and intellectual timbre. Who exactly fits the mold is a better question.

What Republicans also have to consider is the fact that Democrats are likely to muster all 49 of their Senate votes in favor of whoever Heinrich nominates, giving them little margin for error. Men like Lindsey Graham, Jeff Flake and Jon Huntsman have gone on the record that they believe in supporting whomever the President, of either party, nominates, effectively guaranteeing a Supreme Court nominee is passed. And with filibusters weakened in the last six years, this creates a conundrum for the GOP.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is at the center of this maelstrom. His political career may be defined by it. Already tarred a sellout by outside groups despite a conservative record second to none, Thune will be watched closely by how he manages this crisis. Reports from his office and the White House indicate that senior administration staffers and advisers - including Chief of Staff Gary King and Senior Counsel Don Bully - have been huddling with Thune and his top people, including Majority Whip John Barrasso, to go over potential nominees. The working plan, according to anonymous sources in the know, is for President Heinrich to hold off on announcing his nominee until he has somebody who can avoid a filibuster - a.k.a., earn the implicit approval of Thune.

For Thune, this is a double-edged sword. His victorious 2004 campaign against then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle was based on Daschle blocking President Bush's judicial nominees and preventing the President from exercising his discretion and authority. Thune is known to be supremely cautious about managing the Senate GOP's public image, particularly with a Presidential race around the corner. A Senate insider close to Thune described his thinking as, "It would smack of hypocrisy if we torpedoed a Supreme Court nomination like we were running out the clock on Heinrich's first term. And if it doesn't work? If Democrats retake the Senate and Heinrich is reelected? What then, have we done this for?"

Some of his colleagues disagree. Losing Scalia would mean losing the brains of the conservative wing of the court, and his replacement cannot be another Freidland or Srinivasan. "We need a conservative, as conservative as we can get," Cruz continued in the Fox News interview. "Someone who really understands the Constitution in its original form, in its original intent."

Besides some of the sillier rumors - like Heinrich appointing potential general election foe Brian Sandoval to the bench to avoid facing him - there is no sign from the White House who they are considering. The running theory is that it will not be an "old liberal, young moderate" pick, and that Heinrich feels burned after trying to go out of his way to pick a palatable justice in Freidland last year only for conservatives to angrily attack him and threaten an unprecedented filibuster. With partisanship high on the hill, how the main players navigate this will be fascinating to watch.

[KingSweden]

May 2023: After fiery coverage on conservative media and angry declarations by Cruz and company, Heinrich resorts to a disastrous move that can best be described as "Presidential trolling" when he submits for nomination for the soon-to-be empty Supreme Court seat California Supreme Court justice Goodwin Liu. Liu, a non-starter with a Republican Senate for a variety of reasons, is described in the media as a "liberal Bork" and his nomination is considered dead on arrival. The move enrages conservatives and frustrates Heinrich's smattering of allies in the GOP caucus who are baffled why he would make such a move when he knows that Liu has no chance of passing. Brian Sandoval, who had kept quiet on the matter, declares in an Iowa speech, "The President has shown that he is completely unserious when it comes to the judiciary."

Judiciary Chairman Jeff Sessions, who has already blocked many lower-court nominations, declares that Liu will not be invited to a committee hearing and that the committee "will never vote" him to the Senate floor. Once Lindsey Graham, thought to be a potential vote to move any Heinrich nominee to the full Senate, announces his opposition to Liu's confirmation hearing, the writing is on the wall. Senate Democrats, uncomfortable with the nomination, privately excoriate the President for wasting nearly an entire month and angering/firing up the conservative base. In response, there are rumors of close Cruz ally Ben Sasse entering the Presidential race with a specific focus on the Court and channeling conservative anger over the whole showdown.

May 2023 (continued): President Park of South Korea states what has been unofficial but assumed for months in an historic speech in Busan where he declares, "The only realistic future of the Korean Peninsula, after the events of the past year, is a united peninsula under the government in Seoul. We cannot move forward into perpetuity with a failed state of twenty million souls on our northern, armored border. We must reunite now, when we have the first chance in a generation. It will be not just a Korean effort, but a regional effort, even a global one. But we will make this work." Chinese President Hu quietly backs Park's comments, a signal that the entity once known as the DPRK will soon cease to exist. Russian and American leaders back Park's statement by the end of the month. A "State of Druze" is declared in southern Syria adjacent to the Golan Heights, and is immediately recognized by Israel as a potential buffer state. Rumors emerge from Ankara and Amman that this "state" will soon be a province of Israel.

And now, for Sports: Liverpool defeats Sporting CP and Atletico defeats Juventus to advance to the Champions League final in the Stade de France. Liverpool wins 3-1, with José Morales scoring twice and Mamadou Thiam adding an additional goal late in the game to give LFC their 7th title, tying them with mid-2000s foe Milan. In the Europa League, West Ham United defeats Man City in an all-English final, earning their first-ever major title and maintaining England's footballing renaissance in Europe. Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich is arrested on money laundering charges in Britain, threatening his ownership of the club.

Meanwhile, in the domestic leagues - Sporting CP wins its fourth straight Portuguese title and makes it a double with the Taca de Portugal; Borussia Dortmund wins the Bundesliga while Schalke 04 upsets Bayern in the DFP-Pokal; PSG wins the Ligue 1 and Coupe de France yet again for another double; Real Madrid wins La Liga and the Copa del Rey, beating out Atletico for both, for a nice double after their disastrous ejection from the Champions League; Inter Milan, coached by Italian legend Andrea Pirlo in his first season as their manager, wins Serie A while Roma takes the Coppa Italia. In England, Liverpool places third behind champions Arsenal and runner-up Chelsea, while Man City takes fourth. Newcastle United wins the League Cup while Man City takes the FA Cup, meaning a different English club has earned serious silverware in the 2022-23 season.

[KingSweden]

June 2023: Another scorcher of a summer, though it fails to break the records set the previous two years. Drought conditions declared in most of Western North America and serious brushfires start in Montana and Wyoming, some of the worst in state history (yet again). A bad jobs report continues hurting Heinrich as the slow-rolling student debt crisis continues to weigh down on the housing market, economic productivity and consumer spending. By mid-month, Liu's name is withdrawn from consideration for the empty Supreme Court slot without much to show for it, though Heinrich is buffeted by liberal friendly, 5-4 decisions on voting laws (banning many voter ID rules), the environment (upholding executive and EPA actions) and consumer protection (upholding three major CFPB rulings). This only serves to galvanize conservatives who now demand nothing less than the Senate refusing to pass any and all nominees Heinrich suggests that fail to pass their muster. Paul Krugman, in one of his final columns for the NYT, calls this a "constitutional crisis manufactured by the GOP" and refers to it as an "attempted judicial coup." Jon Husted belatedly enters the GOP nomination race, with rumors swirling of a Sasse entry around July 4th.

June 2023 (continued): The snap elections at Holyrood are held, and the SNP wins handily, expanding their already substantial majority. Sturgeon announces a snap referendum for October 2nd, in which 16-year olds will be allowed to vote. Osborne declares the referendum and her decision to allow younger voters illegitimate and declares in a fiery address to Parliament that he will not recognize the results. Sergei Lavrov surprises nobody when he announces that he will not seek election to the Russian Presidency in 2024, suggesting a potential leadership crisis as the ruling bloc has no clear successor with Medvedev in exile and the deep state slowly crumbling. Pro-democracy protests start to gain steam in Russia again as the announcement reinvigorates the Russian liberal movement. 49 Israeli soldiers are killed in coordinated ambushes in the north of the country by Hizbullah militiamen, earning stern rebukes from the unpopular Isaac Herzog as an election approaches in early September. China declares official support for a "negotiated reuniting" of North and South Korea, with their soldiers now controlling the northern half of the country. It is understood that China expects much more cachet in Seoul in return for helping make the process smooth. A coup attempt in Gabon is averted.

And now, for Sports: Buffalo Sabres defeat Edmonton Oilers in six games to win their first-ever Stanley Cup and finally bring a championship to sports-cursed Buffalo. The parade is one of the biggest in American history, with nearly a million people partying in downtown Buffalo, a city of only 270,000. In the NBA finals, the Milwaukee Bucks win a second consecutive championship as they out-duel the Los Angeles Lakers in five games. Jabari Parker is named Finals MVP once again despite teammate Giannes Antekounmpo having arguably better statistics on paper. The dynasty of the "Stormin' Mormon" and the "Greek Freak" is officially in full swing after winning back-to-back championships after their third straight trip to the Finals.

[Maxwell]

I like how you worked that in.

[KingSweden]

2023 AFC Asian Cup - South Korea

Held under extreme security precautions with fighting raging in the north, the Asian Cup returns to South Korea for the first time since 1960.

Round of 16

South Korea 3 - 1 Uzbekistan

Australia 4 - 0 Iran

UAE 1 - 3 Japan

China 2 - 1 Thailand

Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Iraq

Qatar 0 - 2 Indonesia

Malaysia 2 - 0 India

Singapore 1 - 1 Vietnam (4-2 Singapore on penalties)

Quarterfinals

South Korea 2 - 0 Australia

Japan 1 - 1 China (1-4 China on penalties)

Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Indonesia

Singapore 1 -1 Malaysia (5-4 Singapore on penalties)

Semifinals

South Korea 2-1 China

Saudi Arabia 5 - 0 Singapore

Third Place

China 1 - 0 Singapore

Final

South Korea 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia

South Korea are the 2023 AFC Asian Cup Champions! It is their second championship and second on home soil, ending a 63-year title drought. Besides their 2002 miracle run in the World Cup, it is the Red Devils' greatest modern triumph and comes only a year after their World Cup debacle in which they failed to score a single goal, and comes at a time of already-high patriotic fervor and national engagement as they fight chaos to the north. Several million people show up the title parade held in Seoul a few weeks after the tournament and South Korean striker and captain Ji Dong-Won is named Best Player.

Japan's quarterfinal exit is yet another debacle for the Japanese national team, which was expecting at least a semifinal slot at minimum with electric 19-year old midfield Kenji excelling for them and for Manchester United.

[KingSweden]

I like how you worked that in.

thought you might

[KingSweden]

2023 Copa América - Ecuador

Tiny Ecuador serves as the host for the oft-unpredictable South American showcase tournament. It is seen as a last hurrah for aging stars like Brazil's Neymar and Colombia's James, a potential breakout for modern stars like Uruguay's Morales or Argentina's Correa, and there are always plenty of upset opportunities in the knockouts.

Quarterfinals

Ecuador vs. Paraguay

Ecuador advances after a scoreless draw heads to penalties, where young prodigy Arturo Camilo scores the winning point in a 5-3 shootout to send Ecuador to their best result since 1993.

Colombia vs. Uruguay

A battle of a young, exciting team in Uruguay with prime players like Morales, Poyet and Rolan faces off against the veteran, old Colombians, led by longtime star James. Though the game is tight, Rolan and Morales each score once in the second half to win 2-0 and effectively end James' dream of a second Copa America trophy.

Brazil vs. Chile

Another titan of the modern game, Neymar, scores twice against Chile only to see the scrappy Chileans battle back late. The game heads to extra time, where Felipe Anderson, another grizzled Selecao veteran, gets a header past Chilean goalkeeper Antonio Fuentes and sends Brazil to the semifinal.

Argentina vs. Peru

Argentina, the favorite entering the tournament after going undefeated in 2023 after their World Cup debacle, completely dismantles Peru, winning 4-0, with Correa, Vietto, Simeone and Rafi all scoring for the Albiceleste. It is the most complete performance in the tournament so far.

Semifinals

Uruguay vs. Ecuador

Despite a geographic advantage, Uruguay's rugged defense stymies Ecuador's attack and harrasses their defense all night. Poyet scores on a late free kick to earn Uruguay a spot in the final with a gritty 1-0 win.

Brazil vs. Argentina

A clash of the titans, as Brazil faces off with arch-nemesis Argentina. The Selecao fall behind early thanks to a score by Correa, but battles back with scores by the young Tabi and the veteran Judivan. With a 2-1 win, Brazil head to the final for a chance at back-to-back-to-back Copa America championships (they won the 2016 Centenario edition).

Third Place Playoff

Argentina devours the host Ecuadoreans, with Correa, Rafi, Tuvitto, and Sasha all scoring in a 4-0 romp to take third place.

Final

A scoreless game heads to penalty kicks, where Uruguay emerges victorious in a 7-6 penalty contest to win their 16th Copa America championship. Diego Poyet is named the player of the tournament, Brazil's Tabi is named Best Young Player and Uruguay's Guillermo de Amores is best Goalkeeper. It continues an excellent run for Uruguay since 2010, in which they have now won two Copa America tournaments and made the semifinals in three out of four World Cups.