Era of the New Majority

[Frodo]

With all the foreign affairs updates, I may have missed China.  What's going on over there at this point? 

[KingSweden]

With all the foreign affairs updates, I may have missed China.  What's going on over there at this point? 

Great question. Hu Chunhua replaced Xi and helped broker the reunification of Korea as DPRK collapsed in 2022-23. Xi is still, behind the scenes, extremely influential.

[KingSweden]

The Inauguration of Brian E. Sandoval

January 20th, 2025

Sandoval arrives in Washington and rides in a car to Capitol Hill along with President Heinrich. Walker Stapleton takes the oath of office first, as is tradition, to become the 50th Vice President of the United States. Next, Sandoval takes the oath of office from Chief Justice John Roberts.

Some excerpts from his inaugural address:

"It is a great and daunting responsibility that I take on. I ask for your encouragement when I do well, for your constructive critique when I make mistakes, and your prayers when I must make the difficult decisions every President must make."

"The promise of America looks weaker and weaker to those who need it most; only together, united as one country, will be make it look stronger than ever."

"Though we have not always agreed, these have been a dangerous last two years around the world. North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela. Now Russia. With great humility and patience, President Heinrich managed these situations so that they would not result in wholesale war. And with tremendous effort, he created coalitions that would help share the load and make them an international mission, rather than going alone. You did not have to accept the Vice Presidency, but when your country called upon you to serve, you did. You did not expect to ascend to the Presidency, but when crisis struck and your country needed you to serve, you did. President Heinrich, you have earned my eternal respect."

"The America of decades past is evaporating, but there is hope in a new America. An America of entrepreneurs. An America where effort is rewarded more than ever. An America undaunted by the challenges of tomorrow. This is the America that together we can unleash."

He walks from Capitol Hill to the White House afterwards after Heinrich is taken to Andrews Air Force Base by helicopter to get on a plane to New Mexico. Once at the White House, Sandoval signs an executive order freezing his pay and the pay of Vice President Walker Stapleton, a campaign promise.

The Sandoval Cabinet:

47th President: Brian Sandoval
50th Vice President: Walker Stapleton
WH Chief of Staff: Steve Hill (former economic adviser to Sandoval in Nevada)
Senior Adviser to the President: Mike Willden (former Chief of Staff as both Governor and Senator)

Secretary of State: Bob Corker (former Governor of Tennessee; one-time Senate Foreign Committee chair)
Secretary of Defense: Pete Geren (former Secretary of the Army; former Democratic US Rep. for Texas)
Attorney General: James Comey (former FBI Director; Bush-era Deputy AG)
Secretary of the Treasury: Paul Ryan (former US Rep. for Wisconsin's 1st District; 2012 Republican Vice Presidential nominee)
Secretary of Natural Resources: Matthew Mead (former Governor of Wyoming)
Secretary of Commerce: Rob Portman (former US Senator for Ohio; former US Trade Representative in Bush White House; 2016 Republican Vice Presidential nominee)
Secretary of Labor: Michele Reagan (former Secretary of State of Arizona)
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee (former Chancellor of DC schools; well-known school choice advocate)
Secretary of Transportation: Joseph Lhota (holdover from Clinton/Heinrich White House; former head of New York Metro)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Bobby Jindal (former Governor of Louisiana; 2024 Presidential candidate)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Mick Cornett (former Governor of Oklahoma; former Mayor of Oklahoma City)
Secretary of Agriculture: Adam Putnam (former US Representative and Florida Secretary of Agriculture)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Chris Gibson (former US Representative for New York; 2018 candidate for Governor of New York)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Kelly Ayotte (former US Senator for New Hampshire; former NH Attorney General)

OMB Director: Neel Kashkari (former Treasury official during Bush administration; California political candidate)
EPA Director: Jackie Bryant (longtime senior Sandoval staffer)
US Trade Representative: Jeff Denham (former US Representative from California)
UN Ambassador: Paula Dobriansky (former longtime State Department official)

[Captain Chaos]

I suggest Kelly Ayotte or Susana Martinez for Secretary of Labor

[KingSweden]

I suggest Kelly Ayotte or Susana Martinez for Secretary of Labor

I picked Michele Reagan while I was at work, but I liked your suggestion and settled on Ayotte for Homeland instead (where I think she'd be a good fit anyhow).

[/]

Was there a large 'Sandoval Democrats' movement like there was for Reagan in '80 and '84? I could see a major one cropping up among economically apathetic Democrats who usually vote D for social policy.

[KingSweden]

Was there a large 'Sandoval Democrats' movement like there was for Reagan in '80 and '84? I could see a major one cropping up among economically apathetic Democrats who usually vote D for social policy.

Most definitely. I think middle-of-the-road suburbanites who voted Democratic four (or even five) straight times defected to Sandoval. I think many Millennials took their chance on a Republican for the first time after years of solid support for Team D.

[KingSweden]

College Football Playoff 2024-25

Non-Playoff Bowls

2024 Peach Bowl: North Carolina defeats Arkansas
2024 Fiesta Bowl: BYU defeats Oregon
2025 Rose Bowl: Washington defeats Michigan
2025 Sugar Bowl: Florida defeats Oklahoma

Playoffs

2024 Cotton: Baylor vs. UCLA - Baylor wins
2025 Orange: Ohio State vs. Virginia Tech - VT wins
College Football Playoff Final: Baylor vs. Virginia Tech - Virginia Tech wins their 1st national championship! They are the second straight ACC team to win and are helped by a 9-0 winning streak to close their season after an early non-conference loss to SEC powerhouse Florida on the road.

[KingSweden]

January 2025: Sandoval's cabinet picks are quickly approved and passed through Congress, with most choices being fairly technocratic picks. Democrats grumble at the choice of Bobby Jindal for HHS Secretary, and he passes more narrowly than any other choice. Oklahoma Lt. Gov. Todd Thomsen ascends to the Governorship after Cornett is approved by the Senate for HUD. Tennessee Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, a longtime holder of that office, succeeds Bob Corker after Corker is approved for State. Wisconsin Governor Scott Fitzgerald appoints State Senator Samantha Kerkman to replace Paul Ryan after Ryan's approval to Treasury, in what is a clear slap in the face to Robin Vos. Sandoval signs an executive order on his third day establishing the Office of the Inspector General for Review of Wasteful Spending and Excessive Regulation, known as IGREWSER. The intention is to clean up duplicitous programs in the executive. Seven days into his Presidency, he makes his first trip outside the US when he heads to Mexico City to meet recently-inaugurated Mexican President Jaime "Bronco" Rodriguez.

January 2025 (continued): Fourteen protesters killed in pro-independence violence in Scotland, and the situation gets worse as Stormont collapses in Northern Ireland. Osborne's approval ratings have sunk to their lowest point since he took office eight years earlier and for the first time since his triumph in 2022 the Tories are second in the polls - to the resurgent Liberal Democrats, with Labour far in third. All issues are abetted by an unusually grim winter in Europe, with hundreds left without gas or power throughout the continent. The CDU/CSU slides into first place in opinion polls in Germany once again as Kraft's government flails in the face of refugees from Russia and the gas crisis. Georgia invades Abkhazia and South Ossetia as the Russian Army continues to get bogged down in Chechnya and Dagestan, where fighting is raging with hundreds killed already. Russian support personnel in the Middle East are withdrawn, tilting the scales against Russian-backed militias in Anbar, Syria and Iraq. The State of Druze officially votes to join Jordan, over Israeli objections. The Lebanese government collapses, presaging violence in that country as well.

And now, for Sports: Nigeria scores a monster upset as they defeat three-time defending champion Algeria in the CAF Cup of Nations, led by young 19-year old prodigy Joseph Babayo, who scores eight goals in the competition. Daniele Paolini's banner year is rewarded with a Ballon d'Or, making him the first Italian to win the award since Cannavaro in 2006. In the NFL, the Baltimore Ravens defeat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game to deny their archrivals a third Super Bowl appearance in four years and places them in the Super Bowl for the first time in twelve years. In the NFC, the New York Giants - owners of a 15-1 regular season record and NFL MVP and OPOY Josh Rosen, their star quarterback - blow out the rival Philadelphia Eagles at home to advance to their first Super Bowl in over a decade.

[KingSweden]

February 2025: To act on his campaign promise of a "100 days of reform," Sandoval introduces two major pieces of legislation. The first is the Economic Stimulus Act of 2025, which is heavy on tax credits for families, faster write-offs on equipment purchases for businesses and pays for both of these by eliminating some industry-specific tax credits. It does not touch the spending side of the ledger. Though Democrats grumble initially about the program, it is hardly the sweeping tax and spending cuts Republicans were expecting and many of the more right-wing members of Congress urge their new President to "go bold." The other major legislation, designed with the current student debt default crisis in the headlines, is the Tertiary Education Overhaul and Reform Act (TEORA), which includes the following:

• A federally-mandated ratio of administrators-to-professors at all public universities determinded by a formula that includes size of student population and total research grants - the highest allowed ratio is 3:1, with most universities falling under a 1:1 ratio. A secondary provision includes a mandate that all administrative positions not eliminated under this "mandate ratio" be either automated or filled with part-time student employees, with payment either going directly to the student's tuition balance or student loan balance, whichever is preferred.
• Another federal mandate, also using the "carrot/stick" of federal funding and grants, requiring all professors at research university hit certain "classroom hours" every semester.
• A four-year freeze of "non-research" construction and development on university campuses receiving federal funds.
• Mandating that universities establish, modelled on a Texas system, a "teaching budget" and a "research budget" that run parallel to one another.
• All federally-funded universities, depending on a new student-debt ratio, are responsible for between 30% to 50% of the student's debt on a sliding scale in case of a default.
• Establishing a new program that allows students to take equity investors as a way to pay for college, based on a decade-old suggestion by Marco Rubio
• Fix interest rates for three years at 5% and 7%, respectively, for undergraduate students and graduate students
• In order to gain liberal support for the bill, student debt is now eligible to be waived in bankruptcy, but only up to 50% of the loan value

Republicans are leery of a top-down approach, especially from the hated Department of Education, and many liberals view the move as an assault on academia. However, Sandoval campaigns for TEORA by noting that it does not make any federal mandates on curricula or content, mollifying conservatives, and in a meeting with senior Democratic Senators notes that it does not modify Title IX, as his legislation in the late 2010s did. Still, conservative opposition to TEORA rises fairly quickly, and university organizations close ranks in opposition as well.

In a joint address to Congress, Sandoval stumps for TEORA and promises to introduce his tax plan and budget in early March. He also promises to beef up the American presence in Central Europe and "restore the democratically elected President of Russia to power through diplomatic means." During the speech, he also unveils plans to merge the Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor into the "Department of Business and Industry," similar to the creation of DNR under his predecessor Hillary Clinton.

February 2025: Violence erupts in Catalonia and Northern Ireland as the gas shortage and political crises in Europe hit a boiling point. George Osborne's approval ratings - once sky-high - have collapsed, and there are rumors of a right-wing coup against the relatively moderate Prime Minister as the situation in Scotland and Belfast grows untenable. NATO leaders huddle - the United States represented by Secretary of State Corker, who has Sandoval's ear and trust - in Brussels to discuss the deepening Russian crisis. Seventy Russian soldiers are ambushed and massacred in Dagestan and their bodies displayed publicly, leading to an aggressive bombing campaign there and in Chechnya by the official Russian military. On February 28th, disaster strikes as a massive car bombing campaign kills close to two hundred civilians in Moscow on a single day, including five senior Duma members.

And now, for Sports: John Harbaugh earns his second Super Bowl championship as head coach of the Ravens, and second over his brother Jim, as Baltimore upsets favored the favored New York Giants in Super Bowl LIX in Houston. Cardale Jones, a journeyman for most of his career, is tapped Super Bowl MVP after throwing for four touchdowns and 277 yards, including 17 straight completions, and no interceptions as Baltimore wins a 42-17 rout.

[KingSweden]

March 2025: Sandoval unveils his budget, which includes tax cuts for much of the middle class but keeps the top-level tax cuts fairly modest, dropping them from 39.5% to 37% and keeping the SSI contributions uncapped. It also closes a number of tax loopholes, but does not have a mandate to make the tax reform "revenue-neutral." Sandoval counters critique of this fact by stating that, "revenue-neutral changes from year to year. Some years, this might create more revenue. Others, it might not. This is about being fair, about not distorting the system with taxes and tax spending. I don't care if lobbyists worry about it being neutral on day one. My goal is to grow the economy." The biggest item is a reduction in the mortgage-interest deduction, though he does not go all the way towards abolishing it, and a number of tax deductions are completely wiped out. There is plenty to hate for both liberals and conservatives, a number of whom in the House start openly criticizing Sandoval as a RINO a mere two months into his first term. The budget also includes considerable spending cuts in many federal departments, pledges to sell 30% of all BLM-owned land within the next five years, open federal land to gas exploration, push out clean-fuel timelines, raise the Pentagon and VA's budgets by 5% while eliminating expensive and obsolete programs, allow the attrition of 100,000 active-duty troops and 250,000 reserve troops over the next five years, and shift and consolidate several welfare programs and put the burden on the states, including block grants for CHIP and food stamps, allowing the states to set their own policies on the provision of safety net spending moving forward.

Sandoval travels to Europe and gives a speech in Paris about his foreign policy program, emphasizing "confronting dictatorship, eliminating corruption, promoting democratic norms and defending human rights." Nothing in that program resembles anything like a clear-cut "Sandoval Doctrine."
 
March 2025 (continued): A palace coup in the United Kingdom! After hovering close to third place in the polls two years out - barely leading moribund Labour - senior Tories announce their intention to challenge Osborne's leadership in a private caucus meeting. Osborne, with approval ratings averaging 28% only a few years after his Churchillian response to the Christmas Day Crisis, announces his intention to resign rather than "subject my party and this democracy to the spectacle of a leadership struggle). He announces that he will stay on as Prime Minister until a leadership election can be held within the caucus. The two front-runners for the PM slot are centrist Chancellor Sajid Javid, who would be the first non-white PM, and the more right-leaning Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. Boris Johnson also has a following in the party. The election is scheduled for the first week of April.

In Spain, meanwhile, the small-scale violence in Catalonia largely dies down after senior Catalonian politicians implore their people to cease fighting. Prime Minister Rivera announces snap elections for May as an olive branch to separatists after finalizing the constitutional reforms of 2024. Russia continues to descend into violence after the 2/28 attacks, culminating in the assassination of General Rushnykin on March 20th, further plunging the Kremlin into chaos. Much of the country is now governed by individual military and paramilitary units, and the campaign to try to control Dagestan and Chechnya has all but collapsed. Georgia announces the immediate annexation of all of Ossetia, including the Russian parts, over quiet NATO objections. The fighting in Turkish Kurdistan gets worse as the country teeters on the edge of collapse.

And now, for Sports: The following teams advance to the Champions League quarterfinals: Liverpool, West Ham United, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Roma, Valencia, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund.

[KingSweden]

UK Conservative Party leadership election, April 2025

In one of the most stunning wins in modern history, Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid narrowly wins on the second ballot over Dominic Raab to become the next Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. A British Pakistani, he is the first Muslim leader of a Western country, though he is a fairly secular one with deep ties to the British right.

His election sets off jubilant celebrations in many Muslim communities in the UK and Europe, with some referring to him as the "Obama of European Islam." On the European right, his election sends shockwaves, with many populist leaders denouncing his election as a sign of the Islamification of Europe (despite him being only one of two Muslim Tory MPs and only one of seventeen in all of the House of Commons, and his support in the Tory caucus being almost exclusively from Christians and Hindus). The UKIP denounces his election and leader Paul Nuttall states, "This is the sign of why we must end immigration into Britain," despite Javid being a poster-boy for successful integration and assimilation. Labour's recently-elected leader, Jim McMahon, praises the historic occasion of Javid's victory but says, "Despite his cultural ties to the immigrant community, Mr. Javid's views and policies hurt, rather than help, the immigrant communities of Great Britain." SNP leader Sturgeon writes from prison, "He represents no change in the Tory policies that hurt and wound Scotland."

In the United States, many right-wing outlets and leaders are apopleptic about Javid's victory, with many suggesting that Brian Sandoval refuse to meet him when he travels to Europe in late April to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Allied victory in WWII. A number of House Republicans write a letter to Secretary of State Corker asking for information on Javid's ties to Pakistan and European Muslim organizations. Sandoval, meanwhile, calls Javid to congratulate him and releases a public statement on "the successful integration of religious and ethnic minorities into British society, showing that in a country where integration is applauded and immigrants are given opportunities, rather than shunned, they become part of the existing social fabric." CAIR applauds his election, as does Nathan Cullen in Canada and Bill Shorten in Australia.

Across the Muslim world, Javid's election is met with muted applause. Many Middle Eastern leaders do not expect any material shift in British Mid-east policy just because Javid is the new Prime Minister.

Javid announces that he will not significantly alter the makeup of the Cabinet, other than appointing fellow Pakistani MP Rehman Chishti to the Foreign Secretary position that Raab departs after Raab is given the Chancellorship by Javid to heal the rift in the party.

[KingSweden]

News reactions to Sajid Javid's stunning election:

The Economist: Two events in the last six months have shaken the worldwide notion of what it means to be of the right - the election of a moderate Hispanic Republican to the Presidency of the United States, and the election of a right-wing Pakistani Tory to the Prime Ministership of the United Kingdom. For the first two decades of this century, across the Western world, conservative parties have indulged a worrying trend of nativist cultural campaigns, where their power base comes from disillusioned natives who oppose immigration, oppose the extension of government benefits to immigrants, and believe that they are intentionally ignored by multicultural elites who mock their sensitivities. The election of Brian Sandoval to the Presidency showed that this kind of anger can be overcome with positive energy and an inclusive message. The election of Sajid Javid, a non-practicing Muslim married to a Christian, to the Premiership of the United Kingdom, shows why the Conservative Party continues to be the best party of the right in the world at attracting new voices and reinforces the "Sandoval Revolution" within global conservatism.

The New York Times: The rise of Javid to the top of the UK political world mirrors that of Barack Obama's rise to the American Presidency, though it is more accurate to say that he is a more conservative version of our own Brian Sandoval. Javid convinced a party made up mostly of whites who are deeply skeptical of immigration that he was the best messenger to move the party forward in their newer, more multicultural kingdom. He convinced a party ready to go to war in Scotland and Northern Ireland - their own soil - that he is the man to lead them through the coming struggle where his predecessor failed. And Javid has an incredible opportunity - though he rarely attends mosque services anymore, he can be the ambassador to the Muslim world that the West so desperately needs. Though many of the more fundamentalist elements will eschew him as a secular sellout, there are ears that will be receptive to his message of pious peace. More importantly, he - and perhaps he alone - can level with European leaders about why integrating the burgeoning Arabic and Turkic populations of Western European countries rather than consigning them to ghettos is the only way to maintain peace within their own borders. Britons may not know it yet, but they have inherited a powerful messenger for peace and assimilation.

[KingSweden]

April 2025: The House, led by Budget Chairman Tom McClintock of California, passes a considerably more conservative and austerian budget than the already-conservative budget proposed by Brian Sandoval. Sandoval immediately contacts his allies in the more moderate Senate, particularly John Thune, Dean Heller and Mark Hutchison, to whip support for his budget and send the two to conference. Senate conservatives, still smarting from the defeat of ideological leader Ted Cruz, promise to fight for the House budget, presaging a budget standoff within the Republican Party. Though Sandoval's temporary stimulus passed fairly easily, TEORA stalls under opposition from both Democrats, who want significant changes, and conservatives who would rather abolish the DOE entirely, led by Ben Sasse and Todd Rokita. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas announces he will retire at the end of his current term, giving Republicans a chance to appoint a justice for the first time in twenty years. Conservatives put Sandoval on notice that they have been disappointed by his first hundred days and expect them to toe the line on the Supreme Court. Former Senator Chuck Grassley dies at 91 in Iowa. Q1 GDP numbers are grim, showing -0.3% growth and an unemployment rate that ticks up to 7.3% despite the stimulus. Democrats warn that austerity will only make these figures worse.

April 2025 (continued): Javid speaks passionately about defending NATO interests at a meeting in Brussels and gets along swimmingly with Sandoval at an event in London a week later during Sandoval's first European trip, one of two he will take in a a one-month period. Matteo Renzi's PD is reelected with a majority in Italy, maintaining their twelve-year grip on power and his eleven years as Prime Minister, a daunting record in modern Italy. Poland sends troops to the frontier with Kaliningrad along with Lithuania as Russian soldiers pull out and a few rogue groups carry out supply raids into Polish territory, inching Europe closer to war. Russian leaders - what exists of them, at least - promise a "full response" in case of provocation by NATO.

British Columbia's NDP government is reelected to a third government and second majority under John Horgan, winning 50 of the seats necessary to form a majority under a map that now has 91 seats rather than 85. The Liberals win 35 seats, the Greens win four and the Conservatives win 2.

And now, for Sports: A year after getting bounced in the Elite Eight, North Carolina wins the NCAA Championship by defeating defending champions Kansas in overtime. It is their first championship since 2009.

In the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal, West Ham defeats Liverpool, Real Madrid defeats Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund defeats Roma, and Inter Milan defeats Valencia.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

In a post you mentioned that the lib dems were leading in the polls in Britain, what has caused there sudden resurgence to become a major party?

[KingSweden]

May 2025: Sandoval nominates former Solicitor General and longtime conservative lawyer Paul Clement to the Supreme Court to replace Justice Thomas, but this exciting news is quickly drowned out in Washington when Sandoval suffers a major blow: the Sandoval budget is defeated in the Senate after conservative Republicans revolt, egged on by Ted Cruz, now running Heritage Action, the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund, all of which still carry cachet in Republican circles despite the overturning of Citizens United. The conservatives are joined by unanimous Democratic opposition, which comes to backfire on them when the Senate passes a less-harsh version of the House budget and then hashes out a few minor differences in committee.

Though there are no tax reforms included - an agreement is struck to tackle that issue separately - there are severe cuts to several major programs, including Medicaid and CHIP, and the total elimination of Pell Grants, a 70% cut to foreign aid, the complete defunding of Planned Parenthood, the abolition of unions for federal employees as well as the cutting of 30,000 federal jobs and a 10% pay cut for most federal employees. Amendments are attached eliminating federal housing grants, deeply cutting federal grants for mass transit, and slashing the FEC's budget and gutting the funding for the DOJ's civil rights division, which sees a 60% funding cut.

The budget also fails to increase spending on the Pentagon and the VA at the levels Sandoval had desired, while ignoring IGREWSER recommendations on department consolidation and eliminating wasteful Pentagon programs, including a handful of base closures. It is a massive rebuke by Congressional Republicans to President Sandoval, who was expected to have a honeymoon period with the right. Worries now circulate about tax reform and TEORA getting passed as well. There are whispers that Sandoval, enraged at the right-wing platform being foisted upon him after a campaign based on moderation and "New Republicanism," might veto the budget.

May 2025 (continued): Sandoval addresses a V-E day celebration in Berlin, where he applauds the few remaining WWII veterans and in a surprise has Alexei Navalny address the gathered people there as the "representative for Russia." The Spanish elections return Rivera and his Ciudadanos Party to another four-year term as they continue their labor market reform, constitutional overtures to Catalonia and anti-corruption crusade. It is a marked difference to Scotland and Northern Ireland, where the violence continues to rage abetted by street gangs. PM Javid visits Belfast and doubles down on the Unionist position, reassuring them that, "You will always be a part of Britain." Russian leaders lose control over much of the Caucasus north of Dagestan as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Udmurtia break off to form the Central Asian Republic, which is landlocked within Russia. An informal "land corridor" is formed connecting it to Kazakhstan through the mostly lawless Orenburg Oblast, which is majority-Russian. This concerns Western leaders due to the number of nuclear warheads stationed in this new republic, which quickly establishes friendly ties with Iran and China.

And now, for Sports: Borussia Dortmund defeats Inter Milan on penalties as Real Madrid blows out West Ham both at home and on the road to advance to the Champions League Final in Madrid at the Estadio Olimpico de Madrid, home of RM's rival Atletico. Despite this ostensible home-field advantage, Fabio Cannavaro's Real Madrid side suffers one of their most embarassing losses in club history, being defeated by Dortmund's high-flying attack 5-0, with Madrid star goalie David de Gea conceding four goals in the second half. Five different Dortmund players score, including star midfielder Farouk Haddadi, to give Dortmund their second European Cup and first since 1997.

The win gives Dortmund a double, as they win the Bundesliga, and Schalke 04 wins the DFB-Pokal over Bayern a year after being domestic champions. It is not all bad news for Real Madrid, as they take La Liga by twelve points, while Atletico wins the Copa del Rey over Valencia. Liverpool returns to the top of the table by winning a double, securing both first place in the Premier League and winning the League Cup. West Ham takes the FA Cup, defeating Newcastle United in the final to deny the northern rival a third straight cup. The other three slots in the Premier League are taken by West Ham at second, Manchester United at third, and Tottenham Hotspur at fourth. Sporting CP wins a third straight double in adding their sixth straight Portuguese championship. Paris St. Germain earns a sixth straight Ligue One and a fourth straight double to make up for their continued struggles in Europe. In Italy, Roma wins Serie A while Inter Milan settles for a Coppa Italia victory over AC Milan.

The Europa League is won by the surprising Anderlecht, who upset Lazio in the final to earn the smaller Belgian club a massive title.

[KingSweden]

In a post you mentioned that the lib dems were leading in the polls in Britain, what has caused there sudden resurgence to become a major party?

Mostly the defection of Blairites who hate the Tories but are discomfited by the direction of Labour after Osborne's reelection (until the election of Jim McMahon, at least, which I'll get into more), swing voters turned off by both Tory policies and Labour incompetence.

What I'd caution is that we're still two years away from the 2027 general election in England - I wouldn't expect the Lib Dems to still be leading by that point, not to give anything away.

[/]

In a post you mentioned that the lib dems were leading in the polls in Britain, what has caused there sudden resurgence to become a major party?

I hate to do this

but...

*their

Anyway, great updates!

[KingSweden]

Previewing the 2025/26 Midterm Cycle

A state by state look at what has happened in the last election, and predicting the next.

Alabama

What Happened Last Time: Republicans continue to dominate the state of Alabama, with daunting majorities in both houses of the legislature, controlling all seven seats of the Congressional delegation, both Senate seats, and every statewide post. Brian Sandoval won Alabama by a larger margin than George W. Bush in 2004. The once-mighty Alabama Democrats are battered, broke and demoralized.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Governor Luther Strange is term-limited and senior Senator Jeff Sessions, after thirty years, is planning to retire, as he will be 80 upon the end of his fifth term. This opens up two major job openings that are expected to be contested by current Congressmen - Arthur Orr of the 5th is expected to seek the Governorship and would likely clear the field, with his connections to both the national and Alabama establishment and his relatively inoffensive profile in Congress as a moderate backbencher. Sessions, meanwhile, will likely be replaced by an even-more conservative figure in Rob Aderholt, who after thirty years in the House is expected to serve a "two term" pledge and seek Sessions spot, which would make him one of the most senior freshman Senators of all time. Though he is not likely to seek any new office, Bradley Byrne is a confirmed retirement and the primary to replace him in his southern 1st District should be wide open. Democrats have their eyes on the 2nd and 3rd districts, where they at minimum start as soft favorites in the black-majority 3rd. There is potential, however remote, that Mike Rodgers could be the dean of the delegation and the only returning member in January of 2027.

What Will Likely Happen: In a midterm environment, Democrats will probably struggle in arch-conservative Alabama. Republicans should retain the 5th and 1st, where whoever replaces the current incumbents will likely be more conservative than before. It will be hard for whoever replaces Aderholt in the 6th - the most Republican district in America - to be more conservative. Still, Democrats are probably favored in the 3rd against the old and supremely lucky Dimitri Polizos, who has narrowly survived here twice. If the map turns against Republicans, the rapidly-diversifying Birmingham region could be prime for a pickup in the 2nd. Statewide, however, Republicans are likely to keep the Governorship with Orr the likeliest winner, Aderholt should have an easy path to the Senate and the row offices are unlikely to flip. Though there could be some movement in the legislatures, Republicans should maintain their majorities, if not supermajorities, in both chambers.

Alaska

What Happened Last Time: A fairly low-key year in the Great White North, as there were no statewide offices up for election other than the single House seat, where conservative Republican Joe Miller was elected by a small but comfortable margin and the legislature remained in Republican hands. Brian Sandoval slightly underperformed typical Republican numbers here, as Alaska trended somewhat Democrat in 2024, the only state to do so.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Democrats are bullish on their chances in Alaska in 2026. Mark Begich has apparently been lured out of retirement and will announce a challenge against Dan Sullivan, the man who defeated him in the 2014 landslide, after twelve years out of politics. Joe Miller, who sits well to the right of the average Alaskan and has emerged as one of the leaders of the Republican's hard-right faction in the House, is a top target of Democrats, with Anchorage Mayor Chris Tuck seen as the likely nominee to face the controversial Miller. Democrats do not anticipate that former Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz has much chance to beat popular incumbent Governor Lisa Murkowski, who has a massive war chest, a long-term family name in Alaska and has governed as a centrist Republican.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats have an uphill battle to win the Senate and House seats in Alaska, but they have a better chance than many pundits think. Sullivan is likelier to fall than Miller, if only because Begich is a superior candidate than Tuck. Murkowski should have no trouble winning reelection, regardless of what happens in the other seats, and the Legislature should remain in Republican hands, with few pickup opportunities for Democrats except in one or two marginal seats.

Arizona

What Happened Last Time: Sandoval cruised to an easy win in the Grand Canyon State, the entire delegation was returned (including embattled Democrat David Schapira) and Jeff Flake, a key ally of Sandoval in the Senate, was returned.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Governor Ben Quayle faces the voters again after sneaking past a divided establishment. As a very conservative Governor coming on the heels of two very conservative Governors in Doug Ducey and Jan Brewer, Arizona has been a laboratory of right-wing policy perscriptions for a decade and a half. Its schools are severely underfunded, its job market has stalled, crime is on the rise in Phoenix and Tucson and the waves of retirees who once swarmed to its warm weather has slowed as water becomes increasingly scarce. Democrats have Quayle squarely in their crosshairs, without a Senate seat up for election this year. Some of the Phoenix inner suburbs have trended slightly D, which should shore up David Schapira. Martha McSally is expected to seek reelection again, and she will be the main target of Democrats in the coming election on a House map that is not friendly to Democrats.

What Will Likely Happen: If Quayle faces Kyrsten Sinema for Governor - as is likely - then he is in for a serious fight. Schapira, Clinco and Gallegos should both cruise to reelection, and McSally could face a fight if young State Senator Edgar Mayor makes the plunge in a region trending Democratic very fast. Republicans Gosar, Salmon, Dial, Pierce and Franks are all safe in their districts, though Dial and Pierce could see primary challenges. Democrats have pretty decent chances at seizing spots like Attorney General and Secretary of State, and the State Senate map does not look great for Republicans, with only a narrow 17-13 margin and several D-trending seats up for reelection next year. A worst case scenario for Republicans, depending on how the next year goes, could see both the Governor's mansion, several row offices, AZ-2 and the State Senate flip to the Democrats. Only half of that coming to fruition would mark a banner year for Democrats in Arizona.

Arkansas

What Happened Last Time: Sandoval won by a margin smaller than recent Republican victories, but still earned the state's electoral votes. AR-2 saw David Sanders elected as the new representative for the Little Rock area, which could be a potential Democratic target in addition to the rapidly-diversifying NWA region, where Republicans have long dominated but have seen two special elections in the Fayetteville/Bentonville region won by Democrats.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Statewide, Republicans are worried that failed Presidential candidate Tom Cotton may be a serious target for former US Attorney Connor Eldridge, and term-limited Tim Griffin leaving office leaves an opening for former US Senator Mark Pryor, who has announced that he will return to politics by seeking the governorship of his home state. Republicans are consolidating around Bruce Westerman to be their standard-bearer, with Rick Crawford expected to face off against Griffin in '28 for the then-open Senate seat when John Boozman retires.

What Will Likely Happen: Pryor has a good chance at beating Westerman, with Gubernatorial elections typically less partisan. There are signs that Arkansas may be moving slowly back towards Democrats, though likely not at a rate to make up for its rightward shift over the last quarter-century or to allow Eldridge to beat Cotton, who angered many Arkansans with his run in 2024. Neither AR-2 or AR-4 are likely wins for Democrats, but strong candidates in both districts, along with a stiff challenge in the northwest, could pay dividends as wave insurance depending on if the GOP House's favorables continue to decline. AR-2 in particular is a potential pickup. Row offices should favor the low-key Republicans who currently hold those offices, and the Republicans will almost assuredly hold their majorities in both houses of the legislature.

California

What Happened Last Year: Alex Padilla easily cruised to reelection, and the rest of the delegation, with the exception of Lucille Roybal, returned to Congress.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom will be leaving office and the early favorite for the Democratic nod is AG Ben Allen, who would shift the Governorship back to SoCal for the first time since 2010. Allen, a determined liberal with establishment ties, would probably clear the field, though there are noises about US Rep. Evan Low taking the plunge. Republicans are defending several seats that could be vulnerable, and a number of longtime Representatives on both sides of the aisle are expected to retire, setting up a potential influx of new, younger liberals into the Democratic delegation. All of the row office positions except Treasurer will feature term-limited incumbents, allowing for a new generation of statewide Democrats to rise to the challenge, though what is likelier is some musical-chairs amongst many of the younger statewide officials.

What Will Likely Happen: Allen should cruise to election, Democrats will likely keep all of their statewide row offices, Democrats should take back some of the Assembly and Senate seats lost in the last two elections, and a number of young new members will join both parties' California delegations. Look for Democrats to pick up one or two Congressional seats, too.

[/]

Brian Sandoval slightly underperformed typical Republican numbers here, as Alaska trended somewhat Democrat in 2024, the only state to do so.

Why?

[KingSweden]

Brian Sandoval slightly underperformed typical Republican numbers here, as Alaska trended somewhat Democrat in 2024, the only state to do so.

Why?

Growing population of telecommuters, Heinrich's "outdoorsy" personality, Sandoval does not make much of an effort there (for obvious reasons).

[KingSweden]

Previewing the 2025/26 Midterm Cycle - Part 2

Colorado

What Happened Last Year: After four straight ballots cast for Democratic candidates, Colorado flipped to Brian Sandoval, helped in large part by the presence of popular Governor Walker Stapleton on the ticket. All of the Congressional incumbents were returned to Congress, the Republicans held the State Senate (narrowly) and narrowed the Democratic majority in the State House.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Newly risen Governor Bill Cadman cuts a considerably more conservative figure than former Governor Stapleton, and Republicans are quietly pressuring him to step down after his term is over to make way for well-regarded and fairly moderate US Rep. Rick Lopez. Lopez would start as a favorite even if Democrats have a good year as expected in 2026, and is likely to face Denver Mayor Mark Ferrandino. Republicans want to recruit Cory Gardner to run against Jared Polis, but sources close to Gardner suggest he is going to remain in his Safe R house seat for the time being rather than run statewide in an increasingly Democratic-friendly state against a top-tier opponent like Polis. Democrats are making noise about challenging Ken Buck in CO-5, likely running Dominick Moreno again, and about trying to retake the likely-open CO-3. Democrats also will be targeting the State Senate for gains to retake that chamber.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats will likely defeat Buck in the suburbs and retake the State Senate, and Polis will in all likelihood hold his seat, especially if Gardner stays in office. Doug Lamborn and the four incumbent Democrats are seen as likely to seek reelection for the time being. Rick Lopez will in all likelihood narrowly win the Governorship, and Republicans will be lucky if they hold two out of the three open row officer seats. In other words, a swingy state will remain fairly evenly split.

Connecticut

What Happened Last Year: Heinrich beat Sandoval by a much smaller margin than is appropriate for Democrats in this state, Republicans gained another House seat while nearly taking a third and Democrats continued to atrophy seats in the legislature.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Governor William Tong is term-limited, creating an opening for Democrats likely to be filled by US Rep. Ted Kennedy, Jr., who according to reports is unhappy in Washington and keen to return to New England and cap off his late-career political career with a Governorship. Kennedy would start as a solid favorite in any race. Republicans are willing to sacrifice a challenge for the Governor's Mansion to keep their two US Reps, Scott Frantz and Clark Chapin in office. Both Frantz and Chapin are the top targets of the DCCC next year and face a major uphill battle.

What Will Likely Happen: Ted Kennedy, Jr. will be inaugurated as Connecticut's 90th Governor in January 2027, Chapin and Frantz will go down - Chapin is particularly vulnerable, with former NFL player Byron Jones already announced - and Democrats will regain some of the lost seats in the legislature as they rebuild from two head-scratching elections the last two cycles.

Delaware

What Happened Last Year: Republican Ken Simpler became the first Republican Governor of Delaware since Mike Castle left office in 1992, the GOP retook the State Senate and nearly took the State House.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Democrats' first goal is to hold retiring Senator Chris Coons' Senate seat, likely with former Governor and current US Rep. Jack Markell, who has promised to serve only one term if elected. Priority two is to retake the Senate and gain some breathing room in the House.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats are nearly maxed out in the Senate map up for election next year, so unless lightning strikes in one of two Sussex County seats, they will probably only enjoy one House of the Legislature moving forward. Republicans have no serious contender for Senate, however, and Brian Pettyjohn is unlikely to run to replace Markell in the House, so both seats should - with qualifiers - be safe for the Democrats.

Florida

What Happened Last Year: Though Senator Pat Murphy survived by more than expected, Brian Sandoval took Florida for the GOP for the first time since 2004. Republicans held their majority in the Congressional delegation and in the legislature, as well.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Governor Carlos Curbelo will face reelection, and as the state continues to grow and move ever-slightly to the left, the good luck of Republicans so far in the 2020s here in Florida may soon run out. US Rep. Darren Soto is expected to challenge Curbelo in a showdown of Florida's main Hispanic demographics, pitting the swingy, liberal-leaning Puerto Ricans against the swingy, conservative-leaning Cubans. Several House seats are competitive and in play - in particular, FL-3, FL-7, FL-9, FL-15, FL-17, and FL-28 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen expected to retire) should all be major targets for the Democrats. The State Senate is only narrowly Republican, and is a much better target for Democrats than the Legislature.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats have a great chance to defeat Curbelo, and if they split half of the competitive GOP-held seats, that would count as a successful cycle. Any gains in the Senate would be welcome, too, where Democrats are expected to target between 4 and 6 seats, hoping to win about half.

Georgia

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval won this state by a wider margin than expected, but Georgia is still a D-trending swing state. Republicans continue to enjoy major majorities in both Houses of the legislature.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Senator David Perdue is retiring, leaving a major opening for Democrats, who are expected to run US Rep. Ricky Dobbs to replace him. Republicans are already sweating this race and the Governor contest, where Tom Graves has been a polarizing figure and former Governor Jason Carter is expected to make a comeback bid. Sanford Bishop is expected to retire, and his black-belt rural seat is expected to be very competitive next year.

What Will Likely Happen: Thanks to runoffs, Graves and whoever emerges from the primary to replace Perdue are likely favorites. Democrats should likely hold Dobbs' and Bishop's House seats, and may pick up some marginal legislature seats. Republicans will sweat all their races deep into the runoffs, however.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

In a post you mentioned that the lib dems were leading in the polls in Britain, what has caused there sudden resurgence to become a major party?

I hate to do this

but...

*their

Anyway, great updates!

Well that's embarrassing.

[libertpaulian]

How does gay rights look?  Did a non-discrimination law ever pass in the Clinton-Heinrich era?  Were there any statewide or municipal non-discrimination laws passed?

[KingSweden]

How does gay rights look?  Did a non-discrimination law ever pass in the Clinton-Heinrich era?  Were there any statewide or municipal non-discrimination laws passed?

Great question! Not a detail I ever fleshed out myself, but yes, during the brief 2017-19 trifecta I can't imagine Democrats didn't pass some kind of ENDA-type law covering the LGBT community. I would think, though, that local laws in liberal states and cities are considerably stronger and tougher than anything passed federally.