Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

Just wanted to pop in and say I've been reading this since it started, but just registered today. Absolutely love the timeline. Keep up the great work!

Thanks! I'm glad you enjoy it!

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

New York

NY Gov: Preet Bharara, thanks to his aggressive anti-corruption push, his courting of out-of-state businesses, his ability to stay friendly with an increasingly militant grassroots, and a booming economy in the NY metro area, cruises to reelection as America's most popular governor, a tremendous feat in the famously impatient state of New York. No serious Republican challenges him, focusing their energies downballot (where, as you will soon see, Bharara has almost zero coattails). Bharara defeats State Senator Andrew Lanza 74-22, the biggest margin of victory for a Democratic candidate in history. It is estimated that as many as a third of registered Republicans who show up to the polls vote for Bharara and then vote for someone else downballot.

NY Sen: Chuck Schumer easily defeats a Wall Street investment banker who has never sought political office.

NY Sen (special): Svante Myrick faces former US Rep. Dan Donovan in his special election. After barely avoiding a primary, Myrick looks to the general, where he is heavily favored. While it is thought that he will barely break 55%, Myrick comfortably wins close to 60% of the vote despite initially being unknown in much of the state and having been appointed just eight months earlier.

NY Row Offices: David Soares leaves the Lieutenant Governor's position (more on that below), and US Rep. Stephanie Miner seeks the spot instead after growing tired of Washington. She is easily elected along with Bharara. AG Ken Thompson is reelected 56-42 after a controversial first term marked by his antagonism with the GOP and Wall Street.

---

And now, for the House elections. Torie was kind and gave me permission to use his maps for a 26 CD NY. The NY Metro area is here:

 



And here is upstate NY.



 

Thank you again, Torie, for letting me use these.

[KingSweden]

New York (continued)

(A Note: I had to eyeball most of the districts in NYC in comparison to the current map. If I made any mistakes/flubs, please let me know.)

NY-1: Lee Zeldin is easily reelected over State Rep. Philip Ramos, 58-42.

NY-2: With the vultures of CleaNY circling, his general banishment from House leadership after Pelosi's retirement and after his terribly close call in 2020, Steve Israel announces his retirement after 22 years in Congress. With that, his old district is drawn into a combination with Steve Bellone's, where Bellone does not have to face a bloody primary against Israel and faces Republican predecessor Phil Boyle in a rematch. Boyle wins this round, 52-48. R+1.

NY-3: With Israel retired, this district is new and open. Veteran Republican New York State Rep. Brian Curran faces Democratic State Rep. Todd Kaminsky in a tight race in this narrowly-Democratic leaning district. Despite Bharara's sweeping victory in this district, Curran runs on his local popularity and moderate image and is narrowly elected over Kaminsky, 50-49, winning by less than 800 votes. R+1.

NY-4: Kathleen Rice is easily reelected in her much more friendly district.

NY-5: Meeks reelected without opposition.

NY-6: Grace Meng and Joe Crowley are both drawn into this district. Due to his leadership post, Crowley earns almost all of the endorsements and institutional support, and his careful cultivation of liberal groups prevent anyone from coalescing around Meng. Meng thus decides not to seek reelection, leaving Congress after 10 years.

NY-7: Jeffries and Yvette Clark are drawn into the same district. Jeffries defeats Clark in the primary by tacking to the left, and is elected with no opposition.

NY-8: Hakeem Jeffries' district has now been redrawn as a Republican Orthodox Jewish district. State Senator David Storobin, who returned to the chamber in 2018, is easily elected in this district with minimal Democratic opposition. R+1.

NY-9: Daniel Squadron is easily reelected.

NY-10: Costa Constantides reelected without opposition.

NY-11: Mike Cusick somehow survives again in a district made much friendlier to Democrats. D hold.

All other NY officeholders reelected. Now we move upstate.

NY-17: Zembowski is vulnerable after his district becomes much friendlier to Republicans. He faces Assemblyman Karl Brabenec, who runs as a moderate figure in this swingy district. Though Zembowski starts favored, Brabenec catches him by election day and wins 50-49. R+1.

NY-18: Maloney, in a much safer district, easily wins reelection over a car dealer.

NY-19: Richard Hanna is reelected with close to 70% of the vote over a local dentist.

NY-20: Paul Tonko retires after seven terms and is replaced by Lieutenant Governor David Soares, who boasts a massive war chest and WFP backing. He faces no opposition in the primary and easily dispatches a Schenectady city councilman in the general.

NY-21: Pete Lopez and Elise Stefanik are drawn into the same district. Stefanik and Lopez run against each other in the primary, with Lopez emphasizing himself as a moderate and Stefanik running on her ties to the region and her longer experience in DC and plum committee slots. Stefanik narrowly defeats Lopez in the primary and goes on to win the general 55-45 over a local hotelier.

NY-22 (old 23): After Myrick leaves the House, Sen. Christopher Friend is elected in the June special and is reelected in the general over Ithaca Mayor John Short (fictional). R+1.

NY-23: With Miner leaving her seat here, Onondaga CE Joane Mahoney becomes the frontrunner, defeating Democratic State Rep. Sam Roberts 53-45. R+1.

NY-24: Lovely Warren is only narrowly reelected over 70-year old State Rep. Mark Johns, 52-47, a close result in such a Democratic district.

NY-25: Chris Collins cruises to reelection.

NY-26: Brian Higgins has no problem getting reelected in strongly Democratic Buffalo.

NY Assembly: Democrats lose ten seats in the Assembly, mostly upstate and in Long Island, to drop to 96-54. In the Senate, Republicans gain four seats to take a 34-29 majority.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

New Jersey



One of the few states where redistricting gives Democrats a tremendous leg up in the House elections, as two Republican districts are drawn closer into Northern NJ.

CD 1: Don Norcross retires suddenly a few months before the filing deadline, allegedly due to an investigation into his campaign finances by the US Attorney's office. NJ Assembly Speaker Gabriela Mosquera surprises everyone when she jumps into this race. In this safe Democratic district, she faces minimal competition in the primary or general.

CD 2: Bill Hughes barely survives against Assemblyman Brian Rumpf, winning only 50-49.

CD 3: Tom MacArthur cruises to a 57-43 election win over a Willingboro City Councilwoman.

CD 4: Delegation dean Chris Smith is unopposed.

CD 5: Scott Garrett is drawn into a district with Rodney Frelinghuysen, who retires after 28 years in Congress rather than incite a bloody primary, and Leonard Lance, whom Garrett defeats in the primary. Garrett, in the state's most Republican district, faces little to no competition.

CD 6: Nick Scutari is drawn into this district, as Frank Pallone retires and the district is completely restructured. Though it is much more competitive than his old district, Scutari survives a narrow contest against 68-year old Assemblywoman Nancy Munoz, winning 52-47.

CD 7: Former Rutgers student President Sharif Ibrahim, a doctor, enters this race and easily wins despite anti-Islamic material circulated about him. He becomes the third Muslim to enter Congress. D+1. (Leonard Lance was drawn into CD 5).

CD 8: Payne easily reelected.

CD 9: Angelica Jimenez is elected from this Bergen County-based district.

CD 10: Ablio Sires is reelected.

CD 11: Paul Sarlo is elected after being drawn into this Paterson-based district. D+1.

CD 12: Trenton Assemblyman Reed Gusciora is elected in this very safe Democratic district to become New Jersey's first openly gay Congressman.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Very good! Can't wait to see how Florida's districts look.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Delaware

Nothing too interesting to see here. No Gubernatorial, Senate or Presidential elections. All statewide office holders are reelected, and so is US Rep. Jack Markell.

DE Legislature: Republicans gain one seat in the House.

Maryland

MD-Gov: Delaney faces State Senator Michael Hough, a Tea Party-aligned figure who decided to run for Governor rather than challenge US Rep. David Brinkley. Delaney crushes Hough in Baltimore and the DC suburbs, and his moderate image outside of those areas helps power him to a surprisingly decisive 57-42 victory.

MD-Sen: John Sarbanes faces little trouble dispatching House Minority Leader Nic Kipke, who challenges the Senator rather than try to win in CD 3, which is made much friendlier to Republicans after redistricting.

(Here is Maryland's map, drawn by an independent commission established after a 2016 ballot measure. It maintains both Republican seats, keeps two seats black-majority, and makes CD 3 fairly competitive for both parties).



MD-1: Andy Harris has no trouble in his reelection to Maryland's most conservative district.

MD-2: Dutch Ruppersberger retires after 20 years in Congress, making it easy for the independent commission to radically redraw his district. Ken Ulman, the former Howard County CE and running mate of Anthony Brown, returns from political exile to win the primary in this district and easily carry this safe Democratic seat.

MD-3: Josh Cohen is lucky he didn't have to face Nic Kipke, as this is officially a swing district now. Luckily for him, too, Maryland's swing towards Republicans this midterm was not too severe and he defeats Seth Howard 54-44. It helps that Cohen is from Anne Arundel County, and not Baltimore, in fending off suburban moderates.

MD-4: Anthony Muse is easily reelected.

MD-5: John Bohanan reelected with little opposition.

MD-6: David Brinkley, now in a much more friendly district, is reelected unopposed after Democrats flub their recruiting efforts.

MD-7: Elijah Cummings retires after 26 years in Congress. Out of a wide-open, often  nasty primary, Baltimore DA Marilyn Mosby emerges victorious and cruises to an easy reelection in this ultra-Democratic district.

MD-8: Kumar Barve dominates in his reelection campaign, winning with nearly 70% of the vote.

MD Leg: Democrats lose one seat to drop to 36-11 in the Senate, and gain one seat in the House of Delegates to go to a 94-47 majority.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Pennsylvania

PA-Gov: Charlie Dent faces no primary as he runs for the GOP nomination, while it's a battle of the Matts as Matt Cartwright and Matt Bradford face off for the nod. Cartwright narrowly edges the rising star Bradford and faces the moderate Dent in the general election. After two terms of technocratic Tom Wolf, Dent runs as a reformer well attuned to Pennsylvania's moderate persona and with lowered midterm turnout wins the Governor's Mansion 53-45, which is a lower percentage than he was expected to net after a surprisingly spirited campaign from the progressive Cartwright. R Gain.

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak is viewed as vulnerable the entire cycle, mostly due to his history of feuds with other Democrats and what is perceived as an abrasive persona. Ryan Costello, drawn out of his district by the court that rejiggers the House map, runs as a younger version of Charlie Dent, emphasizing his centrist credentials in the House and runs as an agent of change. Sestak counters with a high-energy campaign, criss-crossing the state for much of the preceding year to rebuild support, and Democrat power brokers sweep in to make sure he isn't taken out. Though Costello leads early in the count, Philadelphia eventually pushes Sestak barely over the edge, 49-47, to earn him a second term in the Senate. Dent's smaller-than-expected margin of victory is cited as the reason for Costello's heartbreakingly narrow loss.

(Reminder Map)



PA-1: Michael Nutter faces no opposition in this safe Democratic district.

PA-2: In a brand-new Philadelphia seat, Seth Williams is elected by a wide margin in yet another safe Democratic seat. (He essentially replaces Matt Bradford, who was drawn into CD 5).

PA-3: Bob Brady's South Philly home is now connected to Delaware County. Though there are rumors among suburbanites and many progressives about primarying the increasingly bombastic party chairman, particularly after corruption rumors start to circulate, it goes nowhere and Brady is easily elected to another term.

PA-4: Joe Pitts is drawn into this district, which despite its nominal Democratic lean he manages to win 52-45 over former US Rep. Judy Schwank, who really, really wants to get back to the House.

PA-5: Brendan Boyle is easily reelected in this Democratic-leaning suburban district.

PA-6: Patrick Murphy goes down! Chuck McIlhinney defeats him 54-40 in a surprisingly decisive margin as Murphy once again runs a somnambulant campaign and the DCCC fails to bail him out. R+1.

PA-7: With the state map being completely overhauled, this Harrisburg-based district is won by State Rep. Martin Tuck (fictional), a 33-year old Republican who becomes the state's youngest member.

PA-8: 36-year old State Senator Justin Simmons becomes the newest member of the House Millennial Caucus as he wins the race in a Democratic-leaning district to replace Charlie Dent, defeating State Rep. Mike Schlossberg 54-44 in a surprisingly wide margin.

PA-9: Scott Perry winds up in this district, which he carries with minimal opposition.

PA-10: This district becomes the new home for Keith Rothfus.

PA-11: Tom Marino is drawn into a much less friendly district after he gets heavily-Democratic Scranton attached to his rural base. He defeats State Senator John Blake 51-47 in his narrowest election win yet.

PA-12: Lou Barletta's life gets more difficult, too, as his district shifts in a more Democratic direction. Still, the popular former Hazleton Mayor has little difficulty dispatching a local pediatrician 55-45 in a race that the DCCC never really pays much attention to.

PA-13: This becomes Bill Shuster's new home, where he is easily elected with north of 60% of the vote.

PA-14: Thanks to Mike Kelly's retirement, another empty Safe R seat can be drawn in Southwest Pennsylvania. Tommy Sankey is elected here with nearly 70% of the vote.

PA-15: Luke Ravenstahl has no problem being reelected here after he opts not to seek the Governorship.

PA-16: Tim Murphy is elected once again in this suburban Pittsburgh seat, winning close to 55% of the vote.

PA-17: Glenn Thompson wins by a healthy 53-45 margin over Erie County CE Kathy Dahlkemper, who formerly represented the area in the House from 2009-2011.

PA's delegation is, as a result of redistricting/2022 elections, 5 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Despite a favorable new map, Democrats are unable to take advantage and Republicans maintain their seat advantage in PA.

PA Legislature: The hoped-for "Dentslide" never materializes for Republicans, who only win three seats in the redistricted House to take a 107-96 majority, well short of the 120 seats they were expecting. The Senate remains, as before, 27-23.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

West Virginia

WV-1: As his district is drawn together with Alex Mooney's, David McKinley elects to retire after 12 years in Congress. Mooney easily wins in this Safe R district.

WV-2: Daniel Hall, in a renumbered district, is easily elected over former Governor Earl Ray Tomblin.

WV Legislature: Republicans win two seats in the Senate to expand their majority to 24-10, while they win two seats in the House to go up to 67-33.

Kentucky

(Minimal changes to the map. Here is Muon's take, which I used:)



KY-Sen: Rand Paul, a firm believer in term limits, retires after two terms in the Senate, leaving behind a legacy as a leader of the nascent quasi-libertarian movement within the GOP. Brett Guthrie enters the race to succeed him, as Thomas Massie declines with only two years of his first Gubernatorial term under his belt. Democrats run former Governor Jack Conway against Guthrie, who dispatches him 55-43. R hold.

KY-2: 37-year old State Rep. Michael Meredith is elected to replace Guthrie after winning the Republican primary easily.

KY Legislature: Republicans finally do it - they gain nine seats in the Kentucky House to take a 54-46 majority and give them the long-sought trifecta in the state, paving the way for what will surely be very conservative reforms in the state coming down the pike.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Virginia

No Senate or top-line elections this year, so all the action is in the House. A reminder map:



CD 2: In a slightly more Republican district, Will Sessoms is easily reelected to a third term.

CD 4: Robert Hurt is drawn into this considerably more conservative district, where he beats back two conservative primary challengers out of the House of Delegates to line up an easy election to a seventh term in the House.

CD 5: After Rick Morris' retirement (he made a pledge to serve no more than three terms) and Bob Hurt being drawn into the 4th, this Richmond-suburbs seat is open. David Brat attempts a comeback, but is defeated in the primary by the more mainstream State Senator Christoper Peace, who turns 46 a week after the election. In a Republican district in a midterm year, Peace easily wins the fall election.

CD 9: Morgan Griffith surprises many when he announces his retirement after twelve years in Congress, especially at the relatively young age of 64 (by Congressional standards) and his presence in a seat Democrats are unlikely to ever contest. 46-year old Delegate Greg Habeeb, who succeeded Griffith in the HOD and had been close to the Congressman for nearly two decades, is elected to succeed him after winning the key endorsements and institutional support in the primary.

CD 10: Jennifer Wexton faces a stiff challenge in her suburban, D-trending district which is about as close to a pure swing district as you can find in Virginia. Tag Greason challenges her again, but despite the district being only nominally more Democratic, Wexton was prepared this time and had no Senatorial run to speculate over, and defeats Greason 52-47, much more decisively than last time even though its still not a very wide margin.

CD 11: Gerry Connolly retires. In this now-safe Democratic district, where winning the primary is tantamount to election, it is Delegate Scott Surovell who defeats fellow Delegates Rob Krupicka and Marcus Simon and Senator Chap Peterson in this district's primary. Surovell has no problems getting elected in the fall general, earning nearly 65% of the vote against a former Republican congressional staffer.

CD 12: In this new district, Democrats start with a decisive advantage, especially when well-regarded former AG candidate Mike Futrell runs. He effectively clears the primary field and is easily elected in the fall general to give Democrats their fourth NoVA seat. D+1 (sort of).

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Tennessee

TN-Gov: Bob Corker faces almost no primary opposition and TN Democrats punt once again on trying to field a competitive candidate after Steve Cohen passes.

(Muon's Tennessee map. Minor changes to existing districts, mostly).


[/quote]

TN-6: Diane Black retires after 12 years in Congress, leaving her seat open as her home is drawn into the 4th where Bill Ketron reigns. Ryan Williams is elected to replace her in this Safe GOP district.

All other incumbents are reelected.

TN Legislature: Democrats win four more seats in the Tennessee legislature, bucking their national trend, to cut the Republican majority to a still-decisive 67-32. The Senate stays 28-5 once again.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

North Carolina

NC-Sen: North Carolina's longtime penchant for ejecting incumbents, particularly after one term (and especially in this Senate class, the old Sam Ervin seat) continues as Richard Hudson challenges Janet Cowell. Hudson, hardly a conservative ideologue, survives a primary in which the right-wing vote is split up among several candidates and is able to talk to swingy, right-leaning suburbanites and runs on just a slightly more conservative version of Anthony Foxx's platform from two years ago, reinforcing North Carolina's position as the ultimate swing state. Democrats and Republicans both pour massive resources into this state, and the DSCC nearly doubles its outlays in the final two weeks, but Hudson triumphs in the end, 49-47. R+1.

(Reminder House Map:)



I tried coming up with a reason why this map would exist (mostly because I don't want to draw a new one). I imagine some kind of scenario where Cooper refuses to sign anything or there's some kind of lawsuit, etc. and eventually a compromise map is drawn.

NC-1: Chris Colton is drawn into this district, which he wins fairly easily to earn a second term in Congress.

NC-2: 67-year old Senate Majority Leader Harry Brown runs for and is elected to this seat, promising to serve a maximum of three terms.

NC-3: Black state rep. Antwan Jackson is elected here after two terms in the House from the Fayetteville region.

NC-4: Drawn into a much more Democratic district to compensate for other Republicans being made more safe, George Holding decides not to seek reelection. The winner of this arrangement is Grier Martin, who defeats Clay Aiken in the primary to coast into Congress. D+1.

NC-5: After GK Butterfield's retirement, David Rouzer is drawn into this new district and elected to a fifth term in office.

NC-6: Chapel Hill's Valerie Foushee is drawn into this Safe D district.

NC-7: Despite being in a Lean D seat, US Rep. Mark Walker is reelected to a fifth term in the House when he defeats Greensboro State Rep. Pricey Harrison 53-46 in his closest election yet.

NC-8: Virginia Foxx is elected to her tenth term in the House in this Winston-Salem area district with minimal opposition from either party.

NC-9: Ralph Hise is reelected to a second term after warding off a conservative primary challenger, facing only minimal opposition in the general.

NC-10: Malcolm Graham wins elected to a third term in this district that is now concentrated almost entirely in Charlotte.

NC-11: Richard Hudson leaves this district behind in his Senate run, creating an open seat in an R-leaning CD. Democrats try to make it competitive with State Rep. Tricia Cotham, who comes painfully close to defeating Republican State Rep. Dean Arp, losing 51-48 in North Carolina's most competitive district.

NC-12: Renee Ellmers wins here fairly easily over State Rep. Gale Adcock.

NC-13: Bob Pittenger retires after a decade in Congress. In this Safe R district, he is replaced with 37-year old State Rep. Justin Burr, by now the Majority Leader, who mostly clears the primary field as he is acceptable both to establishment-types and conservatives.

NC-14: Patrick McHenry has no trouble in this conservative district.

The Congressional delegation is now 10R-4D, a gain of one thanks to the new district created.

NC Legislature: The GOP gains one Senate seat under a much-less gerrymandered map to go to 32-18 again, while gaining two seats in the House to go to 70-50.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

South Carolina

SC-Gov: Mick Mulvaney faces a lively primary challenge from State Senate Majority Whip Shane Massey, who runs against Mulvaney's confrontational, polarizing style and promises a more "cordial, gentlemanly style" in Columbia. Chamber of Commerce types and recent transplants largely back Massey, while Upstate conservatives swing behind Mulvaney. With a smattering of small challengers, they advance to a runoff, where Mulvaney defeats Massey 52-48. Mulvaney then defeats longtime House Minority Leader Todd Rutherford, who runs for Governor and loses a surprisingly narrow 50-47 race, as many moderate conservatives coalesce behind Rutherford over their frustrations with Mulvaney.

SC-Sen: There are no serious challengers to the popular Tim Scott in either the primary or the general, and he romps to a 71-26 win over a no-name Democrat and some indies.

(The Congressional map has only minor changes to the 2013-2023 version).

SC Congress: The entire delegation is reelected.

SC Legislature: Republicans win one more seat in the House to up their margin to 77-47.

Georgia

GA-Gov: Jason Carter has spent four years with a massive target on his back, and the Republican primary is wild and woolly. Tom Graves jumps in for another crack at it, and Brian Kemp runs as the more establishment-friendly candidate. With a handful of smaller State Reps. in the race too, Graves and Kemp are forced into a runoff. Though Kemp is thought to have the advantage, for the second time in a row the more conservative candidate wins, with Graves narrowly besting Kemp 51-49 in an ugly, vicious contest with grim attack ads and Graves portraying Kemp as a liberal sellout while Kemp runs a widely maligned ad that insinuates Graves is mentally unstable. The "Nutjob Ad" becomes a controversial point and is seen as the moment in which Kemp fell behind Graves.

In the general, Graves runs a more toned-down campaign, emphasizing his work with non-profits over the last four years and his record in the House. Carter runs on Georgia's solid growth, low unemployment and successful prison and education reform. Graves narrowly leads in the race for most of the fall, but Carter gets a last-minute surge that prevents Graves from clinching in November.  Winning election night 48-45, a runoff is slotted between the two men in December.

GA-Sen: Johnny Isakson retires after 18 years in Congress and with his Parkinson's disease severely advanced. The Republican primary features several small-time candidates from the legislature, former Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, and two US Reps., with Rob Woodall the more establishment-friendly of the two and Barry Loudermilk the more conservative. The primary is initially expected to go to a runoff between the two Representatives, in which Loudermilk would see a decisive advantage, but Woodall shocks many when he wins the first round of the primary with 53% of the vote to Loudermilk's 30% and Cagle's 9%. It is a stunningly decisive result. Democrats curse the results, as they were hoping for a Loudermilk candidacy they could exploit into an upset win.

Woodall faces consensus Democratic choice Scott Holcomb, at this point the Senate Minority Leader. Holcomb is seen as one of the best statewide options besides Carter and Nunn in years, yet Woodall manages to consolidate the conservatives who backed Loudermilk once into the general and appeals directly to many of the more moderate recent transplants in the Atlanta suburbs. Holcomb makes it close, but Woodall clinches election without a runoff, winning 51-46. R hold.





Rob Woodall's seat is sacrificed in order to make GA-2 and GA-13 much less friendly to Democrats and to shore up the other districts as the Atlanta suburbs continue their growth and diversification.

GA-2: Sanford Bishop faces his closest race in decades, only defeating State Senator Greg Kirk from Americus 50-46, narrowly avoiding a runoff.

GA-6: As part of a redistricting compromise, Republicans cede Democrats this district on the insistence of Governor Jason Carter while watering down nearby Democratic districts. 34-year old State Rep. Eric Stanton (fictional) of Gwinnett County is elected here for the Democrats, becoming the first white Democratic representative from Georgia in eight years. D+1.

GA-11: The winner of the primary to replace Barry Loudermilk is State Rep. Ed Setzler, the Majority Whip of the Georgia House.

GA-13: Ricky Dobbs, with his district made much friendlier to Republicans, was expected to be a top target, yet he wins fairly easily 54-44 in his first reelection campaign over State Senator Judson Hill.

The rest of the delegation is returned without much controversy or trouble.

GA Legislature: Senate standings of 36-20 remain despite a much friendlier map for Democrats, and in the House Republicans pick up one seat to go to 113-67 after three straight years of small D gains.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Alabama

AL-Gov: Democrats can't find anyone willing to take on the popular Luther Strange, who is one of the only Governors in United States history to be elected unopposed.

AL-Sen: Marthy Roby, having already won the special election over the summer, cruises to win a full term in her own right 60-39 over State Senator Quinton Ross.



This is a truly devilish gerrymander I have created here - in the wake of the Supreme Court decision in this TL that the VRA requires only a minority-majority "plurality", the Alabama GOP draws a map which eliminates Roby's district, made easy since she has jumped to the Senate, while lumping House Democratic Caucus Chairwoman into district with Gary Palmer, where the district is just Republican enough to effectively end her career. The VRA district, meanwhile, has a small black and Hispanic majority, but whites make up 48% of the district's population and have the plurality. The result is...

AL-1: Byrne reelected.

AL-2: Despite a rare investment by the DCCC in the area, Palmer defeats Terri Sewell 56-43, making her the most high-profile House Democrat to lose a race since the 2010 bloodbath.

AL-3: In a district where black turnout is everything, a low-turnout general election thanks to the two landslides atop the ticket lead to a depressed turnout amongst this districts African-American and Hispanic voters, leading to a narrow win by State Rep. Dimitri Polizos over 80-year old State Senator Henry Sanders, who jumps in after 40 years in Montgomery to try to salvage the seat. D-1, effectively.

AL-4: Mike Rogers reelected with no issue

AL-5: Arthur Orr easily reelected.

AL-6: Rob Aderholt, now in one of America's most conservative districts thanks to Shelby County, is a good fit here as he cruises to a thumping reelection win.

AL Legislature: GOP gains one seat in the Senate, win four seats in the House to go to 75-30.

Mississippi

(Only minor changes to the map, which stays mostly the same).

MS Congress: The whole delegation is returned.

Louisiana

LA-Sen: Charles Boustany faces AG Jeff Landry, who consolidates conservative support to try to take out the man who defeated him for the 2012 House runoff. Also in the race is former Shreveport Mayor Cedric Glover, who is still trying to get elected to Congress. Boustany and Glover both advance to the runoff, dealing Landry a major blow with just a year before the Governor's race he had been considering running in before deciding to challenge Boustany.

(Congressional map remains fairly similar, with several Baton Rouge precincts having to be attached to CD 6 as New Orleans' growth increases the density there and thus decreases its size.)

LA-1: Steve Scalise, having been bumped out of leadership, announces his retirement from Congress. Many predicted a gubernatorial run from a man once thought of as a future Speaker of the House. Establishment-flavored State Rep. Joe Lopinto and conservative grassroots leader Pastor Mike Montagne (fictional), both Republicans, advance to the December runoff.

All other incumbents are reelected.

Arkansas

AR-Sen: John Boozman, long thought of as a surefire retirement this cycle, stuns many in January of 2022 when he announces his decision to seek a third and final term in the Senate. Democrats, still burned by 2020, decide to punt and only a warm-body style Little Rock attorney emerges to challenge Boozman, who wins with nearly 75% of the vote.

AR-Gov: Tim Griffin, widely popular and uncontroversial, defeats State Senator Mike Holcomb to win another term in the Governor's mansion.

AR Congress: The whole delegation is returned.

AR Legislature: The House stays 61-39, while the GOP wins one seat in the Senate to get to 24-11.

[Maxwell]

How Republican are the two least Republican districts in Alabama now?

[KingSweden]

How Republican are the two least Republican districts in Alabama now?

Obama won AL-3 with about 53% of the vote in 2008, but it's white plurality so obviously very dependent on black turnout. The PVI here should be roughly Even or maybe R+1 by the early 2020s.

The other district AL-2 McCain won with about 52% of the vote, so roughly R+5 to R+6 by this point, with growth in Birmingham and by not containing Shelby County.

These are estimates off the top of my head, obviously.

[Maxwell]

How Republican are the two least Republican districts in Alabama now?

Obama won AL-3 with about 53% of the vote in 2008, but it's white plurality so obviously very dependent on black turnout. The PVI here should be roughly Even or maybe R+1 by the early 2020s.

The other district AL-2 McCain won with about 52% of the vote, so roughly R+5 to R+6 by this point, with growth in Birmingham and by not containing Shelby County.

These are estimates off the top of my head, obviously.

Interesting, glad to see some competitive-ish Alabama districts.

[badgate]

Here are maps I made of the results:


Senate

Governor

For both maps:

30% shading = incumbent defeated
50% shading = result of open seat
70% shading = incumbent reelected
Yellow = advancing to runoff

[KingSweden]

Here are maps I made of the results:


Senate

Governor

For both maps:

30% shading = incumbent defeated
50% shading = result of open seat
70% shading = incumbent reelected
Yellow = advancing to runoff

Looking good, badgate! I was hoping you'd do one of these again

A housekeeping announcement: I apologize for the delay in updates recently, and regret to say that there will not be any further updates until the 16th/17th at the very earliest. I've been trying to devote more attention to my latest book project and my 1 year wedding anniversary is coming up this week, so I'll be preoccupied with that. Thank you all for your loyal readership, as always. I'll be back to updating on a more frequent basis soon.

[Gass3268]

How is the Alabama map legal?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How is the Alabama map legal?

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(Basically, whites have to be under 50%, but the hispanic%/black% only needs to be larger than any other minority group, it does not have to be at 50%.)

[Gass3268]

How is the Alabama map legal?

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(Basically, whites have to be under 50%, but the hispanic%/black% only needs to be larger than any other minority group, it does not have to be at 50%.)

When was that case declared? That seams really wrong.

[KingSweden]

How is the Alabama map legal?

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(Basically, whites have to be under 50%, but the hispanic%/black% only needs to be larger than any other minority group, it does not have to be at 50%.)

When was that case declared? That seams really wrong.

Should be back in 2018 or 2019 somewhere.

[KingSweden]

The Ohio map. In fairly neutral conditions, should produce 11R-4D. Reasons for the map being drawn this way, with certain incumbent Reps no longer having a district, will be given in the 2022 Ohio update.

[hurricanehink]

The Ohio map. In fairly neutral conditions, should produce 11R-4D. Reasons for the map being drawn this way, with certain incumbent Reps no longer having a district, will be given in the 2022 Ohio update.

It's back!! Thanks for the update. Hope you've been well. I've been fascinated by your 2020s house maps so far.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Ohio

OH-Gov: Republicans have big expectations for this race, hoping that a win by incumbent Jon Husted helps them snatch Tim Ryan's seat, too. After being once again drawn into unfriendly territory, Betty Sutton runs for Governor and defeats Cincinnati Mayor PG Sittenfeld in the primary 57-38, with some minor candidates bounced. Sutton runs a surprisingly upbeat campaign, hammering Husted for a government employee hiring scandal and on his tuition hikes and budget cuts over the last four years. Husted's advantage in a midterm year with a Democrat in the White House carries him through, and he wins 51-47, hardly the dominating performance Republicans were hoping for from a potential White House contender. R hold.

OH-Sen: US Rep. Chris Widener announces his intention to challenge Tim Ryan for Senate and becomes the consensus GOP pick, with no other Congressmen entering the race, including Jim Hughes, who seriously considered it. Ryan, with a gargantuan war chest, paints Widener as an unethical insider and is helped when Widener blows up at a protester at a town hall meeting, getting caught on tape barking, "Either shut the hell up or get the  out!" The incident is seen as delivering a fatal blow to the Widener campaign and Ryan wins 54-45. D hold.

OH Row Officers: Pillich and Schiavoni are both reelected, and Josh Mandel is elected to another term as Secretary of State.

OH 1: Steve Chabot easily reelected.

OH 2: Brad Wenstrup faces no serious opposition and wins with nearly 70% of the vote.

OH 3: In what is essentially the old 10th, Mike Turner beats back former US Rep. Fred Strahorn 54-45, essentially ending Strahorn's career.

OH 4: Joyce Beatty retires after a decade in Congress. Senate Democratic Assistant Leader Michael Stinziano is elected to replace her in this Safe Democratic Columbus-area district.

OH 5: Ohio's most conservative district - Jim Jordan wins nearly 70% of the vote.

OH 6: Jim Hughes moves into this district and defeats State Senator Brian Hill in a primary and then cruises to an easy win in the general election in this Likely R seat.

OH 7: Bill Johnson continues to cement himself as an institution in Southern Ohio, winning with 65% of the vote.

OH 8: Pat Tiberi, in an even more Republican-friendly district than before, wins a 12th term in Congress with ease.

OH 9: This seat exists here thanks to Bob Gibbs retiring before the redistricting process started. A narrowly-Republican swing district, it is won by 40-year old Republican State Rep. Ryan Wilson (fictional) over Democratic House Minority Leader Lou Gentile (yes, I know he was a State Senator. Term limits, y'all). R hold.

OH 10: Bob Latta elected to another term in this Northern Ohio district.

OH 11: Matt Szollosi elected to a fourth term in this Safe Democratic district.

OH 12: Marcia Fudge elected unopposed.

OH 13: This is the district Betty Sutton was drawn into, which she declines to run in. Former State Senator and senior Husted administration official Frank LaRose runs here instead and wins easily, with his bipartisan record and military service helping boost him over a local union organizer.

OH 14: David Joyce elected in this district without issue.

OH 15: Zack Milkovich has no trouble getting elected here.

OH Legislature: Republicans win one Senate seat to go to 20-13, while they gain four seats in the House to boost their majority to 58-41.