Era of the New Majority

[Maxwell]

When did Portman drop out? What happened to that amazing Florida win?

[Maxwell]

Is this going to be a Democratic slobber fest?

He's writing a good timeline, and this is all you can come up with? Aren't you infatuated with Susan Collins because she's "above partisanship" or something?

[Maxwell]

Hanna losing probably means the rest of them lose too, considering he was unopposed this cycle. Great level of detail nevertheless.

[Maxwell]

Those Pennsylvania results hurt, but Cruz did surprisingly well in the state considering some of the results I've seen.

[Maxwell]

wow. all that's left is Tom Emmer. RIP Minnesota GOP.

[Maxwell]

It is extremely unlikely and practically impossible that Susana Martinez, the Republican governor of New Mexico will appoint Bill Richardson, a Democrat to Heinrich's seat. The only time a Governor appointed a member of the opposing party to the Senate in recent years was in 2007 when Wyoming governor Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat, appointed John Barrasso, a Republican. However, Freudenthal had no choice as per Wyoming state law, he was forced to chose between three people (all Republicans) presented to him by the Republican dominated state legislature and picked Barrasso by default because he was the most moderate of the three.

But this is not just any Democrat, it's Bill Richardson, who us Hispanic Republicans probably despise more than any Democrat for his comments he made about Ted Cruz hinting he is "not Hispanic" by his conservative politics.  I'm not a fan of Mr. Cruz at all but as a Hispanic Republican, it makes me cringe when I hear one of the most prominent Hispanic politicians in the country infer that in order to be "Hispanic," you must be a liberal Democrat as well. Thanks, Bill. So yes, I sure Martinez who made history as the nation's first Latina governor and just so happens to have an R next to her name loves these comments and will appoint Richardson to the Senate.

I feel a little sad reading this, because I know this timeline could be a lot better. This could probably even be the best timeline on the entire website if you just do not let your personal biases cloud the plausibility of this timeline. It's very plausible that 2016 will be a very good year for the Democrats. That being said, your TL takes that and puts it to an extreme. It's impossible the Democrats will take the House due to Republican gerrymandering, unless there's something really stupid the Republican congress does (and I mean not a shutdown like in 2013 but something along the lines of trying to impeach Obama which they repeatedly stated they won't do), or a resurgence of Blue Dogs or a combination of these things. However, to say that Democrats take the House based on Hillary coattails alone (which is based on what I read so far probably your most likely explanation) shows a lacking of American politics beyond belief. As I mentioned before, based on the shape of the American electorate, a lot of the votes that will put Clinton over the edge will come from Republican-leaning independents and moderate Republicans who are disillusioned by Cruz's divisive rhetoric, not voting for Clinton because they love her. As a result, they will vote for Republicans for congress (since their vote for president is not as much for Clinton as it is against Cruz) and a ton of Republicans in marginal districts that went for Clinton will win re-election. And Ed Royce losing re-election, seriously? I have family in that district, and don't be fooled by it's R+5 PVI, there's virtually no Democrats there. Royce is an insanely popular congressman and will have that district as long as he wants, end of story.

And If you really want Richardson to be a senator you know there's a Senate election in 2018...

I'm sorry you find the TL biased, Charles. I've tried to consider current trends in sketching out this TL and throw in "random" events like in real life and random upset wins, I.e. Chris Gibson surviving in NY in a D wave. D hackery is hardly my intention.

As for Richardson, my understanding is that the NM Governor is required to appoint someone of the same party. I was originally going to put Heather Wilson (R) in that seat. I figured Martinez would tap someone unlikely to run in 2018 to effect an open seat and help her party that way. I don't particularly care for Bill Richardson myself, I just couldn't think of anyone else who fits those requirements.

See that makes sense.

And most timelines are biased, stop being babies.

[Maxwell]

What is the margin on the New York City race?

[Maxwell]

I feel like Connecticut will follow the example of Oregon and Washington - nearly elect GOP Governors, but won't.

[Maxwell]

Iowa Caucus? The suspense man...

[Maxwell]

How are general election polls generally looking?

[Maxwell]

Lol @ Wayne Allyn Root being the Libertarian Nominee.

[Maxwell]

Lol @ Wayne Allyn Root being the Libertarian Nominee.

Unfortunately, I needed someone and Wikipedia didn't give me much at quick glance. I'm open to superior suggestions.

Nah he's likely. I'm just laughing at him as a person.

[Maxwell]

I'm not a sports person, so obviously the sports people have more insight on it, but I feel it takes a bit too much room. It's an interesting side thing though.

I'd also like to add that, though the Dem bench in OKC is weak, it is easily the least conservative area of Oklahoma. I could see that district flip in a Dem wave in about 10 years.

[Maxwell]

I'm amazed you've been able to stand going in this much depth. Any time I've tried to do something like this I just get tired. Good job.

[Maxwell]

What were the margin of the run off wins?

[Maxwell]

Who are the frontrunners for the Nevada Gubernatorial race?

[Maxwell]

What about potential 2024 Republicans?

Excellent update, btw.

[Maxwell]

Looking like Fulop is the Jimmy Carter of New Jersey.

[Maxwell]

How Republican are the two least Republican districts in Alabama now?

[Maxwell]

How Republican are the two least Republican districts in Alabama now?

Obama won AL-3 with about 53% of the vote in 2008, but it's white plurality so obviously very dependent on black turnout. The PVI here should be roughly Even or maybe R+1 by the early 2020s.

The other district AL-2 McCain won with about 52% of the vote, so roughly R+5 to R+6 by this point, with growth in Birmingham and by not containing Shelby County.

These are estimates off the top of my head, obviously.

Interesting, glad to see some competitive-ish Alabama districts.

[Maxwell]

Mead Treadwell as the conservative challenger to Lisa Murkowski striked me as an odd choice, but otherwise the Alaska results look interesting and I could definitely see occurring.

[Maxwell]

What about Ben Sasse? I always perceived him as a potential future candidate.

[Maxwell]

I like how you worked that in.

[Maxwell]

That's not especially surprising that Heinrich isn't doing too well - he didn't strike me as Presidential material.

[Maxwell]

Are there are any dark horses in the VP-stakes?