Era of the New Majority

[libertpaulian]

How does gay rights look?  Did a non-discrimination law ever pass in the Clinton-Heinrich era?  Were there any statewide or municipal non-discrimination laws passed?

Great question! Not a detail I ever fleshed out myself, but yes, during the brief 2017-19 trifecta I can't imagine Democrats didn't pass some kind of ENDA-type law covering the LGBT community. I would think, though, that local laws in liberal states and cities are considerably stronger and tougher than anything passed federally.

Just employment, or did it cover housing and accommodations too?

[Frodo]

With all the foreign affairs updates, I may have missed China.  What's going on over there at this point? 

Great question. Hu Chunhua replaced Xi and helped broker the reunification of Korea as DPRK collapsed in 2022-23. Xi is still, behind the scenes, extremely influential.

Has political reform within China begun yet with this change of leadership? 

[KingSweden]

With all the foreign affairs updates, I may have missed China.  What's going on over there at this point? 

Great question. Hu Chunhua replaced Xi and helped broker the reunification of Korea as DPRK collapsed in 2022-23. Xi is still, behind the scenes, extremely influential.

Has political reform within China begun yet with this change of leadership? 

Democratic reform? Doubtful. Especially not with Xi loyalists largely running the show. Continued anti-corruption and civil service reform? I would think so, yes.

How does gay rights look?  Did a non-discrimination law ever pass in the Clinton-Heinrich era?  Were there any statewide or municipal non-discrimination laws passed?

Great question! Not a detail I ever fleshed out myself, but yes, during the brief 2017-19 trifecta I can't imagine Democrats didn't pass some kind of ENDA-type law covering the LGBT community. I would think, though, that local laws in liberal states and cities are considerably stronger and tougher than anything passed federally.

Just employment, or did it cover housing and accommodations too?

I can't imagine it wouldn't cover housing and accommodation in some form. The activists would settle for nothing less.

[The_Doctor]

Question - am I still allowed to use material from this timeline for Between Two Majorities? I'm slowly getting back into it and I wanted to know if I could borrow from your excellent timeline, including maybe names alongside the sports, and foreign policy information? I'd credit you of course.

[KingSweden]

Previewing the 2025/26 Midterm Cycle - Part 3

Hawaii

What Happened Last Year: Mazie Hirono retired after two terms in the Senate and was quickly replaced by Democratic rising star Tulsi Gabbard, who became America's first Hindu Senator. Maui State Rep. Kaniela Ing's historic primary victory led to the first US Representative from Hawaii to hail from outside of Oahu.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: The only major race, other than two House races that are locks for the Democrats, is the Governor's run, which at this time also looks like a clear lock for popular and inoffensive incumbent Governor Shan Tsutsui.

What Will Likely Happen: US Reps. Mark Takano and Kaniela Ing breeze to reelection, Tsutsui wins another landslide and Democrats maintain their stranglehold on the Hawaii legislature.

Idaho

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval slightly underperformed typical GOP numbers in this state - though underperforming here means still getting 65% of the vote.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Longtime US Rep. Mike Simpson is retiring at 76 after 28 years in the House, almost guaranteeing he gets replaced by a more conservative Congressman out of what is sure to be a wild and vicious primary pitting libertarian Northern Idaho against Mormon Southeast Idaho. Governor Brandon D. Woolf, a known supporter of term limits, will honor his pledge to not seek a third term - allegedly eyeing the slot is conservative US Rep. Curt McKenzie, an ally of senior Senator Raul Labrador. If McKenzie, from the right wing of the Idaho GOP, makes an entrance, one can expect Woolf and his more establishment-flavored allies to do their best to make sure he doesn't reach the Governor's Mansion - the likeliest roadblock Idaho Speaker of the House Brent Crane, no moderate himself, who is also a potential candidate for McKenzie's hypothetical open seat.

What Will Likely Happen: Simpson is replaced by a much more conservative representative, Curtis McKenzie utilizes the broad, libertarian-ish Labrador network to narrowly beat out Crane in the primary for Governor and Brandon Woolf is recruited by the national GOP to fill McKenzie's seat, which with his smarts, moderate character and executive skills would make him an asset in Congress. The Idaho GOP will continue to dominate both houses of the legislature.

Illinois

What Happened Last Year: Martin Heinrich won Illinois by a grim (by Democratic standards) margin, longtime US Rep. Dan Lipinski was defeated in his suburban district by the narrowest of margins, and Republicans finally flipped the Illinois House, holding a narrow 62-56 majority.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Illinois' job and population losses, particularly outside of Chicago, are so acute that it is on pace to lose two Congressional districts in the next redistricting cycle. Outside of wealthier parts of Chicago like the Northside and the Loop, the city is careening towards an almost Detroit-esque decline, having been named the most dangerous city in the country six years in a row. The state is still suffering from the disastrous 2018 public default and its credit is still in junk status. Needless to say - Illinois has some serious problems. A row of Governors have been imprisoned or bounced by the public for incompetence - not since Rod Blagojevich has a Governor been elected to two terms in his own right, with Pat Quinn, Bruce Rauner and in 2022 Tom Dart all getting ejected after only one term. Since Republicans took over the House last fall, the state has been broiled in yet another budget crisis, with more budget cuts, walkouts by public employees, and faces a partial shutdown in July if Governor Bob Dold cannot cut a deal with Senate Democrats. The old joke from 2022 - "Who Wants to Run Illinois? Who Would Want To?" will likely apply next year.

Besides a Governor's race that no Democrats have declared for and many Republicans are skeptical Dold wants to win, Democrats are expected to take back the House and make gains in the Senate, pressing their advantage. Though nearly eradicated downstate, Democrats are hoping to knock out Congressmen Bost, Davis and LaHood by tying dysfunction in Congress in Washington to the debacle in Springfield, and hope that they can get away from the IL Democratic Party's association with Cook County and its myriad issues. In Chicagoland, Democrats are crossing their fingers that they can finally knock off moderate Adam Kinzinger, take back IL-6 from Mark Batinick, and finally crack Randy Hultgren and Pete Roskam in the suburbs. Senator Mike Frerichs, a popular downstate Democrats, is not expected to face a serious challenge, and Democrats should hold all row officer positions as they currently do.

What Will Likely Happen: Nobody knows who is going to challenge Dold for the Governor's seat, so at best this race starts at Tossup/Lean D until a good candidate enters the race. Democrats should snatch IL-5 and IL-6, saying goodbye to moderate influences like Kinzinger and Batinick, but the other districts will be a bigger hurdle, particularly entrenched, powerful incumbents like Roskam and Hultgren (although if Hultgren acts on the rumors that he is retiring, look out - the longtime Republican area could flip). Downstate, getting one out of the three of LaHood, Davis and Bost would constitute a good night. Republicans are highly unlikely to hold the Illinois House, especially if there's a government shutdown in July.

Indiana

What Happened Last Year: Big wins for President Sandoval, Governor Ellspermann and Senator Rokita in the Hoosier State.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Probably a quiet year in Indiana. There is no Gubernatorial or Senate seat up for election. Outside of IN-2 and IN-9, there are no major Democratic targets on the map, though there is chatter about trying to take out Larry Bucshon at long last - whether Democrats can knock out the eight-term Rep. remains to be seen.

What Will Likely Happen: Republicans hold all their seats despite a scare in IN-2 and IN-9, Democrats gain a few seats in the State Legislature, and the GOP maintains its dominance over Indiana.

Iowa

What Happened Last Year: Brian Sandoval narrowly won Iowa, becoming the first GOP candidate to carry it since 2004. Still, it was by an extremely narrow margin of 18,000 votes and Democrats did not suffer heavy losses downballot, only losing one seat in the Senate instead of the three they feared to effect a 25-25 tie.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Democrats like their chances. Bill Northey will retire after two terms in the Governor's mansion and does not seem interested in running for Senate - which is good, since Democrats are looking at defending an open seat after Tom Vilsack's surprise announcement in early May that he would retire due to health concerns. The top Democratic recruit for Governor is former US Rep. - and former Governor - Chet Culver, who is said to be itching to return to statewide office. For Vilsack's seat, Democrats are apparently circling US Rep. Kyle Orton, a former NFL quarterback, to enter the race, which would open a competitive race in his IA-3 district. Neither of Iowa's promising young Congresswomen, Anesa Kajtazovic or Megan Jones, are expected to enter either race at this time. The Senate map, without Grassley or Northey on the ballot, looks very promising for Democrats.

What Will Likely Happen: Republicans are apparently circling former US Senator Joni Ernst for a comeback attempt in their best pickup opportunity in 2026, and are hoping that former Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds will make a comeback too in the Governor's race, pitting two conservative and savvy women against the Democratic ticket. Democrats will probably hold the Senate seat narrowly with Orton, Republicans should be a slight favorite in the Governor's race, but it depends on how the map unfolds. Democrats should also be slight favorites to hold IA-3, albeit narrowly like always, and to retake full control of the State Senate and give Republicans a genuine challenge in the House.

[KingSweden]

Previewing the 2025/26 Midterm Cycle - Part 4

Kansas

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval won the state 56-41, and the entire Congressional delegation returned unchanged.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Governor Derek Schmidt has made a tremendous effort to repair the damage wrought by Sam Brownback and Kris Kobach on the reputation of the KSGOP and its standing in a state it dominates. Though the atrophy in the state party has not shown at the ballot box - it helps running against Democrats with an unpopular President in the White House - the party has suffered since the decline in Koch money over the last few years and the declining population of Kansas, one of the few states in America that is shrinking while ageing more rapidly than any other state. Senator Kevin Yoder, up for reelection, is the definition of a backbencher - he has kept his head down and mouth shut since replacing Pat Roberts in 2020, though he has earned a nasty reputation back home as a shill for Wall Street, which doesn't help in a heartland state. Democrats see an opportunity - though they are unlikely to beat Yoder in a state where they haven't elected a Senator in close to a century, they want to force Republicans to spend money here defending him. Though they are unlikely to beat Schmidt, they are recruiting Greg Orman, a former candidate for Senate who ran in 2014 in a quixotic independent campaign, to take on the incumbent Governor and force the RGA to spend money here too. And they have US Reps. Lynn Jenkins, a member of Congressional leadership, and Caryn Tyson, squarely in their crosshairs. After cultivating a group of talented young leaders at the statehouse and local level, Democrats are ready to make a play in one of America's most Republican states.

What Will Likely Happen: Yoder and Schmidt should both be reelected, with Schmidt facing a riskier run. Both Jenkins and Tyson should start as favorites, but Democratic chances here should not be underestimated. Democrats have a good chance at biting into GOP majorities in the state house, but are of course unlikely to seize either chamber, particularly the House, where they have a particularly large disadvantage.

Kentucky

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval easily won Kentucky against the awful-fit Heinrich, and Republicans held on to the State House and all their congressional seats.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Hal Rogers is retiring after 46 years in Congress, and in the safe, ancestrally Republican 5th, the GOP will get a much more conservative voice than the great appropriator who is leaving. Longtime US Rep. John Yarmuth is stepping down, too, which means Dakota Meyer, at only 38, will soon find himself as the dean of the delegation. Both seats are completely safe, though - the only expected battleground will be the attempt to dislodge Ryan Quarles in the now-swingy 6th in central Kentucky.

The big-ticket items for Democrats, of course, are the State House and the US Senate seat held by Andy Barr. With right-to-work having been passed in 2023 and Thomas Massie having run Kentucky as a right-libertarian laboratory, many of the more classically rural populist Kentucky voters have rapidly soured on the KYGOP. Massie has also repeatedly clashed with social conservatives over hemp and marijuana legalization and other agricultural issues, creating an opening for conservative rural Democrats to run against vulnerable State Reps. As for Barr, his campaign chest is low and he is not particularly popular - Massie disciples dislike his support for the defense and intelligence establishment and votes against hemp legalization, the coal industry is frustrated by his lack of leadership on new EPA rules he has repeatedly failed to draft, and conservative groups are angry at his moderate record. Democrats have recruited Kentucky Secretary of State Adam Edelen to run, and Barr might just have a race on his hands.

What Will Likely Happen: Quarles should hang on the 6th, Barr will likely eke out a narrow win over Edelen, and Democrats will likely capitalize on voter frustration in Kentucky to snatch back the State House of Representatives by a narrow margin. Kentucky remains one of the states in the South where Democrats have a terrific state party operation, and it will show in the tight races.

Louisiana

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval won more narrowly than expected for a Deep South state, and new Congressmen were elected in Safe Republican districts.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Bill Cassidy faces voters next year, but unless the Republican Party collapses nationwide he should be fine in the runoff, which he likely advances to. The whole House delegation is expected to seek reelection.

What Will Likely Happen: Everyone gets reelected.

Maine

What Happened Last Year: Brian Sandoval stunned the political world by narrowly carrying Maine's 2nd Congressional district to earn its lonely electoral vote, Garrett Mason defeated Troy Jackson to flip Angus King's Senate seat, and Eric Brakey snatched the open 2nd. In other words, one of the best nights for Republicans in Maine history.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: A potential major upheaval in multiple offices. Susan Collins is retiring after 30 years in the Senate and Governor Chellie Pingree is term-limited. Pingree's daughter, US Rep. Hannah Pingree, is expected to seek the Senate seat. Brakey is reportedly undecided if he will run for Senate, run for Governor or defend his seat - either way, ME-2 will be one of the top targets on Democrats' list. And there is no word yet on who Democrats are recruiting for the Gubernatorial race or the open ME-1 slot. Up to all four major offices in Maine could have new faces in them in January of 2027. And as if that's not enough - Republicans have a precariously narrow majority in the House which they have to defend, and the Senate map is full of term-limited incumbents who were elected in the 2018 wave.

What Will Likely Happen: Maine swings very erratically between the two parties, and Democrats could either wind up with one of four major offices up next year or all four. They should easily recapture the House and have good odds to retake the Senate.

Maryland

What Happened Last Year: Democrats lost MD-3 by a heartbreaking, narrow margin even as Heinrich carried the state.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Democrats will be aiming for Nic Kipke in MD-3 and David Brinkley in MD-5. Both will be difficult targets. Andy Harris is expected to retire, ending the career of the dean of Maryland's delegation. John Delaney is term-limited, and Democrats seem to be coalescing around Montgomery County Executive Eric Luedtke while Republicans are trying to recruit Anne Arundel County CE Mike Pantalides.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats knock out Kipke, fall just shy against Brinkley and retain the Governor's Mansion for a third straight term for the first time since 1994.

[KingSweden]

Previewing the 2025/26 Midterm Cycle - Part 5

Massachusetts

What Happened Last Year: Heinrich won, as every Democrat has done in MA since 1988, and the Kennedy family returned to the Senate as Joseph P. Kennedy III replaced Liz Warren.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Potential 2028 Democratic candidate Seth Moulton will seek reelection to a second term in the Governor's Mansion. Ed Markey is apparently deciding to call it a career after 50 years in Congress, at the age of 80. The consensus choice to replace him is 42-year old US Rep. Josh Zakim, who would become Massachusetts' first Jewish Senator if elected. With Bill Keating and Niki Tsongas both retiring, this would give three open seats in the Bay State.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats always have an advantage in Massachusetts, and if the national picture turns against Republicans, it will be a decisive one. Moulton will look to score a landslide win to help build his credentials in time for the 2028 Presidential race. All three House seats should be beyond safe D. Democrats will likely snag back a few seats in each legislative chamber.

Michigan

What Happened Last Year: Heinrich won Michigan by a piddling number, and Democrats only narrowly held Debbie Stabenow's open Senate seat. Republicans very nearly flipped Michigan's lower House.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Gary Peters has announced his retirement nice and early, surprising many Michigan political observers. The replacement is obvious - firebrand Governor Gretchen Whitmer is all but assured to run, and with connections both to establishment Democrats, labor unions and the Detroit machine run by her former Lt. Gov. Coleman Young II, she should clear the primary. Republicans have not begun to settle yet on a candidate outside of some gadflyish candidates, wanting to keep their US Reps. in the House to prevent a big Democratic sweep - because that is the risk. Fred Upton is retiring after 38 years in the House, Tim Walberg and Phil Pavlov are top targets for the DCCC, Justin Amash is making noise about leaving politics after years of frustration with GOP leadership and the direction of the party, and both Justin Pennington and Travis Pill have struggled with fundraising and building out their congressional infrastructure in either of their home districts. Though a clean sweep of the Michigan delegation is highly unlikely, there is a genuine chance that Bill Huizenga is the sole member of the GOP delegation in Michigan come January 2027.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats pick up two or three House seats, Whitmer cruises to a massive win in the Senate race, and Democrats narrowly hold the Governor's Mansion with current favorite Steve Bieda. Democrats expand their majority in the Michigan House and slightly cut into the Republican majority in the Michigan Senate. Essentially a status-quo election.

Minnesota

What Happened Last Year: New Senate Minority Leader Amy Klobuchar cruised to a fourth term, Heinrich carried the state by six points and the whole Congressional delegation was returned. The DFL lost the Minnesota House.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Governor Lori Swanson and Senator Al Franken are both retiring, and neither seems likely to seek the others' office, leaving two juicy open seats for ambitious Democrats (and maybe even Republicans). US Rep. Matt Schmit seems to have Franken's seat on lock, and DFL leaders expect US Rep. Rebecca Otto to make the leap for Governor, thus opening up two House seats. Few expect US Rep. Torrey Westrom to enter any race from the GOP side, leaving Republicans to rely on state legislators to reclaim these offices.

What Will Likely Happen: In Minnesota, DFL should retain both statewide offices, and may have a fight for Schmit's suburban/exurban seat. They do not need many seats to retake the state House, and will be favored to do so.

Mississippi

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval won the state by 15 points and Roger Wicker was easily reelected. Derrick Simmons and Chris McDaniel entered the House as freshmen.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Stacey Pickering, the uncontroversial and moderate (by Mississippi standards) junior Senator, is the major name on the ballot next year, though the rumor is that delegation dean Gregg Harper intends to retire after 18 years in the House and that State Rep. Lauren Childers intends to challenge US Rep. Brad Mayo. Needless to say, there could be some new faces in the House from the Magnolia State next year.

What Will Likely Happen?: Harper retires and is replaced by a more conservative candidate, Pickering cruises to a second term and Childers gives Mayo a race but eventually falls short. Simmons and McDaniel have no trouble getting reelected.

Missouri

What Happaned Last Year: Republicans had a banner year, sweeping all statewide offices for the first time and re-electing Ann Wagner to the Senate over popular outgoing Governor Chris Koster, in addition to Sandoval carrying the state by eight points.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: There is no Senate or gubernatorial election, and none of the House incumbents seem likely to retire. Democrats could pick off a few legislative seats, but no wave seems in the offing.

What Will Likely Happen: A status quo election in Missouri, with Democrats maybe seeing limited success in the House, but nothing major.

[KingSweden]

Previewing the 2025/26 Midterm Cycle - Part 6

Montana

What Happened Last Year: Montana, at the Presidential level, trended slightly Democratic though it still swung to Sandoval by four points. Longtime US Senator Jon Tester narrowly lost an election to Chas Vincent that was expected to be a blowout loss, giving hope to Democrats. Republicans held the Governorship with popular incumbent Tim Fox and narrowly held the state's at-large seat with young State Senator Collin Tejada.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Democrats will defend Senator Steve Bullock, likely against either new US Rep. Collin Tejada or former Senator Steve Daines. If Tejada runs, look for the openly-gay Bennett to make a run for this seat again in a bid to become the first gay Democrat to win an R+ PVI House district (citation needed). Democrats are hoping they can pick up the three State Senate seats needed to take back the chamber - with Montana's rapid growth in several swingy areas, they are in better position than many think to do so.

What Will Likely Happen: Tejada challenges Bullock and makes it a race - if turnout is poor, especially on Montana's large Indian reservations, Tejada could narrowly win in this unlikely swing state. Besides Iowa, this is definitely the best potential GOP pickup. Bennett likely falls just short in the House and Democrats have some nice gains at the the state legislative level but not enough to take back either chamber.

Nebraska

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval carried the state's 5 electoral votes, Deb Fischer was replaced by conservative John Kuehn, and Republicans carried vulnerable NE-2 by only 500 votes.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: After coming only 500 votes shy of defeating Jean Stothert, Sara Howard is now placing her bets on running for Governor against Doug Peterson, Nebraska's uncontroversial, mainstream Republican executive. Senator Ben Sasse is popular and unlikely to face a stiff challenge, so the push instead from Democrats will be in NE-1 and NE-2, the second of which could see a particularly epic challenge from Omaha Mayor Jeremy Nordquist, and in the 1st, Jeff Fortenberry's retirement and a district including little more than increasingly-liberal Lincoln and slowly-trending D Sarpy County may reveal an unlikely pickup opportunity.

What Will Likely Happen: If Democrats can snatch NE-2 in a year like 2014, they can definitely take it back in a midterm with an unpopular Republican Congress and a GOP President. NE-1 is probably still too conservative for Democrats to make a serious play. Both Peterson and Sasse should be safe at the top of the ballot, regardless of what happens in either of the House districts.

Nevada

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval put NV back in the GOP column for the first time since 2004, carrying his purplish home state by eight points. Thanks to his coattails, Republicans reelected Senator Dean Heller, snatched the open NV-4, and flipped the Nevada House to effect a trifecta.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Governor Joe Heck faces a stiff challenge from Ross Miller, the state Attorney General, and both NV-4 and NV-3 figure to feature prominently in the DCCC's campaign to retake the House. Democrats like the Senate map facing them in Nevada, too.

What Will Likely Happen: NV-4 flips back, Roberson hangs on in NV-3 by the narrowest of margins, Miller and Heck's tossup goes down to the wire, and Democrats retake both chambers, especially since Sandoval won't be on the ticket this year.

New Hampshire

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval became the first GOP candidate to carry the Granite State since 2000. Andy Sanborn became the first GOP candidate to win a two-year gubernatorial term since 2002. The GOP expanded its margins in both chambers of the New Hampshire legislature, and Chuck Morse easily put away all comers in NH-1.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Popular Senator Joe Foster is up for reelection, and despite noise about running Chuck Morse, Republicans will have enough seats to defend as it is, making him a likely reelect. Andy Sanborn figures to face Executive Councillor Colin Van Ostern, a rising star in the NHDP, for reelection, and Van Ostern would start as a favorite - the very conservative GOP agenda passed in New Hampshire since January has turned a lot of voters strongly against the party in the last six months. Morse will be in the crosshairs in a swing district in a famously elastic state.

What Will Likely Happen: Foster cruises, Van Ostern takes down Sanborn and Morse ekes out a painfully narrow win. Democrats retake the House and the GOP Senate majority is whittled down.

New Jersey

What Happened Last Year: A lone bright spot for Democrats, as Heinrich carried the state, the heavily-Democratic Congressional delegation was returned, and Gabriela Mosquera succeeded Bob Menendez in a Senate contest that was never competitive. Bill Hughes, Jr. survived despite being one of the NRCC's top targets.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: It's actually not next year - when Cory Booker faces voters again and Tom MacArthur reappears on the DCCC's hit list - but this fall when New Jersey has an intriguing election, as Governor Tom Kean faces voters after an uneven first term. New Jersey's economic outlook has stabilized and the northern part of the state is booming again, but unemployment, taxes and house prices remain stubbornly high, while wage growth and the state's credit rating remains stubbornly low. Investments in infrastructure, rebuilding crumbling public schools, and decentralizing power from his own office will likely help Kean, who will share the ticket for the first time with candidates for Attorney General, Secretary of State and other row offices created as part of a landmark constitutional reform in 2023.

What Will Likely Happen: Next year, Booker and MacArthur both start as favorites, though both are also attracting whispers of primary campaigns from the extremes of their parties. This fall, meanwhile, Kean starts as a prohibitive favorite over US Rep. Paul Sarlo, while Republicans are likely to take between a third to half of the six new row offices (AG, SOS, Treasurer, Auditor, Insurance Commissioner, and Superintendent of Public Education). Democrats should maintain their legislative majorities, especially now that the drag of Steve Fulop is long gone.

[Frodo]

With all the foreign affairs updates, I may have missed China.  What's going on over there at this point? 

Great question. Hu Chunhua replaced Xi and helped broker the reunification of Korea as DPRK collapsed in 2022-23. Xi is still, behind the scenes, extremely influential.

Has political reform within China begun yet with this change of leadership? 

Democratic reform? Doubtful. Especially not with Xi loyalists largely running the show. Continued anti-corruption and civil service reform? I would think so, yes.

So you're not expecting a Taiwanese-style democratic evolution to take place on the mainland? 

For point of reference, it took 6-7 years between when Chiang Ching-kuo (the son of the late Chiang Kai-shek) publicly pledged democratic reform in 1986 to the first full, free elections to parliament in 1992.   

[KingSweden]

With all the foreign affairs updates, I may have missed China.  What's going on over there at this point? 

Great question. Hu Chunhua replaced Xi and helped broker the reunification of Korea as DPRK collapsed in 2022-23. Xi is still, behind the scenes, extremely influential.

Has political reform within China begun yet with this change of leadership? 

Democratic reform? Doubtful. Especially not with Xi loyalists largely running the show. Continued anti-corruption and civil service reform? I would think so, yes.

So you're not expecting a Taiwanese-style democratic evolution to take place on the mainland? 

For point of reference, it took 6-7 years between when Chiang Ching-kuo (the son of the late Chiang Kai-shek) publicly pledged democratic reform in 1986 to the first full, free elections to parliament in 1992.   

Not by 2025, no. By the mid-2030s or early 2040s? Absolutely.

[KingSweden]

Previewing the 2025/26 Midterm Cycle - Part 7

New Mexico

What Happened Last Year: Martin Heinrich carried his home state, his successor Tim Keller was securely reelected, and the arch-conservative GOP New Mexico House, led by firebrand Jason Harper, saw its majority slightly expanded.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Nearly every office in New Mexico up for election next year should see new blood. All the 2018 statewide winners are term-limited, Senator Tom Udall is retiring and both Steve Pearce and Michelle Lujan Grisham are set to retire as well. Governor Hector Balderas has already effectively cleared the field for Udall's Senate seat, while longtime Congressman Ben Ray Lujan is looking set to clear the field for Governor, likely facing Treasurer Michael Padilla for the job. Speaker Jason Harper is expected to seek the Governorship, with rumors of discontent within his ranks and likely losses in the narrowly-controlled House inspiring him to jump ship.

What Will Likely Happen: Balderas and Lujan are easily elected Senator and Governor. Padilla drops down to replace one of the retiring Congressmen in the House. Democrats look poised to easily take back the New Mexico House, and have an outside chance at picking up NM-2 with the popular Pearce not having groomed a true successor.

New York

What Happened Last Year: Republicans picked off Lovely Warren to narrow the Democrats' delegation lead to 15-11 while Heinrich and Myrick won big at the top of the ballot. Republicans also grew their Senate majority to 35-28.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: House Minority Leader Joe Crowley has stated that his first priority is to "rebuild the New York Democratic majority," which seems odd considering that the party holds most of the House seats and the state's statewide offices. Still, it is shaping up to be a good year for Democrats here - oddsmakers expect between 5-6 House seats to flip, and Preet Bharara is running for a third term. The Senate could go Democratic again, too. The big election is in 2025, however, when Mayor Eric Adams faces NYC voters again. He has come under fire for the left for his moderate, consensus-based style and his pro-developer policies, but neither the Republicans for WFP are likely to have the firepower to take out the affable Adams, especially since black voters - a core constituency for NYC Democrats - are largely behind their mayor.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats get five seats in the House, abetted by gains in Long Island and an upstate district or two, flip the Senate, and reelect their popular Governor by a landslide again.

North Carolina

What Happened Last Year: Brian Sandoval flipped North Carolina after two straight votes for Hillary Clinton, Patrick McHenry took back the Governorship and Republicans maintained their dominance in the House and state legislature.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Senator Anthony Foxx is up for reelection, and North Carolina has a long and storied history of ejecting Senators after one term. Whoever Republicans tap to take on Foxx - US Rep. Chris Colton is the dream candidate, though is seen as unlikely to run - will be in the epicenter of what will surely be the premier Senate race next year. In swingy, purple Tar Heel state, if Republicans cannot pick off Foxx - or, for that matter, take open Iowa - then they are unlikely to build on their Senate gains from the last two cycles.

Democrats, meanwhile, are eyeballing suburban House seats in the Charlotte and Triangle areas. This could finally be the year where there is a breakthrough for the Democrats on a favorable map. The legislature is unlikely to flip, though Democrats can make gains in both houses.

What Will Likely Happen: If the mood is neutral, Foxx is in a dogfight. If the mood swings against the GOP, as first-term midterms often do, Foxx should be reelected, albeit probably not by a landslide. A good night for Democrats would see them flip one House seat - a terrific night would see two or three flip. The NC Legislature will probably see some declines in the GOP majorities, though Democrats will be hard pressed to flip either chamber.

North Dakota

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval blew out Heinrich here and Kelly Schmidt was comfortably reelected.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Kevin Cramer is retiring, leaving a narrow opening for Democrats in a state that is not as unfriendly to them as it looks. There are no other major offices up for election in ND in 2026, so the open House seat is the major race.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats will do their best here, but the state is still a Republican stronghold and Cramer will likely be succeeded by Attorney General Adam Hamm.

Ohio

What Happened Last Year: Republicans retook Sherrod Brown's Senate seat thanks to US Rep. Frank LaRose, and held all of their vulnerable House seats.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Governor Jon Husted is term limited, and Democrats like the chances of Attorney General Joe Schiavoni. It is yet unclear who Republicans will coalesce around, though US Rep. Jim Hughes is said to be popular with the establishment. Meanwhile, OH-1 and OH-14 look set to be open thanks to retirements by Steve Chabot and David Joyce, giving Democrats two outstanding pickup opportunities. There are two or three other potential targets on this map (OH-3, OH-9, and OH-13) but it remains to be seen if Democrats can capitalize in these regions. Republicans, meanwhile, feel confident in their ability to keep all five seats. It will be a very expensive and exciting fall in Ohio, especially if any other incumbents like Latta or Tiberi retire.

What Will Likely Happen: Republicans cap Democratic Congressional gains at two, the Governor race goes down to the wire (Pure Tossup at this time), and Democrats make modest gains in the two legislative chambers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can't wait for updates. 2026 should be interesting.

[KingSweden]

Hello everyone! Been a while, I know. Vacation and then busy with different things.

Previewing the 2025/26 Midterm Cycle - Part 8

Oklahoma

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval cruised to a monster win here and Republicans continued their stranglehold on offices up and down the ballot.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: David Brumbaugh, who earned conservative ire when he broke a pledge to serve only three terms, has agreed to retire this time around, denying Brian Sandoval a crucial friend in Republican leadership. US Rep. David Holt is expected to retire to seek the Governorship, leaving another seat open, and both Tom Cole and Frank Lucas are expected to retire after long tenures in Congress. In other words, four of Oklahoma's five Congressional districts are expected to be open.

Nobody expects Democrats to have any chance in OK-3 or OK-4, but there is a terrific chance in the rapidly growing OKC area to challenge for OK-5, which has sunk to a R+4 district in the last decade. In all three other open seats, a more conservative Republican should be expected to prevail, denying Speaker Kevin McCarthy the votes of three of his close allies in Brumbaugh, Cole and Lucas. It is a potentially seismic House election in the Sooner State this year. In the Governor's race, meanwhile, Holt should be the far and away favorite over any Republican opponents with his connections to the state party network, Senators Lankford and Lamb and his mentor, current HUD Secretary Mick Cornett. Senator Lamb, speaking of which, has been a quiet backbencher and should face no risk in either the primary or the general.

What Will Likely Happen: Republicans sweep all four seats, taking right outside of the OKC metro and running to the middle with someone from the Cornett school of GOP politics in diverse OK-5. Holt can start measuring the drapes in the Governor's Mansion, Republicans maintain their vice-grip on the legislature, and Todd Lamb can go through the formality of a general election.

Oregon

What Happened Last Year: Heinrich won Oregon by a narrower margin than Oregon Democrats are accustomed to, while Republicans saw a "quiet landslide" in holding all three of their D-leaning House seats and flipping the Oregon Senate.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: The grand success of Republicans in Oregon the last two cycles looks unsustainable, especially if the budget fights in Washington and the economy worsen in tandem. Governor Greg Walden will face former US Rep. Chris Edwards, who has the benefit of being a mainstream liberal but not from Multnomah County, denying Walden his best avenue to success (Edwards would probably have beaten Walden in '22). Democrats are already lining up House Speaker Toby Read to run to replace the retiring Jeff Merkley after Suzanne Bonamici expressed her preference to stay in the House. In the three House seats and the State Senate, Democrats have a "Three-For-Three" plan, hoping to take back the Oregon Senate and their delegation majority by running the table. Their odds are pretty good.

What Will Likely Happen: It would take a miraculous turnaround for Republicans to carry OR-3 and OR-6, and a very good midterm for Republicans to hang on to OR-5. Greg Walden needs to hope an ur-liberal along the lines of Tina Kotek is his opponent again, otherwise his long career is likely over. As for the retiring Merkley's seat, Oregon Republicans concede that they are unlikely to defeat unoffensive suburban liberal Toby Read for the seat in an environment likely to be neutral-to-Democrat Favored. Democrats will be sorely disappointed if they do not make big gains in suburban legislative districts.

Pennsylvania

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval narrowly failed to snatch the Keystone State for Republicans for the first time since 1988 and Ryan Costello lost his second straight narrow Senate election. It isn't all bad for Republicans, however, as they enjoy a trifecta in PA and hold all statewide constitutional offices, sweeping all three last year.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Bob Casey is finally running for the job he has always wanted - the Governorship. Facing him is Charlie Dent, a moderate and well-regarded Republican incumbent who may be the best fit for the state from the GOP. This may be the biggest Gubernatorial race in modern Pennsylvania history, featuring the biggest name in the party in each state.

In other elections, Democrats are aiming for three seats in the US House as their target, while hoping to flip the Senate with a friendly map. The PA House is probably out of reach unless Democrats can run the table in all 10 seats they are targeting.

What Will Likely Happen: The Governor's race is a total tossup. Casey and Dent are both popular and centrist figures, and the race could genuinely go either way. Two House flips for Democrats can be expected, especially in the collar counties/Allentown region. A very good scenario would be four pickups, and a landslide would see them snatch up PA-4, PA-6, PA-8, PA-11, PA-12, PA-16 and PA-17 - a seven seat pickup. Unlikely, but PA Dems are confident they can pull it off in addition to flipping one of the two legislative houses, where the Republican officeholders are much more conservative and partisan than the man who sits in the Governor's mansion.

Rhode Island

What Happened Last Year: Heinrich won Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse cruised to reelection (again) and James Langevin easily won reelection (again).

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Independent Governor Ken Block faces voters again, and despite Rhode Island's anemic growth and high poverty, Block remains personally popular and has made reforms to the state government applauded by both sides. Republicans are unlikely to challenge for this seat, which will actually damage Block - it will allow Democrats to portray him as the de-facto Republican nominee. Whoever Democrats settle on as their candidate will also have the advantage of sharing the ballot with popular Senator Seth Magaziner.

What Will Likely Happen: Magaziner and Langevin cruise to reelection. Block starts as a narrow favorite, but Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza is angling to take on the Independent in a state infamous for its corrupt Democratic Party. Look for Elorza to win in the end.

South Carolina

What Happened Last Year: The Palmetto State gave Brian Sandoval a big win and the whole delegation was returned with little issue.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Firebrand conservative Mick Mulvaney is term-limited, which means he'll need to find a new job. Early reports indicate he wants longtime Senator Lindsey Graham's, setting up a monster primary next year. Many Republicans like Graham's even keel and pro-military tilt in a state reliant on military spending. The other branch of the SC GOP is ready to boot Graham for his litany of perceived heresies over the years and add an "angry DeMint" to the Senate, especially as their poster boy Ted Cruz was ejected in last year's Texas primary. The war of the two factions will continue between these two upstate Republicans.

The Governor's race will then be the other source of intrigue. Nikki Haley is aiming for a return, locking up crucial early endorsements and resources. Challenging her will be longtime State Senator Paul Thurmond, whose last name will earn him plaudits with older voters but whose moderate views, by SC GOP standards, will likely give him a cold reception by many upstaters and rural activists. Haley starts as a favorite, but Thurmond will likely start with the Charleston area locked down. Winning the Columbia area will be key.

Meanwhile, both Tom Rice and Mark Sanford are seen as likely to retire. Neither seat is at risk of dropping to Democrats, but the primaries will likely mirror the battles being seen in the statewide races, and the SC delegation could move even further right, if that was even possible.

What Will Likely Happen: Graham and Haley both prevail with institutional support while Sanford and Rice are replaced by more conservative Representatives

[KingSweden]

Previewing the 2025/25 Midterm Cycle - Part 9

South Dakota

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval won South Dakota, becoming the 15th straight Republican to carry the state in a Presidential election. Other than that, there was not much going on in the Rushmore State.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: There will be three big offices open in SD next year - Mike Rounds is retiring after two terms, surprising local Republicans who thought he'd stick around at least one more term. The transition will be easy - term-limited Governor Kristi Noem is the far-and-away favorite to succeed him, having already cleared the field, and her open spot is likely to be filled by moderate US Rep. Marty Jackley, who will face ultra-conservative State Senator Mark Prague (fic) in what expects to be a contested primary in a normally low-key Midwestern state. That leaves Jackley's seat wide open, and Democrats are already circling former State Senator and South Dakota Democratic chair Jason Frerichs to run, while they've coaxed the Hamlet of the Prairies Brendan Johnson into facing Noem for his father's old Senate seat. This is one of the most high-profile Senate races in South Dakota in a long, long time. Frerichs, who is resigning as party chairman this fall, also spoke highly of many legislative recruits.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats lack a top-shelf candidate for Governor, where they have not won an election in 52 years - the longest streak in the nation for either party. If Jackley can knock out the firebrand Prague, SD can look forward to another eight years of genial center-right Republican rule. This is the likeliest option, considering the state's political temperament. Democrats secretly hope that Prague ekes out a win, though, as sharing a ticket with the divisive and controversial State Senator would certainly help Johnson and Frerichs in their respective races. Noem starts as a favorite for this slot, especially in Senate Majority Leader John Thune's home state, and should win over Johnson, though this will be a high-profile matchup. The House seat will likely wind up going to the Republicans, but in a small state where retail politics matters, Frerichs could wind up with a small advantage over whoever emerges bloodied from what is sure to be a rough GOP primary.

Tennessee

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval cruised, Haslam crushed a no-name Knoxville businessman and Republicans maintained their locks on the legislature.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Part of the reason why Republicans have maintained their lock on the Volunteer State for so long, other than the long-term realignment of the South, is that in the genteel political environment of the state, Republicans have put up gentlemanly politicians like Bill Frist, Fred Thompson, Lamar Alexander, Bob Corker and Bill Haslam as their topline leaders, all men who fit the laid-back conservatism of the state and are uncontroversial Republicans. But no more. In 2020, the state elected Stephen Fincher to the Senate and earlier this year replaced Corker with right-wing Ron Ramsey after Corker left to serve as Secretary of State. This gives Democrats an exceedingly rare opening to challenge for both offices, where in the past - other than Jim Cooper in a narrow loss in 2020 - they have nominated scrubs. And though it is a daunting challenge, part of DNC Chair Sherrod Brown's "Project 26" strategy is to take the battle to GOP strongholds and force Republicans to defend their record there.

For the challenge, they have recruited possibly their best fits for the state since Phil Bredesen and Jim Sasser towered over Tennessee politics. For the Senate race, Nashville-area US Rep. Jeff Yarbro is giving up his safe House seat to make a run against Fincher, planning a race focusing on Fincher's ethics issues, erratic personality and votes against industries important to Tennessee. For Governor - a mostly symbolic office at this point with the massive majorities the GOP holds in both chambers - Democrats have recruited retired country singer Tim McGraw, who has been building a campaign infrastructure for close to five years with an eye on this race. Neither starts as a favorite, though against the staunch conservative Ramsey, McGraw has a much better chance than Yarbro. In the House, meanwhile, we have a string of retirements - Jimmy Duncan, Bill Ketron and Steve Cohen are all retiring in addition to Yarbro, opening the door for Marsha Blackburn to stand as the dean of the delegation as Tennessee will welcome at least four new members.

What Will Likely Happen: Fincher and Ramsey will likely win, but there is an outside chance that the reeling TN Dems will score one massive upset. In the House, Duncan and Ketron can expect to be replaced by staunch conservatives, while the CBC should get a new member in Memphis as Cohen retires. Republicans will keep their stranglehold on the legislature.

Texas

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval won the Lone Star State, as expected, but in one of the biggest upsets in modern memory, moderate former Rep. Peggy Bartlett, aided by shadowy dark money groups, took down conservative icon Ted Cruz in one of the rare Republican primaries where a sitting office holder was taken down by a primary from his/her left. To the surprise of nobody, when rumors emerged that Sandoval and his allies helped orchestrate the takedown of Cruz, a nasty battle between conservatives and more establishment-flavored Republicans in Texas has started, especially as the right-wing elements of the party run the legislature and statewide offices now rather than the center-right business types who helped guide the state's growth and party's domination.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Democrats are hoping this could be their year in Texas. After years of marching further and further right, all while the inner suburbs diversify and the state's center of gravity shifted slightly left, Republicans might, at long last, be vulnerable in Texas. The "Blue Texas" initiative from last decade is long gone - instead, Democrats have a tiered strategy. The goal is 3 seats in the Texas Senate to effect a 16-15 split, and at minimum 10 seats in the House to cut slightly down on the GOP advantage there. The next goal is to target 5 suburban seats in the US House to grow the delegation, and then to challenge Senator Ken Paxton, under investigation for corruption, for his seat. At the statewide level, besides Paxton, Democrats are seeking a big-name challenger against Governor George P. Bush, who is not as vulnerable as Democrats are making him out to be, and then try to pick up one or two row offices.

Republicans, of course, scoff at these plans, but there are signs they are worried. Four row officers are retiring this fall - some to run for other offices - and Julian Castro came uncomfortably close to taking down Bush in what was otherwise a GOP wave year everywhere else. Castro is expected to challenge Paxton this time, so Bush may win by default, but Republicans aren't taking any chances. Bush is known to have an eye on a Presidential run in 2032 - or 2028 in the unlikely event that Sandoval chooses not to seek reelection - and his war chest is one of the biggest of any Governor in the country. Meanwhile, Lamar Smith is retiring and Republicans worry that the "inner five" - Joe Barton, Larry Gonzales Jim Murphy, Joe Straus and Pete Sessions - could all be vulnerable as well. There are also a number of other retirements, all in safe districts - for the Democrats, Lloyd Doggett, Henry Cuellar, Gene Green, Al Green and Sheila Lee Jackson are all stepping down after long services in Congress, while Filemon Vela, who reneged on a promise in 2022 to not seek anymore terms, is likely to leave as well. For Republicans, meanwhile, some very senior GOP figures in Kevin Brady, Ted Poe, Louie Gohmert, Randy Weber and Michael C. Burgess are all retiring or likely to retire. Though many of these men are staunch conservatives, their districts seem likely to move even more so in that direction.

What Will Likely Happen: Republicans need to take the "TexDem" challenge seriously - leadership members Marc Veasey and Joaquin Castro are dead-serious about the move and the DNC has learned its mistakes from the Battleground Texas debacle. With Castro (Julian) aiming for Senate rather than the Governorship, Bush likely gets his second term and can start plotting out the long-term post-Sandoval future of the GOP, of which he will be a major part. Down ballot, meanwhile, local Republicans fret that Barton and Sessions don't appreciate the threat from Democrats in their districts. Still, it is a long time until this election, and Democrats have not shown for decades that they can challenge in Texas. Republicans remain favored in most races until shown otherwise.

Utah

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval, to the surprise of absolutely zero people, blew out Heinrich in Utah. Jon Huntsman was easily reelected after seeing off a serious primary challenge by Mike Lee.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: No Senate or Gubernatorial races in the Beehive State, which leaves the US House races and state legislature - where Republicans should dominate across the board. Other than Rob Bishop's retirement, there is not much going on here - unless Democrats can find a miracle candidate in CD 4, where growth in the Salt Lake area from out of state has started pushing the district towards R+8 rather than its more daunting level.

What Will Likely Happen: Bishop gets replaced by another low-key Mormon conservative back-bencher and all other incumbents are reelected.

Vermont

What Happened Last Year: A major upset from the left, as Tim Ashe took down moderate Senator Pete Shumlin in the primary and was replaced by fellow liberal Kesha Ram. Heinrich won the quirky left-wing state with ease, as did popular moderate Republican Governor Phil Scott.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Scott is retiring after eight years, leaving this an obvious opportunity for a Democratic/Progressive pickup. The favored candidate for the rising Progressives appears to be Chris Pearson, who has suggested a Democratic/Progressive fusion ticket against Scott Milne, the likeliest Republican candidate.

What Will Likely Happen: Pearson is inaugurated in January of 2027 for his first two-year term. Scott may be the last Republican Governor in the Green Mountain State in a long, long time.

[KingSweden]

Previewing the 2025/26 Midterm Cycle - Part 10


Virginia

What Happened Last Year: Heinrich barely, barely carried the Old Dominion, with NoVA saving him at the last ballot drop. The big shocker of the night was Senator Tim Kaine's narrow win over former US Rep. Rick Morris, where the popular Senator underperformed Heinrich. Tag Greason took down US Rep. Jennifer Wexton in a rematch of their excruciatingly close matchups, and this time was no different - Greason won by all of 18 votes.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: More importantly, what does this fall look like? Mark Obenshain is running for Governor, leaving the Attorney General slot open, as Governor Mark Warner is once again hamstrung by Virginia's unique one-term limit. Democrats have found a good candidate in US Rep. Don McEachin (who will not be seeking another term in the House), who is aiming to be the second black Governor of Virginia. Obenshain is, of course, favored after twelve straight years of Democratic rule in the Old Dominion. Republicans are favored to carry all three statewide offices for the first time since 2009.

Looking ahead to next fall, McEachin and Don Beyer are both retiring for the Democrats, while Republicans expect all of their incumbents to seek another term. Tag Greason and Will Sessoms are most certainly top-tier targets for the DCCC, and some Republicans are increasingly worried about Rob Wittman being in the crosshairs as well. Though there is DCCC noise about taking on Chris Peace, the moderate Republican is well-liked in the right-leaning Richmond suburbs and should not have any trouble winning reelection. Senator Tom Perriello, meanwhile, would be favored even in a Republican-leaning environment - nobody from the delegation is going to give up their seat to take on the popular and well-funded Senator.

What Will Likely Happen: Obenshain wins this fall, giving Republicans the Governor's Mansion again. Next fall, meanwhile, Perriello will cruise to reelection while Greason and possibly Sessoms go down. Wittman and Peace will both likely be reelected, and the rest of the GOP delegation sweeps back to Congress. Staunch liberals will replace Beyer and McEachin.

Washington

What Happened Last Year: A massive upset as State Treasurer Steve Litzow took down Governor Dow Constantine to become the first Republican to win a Governor's race since 1980. Republicans, meanwhile, picked up two more House seats to cut the Democratic margin to 5-5, leaving Democrats in control of only Seattle and its innermost suburbs/counties. Democrats only narrowly kept control of the legislature.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: There are no Senate or Gubernatorial races this year, so Democrats are aiming to build up their legislative majorities, and that is where the state Democratic Party's focus will lie. There are a number of longtime Republicans retiring or vulnerable on this map that they are aiming for, including Mike Baumgartner, Andy Hill and Joe Fain. On the House map, meanwhile, Democrats are going to aim to snatch back WA-1 and WA-6, Democrats start favored. In WA-3 and WA-5 - home to House Majority Leader Cathy McMorris-Rodgers - Democrats have two "expand the map" targets. Though CMR starts heavily favored, Democrats like their chances with Spokane Mayor Ben Stuckart and demographic changes in the area over the last decade.

What Will Likely Happen: Democrats gain two House seats, and expand their legislative majorities slightly.

West Virginia

What Happened Last Year: A dominant performance by Sandoval, and two offices were traded as Evan Jenkins took Patrick Morrissey's Governor's Mansion and Morrissey was elected to Jenkins' Senate seat.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: The state has become such a staunch Republican stronghold in recent years that Democrats have no real chance against Senator Shelly Moore Capito, who is seeking a third term. Both Reps. Alex Mooney and Dan Hall are beyond safe.

What Will Likely Happen: Nothing. The reeling WV Democrats will maybe pick off a few legislators, but Mooney and Hall are too entrenched at this point and there is no Democrat who can realistically challenge the popular and fairly moderate Moore Capito.

Wisconsin

What Happened Last Year: For the first time in decades, Wisconsin elected a Republican President while electing a Democratic Senator (albeit narrowly in both cases), and it voted for Sandoval as the first GOP candidate to carry the Badger State since 1984.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Republicans can't rest on their laurels long, as unpopular Governor Scott Fitzgerald will face his predecessor, Chris Larson, in one of the most high-profile races next fall. The DCCC is targeting both Reps. Reid Ribble and Scott Krug, and feel good about their chances to take the Wisconsin Senate back as well. Republicans, long frustrated in WI-3, feel that the demographics of the region may be moving their region and think that Julie Lassa, recently under fire for ethical concerns, could be a rare target on the map.

What Will Likely Happen: Depending on the national mood, Fitzgerald is either doomed or narrowly favored. Democrats will need to overcome their turnout issues outside of Milwaukee and Madison to carry either of the northern districts, where they are underdogs. Julie Lassa will likely win if she doesn't choose to retire.

Wyoming

What Happened Last Year: Sandoval landslide win combined with a corresponding landslide win by Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso.

What Does Next Year Look Like?: Conservative Governor Cynthia Lummis is term-limited, and Republicans are starting to coalesce around Laramie County Sheriff Mark Tuxton (f), a relative moderate by Wyoming standards. Mike Enzi, meanwhile, shows no signs of slowing down at 82 after 30 years in the Senate.

What Will Likely Happen: Senator Enzi and Congresswoman Cynthia Cloud are easily reelected, while the young and well-liked Tuxton is elected Governor over whatever sacrificial lamb the Democrats put up.

[KingSweden]

June 2025: After weeks of silence and with government funding expiring on July 1st, Brian Sandoval quietly signs the budget sent to him by Congress, his first major defeat as President. House conservatives rejoice at their ability to finally pass the kind of austere budget they have dreamed of for years, but fail to pick up on Sandoval's under-the-radar recruitment of more moderate candidates for crucial House races. Democrats react angrily to the harsh budget, with protests in major cities including a massive march planned for July 3rd on the National Mall. Republican leaders scoff at the plans, with Kevin McCarthy opining, "If the people cared about these wasteful programs so much, they'd elect Democrats to Congress and the White House to continue them. We have the American people on our side. Liberals are a minority of the voters in this country." Sandoval visibly cringes when a 60 Minutes interviewer asks him about the comment and says, "I don't agree with Speaker McCarthy. We need to represent all Americans."

Paul Clement is passed fairly easily through committee to the full Senate, where he is passed just before the end of the month. Though no Democrat votes for him, there is no filibuster, and Democrats signal that since he'd be slightly more moderate than Clarence Thomas, they are not particularly bothered by his approval. The appointment of Clement becomes ever-more crucial to the GOP after another banner term for liberals in the Supreme Court, as the Court upholds ENDA laws as a national standard in Gerhart v. Alabama, upholds stringent firearm restrictions in Robbins v. San Francisco (but do not overturn Heller), and in a major move, strike down restrictions on public union collective bargaining (but leave it intact of private sector unions, which are not covered by the case), seen as a sign that the liberal majority may rule right-to-work as unconstitutional in the future, potentially overturning the entire Taft-Hartley Act. The panic button is hit on the right, with Brian Sandoval declaring in a press conference that afternoon that "this is six activist judges dictating economic policy to the entire country, based on their own prejudices and biases and not constitutional federalism."

June 2025 (continued): Rumors start to spread of loose nukes in Russia, though unsubstantiated. In coordination with a panicked Kazakhstan, overwhelmed with refugees, US Navy SEALs are deployed along with a large deployment of Rangers to the border of the Central Asian Republic. As Russian refugees continue to stream into Belarus and the Ukraine, both local governments ask for NATO help to make sure that the violence doesn't spill over. Navalny, in a speech to the EU Parliament in Brussels, suggests that "now is the time" to move into western Russia to create corridors for refugees and defeat rogue groups carrying out raids into border areas. Javid and Sandoval approve of such a measure, while Fillon, Renzi and Kraft suggest waiting. Chechen separatists murder 121 Russian soldiers after capturing a base in the middle of the night.

And now, for Sports: The Milwaukee Bucks win their third championship in four years in defeating the Dallas Mavericks in six games in the NBA Finals. Jabari Parker is once again Finals MVP in the same year that he won Scoring Champ and regular season MVP. In the NHL, meanwhile, after winning three straight series against the 3rd, 2nd and 1st seeded Eastern Conference representatives, with two of those series heading to seven games, the Philadelphia Flyers' miracle run is ended at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks in seven games, as the Canucks win their first-ever Stanley Cup at home. The parade attracts nearly a million revelers to downtown Vancouver two days later.

[KingSweden]

2025 FIFA Confederations Cup

Group A

United States (host)
France (2022 World Cup Champion)
Nigeria (2025 Cup of Nations Champion)
Uruguay (2023 Copa America Champion)

In the opening match in Philadelphia, Uruguay dominates the host United States 5-0, with four different players - Morales, Poyet (twice), Géronimo (aged 20), and Berto Cruz - finding the net for the South American power and humiliating the USMNT. In the other matchup, declining France's star Paul Blondin scores once to win 1-0 over Nigeria.

In the next match for the United States, the USMNT defeats Nigeria 2-1 in Los Angeles, with Jordan Morris and Chris Pulisic both scoring after going down 1-0 after Kevin Banango's early score. In the other match, Uruguay defeats France 1-0 thanks to a Morales score, guaranteeing Uruguay a slot in the next round.

A crucial matchup comes down then to France vs. USA in Chicago. In a good sign for the United States and their coach Jurgen Klopp, the USMNT goalie Zach Steffen manages to keep France out of the net the entire game and it ends on a 0-0 draw. France advances on goal differentials, but it is a huge hold for the USMNT to keep Les Bleus scoreless. In the other game, Morales scores twice and Géronimo scores once to power Uruguay to a 3-0 game. They have not conceded a goal the entire tournament.

Group B

Germany (2024 Euro Champion)
South Korea (2023 Asian Cup Champion)
Mexico (2023/25 Gold Cup Champion)
Tahiti (2024 OFC Nations Cup Champion)

Germany enters this group as the tournament favorite, and show why as they scalp Tahiti 8-0 in the opening match. (In the 2024 update, I named the clean-sheet goalie for Germany as Ter Stegen - that is incorrect. It should be Kevin Trapp). Germany's scorers: Julian Brandt (21', 44'), Billy Dreyfuss (30', 33'), Niklas Stark (50' pen), Max Meyer (64'), Julian Draxler (77') and finally Benny Klein (89'). In the other match, Mexico blanches South Korea 3-0, with scores by Tecatito, Pedro Aguirre and Pedro Olivares.

In the next match, Germany defeats South Korea 1-0, with Meyer scoring the lone goal. Mexico, meanwhile, blows the doors off of overmatched Tahiti 5-0, with scores by Tecatito (11'), Pedro Aguirre (44', 47'), Alejandro Diaz (56') and Diego Gama (80').

This leaves Germany and Mexico to face off for the top spot in the knockout round. Germany initially struggles to score on the Mexican defense, but eventually Brandt sneaks by defender Vic Guzman to score on Jesse Gonzalez at 75'. Four minutes later, another Mexican breakdown allows Mannschaft midfielder David Nieland, filling in for an injured Meyer, to get a header past Gonzalez. Germany wins 2-0. In the third-place playoff, South Korea earns its first goal of the tournament scoring at 60' with Park Seung-lee. Tahiti, in having conceded 14 goals and scoring zero, has the worst statistical result of any team in a Confederations Cup, ever.

Semifinal

Germany vs. France - New York

In a matchup of the two European powers, Germany dominates France, with Nieland scoring early on on a blown matchup by Kurt Zouma to blow past Alphonse Areola. Brandt and Dreyfuss each add a score in the second half to win 3-0. Germany has now scored 14 goals and conceded zero in the tournament.

Uruguay vs. Mexico - Dallas

Despite a considerable crowd advantage in favor of Mexico, the game is 0-0 until it goes to penalty kicks, where Uruguay wins 5-3, with veteran defender Gimenez getting the winning conversion.

Third Place Game

Mexico vs. France - Chicago

Mexico starts early with a score by Alejandro Diaz, and then buckles down with six saves on six shots, including two penalties, by Jesse Gonzalez to win 1-0 in a gritty, grim game in which a French player is sent off with a red card for kicking El Tri star Pedro Aguirre late in the match.

Final

In Los Angeles, where the World Cup final will be held in one years' time, Germany defeats Uruguay 1-0, with Uruguay goalie Guillermo de Amores conceding his first goal of the tournament to Dreyfuss at 67'. It marks Germany's first-ever win in the Confederations Cup and their second-straight major tournament. It is a huge way for manager Thomas Schneider to finish his first year as manager of Die Mannschaft. It is the second straight major tournament in which Kevin Trapp did not concede a single goal, and gives Germany an insane +34 goal differential when combining Euro '24 with Confederations '25. It is one of the most impressive stretches of play for any national side, ever.

Awards:

Golden Ball: Kevin Trapp (Germany)
Golden Glove: Kevin Trapp (Germany)
Golden Shoe: José Morales (Uruguay) (4 goals, tied with Billy Dreyfuss and Julian Brandt - Morales had two assists as opposed to one for each of the others).
Best Young Player: Géronimo (Uruguay) (aged 20)

[KingSweden]

July 2025: Angry protests in DC and other major cities over the 4th of July weekend over the "Austerity Budget" (or, as some particularly left-wing people call it, the "Anti-American Budget"). Dozens are arrested after bottles and other debris are thrown by an angry mob onto the White House lawn, and riot police teargas and break up hundreds at a mass rally in Houston. The hot summer doesn't help matters as it starts to reach the temperatures hit in the heat wave four years earlier. A major water riot breaks out in St. Louis after two grocery stores run out of bottled water and police try to break up the crowds. A poor jobs report early in the month and the tensions countrywide don't help, and the stock market declines 1,700 points in the last week of the month on both domestic and international concerns.

President Sandoval's other major domestic priority, TEORA, is punted to the fall session. Towards the end of the month, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito announces that he will retire as well, pending the approval of a successor. Sandoval has two early opportunities to shape the Court now, with Clement readying to be seated in early October. Conservatives, angry over the "summer of rage," begin to echo demands for someone even further to the right of Alito be appointed. Sandoval is interrupted by hecklers at a speech in native Las Vegas, and footage of security and Secret Service trying to escort the hecklers out of the conference room is broadcast on every network. A frustrated Sandoval, at the end of the month, concedes, "People are out of work and thirsty. They're getting fed up, and we need to listen to them."

July 2025 (continued): NATO begins to review Iran's nuclear programs to see if the 2015 deal has been adhered to in full at the ten-year point. Russia's collapse continues as the Central Asian Republic manages to repel Russian ground forces after sustained bombing from Moscow-loyal air units. Rage spreads in the West after two missiles from a Russian fighter go off target and hit the Lithuanian city of Narva inadvertently, killing 27 people, including 11 children. Russian interim leader Pyotr Novikov claims that it is a "Western false flag" and announces the mobilization of his loyal forces in central European Russia, including tactical nuclear weapons. The West and Russia have not been this close to war since Able Archer '83.

The unification of Korea on September 1st approaches with terrorist attacks in Seoul, including a bombing of the metro that kills 317 people. President Park gives a moving speech at the site of one of the attacks flanked by his generals, promising, "This transition will not be easy, it will not be painless, but it will happen and we will heal as one Korean people." Massive protests break out throughout central Venezuela against the coalition government of Henrique Capriles, demanding new elections. Capriles angrily claims that it is the work of "the wartime guerillas," threatening a return to the violence of the Venezuelan civil war.

And now, for Sports: Coming off of a Confederations Cup featuring both of their A-teams, both the USA and Mexico are bounced in the quarterfinals of the ensuing Gold Cup held in Canada. The final is played between surprise Canada and Panama, where Panama wins on penalty kicks after a 1-1 final.

[KingSweden]

Assessing Brian Sandoval's First Six Months in Office

The Economist

This was not how it was supposed to go. That was the off-the-record statement from an exasperated, frustrated and tired-sounding senior official in Brian Sandoval's White House. Six months in to the first term of the Republican President, Mr. Sandoval's approval rating has already sunk to 50% (from an inaugural high of 59%) and the GOP-run Congress' is even less popular. In his first six months, he has repealed a number of regulations, proposed a massive education overhaul, appointed a Supreme Court justice and managed the American military's response to the collapse of Russia. The mere fact that most Russian nuclear weapons seem to have stayed out of terrorist hands is a minor miracle for which he and his "rapid-response team" of advisers and NATO special forces units deserve immense credit.

Still, his first six months have not gone as planned. To many senior Sandoval advisers, the expectation was that he would enjoy deference from Congress, as is typical in Republican administrations, and that he would have a honeymoon from the public that elected him less than a year ago. A veteran of last year's campaign, also speaking off the record, commented, "I think the difficulty actually surprised the White House and they didn't know how to respond. They've been caught off guard and are still responding."

Try, first, the backlash to Mr. Sandoval's flagship program, the Tertiary Education Overhaul and Reform Act, known by the acronym TEORA. As is his style, Sandoval came up with conservative priorities - a major overhaul to the university system in the United States - and tailored it to include policy provisions that would appeal to liberals. This has been his style, ever since he was in Nevada - figure out what the desired result is, and figure out how to get there. It served Mr. Sandoval well in the Senate, where he was a rare Senator willing to get onboard with Democratic legislation and tug it rightward.

What Mr. Sandoval failed to realize, it appears, is that for much of his own Republican Party - a portion that overlaps with those Republicans who quite simply do not trust him, viewing him as a sellout establishment figure foisted upon them rather than a conservative savior - it doesn't matter what the end result is. The "how" matters as much as the "what" or "why." In conservative, rural districts, where talk radio is king even six years after the death of arch-conservative Rush Limbaugh and most consistent Republican voters probably do not know many Democrats, the notion that legislation should be designed to accommodate anyone, particularly liberals, is a foreign one. The politicians representing these voters have not done them, or Mr. Sandoval, many favors.

For years - since the beginning of the Obama/Clinton era - Republican officeholders have routinely promised to rollback much of the federal state, and the liberal legislation that formed it, if only they were handed the reigns of government. Much has been written about how the priorities of Congressional Republicans do not match up with a national campaign. That has been particularly obvious as Mr. Sandoval, who ran as an inoffensive moderate who suburban moderates could trust, has discovered. It earned him the Presidency, but now voters having spent a decade and a half that they should expect and demand a conservative revolution focused as much on process as on results are expecting to receive what they have promised.

This poses a variety of problems for Mr. Sandoval, who needs the trust and cooperation of his Congress to pass legislation. As is often the case in the modern GOP, it is a small but vocal minority that can match up with lockstep opposition from Democrats to sink legislation they find insufficiently conservative and hamstring their President. Through no fault of his own, Mr. Sandoval has now been twice embarrassed by this hard-right contingent of Republican officeholders. First, TEORA - which was meant to be passed within the first few months of the Presidency - is still languishing as a proposal rather than as legislation after conservative media hosts whipped up opposition to it for failing to abolish the Department of Education, much-loathed on the right.

The second embarrassment - and the more worrying one - saw Mr. Sandoval cave on the budget. Though his budget was a fairly doctrinaire affair, conservatives refused to pass it as insufficiently bold just two months after passing a milquetoast tax credit-heavy stimulus. In the midst of recession, they instead proposed a very austere document. After a Senate plan closely matching the White House's desires was sunk, Mr. Sandoval folded and signed the House plan rather than initiate inter-party warfare. The massive cuts, which come into effect essentially immediately rather than over time as Mr. Sandoval would prefer, have sparked outrage on the left and seen mass protests throughout the country.

Most worryingly, they fail to increase funding for the military at a time when Europe is closer to war than anytime since the fall of the Berlin Wall. This has set off alarm bells not only at the Pentagon but also among DC lobbyists who are stunned that the hawks - who traditionally win these kinds of battles in the GOP - were rebuked. Angry recriminations are firing through Washington, with White House sources angrily ripping into Congressional Republicans and rumors flying of White House-backed primary challenges to disagreeable incumbents.

All in all, the assessment of President Brian Sandoval's first six months is not a good one. Though many events have not been within his control, he needs to regroup and retake control of his Presidency soon - before the internecine warfare that has roiled the GOP since 2008 consumes the next three and a half years and makes America completely ungovernable.

[KingSweden]

August 2025: Lawmakers going home for the August recess are met with the twin angers of austerity that kicked in on July 1st and frustration over the hot summer and water crisis, particularly in Southwestern districts. A town hall for Rep. Jeff Dial gets particularly heated when a constituent throws an empty water bottle at his head. Though Mr. Dial is thankfully uninjured, the image goes viral. President Sandoval announces the Water Conservation Act, a piecemeal effort by various federal agencies and the military to conserve water. In states with ubiquitous smart meters and places like California that have adapted to drought conditions, the effects are not as pronounced. Seeing the angry town halls a la 2009 prompts Sandoval to huddle with top advisers like Ryan and Kashkari to discuss punting on tax reform - Kashkari advises he wait until after the midterms, hoping that a reduced but intact GOP majority serves as an endorsement of his half-Presidency, while Ryan encourages him to go big while he knows he has a friendly Congress. It is the first time that White House discussions seriously contemplate the notion that they might lose Congress within the year.

To replace Alito by the end of January, Sandoval settles on 44-year old Erin Murphy, a conservative legal scholar, former clerk for John Roberts, senior counsel for the RNC and the Sandoval '24 campaign, and Principal Deputy Solicitor General during the first six months of the Sandoval administration. Some Republicans express concern at the fact that Murphy has never been a judge and that she has expressed qualified support for abortion rights in previous statements and briefs, while Democrats are outraged that Sandoval would tap a former RNC official to sit on the Court. Heritage, led by Ted Cruz, start to circulate a petition suggesting Cruz be appointed instead and encouraging many Senators to block her nomination as being insufficiently conservative. Sandoval trumpets the fact that she is a conservative woman and angrily growls in an adversarial interview with Fox News' Megyn Kelly that, "I was a judge. I know what I'm talking about here."

(For the record - Erin Murphy is a name I got off of the list of SC clerks on Wikipedia. It seemed like a good choice. I have no idea who she is/partisan affiliations, I just didn't want to start drawing on the (fic) reservoir for SC justices quiet yet).

August 2025 (continued): A deer-in-headlights response to Germany's second major refugee crisis in a decade further tanks Hannelore Kraft's poll numbers, and after three years where the SPD's reelection as part of a leftish coalition seemed inevitable, the CDU/CSU looks to be in striking distance of government again. Poland mobilizes two army divisions to take up post at the border with Belarus, where over the course of a hot summer weekend the Lukashenko government falls after violent protests as refugees stream in, bloody raids by rogue paramilitaries kill dozens of civilians and basic services cannot be provided. An emergency NATO meeting coincides with the accidental downing of a Finnish military helicopter. Though Finland is non-NATO, the Nordic states go on high alert and Swedish planes are sortied. In Russia, the Novikov government steps up airstrikes against Chechen and Dagestani forces as ground troops are withdrawn further from the Caucasus, while Spetsnaz forces are able to secure 90% of Russian nuclear installations by the end of the month. After months of silence, Novikov begins communications with NATO about stemming the refugee crisis, though publicly he continues to declare that Russia's borders are "unbreakable."

China signs a landmark trade and military cooperation agreement with Korea, alarming Washington as unification draws closer. Secretary Corker huddles with senior Japanese and Filipino leaders in Tokyo to discuss the possibility of a required withdrawal by American troops from Korea depending on Park's alignment with Beijing. A massive drought causes two coups in Africa, one in Mali and one in Burkina Faso. Two Israeli planes are shot down over 'Syria' as the county's civil war heats up after a long lull. Violence in Kurdistan forces UEFA to start debating withdrawing Euro '28 from Turkey, to the loud protestations of Turkish leaders.

And now, for Sports: Dortmund clobbers Anderlecht 3-0 in the UEFA Super Cup.

[Türkisblau]

Great as always. Really happy to see this return.

[KingSweden]

German federal election, 2025

A landslide loss for the SPD! The Union parties anoint 44-year old Wilhelm Frank, the lightly experienced Minister-President of Lower Saxony, as their candidate for Chancellor after the party is deadlocked over who to take over in the post-von der Leyen era. Though Frank has only held elective office for seven years and has been dubiously popular in his home state, the CDU/CSU is handed two massive gifts - the infighting on the hard-right AfD and Pegida prevents them from crossing the necessary threshold of 5%. A senior SPD strategist makes one of the worst gaffes in German history when he remarks in relation to Frank, "A charismatic, inexperienced young man of the right running to be Chancellor before his 45th birthday? Where have we seen this before?" The Hitler comparison - completely unacceptable in Germany's political climate - sparks mass outrage and helps sink the SPD, already trailing. It does not help that the savvy, Berlin-outsider image of Hannelore Kraft from 2021 is no longer usable - in contrast to her easygoing and smart campaign from four years earlier, Kraft hides from the media and comes across as flippant and dismissive of concerns over a continuously deteriorating economy and European security situation.

The percentage results as follows:

CDU/CSU: 33%
SPD: 23%
Greens: 19%
FDP: 11%
Die Linke: 8%
Pegida: 3%
Afd: 3%

Wilhelm Frank becomes the youngest Chancellor since the 1930s in an increasingly grey country. He forms a three-party coalition with the Greens and FDP, despite only needing the Greens to get to a majority of seats.

[KingSweden]

Analysis of Germany's election:

The New York Times: It is never advisable in any Western democracy to ever compare your opponents to the Nazis and/or Hitler. Such rhetoric has, historically, emanated from the fringe and the most intensely partisan corners of the media. But in no country is it a bigger problem than in Germany, where any and all representations and mentions of Hitler come in hushed voices and must be carefully managed. So for Adam Donkel - a senior SDP strategist - to accidentally, in a poor (but superficially understandable) analogy, compare the relatively inoffensive yet charismatic center-right Chancellor candidate of the CDU, Willy Frank, to Adolf Hitler in the heat of an already ugly general election brawl was one of the greatest gaffes of all ages. It turned a narrow CDU lead into a massive one, and although the SDP recovered from its polling lows in the last week, it took a possible grand coalition and turned it into a decisive win for the CDU and its liberal partner, the FDP.

The Economist: German politics are typically a fairly dull affair, filled with low-wattage and uncharismatic politicians and a genial environment. Hannelore Kraft shook up this staidness four years ago when she ran a campaign as a Berlin outsider ready to shake up the status-quo after a decade and a half of Merkel's cautious, incremental politics. But after an indecisive four years in charge and an abysmal campaign where she lacked her previous charm and media savvy, it was clearly time for Kraft to go. Replacing her is a grossly inexperienced young Chancellor who is a terrific orator but has already earned a reputation in Germany as a handsome face, a stubborn conservative in an increasingly centrist party and an empty suit. Wilhelm Frank is hardly the second coming of Konrad Adenauer, yet was thrust into the role thanks to an ugly campaign by German standards which turned off many left-leaning voters enamored in 2021 by Mrs. Kraft and by a populace outraged by the flippant, casual comparison of a mainstream politician to Adolf Hitler by the SDP's Adam Donkel. Though Donkel is a convenient scapegoat, there are deeper reasons why Mrs. Kraft is headed back to Dusseldorf with her tail between her legs. She simply didn't deliver on what she promised German voters four years ago.

The Wall Street Journal: Besides the career-ending gaffe by Mr. Donkel regarding Willy Frank being roughly the same age as Hitler when the Nazi dictator came to power (and charismatic, to boot!), the election was a vicious affair in a country unused to such angry politics. Kraft was accused of economic malfeasance and she in turn referred to Mr. Frank as a "good-looking moron." Now comes the challenge in Germany to heal the rifts caused by the angry campaign and for Frank to put together his Cabinet... and hope his inexperience doesn't cause him the same problems it did for Hannelore Kraft.

[KingSweden]

September 2025: The economy loses 210,000 jobs, its biggest loss since the financial crisis, in August. Sandoval's approval rating is now 48% after less than a year on the job, and Congress' is 4%. Challengers to incumbent Republicans, both Democrats and in primaries, start to pop up in massive numbers and the number of retirements start to rise in conjunction. Erin Murphy attracts considerable skepticism when she is vetted by the Senate Judiciary Committee, not only from Democrats in lockstep opposition but many senior Republicans including Jeff Sessions, who expresses in an interview, "I'm not positive that Mrs. Murphy is totally qualified." The considerable opposition to her nomination ramps up from both sides, threatening President Sandoval with another high profile defeat in his first 12 months. Sandoval decides to punt on his tax overhaul until TEORA and Murphy are passed, and Thune quietly acknowledges that neither of the two items are likely to happen with the toxic environment in Washington.

September 2025 (continued): North and South Korea officially reunite as the Republic of Korea. Mass celebrations are held in Seoul and the DPRK flag is lowered for the last time in Pyongyang as part of a ceremony. Though there is still sporadic violence, the transition is essentially complete. Russian leader Novikov meets secretly with Navalny on a Polish air force base to discuss possible cooperation on solving the Russian Crisis. Caucasus regions are effectively Russian-free, with reports of brutal ethnic cleansing in several of the small republics. The Central Asian Republic signs an "association agreement" with Kazakhstan and its leaders agree to transfer any nuclear weapons within its borders to Kazakhstan to comply with international treaties and avoid reprisals from larger powers. Instability and violence in Belarus continues to spill over into Ukraine and Poland. Without Russian backing, Moldova's breakaway Transnistria finally collapses and disbands.

[KingSweden]

October 2025: Hoping to reignite conservative excitement, Sandoval appears on the campaign trail with Mark Obenshain and Tom Kean in Virginia and New Jersey. He also rolls out plans to vastly expand offshore oil and natural gas drilling, expanded drilling and mining on federal land, and to auction off by the year 2030 40% of the BLM's land in each state, and to auction off an additional 26% of the BLM's total land by 2035 irrespective of state as part of a massive privatization of government land in Western states, thus fulfilling a campaign promise. Though many conservatives, once again, feel that the plan is insufficiently bold, they likely lack the votes to block the measure, and many Western Democrats are onboard with the plan as well.

The month ends with a body blow to Sandoval, however, as TEORA is defeated in the House. Thune tables the proposal in the Senate and education reform heads back to the drawing board. It is the second major defeat for the President in his first year, and as the beltway media starts ratcheting up critiques of Erin Murphy, it starts to seem like it may not be the last.

October 2025 (continued): Chechen forces invade Ingushetia and Kalmykia announces its independence. An estimated 40,000 people have died in various conflicts in Russia in the last eighteen months, by a conservative estimate. Destabilizing violence begins to rock northern Pakistan and Afghanistan as a major drought causes a refugee crisis exploited by extremist groups. A major earthquake strikes Osaka, Japan on Halloween night, killing 427 people.

And now, for Sports: The Seattle Mariners win their first pennant by defeating the Detroit Tigers in seven games - in both Game 6 and Game 7, 27-year old star Kyle Walker scores walk-off home runs to win the game, with the one in Game 6 occurring on the road only one out away from elimination, giving him back-to-back two of the greatest postseason plays in MLB history. The Mariners go on to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals in six games to earn their first World Series championship.