Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

Just curious, what Texas state senate seat did you have Republicans gaining in 2016 and losing in 2020?

You know, I really haven't gotten too deep into which leg seats flip. Way too much detail, even for me. I figure maybe one of the long-timers up in '16 retires and Dems have a recruiting flop. SD 21 or 26 seem the most GOP-friendly out of any of the remaining D seats, just at a cursory glance, but I know little about Texas politics.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You know I don't expect that level of detail regarding my home state - this is pretty good anyways KingSweden.

[badgate]

Just curious, what Texas state senate seat did you have Republicans gaining in 2016 and losing in 2020?

You know, I really haven't gotten too deep into which leg seats flip. Way too much detail, even for me. I figure maybe one of the long-timers up in '16 retires and Dems have a recruiting flop. SD 21 or 26 seem the most GOP-friendly out of any of the remaining D seats, just at a cursory glance, but I know little about Texas politics.

That's cool, I just wondered if you had gone that deep or not.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

New Mexico

Presidential: Favorite son Martin Heinrich's presence on the ticket once again helps boost Clinton's margins here, where the ticket wins 57-40 over Pence, who is a uniquely poor fit for the state in comparison to neighboring Cruz. NM is almost totally a safe Democratic state at this point.

NM Senate: The top-ticket blowout and Tom Udall's popularity in the state help him fend off former Senator John Sanchez 61-37, a massive landslide by New Mexico standards. Udall pledges in his victory speech that this will be his last term in office.

NM Congress: The entire delegation is returned, and Steve Pearce carries his district in a landslide despite Clinton's coattails and New Mexico Democrats making a play for his seat.

NM Leg: NM Democrats increase their House margin from 37-33 to 40-30, and the Senate stays 28-14 once again.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 236
Pence/Rubio: 150

Colorado

Presidential: Pence invests a lot of energy in Colorado, particularly by dispatching Rubio to the state as his main surrogate along with Senator Cory Gardner, in a tight race for reelection (more on that below). Clinton is able to rev up a now-reliable Democratic machine in the Denver area and with mail-in ballots is able to nudge Colorado over the finish line, winning 52-46, a decrease from her margins in 2016 over Cruz though her raw vote total is higher.

CO Senate: There is a nasty primary on the Democratic side between US Rep. Jared Polis, a member of House leadership and a social liberal, and US Rep. Joseph Garcia, a former lieutenant governor and an economic liberal. Garcia, despite being a known gay marriage supporter and having a mainstream liberal record in the House, is unfairly accused by the Polis campaign of conducting a dog-whistle campaign insinuating that Polis' orientation will prevent him from defeating Gardner, while in reality Garcia explicitly runs on Polis' immense wealth and his environmental causes as harming blue collar voters, particularly in Pueblo, the blue-collar heart of Garcia's district. The primary ends with a very narrow Polis win after weeks of ugly attacks by surrogates and a feisty debate, and in his concession speech Garcia urges his supporters to back Polis immediately.

Gardner starts campaigning early and initially leads Polis, who is recovering from the ugly primary. Polis quickly recovers thanks to a massive infusion of cash from outside groups, particularly those of Tom Steyer, and the DSCC. Polis makes his opposition to the surveillance state and similar provisions a cornerstone of his campaign and avoids the absurd "Mark Uterus" mistakes that Democrats made four years earlier. Gardner emphasizes his very moderate voting record in the Senate and his own work on PATRIOT Act issues to blunt Polis' attacks, and accuses Polis of being anti-energy. The campaign becomes one of the most expensive in the country and the polls show the campaign being neck-in-neck until the final days, with Polis holding small but consistent leads. On election night, Polis is narrowly ahead for most of the count, then Gardner pulls slightly ahead as more rural areas trickle in, and then Polis finally pulls ahead at the end of the night and the next morning to win 49-47 over Gardner and a libertarian. D+1 (the Senate is now 52-48 D).

CO 2: In this safe Democratic district, Kathleen Collins "KC" Becker replaces Jared Polis.

CO 3: Democratic State Senator Leroy Garcia (no relation) runs to replace Joseph Garcia. His campaign focuses almost entirely on turning out Democrats in Pueblo, leaving an opening for his Republican opponent, Durango rancher and first-time candidate Rick Lopez (fic) to run a savvy campaign emphasizing that he is a sixth-generation Coloradan and a moderate. Lopez wins 53-46, snatching the district back for team R by a surprisingly wide margin. R+1.

CO Legislature: Democrats hold the Senate at 19-16, and pick up two seats in the House to expand their majority to 39-26, a larger majority than they have had in years.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 245
Pence/Rubio: 150

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Announcement: I deleted Emperor Charles's original post re: Democratic wank accusations without seeing his mea culpa a few posts down. I also deleted a few posts that were in response (Brewer and Sanchez.) No infraction points doled out.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Wyoming

Presidential: Pence wins 65-33.

WY Sen: Mike Enzi cruises to a fifth term in the Senate after seeming like he was planning on retiring.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 245
Pence/Rubio: 153

Montana

Presidential: Strong turnout in Montana once again helps Clinton keep it close, though she loses 52-46 to the Pence campaign.

MT Governor: Popular AG Tim Fox defeats Angela McLean for the Governorship, returning the seat to Republican control after 16 years in Democratic hands and giving Republicans the state trifecta. R+1.

MT Senate: Outgoing Governor Steve Bullock challenges Senator Steve Daines, becoming the top-tier challenger Democrats need in this state and quite possibly their best challenger in any state in the country. Daines emphasizes his work on issues affecting the large Indian reservations in Montana, surveillance state concerns and energy development. Bullock runs as a bipartisan pragmatist after two terms of strong economic and demographic growth in the state and coordinates heavily with the Clinton campaign. The race is neck and neck heading into election night, with both candidates exchanging polling leads with the MOE for close to a month. On election night, Daines leads as early rural counties trickle in results until Bullock narrowly pulls ahead by only 2,000 votes. Daines cuts his lead down to only 1,200 votes with 90% of the precincts in, but late reports from some precincts manages to expand Bullock back to about 1,900 votes. Daines, down 48-47 with a third-party libertarian siphoning many votes from him, is just barely outside the margin needed for a recount request, but Bullock surprises many by announcing his support for a voluntary recount by SOS Bryce Bennett. After a partial recount, Bullock is certified as the narrowest winner of any Senate race in modern Montana history, even narrower than Jon Tester's 2006 victory. D+1, but only barely. Hillary's six-point loss margin here probably helped push Bullock over the finish line.

(Full disclosure: I was back and forth on Bullock winning here. On the one hand, Montana is a very conservative/libertarian state. On the other, the MT Dems are a savvy party and Bullock is a superior campaigner to Daines. This really is a race I had Daines winning for a while while coming up with the TL, and I almost flipped a coin to decide it).

MT Legislature: The Senate stays 26-24 GOP, while the House GOP gains one seat to go to 57-43.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 245
156

Idaho

Presidential: Pence wins 68-29 in the Gem State, one of his biggest margins of victory.

ID Senate: Jim Risch decides to retire after two terms in the Senate. Former Lieutenant Governor Brad Little, a popular official in Idaho, decides to run to replace him with a two-term pledge and deep ties to the state's ranching and extraction industries. After defeating Speaker Scott Bedke in the primary, Little cruises to an easy election over a Boise schoolteacher.

Both Congressional incumbents are easily reelected.

ID Legislature: Democrats pick up one Boise-area House seat to cut the GOP advantage to 55-15 (so not much change, really). Senate stays the same.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 245
Pence/Rubio: 160

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Utah

Presidential: Pence takes Utah 63-34 over Clinton, with Root posting solid numbers at his expense in the state.

UT Congress: The entire delegation is reelected.

UT Legislature: Senate stands pat at 23-6, Democrats take back one seat in the House to sit at 58-17.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 245
Pence/Rubio: 166

Nevada

Presidential: Clinton expands her margin from 2016, winning 55-42 over Pence, running up a massive margin in the LV area. Pundits start debating whether or not Nevada is Safe D now (it's not).

NV Congress: The whole delegation skates back into Congress, even Joe Heck, facing a solid challenge from a local business owner.

NV Legislature: Senate stays 12-9 and GOP loses yet another seat in the House to drop to 27-15.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 251
Pence/Rubio: 166

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Florida

Presidential: Pence's pick of Rubio as his VP actually seems pretty savvy for most of the night, as the Pence campaign hits the baselines it needs to potentially flip the state in Miami, with Rubio attracting many conservative Cubans and even some younger Cubans lost in 2012 and 2016. However, Clinton pushes the marks closer in Democratic strongholds in Palm Beach, Orange, Hillsborough and swingy Pinellas, and sees strong numbers (by Democratic standards) in Duval. A solid performance in the I-4 corridor for Clinton helps push her narrowly over the line when results for Florida are given three days after the election, with the results unknown the night of, winning 49-47 in the biggest of swing state prizes.

FL 8: Bill Posey retires after six terms in Congress and is replaced by his successor as State Senator, 65-year old Thad Altman, who pledges to serve no more than three terms if elected. Altman is elected in this coastal Republican district with ease.

FL 13: Charlie Justice fends off State Rep. Chris Latvala to hold this seat for Democrats. D hold.

FL 16: Vern Buchanan retires, and the primary pits State Reps. Greg Steube and Julio Gonzalez against one another. Both are fairly mainstream conservatives and Steube wins the primary with the endorsements of much of the Florida political establishment, including Buchanan. Steube defeats a Bradenton city councillor fairly easily in the general.

The rest of the delegation is reelected, with Dwight Bullard barely hanging on in the headwinds of the Pence/Rubio coattails in heavily-Cuban communities in South Florida.

FL Leg: The Senate remains 23-17, while Democrats pick up one seat in the House to slash their disadvantage to 73-47.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 280
Pence/Rubio: 166

Hillary Clinton has been reelected as the 45th President of the United States.

[badgate]

Presidential

280-166

Senate

D+4

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Arizona

Presidential: With no gubernatorial or Senate races on the top of the ticket this year, this becomes the big event, especially as Hillary Clinton pours resources into the state hoping to swing it with a growing population of younger professionals and booming minority growth. However, the staunchly Republican senior population and the conservative skew of Hispanics in Arizona who are citizens/registered to vote helps narrowly keep it in Pence's column, as he wins 51/47, a wider margin than Cruz's win in 2016.

AZ 2: Martha McSally faces Rosanna Gabaldon in a heated race for AZ 2. Though Gabaldon hopes to ride strong Democratic turnout to overcome McSally in this swingy district, McSally narrowly defeats Gabaldon thanks to a premier field operation and her record as a savvy pragmatist to win despite Clinton narrowly carrying the district by only a few hundred votes. R hold.

All other incumbents reelected.

AZ Legislature: Democrats narrowly the GOP majority in the Senate to 16-14, and gain three seats in the House to cut the margin down to 34-26.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 280
Pence/Rubio: 177

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Oregon

Presidential: Clinton takes Oregon with 56% of the vote to Pence's 38%, with Root and a Green candidate taking large percentages in this state.

OR Senate: Jeff Merkley wins reelection with 60% of the vote as he continues to appeal both to liberals in Portland and as his policies on privacy and surveillance appeal to rural conservatives. Oregon conservatives run Jason Conger against him, which does not end particularly well with his socially conservative views.

OR Congress: The entire delegation is reelected.

OR Leg: Democrats gain two suburban/exurban seats in the House to effectively max out their potential seats at 38-22, with no real other pickup opportunities with this map. The Senate remains 18-12.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 287
Pence/Rubio: 177

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Washington

Presidential: No surprises here, as Clinton carries the state 57-40.

WA Governor: Jay Inslee retires rather than seek a third term. Republicans quickly coalesce around State Senator Andy Hill early on, concerned that Mike Baumgardner might be too conservative of a candidate to win statewide. Democrats, meanwhile, manage to dissuade US Reps. Rick Larsen and Derek Kilmer from running. 11-year King County executive Dow Constantine jumps in and is regarded as the frontrunner, and despite making noise about running, Attorney General Bob Ferguson decides to seek reelection instead.

Constantine and Hill advance to the general, where Hill runs as a "New Republican" with an emphasis on education, transportation and reforming "bloated" agencies. Constantine hits Hill for his tenure as Senate Budget chairman during the years Republicans ran the state Senate, while Hill attacks Constantine on a fairly boilerplate "agent of change" campaign, emphasizing that Democrats have run the state for 36 years. Though Hill is one of the best candidates - potentially even better than McKenna - that the GOP has had in years, his lack of statewide exposure, Constantine's competent stewardship of King County for over a decade and the powerful Democratic establishment in WA help push Constantine over the edge, 52-48, one of the narrower recent results. Hill wins most counties except King, Snohomish, Whatcom, Jefferson, Thurston and San Juan, becoming the first Republican to carry Grays Harbor and Pacific Counties in decades.

WA Row Officers: Every row officer is easily reelected, including the Republican ones (Wyman, Litzow and Smith).

WA 1: Suzan DelBene is easily reelected over House Minority Leader Dan Kristiansen.

WA 3: Tim Leavitt reelected narrowly over State Rep. Paul Harris. D hold.

WA 7: Jim McDermott retires after 32 years in Congress, sparking a massive primary jostle to replace him. Democrats Mike McGinn - the former Mayor of Seattle - and State Senator Jamie Pedersen emerge from the primary, where Pedersen dispatches McGinn 55-45 in the general. Pedersen becomes Washington's first openly gay Congressperson (citation needed).

All other incumbents reelected fairly easily.

WA Leg: Democrats stay at 28-21 in the Senate, essentially maxed out in this map. They gain one House seat to go to 58-40.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 299
Pence/Rubio: 177

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

California

Presidential: Clinton once again hits the 60% mark in the Golden State, with Pence only managing 36% here. The Green and Libertarian candidates both net nearly 2% apiece in CA, and other gadflyish third party candidates gobble up the rest.

CA 3: John Garamendi retires. GOP State Rep. James Gallagher comes within 150 votes of taking the district, but Sacramento businessman Alan Hill (fic) defeats him by the country's narrowest margin of only 141 votes. This is immediately one of the GOP's top pickup opportunities for 2022, pending the map redraw.

CA 7: Ami Bera hangs on again, one more by a narrow margin.

CA 10: An attempted comeback bid by Cathleen Gagliani ends in disaster when she is caught on tape referring to Republican opponent Anthony Cannella as a "Mexican bastard," and she withdraws from the race due to pressure on both sides. Without a suitable replacement, Democrats essentially cede the race to the popular and moderate Cannella, who was favored for reelection anyways.

CA 16: Ashley Swearengin, thought to be vulnerable in her D+7 but trending R district, cruises to a surprisingly comfortable reelection over State Rep. Henry Perea of Fresno.

CA 18: Anna Eshoo retires after 28 years in Congress. In her stead is elected Silicon Valley tech investor Vivek Gadwaddy (fic), joining Ami Bera as Indian-American Congressmen with deep ties to the tech industry.

CA 43: Maxine Waters retires after 30 years in Congress after numerous health issues during the 117th Congress. She is replaced by Hawthorne Mayor Chris Brown, who wins a wide-open Democratic primary despite concerns about his rent delinquency issues in the past.

All other incumbents are reelected (even Ed Royce, Charles... ) fairly easily. Many are waiting to see what the redistricting commission tosses them in 2022.

CA Legislature: Senate stays 27-13, and the Democrats pick up two seats in the Assembly to go to 59-21, a commanding supermajority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 354
Pence/Rubio: 177

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Alaska

Presidential: Pence wins 54-44, a slightly better margin than Cruz in 2016.

AK Senate: Mark Begich decides not to seek his old seat, focusing instead on acting as a consultant for various highway, transit and oil projects in Alaska with his Begich and Partners firm. Dan Sullivan cruises to reelection over State Senator Bill Wielechowski.

AK House: Lance Pruitt is easily reelected for the first time.

AK Leg: Republicans maintain their substantial margins in both Houses.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 354
Pence/Rubio: 180

Hawaii

Presidential: Clinton wins 69% of the vote, albeit with much lower turnout and raw vote.

HI Congress: Both Takai and Gabbard are reelected in landslides.

HI Legislature: Composition of both Houses remains the same.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 358
Pence/Rubio: 180

[KingSweden]

Hillary Rodham Clinton has been reelected as the 45th President of the United States, and Martin Trevor Heinrich has been reelected as the 48th Vice President of the United States.

Some quick analysis of the election results:

Despite EV numbers, Pence improved margins with minorities: Despite losing by more electoral votes than Ted Cruz in 2016, Pence won more of the PV, a higher raw vote nationwide, won 34% of the Hispanic vote, 36% of the Asian vote (which is very diffuse - exit polls and analysis in later weeks show sterling numbers with Filipino, Korean, Vietnamese and older Japanese voters, and poor numbers with South Asians and Chinese-Americans), and 37% of the Muslim vote. With Rubio on the ticket, he nearly flipped Florida and won back many of the moderate Cubans in the Miami area who had abandoned the GOP in the three most recent elections. Pence's focus on education reform, his attitude of "it's in the past" on the 2017 immigration compromise many in the base viewed as amnesty, his smart utilization of Rubio, Brian Sandoval, Walker Stapleton and Nikki Haley as campaign surrogates and his campaign's genuine efforts to try to explain socially conservative ideas to non-Christian immigrant communities (with the assistance of political advisers from Canada's Conservative Party) helped improve the numbers.

It still wasn't enough: Despite his best efforts to shed that part of his persona in the general, and his ability to maximize these opportunities, his terrific outreach organization was not able to overcome his reputation as a politician whose first focus is on social conservatism, and that hurt him across the board with more secular-minded voters or voters for whom that is a lower priority than other issues.

The Suburban Strategy Strikes Again: The Democratic strategy of maximizing votes in moderate suburbs works in Clinton's favor again, helping her in "New South" states like Virginia, Florida and North Carolina and nearly flipping Georgia, by painting Pence as an unacceptable demagogue. This strategy does not translate downballot, where it is much easier for Republican state legislators and Congressmen to reach out to local voters and actually explain what they stand for. Speaking of which...

A disaster for House Democrats: A net of +1 in the House represents nothing short of an epic failure for the DCCC, which had talked about a coherent plan to retake the House in 2020, and Joe Kennedy will certainly not be returning to fill that coveted leadership position. Winning an easy pickup in Delaware and clawing away one Long Island seat while pissing away CO-3 is not nearly enough to return Xavier Becerra to the Speaker's chair, and there are rumors now that Becerra will retire in 2022, with a daunting "six-year itch" midterm before him and having already spent thirty years in Congress.

Senate Democrats rejoice: Pending runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana, the Democrats have gained four Senate seats and thus control of the upper chamber, making Chuck Schumer Majority Leader once again. As if it wasn't already obvious that the US is polarized, three of the four pickups were in states that Hillary Clinton carried, and the fourth was a very, very precariously narrow win in Montana where Democrats would have lost to Daines with any other candidate. Still, the performance gives them at minimum a larger majority than the one they enjoyed in the 116th Congress and an opportunity to continue to help Clinton appoint judges after a slowdown in judicial appointments during the 117th.

Good Results for Governor races in both parties: For Democrats, it was all about Roy Cooper in North Carolina. They wanted to reelect him, and they did, and so they will likely have a more favorable Congressional map in the state starting in 2022 (whether that actually translates to seats remains to be seen). Republicans wanted to maximize their advantage in right-leaning states, and they did, reelecting Patrick Morrissey in new stronghold WV and snatching Montana. They were unable to flip Missouri as hoped, but with sizable Republican majorities there they still have considerable influence on that state's policy.

[KingSweden]

November 2020: Clinton wakes up the morning after the election and is no longer the future of the Democratic Party, which she remarks upon in a post-election interview. Republicans hold a confab at a swanky seaside resort in Georgia to plan their moves forward after a frustrating fourth-straight loss of a Presidential election. RNC Chairman Greg Walden announces that he will not seek another term as the head of the organization. A mere week after the election, a massive snowstorm blankets the Northeast.

November 2020 (continued): A mere year before the next general election, Conservative Party of Canada leader John Baird steps down due to weak polling numbers showing the Tories in third place. He is replaced by James Moore, who defeats Tony Clement for the spot after Peter MacKay chooses not to return to Parliament. New Zealand Prime Minister John Key's National Party-led government is reelected to a fifth straight 3-year term, putting him in position to surpass Richard Seddon's record as longest-serving PM. Catalonian separatists lead in polls in their December referendum to "seek independence" - whether it leads to a UDI or not is the real question.

[Türkisblau]

Wonderful!

[KingSweden]

December 2020: Republicans win the runoffs in Louisiana and Georgia, so the incoming Senate will be 53-47, Democrat-controlled. President Clinton and Secretary of State Russ Feingold travel to Brussels for an emergency NATO meeting after the Yes question wins in the Catalonian referendum by 20% (more below). While in Brussels, Clinton suddenly cancels all public appearances and flies home in the middle of the night - rumors come out of the administration that she has suffered a stroke. Feingold remains in Brussels as the EU scrambles to defuse the situation while the White House confirms that Clinton is recovering from a stroke that is described as "minor," but Martin Heinrich assumes the role of Acting President. The Christmas shopping season is one of the most successful in years, and Q4 of 2020 is estimated to have seen roughly 2.1% growth.

December 2020 (continued): George Osborne survives his confidence vote and Mateo Renzi's PD government is elected with a majority under the Italicum law, giving him another five-year mandate to continue reforming Italy. Bad news for the EU<, though, as the Catalonian referendum succeeds and Oriol Junqueras makes a fiery speech in which he declares, "the Catalans have the leverage in all negotiations now." Podemos' poll numbers decline once again in the rest of Spain due to their support of the referendum. Emergency NATO and EU meetings game-plan how to respond to a feared Uniform Declaration of Independence, and the reaction will be closely watched by separatists around the world. A 7.1 earthquake strikes Sagami Bay in Japan. Though it is deep and close to the shore, which prevents a devastating tsunami, its proximity to populous Greater Tokyo causes billions in damage and kills close to 2,000 people in the populated areas.

And now, for Sports: Minnesota United FC, in only their fourth season of existence, defeats Orland City for the MLS Cup. Florida Gator quarterback Jordan Tatum, a junior, wins the Heisman in a landslide after leading the Gators to an undefeated regular season, No. 1 ranking and breaking school passing records. The FIFA Club World Cup is retained by Chelsea, the first back-to-back winner of the award.

[Maxwell]

What were the margin of the run off wins?

[KingSweden]

What were the margin of the run off wins?

Realistically, Perdue and Cassidy probably got about 55% apiece or so.

[KingSweden]

Meet your freshman Senate classes for the 117th Congress!

Republicans:

Brad Little (ID)
Kevin Yoder (KS)
Andy Barr (KY)
Stacey Pickering (MS)
Todd Lamb (OK)
Stephen Fincher (TN)
Ken Paxton (TX)

Pickering is elected class President.

Democrats:

Jared Polis (CO)*
Tom Vilsack (IA)*
Michael Frerichs (IL)
Steve Bullock (MT)*
Anthony Foxx (NC)*
Joseph Foster (NH)
Seth Magaziner (RI)
Tom Perriello (VA)

Perriello is appointed class President.

* notes a pickup from other party.

[KingSweden]

Meet your House freshmen of the 117th Congress

Republicans:

CO-3: Rick Lopez*
FL-8: Thad Altman
FL-16: Greg Steube
KS-3: Caryn Tyson
KY-6: Ryan Quarles
LA-4: Barrow Peacock
MO-4: David Pearce
NC-3: Chris Colton
NC-11: Ralph Hise
OK-5: David Holt
SC-2: Alan Wilson
SC-3: Kevin Bryant
SC-4: Lee Bright
TN-1: Timothy Hill
TN-8: Brian Kelsey
TX-12: Phil King
TX-31: Peggy Bartlett

Pearce is tapped as class President.

Democrats:

CA-3: Alan Hill
CA-18: Vivek Gadwaddy
CA-43: Chris Brown
CO-2: KC Becker
CT-1: Tim Larson
CT-3: Ted Kennedy, Jr.
DE-AL: Jack Markell*
GA-4: Dar'shun Kendrick
GA-13: Ricky Dobbs
IL-2: Napoleon Harris
IL-8: Anna Moeller
MN-4: Rebecca Otto
NH-2: Jeff Woodburn
NJ-12: Nicholas Scutari
NY-2: Steve Bellone*
NY-7: Daniel Squadron
NY-12: Costa Constantides
NY-13: Ydanis Rodriguez
NY-15: Ruben Diaz, Jr.
NY-17: Ken Zembowski
TN-5: Jeff Yarbro
TX-15: Terry Canales
TX-20: Joaquin Castro
TX-30: Eric Johnson
VT-AL: Tim Ashe
WA-7: Jaime Pedersen
WI-4: Mandela Barnes

Canales is elected class President.

Democrats picked up a net of one seat from Republicans to effect a 226-209 House majority for Republicans, tenuous but intact. The Democratic caucus has become much younger and more liberal, though with many fewer women, while the Republican caucus has become even more conservative than it was before. The 117th Congress is expected to be the most polarized House in recent history.

[badgate]

Presidential

358-180

Senate

30% - Incumbent defeated
50% - Result of open election
70% - Incumbent reelected
D+4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock is one great gov, and under a Clinton reelect, the best pickup, other than the Strickland one in 2016.

[KingSweden]

Leadership for 117th Congress:

House Republicans

Speaker of the House: Kevin McCarthy of California, retained for a second term in the job.
House Majority Leader: Cathy McMorris-Rodgers of Washington, who faces no real challenge for the position this time around.
House Majority Whip: Steve Scalise of Louisiana stays on, despite rumors of a challenge by Luke Messer.
Republican Caucus Chair: Tom Price of Georgia
Republican Caucus Vice-Chair: Luke Messer of Indiana
Chief Deputy Whip: Patrick McHenry of North Carolina
Policy Committee Chair: Lynn Jenkins of Kansas
NRCC Chair: Tom Rooney of Florida stays in this position after defending the House majority. Chris Collins takes over the Budget Committee and so Dave Brumbaugh of Oklahoma is tapped as NRCC Vice-Chair instead.

House Democrats

House Minority Leader: Xavier Becerra of California stays in this spot, though there are rumors he plans to retire in 2022 that begin circulating.
House Minority Whip: Joseph Crowley of New York
Democratic Caucus Chair: Terri Sewell of Alabama, who defeats Ben Ray Lujan in a race to succeed Jared Polis
Democratic Caucus Vice-Chair: Joseph P. Kennedy III of Massachusetts slides into this position despite his rocky stewardship of the DCCC.
Chief Deputy Whip: Tom Bakk of Minnesota stays here, a shrewd move on his part.
Democratic Policy Chair: Diana DeGette of Colorado defeats Tina Kotek (D-OR) and Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) for this plum spot.
DCCC: Evan Low of California, with his Silicon Valley connections, is tapped to run the DCCC. He appoints two Vice Chairs, Adam Smith (D-WA) (who is also ranking Armed Services member) and Marc Veasey (D-TX).