Era of the New Majority

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Not looking good for the GOP, sadly. Keep up the awesome work, and I really enjoy your format.

[badgate]

Keep going!!

[Türkisblau]

I'm liking it so far, especially the bit about Martin Heinrich; I remembering volunteering for him briefly about 6 years ago, nice guy.

I was split between him and Heather Wilson for Senate as she is one of the few Republicans that I admire.

P.S. Think about Wilson for something future in a timeline

On that same note, do you know anything about how special elections in New Mexico work? (Not to give anything away, of course, but... well, IF Clinton/Heinrich were to win, does Martinez pick his successor?)

Thanks for reading, btw!

Well we certainly haven't had  one of those in a while (recall the longtime incumbency of Domenici and Bingaman) so I just looked it up and it appears that in NM the governor makes an appointment of their choosing and then they can run for reelection or be replaced in the next gen. election. I can't post links yet but the NCSL has a great page on the rules for this.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I'm liking it so far, especially the bit about Martin Heinrich; I remembering volunteering for him briefly about 6 years ago, nice guy.

I was split between him and Heather Wilson for Senate as she is one of the few Republicans that I admire.

P.S. Think about Wilson for something future in a timeline

On that same note, do you know anything about how special elections in New Mexico work? (Not to give anything away, of course, but... well, IF Clinton/Heinrich were to win, does Martinez pick his successor?)

Thanks for reading, btw!

Well we certainly haven't had  one of those in a while (recall the longtime incumbency of Domenici and Bingaman) so I just looked it up and it appears that NM is similar to NJ in that the Governor appoints a Senator of the same political party as the retiring Senator and a special election happens at a later date. I can't post links yet but the NCSL has a great page on the rules for this.

That's not true for NJ, remember Jeff Chiesa (R) replaced Frank Lautenberg (D) immediately after he died.

[Türkisblau]

I'm liking it so far, especially the bit about Martin Heinrich; I remembering volunteering for him briefly about 6 years ago, nice guy.

I was split between him and Heather Wilson for Senate as she is one of the few Republicans that I admire.

P.S. Think about Wilson for something future in a timeline

On that same note, do you know anything about how special elections in New Mexico work? (Not to give anything away, of course, but... well, IF Clinton/Heinrich were to win, does Martinez pick his successor?)

Thanks for reading, btw!

Well we certainly haven't had  one of those in a while (recall the longtime incumbency of Domenici and Bingaman) so I just looked it up and it appears that NM is similar to NJ in that the Governor appoints a Senator of the same political party as the retiring Senator and a special election happens at a later date. I can't post links yet but the NCSL has a great page on the rules for this.

That's not true for NJ, remember Jeff Chiesa (R) replaced Frank Lautenberg (D) immediately after he died.

Yeah, you're right. I misread the table of information and that's only true for a few states. ^{It's getting late}

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

West Virginia

Presidential: Despite some Democrats claiming that Clinton could make a race in West Virginia, an ancestrally Democratic stronghold, Cruz/Portman wins 60.3 percent of the vote there to Clinton's 38.2, nearly matching Mitt Romney's blowout 2012 win. Clinton did not campaign in WV, and Cruz only made two visits, with the state considered safe for the GOP by the Clinton team.

Governor: The reddening of West Virginia continues as Attorney General Patrick Morrissey defeats State Auditor Glen Gainer III 54-46. Morrissey becomes the first Republican Governor of the state since Cecil Underwood and for the first time, WV GOP has total, unified control of the state government. SOS Natalie Tennant, Ag Com Walt Helmick and State Treasurer John Perdue are all reelected to their offices, somewhat stemming the (Atlas) blue tide in the state. R+1.

WV State Senate: Republicans win an additional 3 seats in the State Senate, beefing up their total to 21-13.

WV State House: Republicans expand on their majorities from 2014, winning two more seats in the State House to 66-34.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 108
Cruz/Portman: 5

Kentucky

Presidential: Ideologically similar to West Virginia, Clinton nevertheless does campaign a few times in Kentucky with former Governor Steve Beshear and Senate candidate Adam Edelen, the State Auditor. Though there was talk early in the cycle of putting Kentucky in play, Clinton pulls out in early September. Cruz/Portman carries Kentucky 55/44, the best result for a Democrat since the 1990s.

KY Senate: Despite a spirited campaign from Adam Edelen, Rand Paul is reelected as Senator for Kentucky, 54-46.

KY-1: Former Marine and MoH recipient Dakota Meyer runs in the GOP primary against Ed Whitfield, attacking him from the left and stating a desire to "get things done." Meyer runs as a problem-solver, pledging to "work with anyone who wants to solve problems, like we do in the Marines" and to bring a "Marine's mentality" to DC. In a major upset, Meyer defeats Whitfield, a member of the 1994 freshman class, 52-48 in the primary. He goes on to easily win the general election.

KY State House: The state house is retained, once again, by Democrats, who this time in fact expand their majority to 57-43. The Democrats also pick up three Senate seats, cutting the GOP advantage to 23-15.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 108
Cruz/Portman: 13

[KingSweden]

I'm liking it so far, especially the bit about Martin Heinrich; I remembering volunteering for him briefly about 6 years ago, nice guy.

I was split between him and Heather Wilson for Senate as she is one of the few Republicans that I admire.

P.S. Think about Wilson for something future in a timeline

On that same note, do you know anything about how special elections in New Mexico work? (Not to give anything away, of course, but... well, IF Clinton/Heinrich were to win, does Martinez pick his successor?)

Thanks for reading, btw!

Well we certainly haven't had  one of those in a while (recall the longtime incumbency of Domenici and Bingaman) so I just looked it up and it appears that NM is similar to NJ in that the Governor appoints a Senator of the same political party as the retiring Senator and a special election happens at a later date. I can't post links yet but the NCSL has a great page on the rules for this.

That's not true for NJ, remember Jeff Chiesa (R) replaced Frank Lautenberg (D) immediately after he died.

Yeah, you're right. I misread the table of information and that's only true for a few states. ^{It's getting late}

I'll have to take a look at the NCSL site, thanks!

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Tennessee

Presidential: The state is mostly ignored by both candidates, regarded as safe by both camps. Cruz carries Tennessee's 11 electoral votes 57.4-41.5, with Clinton only once appearing on behalf of Jim Cooper in Nashville.

TN-4: Scott DesJarlais is once again primaried by a State Senator from his district, this time Murfreesboro's own Bill Ketron, best known for introducing bills to ban Sharia law in Tennessee. Ketron manages to dislodge DesJarlais from office this time, and is arguably more conservative than the Congressman he replaces.

TN Legislature: Republicans hold their 27-6 advantage in the State Senate and lose three seats in the State House to drop to a still-commanding 70-29 majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 108
Cruz/Portman: 24

Virginia

Presidential: The state remains uncalled for much of the night, with Cruz maintaining a lead in southern and western VA that is far too precarious for his team to feel comfortable. Strong turnout in Richmond and record turnout in NoVA results in a call for Clinton, and by the time the counting is over Clinton has a 54-44 advantage, a much wider disparity than expected. Clinton's strong performance is credited to strong turnout amongst minorities and affluent NoVA suburbanites who angrily remember Cruz's government shutdown. Many pundits are stunned that Clinton performed better in Virginia than in Pennsylvania. Terry McAuliffe's presence as Governor is over-stated as a reason for Clinton's strong performance.

VA Redistricting: After the court-ordered redistricting, the districts are redrawn and renumbered. A second majority-minority district is created by creating a Hampton Roads district containing Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News, Hampton and the adjacent peninsula. Per tradition, as this district contains Jamestown and Williamsburg, it is renumbered as the first district. Much of Chesapeake is instead included in VA-2 to make up for population loss, VA-4 is moved westwards and loops around northwards to take up parts of VA-7, which shifts northwest to make up in the old VA-7, while the old VA-1 and VA-3 are shifted into the rest of the old VA-7. The original VA-1 is renumbered as VA-7, with Rob Wittman remaining as the US Rep, and Randy Forbes retires rather than run against Scott Rigell. With these major changes, here are the occurrences in the VA districts as follows:

VA-1: In this now-Democratic district, State Senator Kenny Alexander is elected by a comfortable margin after Bobby Scott elects to retire rather than run here after 24 years in Congress, choosing instead to become the President of Old Dominion University. D+1.

VA-2: In his Pure Tossup district, Scott Rigell is reelected when Democrats fail to field a formidable challenger to him.

VA-3: With Bobby Scott drawn into the first and then retiring, this majority-minority district instead elects State Senator A. Donald McEachin to the House.

VA-4: Randy Forbes' home was moved into VA-2 and thus this seat came open. Delegate Rick Morris, a former JAG officer from the Sussex/Southampton area, is elected to the seat. The new district stretches from the North Carolina state line, past Richmond's western suburbs and exurbs all the way to western Prince William County, and is Lean R.

VA-5: Robert Hurt's district is made slightly more Democratic and faces a tough fight, only narrowly defeating Charlottesville Mayor Satyendra Huja by 1500 votes. Huja is supported in the race by former US Rep. Tom Perriello, who very nearly entered the race but decided at the last minute not to.

VA-6: Bob Goodlatte reelected soundly.

VA-7: In the new VA-7, which is similar to the old VA-1, Rob Wittman is easily reelected in his solidly Republican district.

VA-8: Don Beyer, in a somewhat modified district, is reelected in a landslide.

VA-9: Morgan Griffith is reelected unopposed.

VA-10: With this district now a lean Democratic district after redistricting, and the Clinton/McAuliffe team seeking to knock out the former Clinton investigator Barbara Comstock, a great deal of money is spent on her defeat. State Senator Jennifer Wexton enters the race and defeats Comstock 55-44, a surprisingly wide margin, on Clinton's NoVA coattails. D+1.

VA-11: Gerry Connolly is elected with nearly 70% of the vote.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 121
Cruz/Portman: 24

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

North Carolina

Presidential: Clinton campaigns furiously in North Carolina towards the end of the campaign, trying to buttress her leads elsewhere and push the Democratic candidates for Governor and Senator over the line. No state besides Ohio receives more campaign visits from both Clinton and Cruz, and the state comes down to the wire once again, narrowly going 51.2/48.2 for Clinton, the narrowest result in the country. North Carolina is not called until November 9th, at which point the world already knew Clinton had been elected President.

NC Governor: Pat McCrory faces down Attorney General Roy Cooper in the marquee race of the cycle. Cooper runs against McCrory and the legislature, calling the Governor a "rubber stamp, not a check, on the North Carolina House and Senate." Cooper runs as an agent of change with a detailed ten-point economic plan many doubt he can get passed through the conservative legislature, but he nevertheless wins by a surprisingly comfortable 52-43, with a Libertarian candidate taking 5% of the vote. D+1.

NC Row Officers: Former State Senator Don Davis is elected Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina, the first African-American statewide officeholder. State Senator Josh Stein is elected North Carolina Attorney General. Former US Rep. Heath Shuler is elected Treasurer of North Carolina.

NC Senate: As the national picture deteriorates for Republicans throughout September and October, Richard Burr emerges as a suddenly vulnerable incumbent as the Clinton campaign turns its attention towards fostering a potential Senate majority. Facing State Treasurer Janet Cowell, Burr lags in fundraising behind the disciplined Cowell operation and runs what is regarded as an unenergetic campaign. Though Burr is favored going into election night, Cowell stuns Burr, winning by only 4000 votes to keep the North Carolina tradition of ousting incumbent Senators alive and well. D+1.

NC House: No incumbents retire or are defeated.

NC Legislature: The Republicans lose two Senate seats to drop to a 32-18 advantage, while losing six seats in the House to go to a 68-52. Many of the successful Democrats who win are quite conservative in nature.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 24

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

South Carolina

Presidential: Cruz roughly matches Romney's performance, winning slightly less than a million votes but carrying the state 53.8-44.1 SC has some of the election's lowest turnout.

SC Senate: Tim Scott is easily reelected to a full term in his own right, facing almost no serious opposition besides a Columbia city councilman.

SC-6: Jim Clyburn retires. He is replaced by State Senator Joel Lourie, a white Columbia Democrat who wins the primary when it is split between two rural African-American candidates. South Carolina has an all-white delegation again for the first time since the early 1990s.

SC General Assembly: The Republican Senate majority expands thanks to low turnout, increasing to 30 to 16, while the House majority actually shrinks by one seat, to 77-47. Many longtime Democrats retire in the House, resulting in younger candidates rising to take their place.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 33

Georgia

Presidential: In Georgia's first year as an official, full-blown Presidential battleground, it receives the third-most visits of any candidate. Cruz's strong social conservatism is a big winner in Atlanta's very conservative suburbs, while Clinton and the Georgia Democrats register voters heavily and local progressive organizations use an influx of funding to help locals navigate voter ID laws to make sure they are registered to vote. Nevertheless, Georgia is an (Atlas) bluer tint of purple, going narrowly to Cruz 52-47. Democrats earn just shy of two million votes, their biggest raw vote total in Georgia history, but record turnout for Cruz in very conservative suburbs and exurbs cuts them short of their goal. If anything, the results reveal the state to be very polarized politically.

GA Senate: Johnny Isakson faces State Rep. Stacey Abrams. As is widely predicted, Isakson defeats her by a 54-44 margin, handily avoiding a runoff, though Abrams is able to improve upon the raw vote count and turnout numbers for Democrats from the disastrous election two years before.

GA House: No incumbents retire or are defeated. The entire delegation is returned for the 115th Congress.

GA General Assembly: In the Georgia House, Republicans lose a net of four seats to drop their majority to 116, while Democrats defeat the member of the Independent Party to get a net gain of 5, giving them a 64-seat minority. In the Georgia Senate, the Republican majority is narrowed to 37-19.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 49

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Alabama

Presidential: A thoroughly uncompetitive contest, despite some stray Clinton ads aired in Birmingham in late October because hey, why not? Cruz is a much more engaging figure to Alabama conservatives than McCain or Romney and so drives GOP turnout above the 1.3 million votes mark, while Democrats manage to turn out 800,000 voters again. Cruz wins 62-35, one of the biggest blowouts since the 1970s.

AL Senate: Mo Brooks challenges Richard Shelby, a 30-year incumbent, from the right. Brooks is embraced by much of the grass roots right and is a far more credible challenger than Chris McDaniel was to Thad Cochran. Shelby runs against Brooks' "war of whites" interview and paints himself as a "true Southern gentleman" as opposed to a "supremacist nut," and argues that Brooks is beholden to "a mouthpiece establishment outside of Alabama." While many are offended by Shelby's race-baiting campaign, it works - record black turnout occurs in the Republican (and open) primary, helping push Shelby over the 50 percent mark needed to avoid a runoff against Brooks and a few minor candidates. Brooks states angrily that "today Shelby was renominated to a sixth term as our Republican Senator by a bunch of Democrats," but does not pursue the legal challenges of McDaniel. Shelby easily cruises to victory against a low-level Democratic county official, winning with over 70% of the vote.

AL-5: With Brooks out, there is a six-way primary to replace him. State Senator Arthur Orr from Madison County wins the primary and the ensuing runoff and cruises to an easy general election win nearly uncontested against an underfunded Huntsville NASA engineer.

AL Legislature: No change in the composition of either chamber, all incumbents of both parties easily reelected.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 58

Mississippi

Presidential: With no statewide offices contested, this becomes the big-ticket race. Clinton never attempts to contest the election here, and Cruz wins easily, 55-44.

MS-1: With health problems carrying over from the prior term, three-term Congressman Alan Nunnelee announces his intention to retire at the end of the 115th Congress. In a wild Republican primary, the surprise winner is 36-year old State Rep Brad Mayo of Oxford, who wins a runoff against former Democrat and current GOP State Senator Nickey Browning of Pontotoc. Mayo defeats Democratic State Senator Bill Stone 53-46 in the general election.

All other house incumbents are easily reelected without significant primary or general election opposition.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 64

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Ohio

Presidential: Along with NC, OH is the most-visited state in the Union, with Cruz spending four straight days there at the end of the campaign and Clinton drawing large rallies across the state. Polling shows the two candidates neck-and-neck and Cruz stages his final campaign rally there before returning to Texas on election night. Early returns show decent numbers for Clinton in Democratic hubs like Cleveland, Youngstown, Columbus and Toledo, while Cruz does not see the kinds of numbers he needs in SW Ohio, where he focused his campaign on the dying coal industry. From a GOP perspective, Ohio is called brutally early for Democrats, and Hillary winds up carrying the state 52-46, a yawning margin for Cruz to lose the quintessential swing state by, especially with a home-state Senator on his ticket.

OH Senate: With Portman out, US Rep. Steve Stivers defeats three State Senators in the primary to advance to face fellow US Rep. Tim Ryan, for whom the Democratic field is cleared. The race is tight, with Portman appearing often to campaign for Stivers. Some in the Cruz camp criticize Portman for focusing more on electing a GOP successor than President, which Portman's handlers snipe back is nonsense. Stivers leads in the early returns, but as votes from NE and central Ohio trickle in, Ryan edges into the lead. He winds up winning by 42,000 votes, 50.1-49.8. D+1.

OH-9: Marcy Kaptur retires after 17 terms in Congress. Former State Rep. Mat Szollosi jumps into the race and wins easily over nominal Republican opposition, with the field largely cleared on his behalf.

OH-10: State Rep. and Ohio House Democratic leader Fred Strahorn jumps into the race to take on Mike Turner, in the most D-friendly GOP district in Ohio. Strahorn runs one of the best campaigns of the cycle as a centrist reformer and defeats Turner by a 2,100 vote margin, unseating the 7-term incumbent. D+1.

OH-13: With Tim Ryan stepping down to run for Senate, he is replaced by State Rep. Zack Milkovich, who defeats a Youngstown-area car dealer with nearly 60% of the vote.

OH-14: David Joyce, at one time regarded as potentially vulnerable, cruises to reelection over a gaffe-prone Democratic candidate who is cut off by the Ohio Democratic Party, working towards a disciplined return to prominence.

OH-15: With Steve Stivers retiring to run for Senate, Rep. Stephanie Kunze faces Senator Jim Hughes for the seat. In a narrow primary election, Hughes defeats Kunze and faces Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman in the fall. In a surprisingly narrow contest, Hughes only beats Coleman by 6,000 votes, but holds the seat for the GOP.

OH-16: Betty Sutton returns to face US Rep. Jim Renacci and in a much more favorable climate in Ohio manages to narrowly defeat him despite a late pour of money on his behalf from the MSP, NRCC and Chamber of Commerce. D+1.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 154
Cruz/Portman: 64

[KingSweden]

United State elections, 2016

Indiana

Presidential: Despite nominal Democratic investment, this state is not targeted to the same extent as North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri or Arizona. Despite some appearances in Indianapolis and South Bend, Clinton accepts by the last week of the campaign that Indiana is not happening. Still, Cruz only narrowly wins the state, carrying it 51.6-48.3.

IN Senate: Dan Coats retires, as is expected, after only one term. This sets up a primary between US Reps. Marlin Stutzman and Todd Young after Attorney General Greg Zoeller declines to run. Though both are fairly conservative, Stutzman seizes the Tea Party mantle while Young runs as a pro-business, center-right candidate intent on reminding everyone of Stutzman's "we don't know what that is" gaffe during the 2013 shutdown. Endorsements and outside spending line up behind the two accordingly. The primary becomes ugly, with increasingly personal attacks flying between the two camps, and there is an altercation between rival supporters at a Young campaign event. Young winds up winning the primary 49-46, seen as a rebuke to Mike Pence, who supported Stutzman.

On the Democratic side, Evan Bayh declines to run, and Brad Ellsworth decides to seek the Governor's office instead. Pete Visclosky, the dean of the Indiana delegation, decides to jump in instead, viewing a Senate term as the "capstone" of his career, promising to only serve one term if elected. Young campaigns against Visclosky as a "Gary liberal" and a "rubber stamp for the Obama-Clinton agenda." Despite an investment by the DSCC, Visclosky loses in a surprisingly narrow 52-48 race.

IN-Governor: Brad Ellsworth challenges Mike Pence. Though leading comfortably in the summer, the decline of the GOP ticket nationwide tightens the race, and on election night Ellsworth is ahead for much of the count until Pence narrowly edges into the lead on the second day of counting. Ellsworth demands a recount when the tally shows Pence only 1,100 votes ahead of him. After a recount, Ellsworth concedes when Pence's lead shrinks slightly, but not enough to allow him to become Governor. It is the second consecutive tight race for Mike Pence.

IN-1: With Visclosky's retirement, former State Attorney General and current Gary Mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is elected to replace him, defeating a Republican car dealership owner with over 60% of the vote.

IN-2: In the surprise race of the season, Jackie Walorski attracts the DCCC's attention as they try to recruit South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg into the race, but he remains adamant that he will serve out his second term in office - with rumors flying that his eye is on the 2020 Governor's race. Instead, the DCCC recruits John Broden, a State Senator from South Bend, to run instead. While Walorski's race is Lean R for most of the cycle, Broden's energetic campaign and support from Joe Donnelly and Bayh pushes it into Tossup territory despite Cruz's relative strength atop the ticket. Clinton, Ellsworth and Visclosky all carry the district narrowly, and Broden rides their coattails to win 50.3-49.2 over Walorski. D+1.

IN-3: With Stutzman retiring to run for Senate, Democrats under the "Mayor Majority" program recruit Fort Wayne Mayor Tom Henry to run for the seat in this conservative district. A crowded six-way GOP primary produces State Senator Dennis Kruse, who runs an anemic campaign for most of the summer and only narrowly defeats Henry, winning by a mere 2,000 votes in a race he should have taken in a blowout.

IN-9: With Young retiring to run for Senate, Republicans run Jeffersonville Mayor Mike Moore against State Rep. Steve Stemler. Moore is elected in a landslide.

Indiana Row Officers: Greg Zoeller retires as Attorney General and is replaced, in an upset, by Marion County Prosecutor Terry Curry, a Democrat, who defeats Republican State Senator Mike Delph.

Indiana General Assembly: Democrats narrow the Republican supermajority in the State Senate, taking four seats to put the GOP control at 34-16, and slash the House supermajority from 70-30 to 64-36. Along with the Attorney General upset and knocking off Jackie Walorski, Indiana Democrats have their best performances in decades.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 154
Cruz/Portman: 75

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Michigan

Presidential: Cruz campaigns in the Detroit suburbs early in the campaign, touching on the theme of "what happened to Detroit will happen to America under a third Obama term." Rand Paul criticizes Cruz for not going into Detroit and tying to reach out to the "people who have actually been affected." The public row ignores Clinton's comfortable leads in the state, as she dispatches surrogates to rally support statewide. Cruz's numbers in the state start to sink beneath the typical Republican floor. Clinton carries the state 57-42, an unexpectedly wide margin, buoyed by strong support in both urban and suburban SE Michigan.

MI-1: As promised, Dan Benishek retires after three terms in Congress. For the now-open seat, Democrats run 2014 nominee Jerry Cannon, who takes a similar pledge as Benishek's and promises to only serve three terms "if elected and by the grace of God and the voters of the 1st District, reelected." Cannon faces Republican Peter Pettalia, the Majority Caucus Chair in the Michigan House. In a tight, narrow election, Cannon defeats Pettalia 54-45. D+1.

MI-3: Establishment Republicans try once again to oust Justin Amash, this time targeting him with Grand Rapids Mayor George Heartwell. Amash crushes Heartwell in the primary, angrily calls out GOP leaders for their continued attempts to drive him out of office, and wins handily in the general.

MI-6: Fred Upton, considered the most vulnerable Republican in Michigan, faces Democrat Sean McCann. Despite heavy spending against Upton by the DCCC, Upton wins 54-45 against McCann, who runs a troubled and weak campaign. Mark Schauer was recruited briefly to run against Upton, but declined when McCann entered the race, not wanting to cause a contested primary.

MI-7: Tim Walberg is targeted by Washtenaw County Prosecutor Brian Mackie, who, with Clinton carrying the Detroit suburbs by wide margins, defeats the veteran Congressman 51-47 in a tight race that features a well-funded independent. D+1.

MI-8: Democrats identify freshman Republican Mike Bishop as a top target in 2016, recruiting former Gubernatorial candidate Virg Bernero to run. Bernero defeats Ingham County Commissioner Todd Tennis in the primary and runs up a massive margin in greater Lansing to defeat Bishop by a narrow 1,700 vote margin. D+1.

MI-9: Sander Levin is reelected to become the Dean of the Michigan delegation.

MI-11: David Trott faces Novi police officer and former Marine Jason Tucker (fictional person). In a tight race, Trott is defeated by Tucker, who wins 45-38-10, with former US Rep. Kerry Bentivolio running as an independent in a three-way race. D+1.

MI-13: John Conyers suffers a stroke in early 2016 and is incapacitated, leading to his retirement from Congress, the second cycle in a row in which the Dean of the House happens to be from Michigan and ends his career. Detroit's Tupac Hunter defeats four other Democrats in the primary, which is tantamount to election in the heavily-Democratic district. In his general election night victory address, Hunter brings the wheelchair-bound Conyers onto stage and thanks him for his 52 years of service in Congress.

Michigan Legislature: The Michigan State House goes Democratic! With several suburban Republicans term limited and Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer coordinating with state party officials to elect strong candidates, the Michigan State House sees a ten-seat swing, with Democrats now holding a tenuous 57-53 majority. Tim Greimel, in his final term, is made Speaker of the House.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 170
Cruz/Portman: 75

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Illinois

Presidential: Returning to the state where she grew up, Hillary Clinton focuses her campaign on leveraging the Cook County machine while trying to make inroads in the collar counties. She manages to defeat Cruz in every Chicagoland county, and with President Obama campaigning in the state on her behalf, drives up the Cook numbers. She matches Obama's 2012 raw vote total of 3.1 million, while Cruz fails to match Romney's total vote. Hillary wins 58-39, besting Obama's '12 margin but falling short of his massive '08 margin.

IL Senate: The premier race of the cycle outside of Pennsylvania pits Mark Kirk against Cheri Bustos, who emerges from the Democratic primary (where she defeats Rep. Mike Quigley). Bustos campaigns heavily in the collar counties and her western IL district, where she is trying to keep down Kirk's margins. With Kirk not hitting the numbers he needs to in downstate Illinois, Bustos wins 52-47, a narrow but decisive win over Kirk. D+1 (Tipping Point! Democrats have won control of the Senate).

IL-5: With Quigley retiring to run for Senate, he is replaced after a primary by Anita Alvarez, the Cook County State's Attorney. Alvarez is easily elected in the fall.

IL-6: After a primary challenge to Peter Roskam fizzles out in early February, Democrats triage their candidate here and Roskam stampedes to an easy reelection.

IL-7: Danny Davis retires after twenty years in Congress and is replaced after a Democratic primary by 17th Ward Alderman Latasha Thomas.

IL-10: Brad Schneider returns to Congress after defeating, in their third matchup, Congressman Bob Dold 54-45. D+1.

IL-12: Illinois Senate Majority Leader James Clayborne, Jr. challenges Mike Bost in the general election. Despite leading in polls for much of the year, the polls tighten to a pure tossup by the end of the season. Clayborne narrowly wins by only 1,200 votes. D+1.

IL-13: For the third cycle in a row, Democrats attempt to take out Rodney Davis, and this is not "third time's the charm." Davis wins 53-46 over State Rep. Sue Scherer to hold the seat.

IL-16: After staving off a primary challenge from a Rockford tire company owner, Adam Kinzinger has a rant on national television in September where he criticizes Ted Cruz and says, "This idea in the party that we all have to compete for who can be the most right wing is nuts. We're not going to win Illinois doing that, or New York, or California, or Pennsylvania. Big states we leave on the table because we can't offend the sensitivities of a handful of voters. That's why we have shutdowns, and wild primaries, and litmus tests, and keyed votes. It's crazy, and the American people know it's crazy!" Kinzinger is easily reelected in the fall over Litesa Wallace.

IL-17: Cheri Bustos, who was elected to the Senate, is replaced by East Moline's Mike Jacobs, who defeats former Rep. Bobby Schilling.

Illinois Legislature: In a reversal from the general trend nationwide, Illinois Democrats actually lose seats in the Illinois House, dropping three seats to fall to 68-50, losing their supermajority. In the Senate, Democrats gain two seats to hold a 41-18 majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 190
Cruz/Portman: 75

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Louisiana

Presidential: The old Clinton magic does not strike again in the Pelican State - Cruz wins 56-42, a decrease from the margins attained by both McCain and Romney. Neither campaign spends much time in the state.

LA Senate: After winning the Governorship, David Vitter appointed former Governor Buddy Roemer as a placeholder Senator to serve out the rest of his term. With an open seat, Charles Boustany and Jay Dardenne enter the race for the GOP while Karen Carter Peterson clears the field for Democrats. In the jungle primary, Boustany and Peterson emerge to face each other. Peterson surprises pundits with her strong performance in the runoff, but Boustany is elected 53-47 in the lower-turnout runoff.

LA-3: With Boustany retiring to seek the Senate seat, the jungle primary features State Senator Fred Mills (R) and Lake Charles Mayor Randy Roach (D) and a few minor candidates. Mills wins the runoff handily.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 190
Cruz/Portman: 83

[Türkisblau]

Loving the rate at which this is being updated. Can't wait for more!

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Arkansas

Presidential: Though Bill Clinton campaigns in Little Rock a few times, the affinity the state once felt for him and Hillary is not enough to prevent Cruz from winning the state, though he carries it with a substantially smaller margin than McCain, Romney or Bush, only winning 52-47. The outcome does not bode well for him in less conservative states, though the Cruz camp chalks it up to the "semi-home state" effect for the Clintons.

AR Senate: When Mike Beebe declines to enter the race, John Boozman cruises to reelection, 67-31, against State Senator Keith Ingram.

AR House: All four incumbents are easily reelected.

Arkansas General Assembly: Republicans expand their majorities in both Houses.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 190
Cruz/Portman: 89

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Iowa

Presidential: Despite talk that Cruz can flip the state, Iowa's Democratic lean comes through again. Hillary wins 52-47, belying Iowa's close partisan split.

IA Senate: Ticket splitting extravaganza in Iowa as Chuck Grassley rolls State Senator Pam Jochum with a 56-40 margin, with a Paulite libertarian taking a small percentage of the vote. Grassley carries all four CD's, while Hillary carries three and Democrats pick up two (see more below). Grassley pledges in his victory speech, "thank you for helping me win my last campaign."

IA-1: Freshman Congressman (and potential loan shark) Rod Blum faces Anesa Kajtazovic, a 30-year old former state representative who defeated Mary Vernon in the primary for the right to face Blum. In the Democratic-leaning district, and with the energy of the DCCC behind her, Kajtazovic crushes Blum for an easy pickup. D+1.

IA-3: David Young is challenged by former Governor Chet Culver in this coin-toss district which he only won the cycle before when the broadly popular Tom Latham retired. Though the race is tight, with a narrow Young advantage heading into election day, Hillary's top-ticket performance narrowly pushes Culver over the edge 51-49.

Neither David Loebsack nor Steve King experience or see any significant challenge.

Iowa Legislature: Democrats slice the GOP advantage from 57-43 to 51-49, with moderate GOP members holding the balance of power over their party's Steve King-backed conservative wing.

Clinton/Heinrich: 196
Cruz/Portman: 89

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Not looking good for Cruz Loving the amount of detail going into this though, keep up the good work!

[Adam Griffin]

[KingSweden]

Thank you for doing the so-far map... sooner or later I'm going to figure out how to make one of these myself.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Thank you for doing the so-far map... sooner or later I'm going to figure out how to make one of these myself.

Here's where you go to make maps

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Wisconsin

Presidential: Republicans pour tons of resources into Wisconsin, hoping Scott Walker's infrastructure and a newly-passed voter ID law help swing the state in their direction. Clinton campaigns here during the spring and with favorable polling largely pulls out by mid-October. The GOP falls short in Wisconsin once again, with Clinton winning 53.7% of the vote to Cruz's 45.5, a worse result than Romney in 2012 and well short of the close-misses of 2000 and 2004. Without Wisconsin, the path to 270 becomes nearly impossible for the Cruz camp.

WI Senate: Ron Johnson, the most endangered Senator in the country, is unable to overcome the nationwide D wave. US Rep. Ron Kind defeats Johnson 56-40, with a Libertarian candidate taking nearly four percent of the vote. D+1.

WI-1: Despite his district having a moderately D-friendly PVI considering the national climate, Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan is buoyed by heavy outside spending from the CoC and Crossroads to easily earn a 9th term in Congress even as Hillary Clinton carries the 1st CD 52-47 and Kind carries it 54-45.

WI-3: Kind is replaced by State Senator Julie Lassa, who defeats State Senator Kathleen Vinehout and then cruises in the general election against a La Crosse businessman. (Lassa once lived in the 7th, but her home in Portage County was moved to the 3rd in redistricting).

WI-6: Glenn Grothman proves too controversial even for his own district. After surviving a wide-open primary, Grothman is narrowly defeated by only 700 votes by Democratic State Rep. Gordon Hintz of Oshkosh. D+1, but Hintz, in winning a district not held by a Democrat for 50 years, is immediately on Roll Call's 2018 Most Vulnerable House Members.

WI-7: Sean Duffy finally attracts a top-tier challenger in State Rep. Nick Milroy of Superior, who runs at Duffy from the center, accusing him of standing against "Wisconsin families" and hits his votes against "consumer protections and safety." Milroy also pledges to only serve three terms, noting that Duffy is seeking a fourth term. Despite Duffy trying to emphasize his moderate credentials, Milroy edges him 52-47 on the strength of Clinton's coattails in the 7th, which she carries, and Ted Cruz's weakness in the north relative to the Milwaukee suburbs. D+1.

Wisconsin Legislature: No change in the Wisconsin State Senate, where Republicans maintain their 19-14 advantage. State Rep. Katrina Shankland is elected in a special election in March to fill the seat of Lassa. In the State Assembly, Democrats pick up seven seats to slash the Republican advantage to 56-43.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 206
Cruz/Portman: 89

[rpryor03]

1 critique: Ryan's district has a PVI of R+3. Even when Obama won the district in 2008, he won with over 64% of the vote that year.