Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

July 2023: Heinrich, chastened by the bizarre episode with Liu, submits for consideration Gregg Costa of the 5th Circuit to the Senate. A conservative (by Democratic standards) judge on a very conservative bench, Costa is obviously to the left of Scalia but is still more palatable than either of the other two options Heinrich was reportedly considering in either Kathryn Ruemmler or Neal Katyal. Cruz is in the awkward position of excoriating a fellow Texan who was once unanimously named to the Court and gives a speech where he demands Republicans filibuster every nominee until they control the Presidency and "can appoint true constitutional conservatives." Costa meets with Thune, Barrasso and Sessions in private to discuss his appointment with three men who all voted to filibuster him when he originally was appointed to the 5th Circuit. Sessions agrees to host him in a committee hearing after remarking that he is fairly impressed with Costa, but would like somebody even more conservative to fill Scalia's now-empty seat.

Wildfires rage across the American West, with air quality warnings triggered in six states. Just after 4th of July weekend, Ben Sasse launches his dark horse campaign as primary polls show Sandoval dominating both Cotton and Mulvaney and conservatives are crying out for a savior. Economic indicators show that the economy grew less than expected in the first quarter and shrank in the second quarter, indicating a potential recession inbound. Heinrich's approval rating slips to 43%.

And now, for Sports: Mexico wins its second straight Gold Cup, defeating USA on penalties in the final, assuring it of a spot in the Confederations Cup in 2025. Japan wins the Women's World Cup on home soil to earn their second title, defeating the USA - a now-common Finals foe.

[KingSweden]

Highlights from the first Republican GOP Debate:

Tom Cotton, on the expiring provisions of the Iran deal: "We'll have to revisit this step-by-step. There have been some situations where the Iranians have clearly flaunted the terms of the deal, and some others where they seem to have followed its procedures. Sanctions will have to come back into effect in some form, I think, and we may have to revisit military options depending on what we find come 2025 or 2030."

Brian Sandoval, on his support for immigration reform: "It's easy to say, 'I won't do this on principle.' It's easy to stand there and do nothing and make a big show about how you're making a difference. If you were there, and you'd seen what was in that bill originally, it'd make your head spin. And Democrats had the votes to pass it, too. They knew we'd never filibuster that thing, not with the nation's immigrants and immigrant families watching. So I said to Democrats, 'Let me help redesign this bill so it gets to a place where we can support it.' Conservative provisions and amendments that never would have gotten into that law are there because of my leadership, because I figured out a way to take a horrible bill and put some things we could support in there. Anybody who thinks we could have stopped it completely is delusional."

Ben Sasse, on the Supreme Court standoff (Megyn Kelly asks him a pointed question about the President having the constitutional authority to choose justices): "Look, we have to advise and consent. We have to say, in the Senate, 'is this the right man for the job?' Liberal Democrats in the 80s did the same thing with Robert Bork, they said, 'No, this is not a man we can support. He has to go.' With a man like Goodwin Liu, we did the same thing. We have to review anyone the President sends down to us and figure if they're really somebody we can afford to have on the Court." (Kelly then points out that Democrats approved the conservative Scalia soon after the Bork debacle). "Well, uh, yes, they did. That's correct."

Mick Mulvaney, on the Supreme Court standoff: "End of story, we need a constitutional conservative in that spot. It's a spot that Scalia has held, where he was the constitutional conservative, the man who thought about the Founders' intentions. That spot needs to have the same kind of thinker in it. The Senate should refuse to accept anything less, now that it's controlled by conservatives again."

Brian Sandoval, on the Supreme Court: "I was actually a judge. I know the difficult decision President Heinrich is making, and the difficult decisions whomever he eventually has confirmed will have to make. I understand it in a way no other candidate here does. Put simply, Goodwin Liu was completely unqualified to serve on the Court due to his temperament and poor judgment. That's not a political thing, it's about whether they have the wherewithal to be a good neutral arbiter. That's what I'd look for in a judge if I'm President. Not how many conservatives or liberals can we put up there, but how many fair men or women can we appoint, people who won't use the Court as a laboratory for social engineering or judicial activism. People who understand the law, understand the Constitution, and show some restraint in the scope of their ruling."

Jon Husted, on what he brings to the table considering Ohio's rising unemployment rate: "I've been a big state governor. I understand Ohio, understand how to win Ohio. I can talk to people there, in Ohio, in Pennsylvania, in Iowa. I know the language, know what not to say, know what people believe in and is important to them. We can have that conversation."

Tom Cotton, on the situation in North Korea: "I think our military leaders are handling it well. I think President Heinrich has done... well, it could be better. I think we need a more comprehensive approach than what he's had, but he seems to be working well with Japan and South Korea. I'd say we can probably do better, thinking not just regionally but how our own forces there, how NATO forces there, help stabilize the country. Because as President Park said, it's inevitable. On the seventieth anniversary of the armistice that brought peace to the Korean Peninsula, the two Koreas are headed on a path to being reunited. It's our job, at this point, to help make that transition as smooth as possible and make sure China has as little influence in a future Korea as possible. That's where I'm unsure about President Heinrich's plans."

Bobby Jindal, on his vision for a Jindal Presidency: "We'd go back to simple government, like under Reagan. We'd flatten the tax code, eliminate a lot of the complications in there. We'd reform entitlements to make sure people are working. We'd make sure enterprise was the driver again. And we'd protect religious liberty in this country again."

Closing statements:

Brian Sandoval: "What we've been doing for ten years hasn't been working. Whatever it is, it hasn't reached the American people. We need to radically rethink what a conservative governing philosophy is outside of "low taxes, less government" and position our party as something other than "not the Democrats." We need to stop zeroing in on the means, and start thinking harder about the ends. What are the goals? Why are they our goals? Why are they important to us? Instead of arguing about how to get there, let's find a common set of objectives we can rally around, that we can use to inspire people, rather than the same boilerplate we've been talking about for forty years and that we've seen rejected four times in a row at Presidential polls now. I believe, based on what my experience in Nevada has been, that I'm the man who can do that, who can start that conversation."

Tom Cotton: "We need to be safer. We need to address the problems out there in the world - Iran, China, Russia, and others - and figure out at home how to build a stronger country. Better, more efficient government, more jobs, more opportunity."

Ben Sasse: "Let's have a conversation again about the constitution. About principles. About how those principles guide all Americans, and let's get to work making this country great again."

[KingSweden]

Post Debate Polls!

Iowa RCP Average (GOP Primary)

Cotton 20%
Sasse 18%
Sandoval 17%
Mulvaney 17%
Labrador 14%
Husted 8%
Jindal 2%
Undecided 4%

Iowa RCP Average (General Election)

Heinrich 48%
Cotton 44%

Sandoval 52%
Heinrich 44%

Heinrich 50%
Mulvaney 38%

Heinrich 47%
Sasse 40%

Heinrich 47%
Labrador 37%

New Hampshire RCP Average (GOP Primary)

Sandoval 40%
Cotton 29%
Labrador 7%
Husted 6%
Mulvaney 6%
Jindal 4%
Sasse 4%
Undecided 4%

New Hampshire RCP Average (General Election)

Sandoval 49%
Heinrich 46%

Heinrich 49%
Cotton 45%

Heinrich 54%
Mulvaney 40%

Heinrich 51%
Sasse 43%

Heinrich 48%
Husted 44%

Heinrich 50%
Labrador 42%

South Carolina RCP Average (GOP Primary)

Mulvaney 30%
Sandoval 20%
Cotton 17%
Sasse 17%
Labrador 12%
Others/Undecided 4%

Nevada RCP Average (GOP Primary)

Sandoval 57%
Labrador 22%
Sasse 10%
Cotton 3%
Mulvaney 2%
Husted 1%
Jindal 1%
Undecided 4%

Nevada RCP Average (General Election)

Sandoval 53%
Heinrich 42%

Heinrich 49%
Cotton 42%

Heinrich 47%
Labrador 45%

Heinrich 46%
Sasse 44%

Heinrich 47%
Husted 43%

Heinrich 49%
Jindal 39%


Florida RCP Average (GOP Primary)

Sandoval 31%
Mulvaney 29%
Cotton 19%

Sasse, Jindal, Husted and Labrador all Single Digits

Florida RCP Average (General Election)

Sandoval 50%
Heinrich 46%

Cotton 48%
Heinrich 47%

Heinrich 48%
Mulvaney 45%

Heinrich 45%
Sasse 40%

Heinrich 46%
Jindal 40%

Heinrich 44%
Husted 43%

Heinrich 47%
Labrador 45%

[Earthling]

Heinrich is not in such a bad position if he is defeating almost all of the Republicans. What are his approval ratings at the moment?

Also, West Ham United won the Cup Winner's Cup in 1965, so they did win a major title before.

[KingSweden]

August 2023: A major chemical weapons attack in Seoul - see (continued) below - sets off panic alarms in the United States of a similar attack potentially being carried out by disgruntled former North Korean soldiers. Heinrich addresses the wildfire and drought crisis by angrily calling the GOP opposition to climate remediation, "generational betrayal." The move does nothing to endear him to GOP leaders, who are needed to pass his Supreme Court nomination of Costa. Thune comments in an interview that, "I've been pretty patient with President Heinrich. I've tried to be fair. He's starting to trend into Obama-level antagonism. This is deliberate." The plot thickens with Costa, however, during his confirmation hearings. He is cordial, expresses doubts about some of the more liberal rulings over the last two terms, and pledges to "be as neutral as I can be. It all comes down to if we have the same definition of 'neutral,' Senators."

Though conservatives start to whip opposition to him, particularly by Cruz who is on the Committee and rips into Costa during the hearing, when it comes time to vote him out of committee Lindsey Graham, the second-ranking Republican on the committee, announces his support for Costa and the committee is deadlocked 9-9. Conservative pressure on Sessions to block the nomination from reaching the Senate floor begins, but Sessions announces a voice vote after days of silence and Costa is referred to the Senate, where conservatives promise a filibuster. The issue continues to dog Sandoval on the trail, as he refuses to answer whether he would vote for Costa and merely states that he "understands" the issue best in the field, obviously an insufficient answer for many primary voters.

August 2023 (continued): A nasty chemical agent is released along with a bomb in the Seoul Metro, killing 314 people during rush hour and seriously injuring an additional 823. Outside of the Middle East, it is the deadliest terrorist attack since 9/11. President Park announces a manhunt and in an agreement with President Hu will speed up efforts to eradicate the remaining extremist elements hiding in the Korean mountains. South Korean media, in a reactionary frenzy, accuse refugees of being the instigators and attacks on Northern refugees ratchet up in South Korean cities. Catalonian leaders announce another independence referendum to be held in concurrence with Scotland's referendum. PM Albert Rivera angrily declares that the move would be "a declaration of war, not a declaration of solidarity." The Eurozone has entered recession again.

[KingSweden]

Heinrich is not in such a bad position if he is defeating almost all of the Republicans. What are his approval ratings at the moment?

Also, West Ham United won the Cup Winner's Cup in 1965, so they did win a major title before.

In the last post to mention his approvals (June or July '23 I believe) his approval average had sunk to 43%. More an indicator of the weakness of the field outside of Cotton/Sandoval than Heinrich's strength, IMO.

[Earthling]

Heinrich is not in such a bad position if he is defeating almost all of the Republicans. What are his approval ratings at the moment?

Also, West Ham United won the Cup Winner's Cup in 1965, so they did win a major title before.

In the last post to mention his approvals (June or July '23 I believe) his approval average had sunk to 43%. More an indicator of the weakness of the field outside of Cotton/Sandoval than Heinrich's strength, IMO.

Okay, didn't see those numbers. Still a great timeline you're writing.

[KingSweden]

Heinrich is not in such a bad position if he is defeating almost all of the Republicans. What are his approval ratings at the moment?

Also, West Ham United won the Cup Winner's Cup in 1965, so they did win a major title before.

In the last post to mention his approvals (June or July '23 I believe) his approval average had sunk to 43%. More an indicator of the weakness of the field outside of Cotton/Sandoval than Heinrich's strength, IMO.

Okay, didn't see those numbers. Still a great timeline you're writing.

Thank you

[KingSweden]

Labor Day - State of the Race

Happy Labor Day, everybody. As we enter the final stretch of 2023, we take a look at where the race is at for next year's Presidential race.

President Heinrich is not doing well. There are reports of more Cabinet officials getting ready to jump ship this fall, his judicial standoff with Congress is not going well, and the economy is careening towards another recession as one bad job report after another crops up. The unemployment rate has crept over 6.5% again, there are legions of people in their thirties who have never held a steady job, and once again another generation of young people looks set to enter a job market where they don't have the skills or training to replace the retiring Baby Boomers and old Gen-Xers who have clutched onto their positions for far longer than their parents would have.

With an underwater approval rating, Heinrich is lucky that most polls show him leading all Republican challengers outside of Brian Sandoval. This is a mirage. This time last fall, Heinrich was leading Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas by close to ten points. Now, most polls are margin-of-error. The numbers have tightened over the summer against Raul Labrador, Mick Mulvaney and Ben Sasse, as well. Heinrich has over a year to recover, but the indicators do not look good for the man running his first-ever national campaign at the top of the ticket.

Of course, the Democratic nightmare scenario is that Brian Sandoval cruises through the primaries undamaged. There were hopes that his various breaks from conservative orthodoxy - raising taxes, moderate stances on abortion and other social issues, his equivocation on the Supreme Court debacle - would damage him, but he seems to be holding his own in three key categories of primary voters. Sandoval leads self-described moderates and independents by wide margins, leads among women by a narrow margin, and leads among Republican Hispanics by almost 40%. This will power him in key states like New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada, and is what has allowed him to effectively ignore Iowa and completely ignore South Carolina.

Within Sandoval headquarters in Las Vegas, the strategy seems simple - he knows he can't out-conservative candidates like Mulvaney, Labrador or Sasse, and he knows he'll never have the appeal to hawks that Tom Cotton has or be able to credibly make a play for evangelicals like Bobby Jindal has staked his flailing, inept campaign on. He has only two field offices in Iowa and one in South Carolina, and his staffer coverage is low. Sandoval, as the only genuine moderate in the race, is banking on people put off by the other candidates caucusing or voting for him without blanketing the states with advertisements and wasting resources there in races where he probably won't win anyways. Senior campaign staffers all insist, off the record, that the Sandoval campaign would be fine with second or even third in some of these states, realistic targets with the conservative votes split up. In states more favorable to them, they will open the floodgates and aim for first to secure momentum in three states - New Hampshire, Nevada and Florida - that are key to winning the general election.

It has to be said that Tom Cotton's campaign has not gone as he hoped. The plan, according to insiders close to Cotton's Little Rock headquarters, insist that by now he had hoped to consolidate the support of the conservative wing of the party and begin taking his pitch to New Hampshire's snowy towns and hamlets to convince voters there that he was not a "war-monger with his finger on the button." That has, of course, not happened as he trails in South Carolina, far behind Mick Mulvaney - always to be expected, Cotton boosters insist - and a surprisingly tight race in Iowa with Ben Sasse, whom Cotton had not expected to enter the race. With a significant war chest and support from many Super PACs, Cotton is nowhere close to being done. Many veterans of past Republican campaigns - including several senior Pence '20 officials - have started raising concerns about Cotton's lack of experience appealing to voters outside of Arkansas and what seems sometimes to be a narrow focus on foreign policy.

The big surprise of the race is, of course, Ben Sasse, who jumped into the race only two months ago and yet has jumped to the top of the pack in Iowa and is holding his ground in other states. For Sasse, a win in Iowa would make him the instant conservative alternative to Brian Sandoval. Working in his benefit is an atrocious Jindal campaign that has nearly sputtered out, Mulvaney's timidity on the stump outside of his comfort zone in South Carolina, Cotton's inability to define himself as anything other than an angry young hawk, and Labrador's focus on attacking Sandoval rather than any of the other conservatives splitting up the right-wing vote. If Sasse can keep it up, he could emerge as a serious dark horse.

For Mick Mulvaney, this is not how it was supposed to go. Though he enjoys a big lead in South Carolina over Sandoval and even bigger advantages over his other conservative challengers, the sense in Columbia is that things are not going well. Mulvaney has failed to flip his advantage in his home state into any kind of traction in Iowa or Nevada. He can rest assured that he is keeping close pace with Sandoval in Florida, where his brand of fiery, Southern-fried conservatism plays well amongst the older voters in the northern half of the state, but there is a fear that he may not make it that far with underwhelming flame-outs in Iowa and New Hampshire cutting into his momentum. It is a very long time until the late February primary there, after all.

[KingSweden]

September 2023: The filibuster of Costa begins as soon as Congress returns from a three-week recess, with Thune having changed rules at the beginning of the Congress to allow "non-talking" filibusters again. Democrats, all 49 members united in getting Costa approved, start to reach out to Republicans to see if they can break the filibuster. Thune admits in an interview that, "This is not a good look for the Senate." Several conservative House members promise to recruit challengers to any Republican Senators who vote to approve Costa. Heinrich, meanwhile, makes a speech where he decries GOP opposition as a "constitutional crisis" and "government by extortion."

A major blow to Heinrich just weeks into the month as Russ Feingold announces he will leave State upon the confirmation of a successor. Heinrich turns around and immediately nominates Tony Blinken, who Thune acknowledges will have an easy time getting approved. Senate conservatives growl that they will give just as much scrutiny to Blinken as Costa, a sign that his nomination will be anything but easy and that Heinrich's nominations are essentially DOA after the Liu stunt. Pundits chatter that the Liu nomination might have been the "worst decision by a sitting President, in terms of Congressional relations, in decades."

September 2023 (continued): Two major elections in the Middle East result in new governments. After twenty years, AKP in Turkey goes down to a CHP-HDP coalition, Gursel Tekin becomes the new Prime Minister. In Israel, meanwhile, the Zionist Union government goes down to Likud, which forms a coalition with Yisrael Beitenu and Jewish Home. Silvan Shalom - a much less polarizing figure than Bibi - is elected Prime Minister. A headache for Heinrich as NATO commanders are caught on the record criticizing and mocking Chinese platoon leaders for incompetence and poor training in their North Korean operations. The clock is ticking towards October 2nd and the Scottish referendum, with polls showing Yes leading narrowly. Osborne once again declares that the UK will not recognize any independence referendum result, Yes or No.

[KingSweden]

October 2023: Despite bluster from conservatives, Tony Blinken is approved 70-25 by the Senate after a genial confirmation process and Russ Feingold leaves State after four and a half years at the middle of the month. After weeks of chatter about Cabinet defections and "sinking ship" prognostications, nobody else winds up leaving the Cabinet. Heinrich continues to raise pressure in the media for the Senate to allow Costa to be passed, even threatening to invoke an executive order banning the filibuster, though most constitutional scholars think that that's an empty threat. Approval ratings for Heinrich sink under 40% for the first time while Congress' approval rating is now at 5% and the GOP's is at 21%. The threat of Congress allowing the seat to stay empty until the next President is inaugurated is starting to look real, though more than one conservative pundit points out that all this does is give liberals a 5-3 advantage in almost every case. Liberals insist Heinrich look at a recess appointment and hoping that the Supreme Court overturns Canning - unlikely, considering that it was a unanimous decision.

2024 Status Update: Sandoval starts to pull away in Florida as Cotton gains on Mulvaney. Sasse continues to exchange narrow MOE leads with Cotton in Iowa. Sandoval's dominance in New Hampshire and Nevada continues unabated. Jindal drops out two days before Halloween and endorses Mick Mulvaney. Cotton now leads Heinrich in a few Quinnipiac and Gravis Marketing polls and is effectively tied in the RCP average.

October 2023 (continued): Crisis in Britain! The "Yes" side in Scotland wins 53-47, a more decisive margin than expected, leading to massive celebrations with saltires and the Scottish flag in the streets. The SNP stages a walkout of Parliament as Osborne gives a speech promising, "We will never break. We will discuss devolution - but we will never discuss independence." King George VII expresses concerns about the situation devolving into violence. Discussions begin in Catalonia and Northern Ireland - which is, for the first time, Catholic plurality - about "status referendums" there. In Israel, violence rages as Shalom announces an expansion of the settlement program mere weeks after forming government and promising Israeli boots on the ground in Druze to help secure the territory there. Discussions begin about Lebanon absorbing some of the Syrian hinterland. Bomb attacks wreak Anbar and much of the Middle East as the Turkish government begins discussions with Kurdish leaders about recognizing an independent Kurdistan in Iraq and creating a "Kurdish Governing Zone" within Turkey that would enjoy deep connections with Kurdistan. Rojava looks ready to attach itself to Kurdistan within months.

And now, for Sports: A truly historic event in baseball history - the Chicago Cubs not only reach the World Series, but win in six games, defeating the Toronto Blue Jays at Wrigley Field and setting off one of the biggest impromptu celebrations in the history of sport after ending their 115-year championship drought. An estimated 1,000,000 people are out partying in the streets of Chicago at one point right after the win. South Africa's Springboks win the Rugby World Cup on South African soil, making SA the first national team to win three RWC titles.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2023

New Jersey

NJ Senate: Democrats retake both seats lost in 2021 to go to 25-15 once again.

NJ Assembly: Democrats recover from their "Steve Flop" losses from 2021 and gain seven seats under the friendlier map they were hammered on two years earlier to jump up to 48-32, a fairly healthy majority. Speaker Lou Greenwald declares "It's time to get back to middle-class values in New Jersey." This is seen as the first blow to Governor Kean, who despite passing his massive reform efforts has seen his popularity erode as New Jersey's economic and budget woes continue unabated.

Virginia

Virginia Senate: Republicans pick up one seat in the Senate to cut the Democratic advantage to 21-19. The friendly Democratic map continues to pay dividends as Lt. Gov. Bryce Reeves cannot throw the tiebreaker to Republicans and add a further roadblock to Governor Mark Warner.

Virginia House of Delegates: Republicans stay pat at 65-35, with no change despite an increasingly Democrat-friendly map.

Mississippi

MS-Gov: Tate Reeves wins in a 61-39 landslide over 40-year old State Rep. Lataisha Jackson, who runs as a "new Mississippi" candidate. The state's traditional white-black split emerges as usual, though Reeves wins white women by considerably less than expected.

MS-Lt. Gov: Chris Massey barrels his way to another term as Lieutenant Governor, defeating a Jackson City Councillor 58-42.

MS-AG: Jim Hood finally goes down! State Rep. Jason White defeats Hood 51-49 in a narrow, bitter contest, eliminating one of the last white Democratic statewide office holders in the Deep South.

MS-Auditor: Phil Gunn has no trouble winning reelection.

MS Legislature: Not all bad news for Democrats - they gain one seat in the Senate to cut their deficit to 33-19, and pick up the five House seats lost in 2019 along with two Jackson-area GOP seats to go to 64-58, which is not that daunting of a minority. The efforts of former Governor Ronnie Musgrove's Blue Dixie initiative, which aims to build coalitions able to elect progressive and Democratic candidates in the Deep South pay off in these low-level elections, where Democrats have rebuilt some of their depleted ranks.

Louisiana

LA-Gov: In the jungle primary, AG Jeff Landry - coming off of a stinging loss in the Senate race a year earlier - advances to an all-Republican runoff against State Senator Rick Ward, a one-time Democrat who switched parties in 2013. Landry's bad luck continues, as despite his statewide chops Ward runs a campaign where he pledges to stand for "all of Louisiana, not just Mr. Landry's out-of-state interest groups" and where Ward criticizes Bobby Jindal and pledges to continue Governor Vitter's efforts to help the state recover. Though many Democrats are wary of backing the party-switcher and many stay home, Ward scores an upset as he narrowly defeats Landry in early December 52-48 in the runoff.

LA Lt-Gov: Billy Nungesser is elected to a third term as Lieutenant Governor.

LA AG: Jonathan Perry is elected to succeed Jeff Landry.

LA Legislature: Democrats pick up two seats in the House while Republicans defeat the last Independent, giving them a tenuous 53-52 majority. In the Senate, Republicans stand pat at 25-14.

Kentucky

KY-Gov: Thomas Massie is reelected despite dubious popularity ratings and a very right-wing governing record with his Republican legislature, defeating Democratic retreated Lundergan-Grimes 54-42 in convincing fashion. Democrats really, really need to stop trying to make ALG a thing.

KY Row Officers: The downballot atrophy continues. Adam Edelen is reelected Secretary of State, but both retiring AG Andrew Beshear and Treasurer Dan Grossberg see their positions taken by Republicans - Kenton County Commonwealth's Attorney Joe Fagan (fictional) and State Senator Chris Girdler, respectively.

[KingSweden]

November 2023: The filibuster is broken! Twelve Republican Senators - Lindsey Graham, Chris Sununu, Mark Hutchison, Josh Romney, Jon Huntsman, Jeff Flake, Pat Grassley, Kelly Schmidt, Dean Heller, Susan Collins, Richard Hudson and Shane Schoeller - break ranks and support cloture. It is a stunning rebuke to Thune, who gambled his status in the majority by backing Cruz, Sasse and Doug Ducey in their play to keep the seat empty. Discussions begin to swirl about whether Thune can survive, especially with protestations emanating from the House. Costa is approved on a final vote 54-46, with Graham, Sununu, Romney, Huntsman and Collins voting in favor after Democrats, even after expressing concerns about some of his more conservative inclinations, unanimously back him. It is a major policy win for Heinrich, who had looked lost on the matter just weeks earlier. The victory is short-lived, though: the United States is officially in recession, and only 7,000 jobs were created in October.

2024 Update: Brian Sandoval's numbers start to decline from their summer highs. Cotton narrowly opens up a small lead in Iowa over Sasse. Mulvaney starts to fade in South Carolina and Florida, where Cotton nearly overtakes him in the former and does overtake him in the latter.

November 2023 (continued): A gas shortage in the Ukraine leads to the collapse of Petro Poroshenko's preferred government and he announces he will step down as President and not seek a third term at elections in 2024. A Catalonian referendum is scheduled for late January. Protests sweep Scotland against the "dictator" Osborne, who has a 10% approval rating in Scotland, with negative numbers even with opponents of independence. In what is emerging as one of the most impressive streaks in democratic history, New Zealand PM John Key is returned for a sixth government after already having served 15 years in the job. Chinese commanders capture two high-ranking North Korean leaders and quietly execute them in custody. The first fully democratic Cuban legislative elections since the 1950s lead to the moderately center-left Cuban Democracy Union - a joint list of fairly disparate groups - winning a narrow majority of seats in the newly-renamed Congress of Cuba, ahead of the Communist Party and the right-wing, expat-backed Cuban People's Party. The new Congress will write a permanent constitution, appoint a President of the Congress to work with military President Jorge Galia (fictional) and set the stage for a Presidential election in the spring of 2025. New Secretary of State Tony Blinken is on hand in Havana to celebrate the historic occasion with the people of Cuba.

[KingSweden]

December 2023: Massive snowstorms blanket the Midwest and Northeast as a bad year for President Heinrich ends with an airliner between New York and Chicago getting caught in a blizzard and crashing near Chicago-Midway, killing everybody onboard and 30 people on the ground. In one of her first public appearances in two years, Hillary Clinton announces at a Clinton Foundation event that she will construct three Presidential centers - a modest "Hillary Annex" at the Clinton Library in Little Rock to serve as a library of official Presidential documents, a small "Hillary Clinton Presidential Museum" in White Plains, and a "Hillary Clinton Presidential Center" in New York at Columbia University to serve as a public-policy institute and foundation for the promotion of women's issues around the world. Republicans criticize these (privately funded) endeavors as being over the top. The November jobs report indicates that the US actually lost 10,000 jobs and the Dow goes under 15,000 after a gradual decline throughout the year. Nearly 250 billion dollars worth of student loans have been defaulted on in 2023.

December 2023 (continued): Osborne continues to be caught between two competing camps in England - those who applaud his hard line, and those who want to end the constant standoffs dominating political discourse and would rather Scotland just leave the Union. Sinn Fein and SDLP leaders in Northern Ireland announce that they will back an effort to "revisit" the Good Friday Agreement with the country now thought to have a Catholic plurality and many Protestants emigrating to England and the United States. European leaders, faced with yet another recession on the continent, start to worry about peripheral countries after Greece's economy nosedives once again, restarting the decade-long soap opera regarding its finances. New admissions to the EU are put on hold for another five years, enraging Serbian and Albanian leaders.

And now, for Sports: North Carolina quarterback Russell Darby wins the Heisman after leading the Tar Heels to a 13-0 season in which he passed for 4,677 yards and 55 touchdowns, nearly breaking Colt Brennan's two-decade old record. Seattle Sounders FC defeats the resurgent Chicago Fire to win a second straight MLS Cup. At the FIFA World Cup in Uruguay, national hero José Morales leads Liverpool FC to a 4-1 victory over South American champions San Lorenzo at the Centenario in Montevideo, where just weeks earlier he led Uruguay to a drubbing 4-0 win over the United States in a friendly.

[KingSweden]

2023-24 College Football Playoff

2023 Cotton Bowl: Arizona State defeats Oklahoma
2023 Orange Bowl: LSU defeats Florida State
2023 Fiesta Bowl: Washington defeats Cincinnati
2023 Peach Bowl: Ole Miss defeats Wisconsin

Playoff Bowls

2024 Rose Bowl: Ohio State defeats Texas
2024 Sugar Bowl: North Carolina defeats Tennessee
2024 CFP Championship (Dallas): North Carolina defeats Ohio State

North Carolina wins their first national championship! Helped in large part by Heisman-winning senior Russell Darby's outstanding season, the Tar Heels cap a 15-0 season with a national title over powerhouse Ohio State.

[KingSweden]

January 2024: The final race to Iowa and New Hampshire continues, with Cotton starting to split his time between the two states as he tries to keep Sasse at bay and eat into Sandoval's lead in the Northeast. A big blow to Cotton when Pat Grassley endorses Sandoval and Bill Northey endorses Sasse. Heinrich announces that the United States will not take a stance on the Scottish referendum, enraging supporters of the issue on both sides. Yet another attempted leadership coup in the Senate led by - who else? - Ted Cruz fails as the majority of the caucus backs Thune. The Brent Spence bridge in Cincinnati's top deck collapses during rush hour, killing 17 people and wounding over 100 others. The bridge, discussed for replacement for over 15 years, was weighed down by heavy snow. The public relations backlash is a big blow to Jon Husted's already-flailing Presidential campaign.

January 2024 (continued): Snap elections in Poland lead to the election of a left-wing government for the first time in two decades, as the newly-constituted Polish Future wins a narrow minority and adds the PSL and declining Civic Platform to its government, with outsider Lech Karnowski (fictional) becoming PM. The Scottish situation turns violent as unemployment continues climbing in the north of England and Scotland and riots rage in Edinburgh and Glasgow. Osborne is shot upon while in Newcastle, heightening the stakes. Lebanese leaders begin discussions with Alawites in Syria about absorbing some border territory as the country continues its slow-moving collapse. Anbar seizes more territory in central and southern Syria with several Alawite and Shia militias being massacred and suffering mass executions. Rumors of ethnic cleansing in Anbari territory brings back the horrors of the IS era. Israel and Jordan team up to occupy southern Syria, particularly in the Druze State. Rojava officially joins Kurdistan, over the quiet protests of Turkey and Iran.

And now, for Sports: José Morales, despite his Liverpool team being bounced from the Champions League in the group stage, wins his first Ballon d'Or. 15-1 Indianapolis defeats the Pittsburgh Steelers in their fourth straight AFC title bout to advance to Super Bowl LVIII in Glendale, where they will face the Minnesota Vikings in a rematch of Super Bowl LV, after the Vikings defeat the Los Angeles Rams.

[Türkisblau]

Big props for keeping this up. Things aren't looking too bright for Heinrich...

[Maxwell]

That's not especially surprising that Heinrich isn't doing too well - he didn't strike me as Presidential material.

[KingSweden]

The Iowa Caucuses - January 29th, 2024

Ben Sasse - 24%
Brian Sandoval 22%
Tom Cotton 19%
Mick Mulvaney 15%
Raul Labrador 10%
John Husted 10%

After narrowly leading polls in a three-way race for months, Tom Cotton is stunned as he drops to third. Sasse's presence in the Omaha media market helps power him to a narrow win with a dominant turn in western Iowa while dropping off in the central and western parts of the state. Despite his minimal investment, Sandoval manages to place second thanks to dominating the vote amongst self-described moderates and voters more concerned with the economy than other matters.

Cotton gives a grim address to supporters in Cedar Rapids, clearly shell-shocked and looking frustrated. Sasse, meanwhile, gives a cheerful, wide-ranging speech in Council Bluffs, beer in hand and glad-handing supporters. Sandoval makes a brief appearance along with Pat Grassley in Des Moines before jetting off to New Hampshire to make sure he maintains his momentum.

Two days after the caucuses, Jon Husted announces he is dropping out of the race and endorses Sandoval.

[KingSweden]

That's not especially surprising that Heinrich isn't doing too well - he didn't strike me as Presidential material.

Big props for keeping this up. Things aren't looking too bright for Heinrich...

I've always imagined him as a good and decent man who just might not be that great of a President.

[KingSweden]

New Hampshire Primary - February 6th, 2024

Brian Sandoval 37%
Tom Cotton 26%
Ben Sasse 20%
Raul Labrador 10%
Mick Mulvaney 7%

A devastating blow for Mulvaney, who places last in the state primary, further killing his momentum before South Carolina in one week (he is slipping in his home state). For Sandoval, it helps maintain his positive momentum post-Iowa as he cleans up in a state tailor-made for his brand of moderate Republican politics, and Tom Cotton holds off the "Sasse Surge" to hold on to his long-held second spot in the Granite State. The win, coming after alarm bells went off in Little Rock a week earlier, helps steady the panicky Cotton campaign and the candidate seems clearly looser after the primary. There are open discussions in the Labrador camp at this point about dropping out, though the candidate declares publicly that he will stay in the race.

[KingSweden]

February 2024: An uneventful month in the United States for the most part. The job numbers are slightly improved but the GDP growth in Q4 of 2023 was minimal, though not a contraction. Most analysts still consider the economy to be in recession.

February 2024 (continued): Two senior Druze commanders are assassinated in bombing attacks and a nightclub is blown up in Tel-Aviv. The Catalonian referendum pledges support for independence once again, and Prime Minister Rivera announces snap polls nationwide in their aftermath. The Russian election gets heated as various oligarchs and deep state officials jockey for power in a wide-open affair. Four NATO commanders - two British, one Danish and one Belgian - are killed in a grenade attack in North Korea along with several attached soldiers. Venezuela's rate of violence has been quelled enough for President Capriles to return from exile in Miami.

And now, for Sports: The Minnesota Vikings score a major upset by defeating the favored Indianapolis Colts at Super Bowl LVIII, winning 27-17. A pick-six by corner Marlon Humphrey seals the win, though with two touchdowns and no interceptions Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater is named Super Bowl MVP. It is the first championship in six tries for Minnesota.

[KingSweden]

South Carolina Primary - February 13th, 2024

Tom Cotton 26%
Mick Mulvaney 22%
Brian Sandoval 21%
Ben Sasse 19%
Raul Labrador 12%

A huge win for Tom Cotton, who reclaims momentum and positions himself as the conservative - and Southern - alternative to the Brian Sandoval juggernaut. It is a massive blow to Mulvaney, who led in his home state for nearly a year and invested nearly half of his campaign resources in carrying the state. Cotton's appeal to both upstate conservatives and military veterans/active-duty voters in the state helped seal the deal, while Sandoval once again enjoyed the more establishmentarian, moderate votes to himself. Sasse fades further after his massive Iowa win, but he pledges to stay in the race.

[KingSweden]

Nevada Caucuses - February 27, 2024

Brian Sandoval 47%
Tom Cotton 21%
Raul Labrador 20%
Ben Sasse 8%
Mick Mulvaney 4%

The Mulvaney/Sasse fades are for real, as both candidates have their worst showings yet on Sandoval's home turf. Labrador locks up the Mormon vote but fails to do much more damage to home-state hero Sandoval, who wins by a monster margin and continues to maintain a clear lead in delegates in the early proportional states, with the final proportional contest - Florida - in a week. Labrador drops out of the race and endorses Cotton at an event in Miami a few days later, while Mulvaney and Sasse both pledge to stick it out to Super Tuesday in late March.

[KingSweden]

Florida Primary - March 5, 2024

Brian Sandoval 38%
Tom Cotton 27%
Mick Mulvaney 20%
Ben Sasse 13%
Raul Labrador (write-in) 3%

A contest where Labrador (as a Puerto Rican) probably could have done well, Sandoval dominates amongst moderates, Hispanics and South Florida retires while Cotton streaks past the collapsing Mulvaney in Northern Florida, where the Southern-style conservatives rule. Still, Mulvaney and Sasse keep Cotton from consolidating the votes of these voters and potentially getting a game-changing win over Sandoval, who now looks to be on cruise control heading into Super Tuesday in three weeks. With neither Sasse nor Mulvaney seeming willing to drop out, can Cotton consolidate the right at this point to stop Sandoval from running away with the nomination?