Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Virginia

Presidential: Strong turnout once again powers Clinton to a win in Virginia, with Pence's lead early in the night so narrow that there is barely any way he could realistically win. Clinton takes Virginia 54-43, narrowly outperforming her Pennsylvania MOV once again.

VA Sen: Mark Warner, seen as tired of being in a bickering legislative body and never achieving his Presidential dreams, retires from the Senate after two terms, with pundits seeing him as keeping an eye on 2021 in his home state. Democrats quickly coalesce around Lieutenant Governor Tom Perriello, who defeats State Senator and former Attorney General nominee Chap Peterson for the Democratic nomination. Perriello faces State Senator Bryce Reeves, the Republican minority whip, and defeats him 52-44-4 in a three-way race with Virginia's favorite libertarian, Robert Sarvis. D hold.

VA-2: Ralph Northam pledges to continue his work at the VA rather than challenge Will Sessoms, but Lynwood Lewis agrees to give it a try this time. Lewis falls painfully short of taking the seat, losing by only 300 votes to the popular and moderate Sessoms. R hold.

VA-4: After surviving a bruising primary, Rick Morris is easily reelected in the general election over a Sussex County car dealer by a surprisingly wide margin, belying his relative popularity in his geographically diffuse district.

VA-5: Creigh Deeds declines to take on Robert Hurt, surprising many who thought this was an ideal pickup opportunity. It is later revealed that the DCCC was concerned about donor support to the conservative-leaning Deeds, and thus they essentially cede this seat to Hurt, who easily dispatches a Charlottesville-area dentist.

VA-10: Delegate Tag Greason challenges Jennifer Wexton in this swing district, which despite being much friendlier to Democrats after redistricting is still not safe. Wexton runs a savvy, competent campaign but Greason still tacks a moderate profile to appeal to Loudoun's suburban voters. Wexton, despite Clinton's coattails, is reelected only narrowly, partially due to her long Senate speculation before finally declaring that she would seek reelection being seen as hurting her.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 123
Pence/Rubio: 24

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

North Carolina

Presidential: NC continues to hold its position as America's new premier swing state, with both campaigns once again committing immense resources to it. Pence makes it part of his "bulwark" strategy of taking every Romney state plus Ohio, Florida and Colorado, spending almost all of October in only those three states (Ohio due to his presence as the governor of the neighboring Indiana, Florida because Rubio is on the ticket, and Colorado because of Clinton's poor fit there and the popular local Governor Walker Stapleton). The RNC pours almost $100 million into North Carolina alone to buttress Pence and Thom Tillis (more on that below) and defeat Roy Cooper as North Carolina goes down to the wire.

On election night, turnout is higher in NC than in 2016. Both candidates exchange leads in the state throughout the night, a bad omen for Pence and co. In the end, with 96% of precincts reporting late in the night after the result has already been called nationwide, Clinton is called the winner with 49.5 percent of the vote to Pence's 47.2, with third-party candidates barely taking up the rest.

NC-Gov: After a contentious four years of battle with the conservative legislature, Roy Cooper seeks reelection with moderate approval ratings in the polarized state. He is challenged by US Rep. Mark Meadows, who is seen as hoping to use the Governor's office and his conservative grassroots credentials as a springboard for 2024 or 2028. Democrats see this race as crucial to prevent another gerrymandered map, while Republicans view a retaking of the Governor's mansion as crucial to maintain their foothold in a state trending away from them at a steady pace. The race costs well over a hundred million discounting RNC investments there, with the RGA and outside groups flocking to Meadows while Cooper spends his massive warchest on turnout in coordination with the Clinton and Foxx campaigns (more on that below). Meadows lags Cooper despite the massive investment due to his very conservative nature dogging him, unlike the more moderate McCrory, and Cooper defeats him 51-47 in a narrower result to earn his second term. D hold.

NC Sen: America's most vulnerable Senator, Thom Tillis, faces an onslaught of outside money for almost three years aimed at cutting into his approval numbers. Kay Hagan passes on seeking her seat again and Democrats are able to recruit former Transportation Secretary and Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, a popular figure who despite being close to the moderately popular Clinton is seen as a competent figure against the increasingly unpopular Tillis. Foxx coordinates heavily with Clinton and Cooper to become the first black Democrat elected statewide from a Southern state in history, though he focuses less on that historic possibility and instead emphasizes his knowledge of transportation issues, his ties to the Charlotte region, and his pledge to only serve two terms if elected. Tillis finds himself out of sorts having to run a defensive campaign and struggles to both attract the kind of transplant suburbanites he needs to win and the conservatives who make up his base. Foxx wins with the widest margin, in a surprise to many, of any of the three top-ballot statewide Democrats, taking 51-45 with a third-party candidate atrophying some votes from Tillis to become the first black Democrat elected statewide in the South in history, and to Jesse Helms' old Senate seat no less. D+1, and the Senate is now tied 50-50 with the VP-elect serving as tiebreaker. NC now has two Democratic Senators for the first time in close to 50 years.

NC Row Officers: Lt. Gov. Don Davis, AG Josh Stein and Treasurer Heath Shuler are all reelected soundly in the best year for North Carolina Democrats in a long time.

NC-3: Walter Jones calls it a career, retiring after 26 years in Congress. Democrats run State Senator Angela Bryant in a hope to capitalize on the retirement, but 33-year old Afghanistan veteran and local brewery owner Chris Colton (fic) wins the Republican primary and defeats Bryant by a comfortable 58-40 margin. R hold.

NC-11: With Meadows retiring to seek the Governorship, he is replaced by 44-year old State Senator Ralph Hise of Spruce Pine, who wins with almost 60% of the vote after Democrats effectively cede the district. R hold.

All other incumbents stay in office and are easily reelected.

NC Legislature: Democrats pick up one more Senate seat to cut the GOP margin to 31-19, and pick up one seat in the House to cut the margin to 68-52.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 138
Pence/Rubio: 24

[Free Bird]

BIAS!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

BIAS!

You're kidding, right?

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

South Carolina

Presidential: Uncontested by Clinton, Pence actually improves on Cruz's MOV despite winning fewer raw votes, thanks largely to Wayne Allyn Root's investments in the South. Pence wins 55-41 over Clinton, one of the worst margins for a Democrat in SC in history. This is one state in the South that is most definitely not trending D.

SC Senate: Jeff Duncan bites the bullet and challenges Lindsey Graham, who is seeking a fourth term in office. Though Duncan rallies many conservative grassroots to his side and boxes out any other challengers, Graham's investments in the state and his nearly thirty years atop the ballot keep him competitive, and in one of the most competitive primaries in the country Graham wins 52-48 over Duncan and then cruises to a landslide reelection in November, winning well over 60% of the vote as Democrats choose to invest elsewhere.

SC-2: Joe Wilson retires after nearly two decades in Congress. His son, former Attorney General and failed gubernatorial candidate Alan Wilson, clears the primary field and is easily elected to succeed his father.

SC-3: Duncan is replaced by State Senator Kevin Bryant, who is even more conservative than the man he is replacing and a self-identified Paulite.

SC-4: Trey Gowdy, describing himself as frustrated after a decade in a polarized, factious Congress, decides to retire after five terms, with many suspecting that he is angling at a judgeship or US Attorney post in the event of a Mike Pence victory. State Senator Lee Bright emerges out of a wide-open primary to replace Gowdy and move the ideological center of SC's delegation even further to the right.

SC Legislature: The Senate stays 30-16 GOP, while Republicans take one seat in the House back to shift their margin to 76-48.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 138
Pence/Rubio: 33

Georgia

Presidential: Clinton once again makes a major play for Georgia, which Pence ignores under the assumption that it is still out of reach for Democrats. He is proven right as despite high turnout powering Clinton to over two million votes, the state's narrow GOP lean allows him to win by 50-47 (two points narrower than Cruz's victory) margin, with 3rd party candidates taking the rest of the vote.

GA Senate: Michelle Nunn defeats Kasim Reed in the primary - for now ending Reed's immediate political career - to earn a rematch with David Perdue. Despite the Clinton campaign's historic investment in this state, Perdue and Nunn are forced into a runoff in December, with Perdue and a libertarian candidate combining for more than 50% of the vote and suggesting that Perdue holds the advantage in the coming runoff.

GA-4: Hank Johnson retires after 14 years in Congress and after a wide-open Democratic primary is replaced by Dar'shun Kendrick, a 38-year old female state representative.

GA-13: David Scott retires after 18 years in Congress. Out of the Democratic primary emerges first-time candidate Ricky Dobbs, a 32-year old former quarterback for the Naval Academy who is a Douglasville native.

All other incumbents are re-elected easily.

GA Legislature: Democrats pick up another Senate seat to narrow the GOP advantage to 36-20. In the House, Democrats win two more seats as the House trends Democratic for the third cycle in a row, with the difference now 112-68.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 138
Pence/Rubio: 49

[KingSweden]

BIAS!

You're kidding, right?

Thank you, Sanchez. There are plenty of timelines on here where conservative candidates do well in 2016/2020 (Reagan Revolutionary's is quite excellent) that you can read if you don't care for the sequence of events in EOTNM, where we still haven't seen what happens when Team D's luck runs out (it will eventually, like every political party's luck runs out).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

One small nitpick: GA has had at least two other African American women in Congress.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Alabama

Presidential: Clinton improves roughly at the margins, gaining a few percent over her blowout 2016 loss, losing only 61-37 this time rather than 62-35.

AL Senate: Jeff Sessions actually faces an opponent this time in 71-year old former Governor and Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom, whom he crushes with over 60% of the vote.

AL Congress: All incumbents easily reelected.

AL Legislature: The Senate stays the same, while Democrats gain one seat in the House to go to 71-34.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 138
Pence/Rubio: 58

Mississippi

Presidential: Clinton improves on her 2016 margin of victory, losing 54-44 this time despite zero investments in the state.

MS Senate: Thad Cochran retires, and the establishment/Barbour machine rallies around Stacey Pickering, who easily wins the primary despite noise from the Club for Growth about challenging him. He easily steamrolls a random state representative from the Democrats to succeed Thad Cochran.

MS Congress: All incumbents are easily reelected.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 138
Pence/Rubio: 64

[KingSweden]

One small nitpick: GA has had at least two other African American women in Congress.

Who, out of curiosity? I'll fix that comment.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

One small nitpick: GA has had at least two other African American women in Congress.

Who, out of curiosity? I'll fix that comment.

One was Cynthia McKinney, and I forget the other (though I know she ran against Issakson in 2004).

[KingSweden]

One small nitpick: GA has had at least two other African American women in Congress.

Who, out of curiosity? I'll fix that comment.

One was Cynthia McKinney, and I forget the other (though I know she ran against Issakson in 2004).

And Denise Majette! That's it. Incidentally, they both represented the seat that Hank Johnson retires from here.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Ohio

Presidential: Pence spends much of the early half of the campaign in Ohio, neighboring his home state, and doubles down in Iowa, Wisconsin and Missouri, too. Hoping that his appeal as a Midwesterner will help swing the region or at least flip a state or two to give him breathing room elsewhere, Pence pours well over $200 million into Ohio from his own campaign and is buttressed by nearly $400 million of outside spending in the state, and he campaigns with former Governor Kasich, former Senator Portman and current Gov. Husted, barnstorming rural and suburban parts of the state. Clinton revs up her machine here as the polls tighten and it starts to look like Pence will flip the state, which has an electorate that has trended away from Democrats in recent years.

On election night, good early numbers for the GOP are reported in Cincinnati, bordering Indiana, and in rural counties and precincts. Clinton's numbers in the Appalachian corner of Ohio are solid, however, significantly better than Obama's though slightly below her topline figures from 2016. Ohio remains uncalled for much of the night, past the point when the national media calls the election for the winner, but eventually belies its reputation as a bellwether by going very narrowly for Clinton, 50-48. She wins by less than 100,000 votes. Pence improves on Cruz (and Romney's) performance in the suburbs and in the Cincinnati region, as well as coal country.

OH Congress: The entire delegation is reelected without any retirements, primary or general election defeats.

OH Legislature: The Republican Senate majority stands pat at 19-14, while the House majority is narrowed for the third cycle in a row to 54-45, a gain of two for Democrats.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 156
Pence/Rubio: 64

Indiana

Presidential: Unlike 2016, when Clinton made a play for Indiana late in the campaign, her campaign ignores the home state of Mike Pence, who is expected to see a home-state bounce despite his dubious popularity as Governor. Pence wins Indiana 55-42, a surprisingly wide margin despite his lukewarm approval ratings there.

IN Governor: Sue Ellspermann faces Greg Zoeller in the primary, and Ellspermann narrowly defeats Zoeller to go on to face 38-year old South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg in the general. Though Buttigieg looks poised to capitalize on Pence's disapproval ratings for much of the summer and early fall, Pence's home state advantage narrowly carries Ellspermann over the finish line and she is elected as the first female Governor of Indiana 50-47, with a third party candidate on the ballot too.

IN Congress: The entire delegation is returned to Congress, including the perennially-embattled John Broden, who once again holds this seat for Democrats by less than 5,000 votes.

IN Legislature: Republicans take back one seat lost in 2016 to increase their majority to 35-15, while Democrats take one seat in the House to move that chamber to 65-35.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 156
Pence/Rubio: 75

[badgate]

KingSweden, I think the electoral count you've been using for Clinton's total is off by 2. The Map calculator is telling me that she's at 158. Perhaps you weren't counting the two Maine congressional districts' electoral votes?


Presidential

158-75

Senate

By my count Democrats are (+1) with the senate results.

70% shading = Incumbent reelected
50% shading = Result of an open seat (regardless of which party wins or held the seat before)
30% shading = Incumbent defeated
Green = Results pending upon runoff

[KingSweden]

KingSweden, I think the electoral count you've been using for Clinton's total is off by 2. The Map calculator is telling me that she's at 158. Perhaps you weren't counting the two Maine congressional districts' electoral votes?

That's probably it. The calculator is always right.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Michigan

Presidential: Pence does not make much of an investment in Michigan despite it bordering his home state, choosing instead to strategically focus on several core swing states like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin and Colorado, though he does run ads in the Democratic-leaning state. Clinton, meanwhile, does do some campaigning there with popular local governor Gretchen Whitmer and emphasizes Detroit's gradual recovery in her campaign stops. She wins the state 55-43 over Pence, who improves dramatically on Cruz's low vote totals and helps buoy downballot candidates.

MI Senate: None of the state's GOP Congressman are willing to give up their seats to challenge Gary Peters and his commanding war chest, and so MI Republicans run former Governor Rick Snyder, who despite an upbeat campaign probably should have run against Stabenow two years earlier. Peters wins 53-47 as Snyder was seen as more likely angling for a potential position in a Mike Pence Cabinet and ran as a good soldier. D hold.

MI Congress: An uneventful cycle downballot, as all incumbents are returned, including Bernero and Cannon, the two vulnerable Democrats who win with somewhat surprising margins.

MI Legislature: Democrats do not see their heady 2016 numbers, but they take two Republican seats, enough to flip the Michigan House of Representatives to seize a 57-52-1 majority, same as two years earlier with an independent candidate elected who will caucus with Democrats as well. The awkward power-sharing arrangement over the last two years is over.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 174
Pence/Rubio: 75

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Illinois

Presidential: Hillary falls slightly short of her 2016 total, winning 57-41 over Pence, who does moderately well in Chicago's suburbs but fails to hit Cruz's totals in the downstate.

IL Senate: Dick Durbin retires after 24 years in Congress and sets off a wide-open primary. His longtime preferred successor, Mike Quigley, is uninterested in the slot with a job as Ambassador to Canada. Former Attorney General Lisa Madigan has long since been appointed US Attorney for Northern Illinois. Tammy Duckworth and Robin Kelly both enter the race with the hopes of succeeding Durbin, and are joined in the primary by State Treasurer Mike Frerichs, a downstate candidate. Kelly and Duckworth cannibalize the vote in Chicago and allow Frerichs to squeeze by out of a heated, vitriolic campaign, and he cruises to a win over State Senator Bill Brady. D hold, and now Illinois has both Senators hailing from outside of the Chicago area for the first time in decades.

IL 2: Former NFL Linebacker Napoleon Harris is elected out of a crowded primary to replace Robin Kelly.

IL 8: Anna Moeller is elected to replace Tammy Duckworth, with the party consolidating around her early on.

IL 10: To the surprise of pretty much everyone, Bob Dold manages to hang on this time against Brad Schneider, winning by 4,000 votes. R hold.

IL 12: Mike Bost hangs on against Jim Clayborne, who seeks a rematch from 2016 and 2018. R hold.

IL 13: Rodney Davis once again has no trouble hanging onto his seat.

IL 18: After tossing aside a primary challenge from a conservative Peoria megachurch pastor, Darin LaHood cruises to another term in his safe seat.

IL Legislature: The Senate stays at 40-19, and Democrats regain three seats in the House to slide back to 65-53.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 194
Pence/Rubio: 75

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Louisiana

Presidential: Clinton, to the surprise of many, actually makes a play for the Pelican State late in the game as Pence's poll numbers deteriorate nationwide. However, she is unable to do much else other than tighten the margin, as Pence wins 54-44, an improvement over her 2016 results.

LA Senate: Bill Cassidy faced the sister, now he faces the brother as Mitch Landrieu decides to seek higher office on the platform of New Orleans' economic recovery. With a few spoiler candidates in the race, Landrieu is able to keep it remarkably close and, with a 47-43 margin separating him from Cassidy, they advance to the runoff in December.

LA 4: John Fleming retires after six terms in the House, to the surprise of many Louisiana political observers. Republican State Senator Barrow Peacock and former Shreveport Mayor Cedric Glover advance to a December runoff in which Peacock is heavily favored.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 194
Pence/Rubio: 83

Arkansas

Presidential: Clinton does not make a serious play for Arkansas this time around and Pence wins by a higher MOV than Cruz, albeit with much lower turnout (which helps Republicans downballot, for that matter), winning 55-44.

AR Senate: Tom Cotton faces an all-out blitz by Democrats to defeat him, and Arkansas sees its most expensive Senate race in history. Democrats recruit outgoing conservative House Minority Leader Michael John Gray to run against Cotton as an old-fashioned Arkansas Democrat in the mold of a Bill Clinton, promising bipartisanship and emphasizing his success at working with Republicans in the State Legislature. Cotton's incumbency advantages and Arkansas's rightward drift help him win by a narrower margin than 2014, taking the election 52-46 with a third-party libertarian on the ballot too. It is hardly the resounding landslide Cotton was hoping for and his staff was talking up before the election.

AR Congress: The whole delegation is easily elected.

AR Legislature: Democrats take back four seats in the House to go to 61-39, and the Senate stands pat at 23-12.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 194
Pence/Rubio: 89

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Iowa

Presidential: Pence invests considerable time and energy into trying to flip Iowa, hoping his campaign will also help keep Joni Ernst afloat as she faces a tough challenge (more on that below). Pence manages to keep it fairly close for much of the campaign, but Clinton continues Iowa's string of Democratic wins as she carries the state 53-44, a much bigger win than anyone was expecting.

IA Senate: Ernst, the top target of Democrats in 2020, is faced with the best recruit Democrats could have come up with - former Governor and USDA chief Tom Vilsack, broadly popular in his home state and after deciding not to run for Governor again the top D recruit in the country, who promises to only serve no more than two terms if elected. Ernst tacks to the center in an effort to head off Vilsack's momentum, but Vilsack does not make many of the crucial mistakes of the disastrous 2014 Braley campaign, and defeats Ernst 53-47 to give Democrats their second pickup. Democrats now have control of the United States Senate, 51-49. D+1.

IA Congress: All incumbents easily reelected to the House, even Chet Culver.

IA Legislature: Democrats expand their State House majority with two seats to go to 53-47, and the Senate stays at 27-23.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 200
Pence/Rubio: 89

Missouri

Presidential: Clinton coordinates with the Koster campaign to build off of their strong 2016 numbers and turn around the 2018 McCaskill debacle. Though Pence is nowhere near as polarizing as Cruz, Clinton makes an effort to reach out to suburban and exurban voters who have slowly atrophied from the party and manages to very narrowly eke out a 49.5-47.5 win over Pence to put Missouri back in the Democratic column for the first time since 1996.

MO Governor: The biggest threat to Chris Koster, philanthropist and ex-Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, decides not to run and the MO GOP nominates Rep. Vicky Hartzler, who defeats Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder in the primary. Hartzler, conservative even by Missouri standards, bombs in her debate with Koster and he is elected by a surprisingly strong margin of 54-42, with a strong third party candidate leaching off the rest of the vote. Koster is said to have coattails that carry Clinton in the state. D hold.

MO Row Officers: Republicans Shane Schoeller (SOS) and Tom Dempsey (Treas) are both reelected with ease, while Scott Sifton is narrowly returned as AG and his 2016 opponent, Kurt Schaefer, is elected as Lieutenant Governor.

MO 4: David Pearce, a former State Senator and Warrensburg banker active as finance chair for the MO GOP, is easily elected to replace Hartzler. The atrophy of women from both parties in Congress continues.

MO Legislature: Democrats pick up eleven seats in the House to go to 101-62, one of their better margins in the post-2010 era. The Senate remains at 23-11.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 210
Pence/Rubio: 89

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Wisconsin

Presidential: The nail is officially in the coffin for Pence when Wisconsin is called early for Clinton, even before the Western states are done voting. Though Pence's Midwestern roots help him cut into the margins from 2016, Wisconsin still goes Democratic 51-47.

WI 4: Gwen Moore retires from Congress after sixteen years, with a nascent ethics scandal helping push her out the door completely despite dubious evidence against her. She is replaced by State rep. Mandela Barnes, who runs as the most left-leaning candidate in a wide-open primary that attracts nine candidates from Milwaukee, though is lack of a strong mandate and narrow win over his closest competitor makes Barnes a prime candidate for a primary from a more moderate figure.

WI Congress: The rest of the delegation is returned to Congress, with Nick Milroy winning by much more than his district's PVI and trend would indicate.

WI Legislature: Democrats manage to pick up one seat in the Wisconsin Senate to cut their deficit to only 17-16, within striking distance of taking back the chamber. In the Assembly, meanwhile, Democrats pick up three seats, including the two lost in 2018, to further cut the GOP advantage to 55-44, nowhere near their Senate success even though the proportional gain is the same.

Clinton/Heinrich: 220
Pence/Rubio: 89

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Minnesota

Presidential: Clinton's MOV comes slightly back down to Earth, though her raw vote (and Pence's) both improve in relation to 2016. Clinton takes Minnesota 53-45, a serious narrowing of the margin by Pence though it is mostly for naught.

MN Senate: Al Franken is easily reelected to a third term, building on another Senate term where he keeps his head down and mouth shut to be elected with almost 58% of the vote over a sacrificial lamb state senator. This is not a race Minnesota Republicans or national Republicans try to target with their defensive map.

MN 4: Betty McCollum surprises many election observers when she decides to retire from Congress in order to take a position as President of the University of Minnesota System effective January of 2021. She is replaced by former State Auditor Rebecca Otto, who once lived in the 6th district but was living permanently in St. Paul in the ensuing years. Otto, by winning the DFL nomination, easily crushes a former Tim Pawlenty staffer to win election to Congress. This race belies the national trend of retiring women being replaced by male candidates.

MN 7: Paul Marquart makes a comeback bid against Torrey Westrom, who easily dispatches him with nearly 70% of the vote. This seat is probably permanently gone for the DFL.

MN Legislature: Democrats expand their Senate majority by one, to take a 43-24 majority to close out the decade. In the House, they gain back four seats, all in rural areas, to go to 78-56.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 220
Pence/Rubio: 89

North Dakota

Presidential: Clinton improves on her 2016 MOV and raw vote here, only losing 55-43.

ND Legislature: GOP gains one seat in the Senate to go to 30-19, and gain back the seat they lost in the House in 2018 to return to 73-21.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 220
Pence/Rubio: 92

South Dakota

Presidential: Clinton improves here too, only losing 56-41 this time.

SD Senate: Jason Frerichs takes a stab at the Senate once more, this time against Mike Rounds. The popular ex-Governor and inoffensive backbencher wins with roughly 60% of the vote.

SD Legislature: The House stands pat at 56-14.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 220
Pence/Rubio: 95

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Nebraska

Presidential: Pence defeats Clinton statewide 58-40, improving on Cruz's MOV (though severely under-performing his raw vote) in the rural parts of the state. Clinton, however, manages to win NE-2 by 617 votes, replicating Obama's feat from 2008.

NE Senate: Ben Sasse is reelected with 65% of the vote over former Rep. Brad Ashford.

NE 2: Despite Clinton's win of this lonely electoral vote, Pete Festersen is unable to dislodge the moderate and well-liked Jean Stothert, who hangs on with 55% of the vote.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 221
Pence/Rubio: 99

Kansas

Presidential: Clinton wins Johnson, Wyandotte and Douglas again, though Pence easily carries statewide with 54% of the vote to Clinton's 42%. Kansas is one of Wayne Allyn Root's best states, where he earns nearly 3% of the vote.

KS Senate: Pat Roberts retires after 40 years in Congress. Republicans rally around Kevin Yoder, who runs as a pragmatic moderate in juxtaposition to people like Brownback and Kobach. Yoder easily defeats Greg Orman in the general election despite losing his home district to Orman.

KS 3: Caryn Tyson is elected to replace Kevin Yoder, one of the few women to replace a man in this year's elections.

All other incumbents are easily reelected.

KS Legislature: Democrats pick up three seats in the Senate to cut the GOP advantage to 26-14, one of the best ratios for Democrats in decades. In the House, meanwhile, Democrats win one seat to go to 72-29.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 221
Pence/Rubio: 105

[badgate]

Does Clinton get over or under 50% in NE-2?

[KingSweden]

Does Clinton get over or under 50% in NE-2?

With that kind of narrow margin, I'd have to imagine under.

[badgate]

Presidential

President Hillary Clinton - 231
Indiana Governor Mike Pence - 105

Senate

Democrats are (+2) in Senate results, with two seats headed to a runoff.

[Ebsy]

Inb4 Clinton loses Colorado because we all know Coloradans hate her.