If a Canadian Federal election was held now

[Polkergeist]

Using the CBC-Evironics Poll whose results are here:

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/04/14/cbcpoll2050414.html

and also using the uniform swing method over the 5 regions the poll has used, I have projected what the House of Commons would look like based on the poll results.

also I only used decided voters and scales it up to 100 per cent using those figures

New Commons
      
Liberal           87   
Conservative 113   
NDP               45   
BQ                 64   
Oth                 1   

as for the seats changing hands.......

Atlantic Canada

Lib to Con
BONAVISTA—EXPLOITS (NL)

Lib to NDP
DARTMOUTH—COLE HARBOUR (NS)

Quebec

Lib to Con
PONTIAC

Lib to BQ
AHUNTSIC
BEAUCE
BOURASSA
BROME—MISSISQUOI
BROSSARD—LA PRAIRIE
GATINEAU
HONORÉ-MERCIER
HULL—AYLMER
JEANNE-LE BER
LAVAL—LES ÎLES
OUTREMONT
PAPINEAU

BQ to Con
LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT

Ontario

Lib to Con
ANCASTER—DUNDAS—FLAMBOROUGH—WESTDALE
BARRIE
BRAMPTON WEST
BRANT
BURLINGTON
CHATHAM–KENT—ESSEX
KITCHENER—CONESTOGA
MIDDLESEX—KENT—LAMBTON
NIPISSING—TIMISKAMING
NORTHUMBERLAND—QUINTE WEST
OTTAWA—ORLÉANS
OTTAWA WEST—NEPEAN
PARRY SOUND—MUSKOKA
ST CATHARINES
SIMCOE NORTH

Lib to NDP
ALGOMA—MANITOULIN—KAPUSKASING
HAMILTON EAST—STONEY CREEK
HAMILTON MOUNTAIN
KENORA
LONDON—FANSHAWE
NICKEL BELT
PARKDALE—HIGH PARK
THUNDER BAY—RAINY RIVER
THUNDER BAY—SUPERIOR NORTH
TRINITY—SPADINA
WELLAND

Con to NDP
OSHAWA

Prairies

Lib to Con
EDMONTON—BEAUMONT (AL)
EDMONTON CENTRE (AL)
CHARLESWOOD—ST JAMES (MAN)

Con to NDP
PALLISER (SASK)
REGINA—QU'APPELLE (SASK)
SASKATOON—ROSETOWN—BIGGAR (SASK)

BC

Lib to Con
NORTH VANCOUVER

Lib to NDP
ESQUIMALT—JUAN DE FUCA
VANCOUVER KINGSWAY
VANCOUVER CENTRE
VICTORIA

Con to NDP
NEWTON—NORTH DELTA
NEW WESTMINSTER—COQUITLAM
SOUTHERN INTERIOR
VANCOUVER ISLAND NORTH

Now a few riders to survey:

- I am aware of the flaws of the swing method ! This is just a guide.

- There are several ridings in Sask. that had Conservative independants last election, I took the votes for those candidates as Conservative votes for the purposes of projecting those ridings (REGINA—LUMSDEN—LAKE CENTRE &  SASKATOON—HUMBOLDT)

- I apologise for putting the seats in capitals, to save time this involved a lot of cutting and pasting.

Now I'll hand over to you guys for the commentary.

[Jake]

Bad news for the Conservatives. You catch the sitting party in a massive scandal, and still manage only to pick up 14 seats.

[Polkergeist]

Bad news for the Conservatives. You catch the sitting party in a massive scandal, and still manage only to pick up 14 seats.

Yeah and they went backwards in BC. Althought they would win all the seats in Alberta.

That being said they only went up 3 points from the last election in this poll and most of that was in a 10 point gain in Quebec where they are far from winning most seats, so they swing is wasted. most of the seats they won in ontario was because the libs went down rather that the Conservatives going up.

[Gabu]

Wait, wait... Conservatives winning seats in Quebec?

Scary thought.

[2952-0-0]

Wait, wait... Conservatives winning seats in Quebec?

Scary thought.

Scary. Oh and Gabu, don't worry. Our seat is gerrymandered for the Conservatives anyway. Let me tell you a secret: the combined NDP+Green vote in our riding was greater than Gary Lunn's vote. That's pathetic.

[Gabu]

Scary. Oh and Gabu, don't worry. Our seat is gerrymandered for the Conservatives anyway. Let me tell you a secret: the combined NDP+Green vote in our riding was greater than Gary Lunn's vote. That's pathetic.

Yeah, I know.  He would've lost too if it weren't for those damn Gulf Islands.  Oh well.

And I'd just have to move down the street to get into Victoria, too.  So close.

[2952-0-0]

Scary. Oh and Gabu, don't worry. Our seat is gerrymandered for the Conservatives anyway. Let me tell you a secret: the combined NDP+Green vote in our riding was greater than Gary Lunn's vote. That's pathetic.

Yeah, I know.  He would've lost too if it weren't for those damn Gulf Islands.  Oh well.

And I'd just have to move down the street to get into Victoria, too.  So close.

Mulroney won the Gordon Head wards and Lewis (the Green) did well on the Gulf Islands. I guess Lunn gets his support from those hicks on the Peninsula. And people like my mom.

[Gabu]

Scary. Oh and Gabu, don't worry. Our seat is gerrymandered for the Conservatives anyway. Let me tell you a secret: the combined NDP+Green vote in our riding was greater than Gary Lunn's vote. That's pathetic.

Yeah, I know.  He would've lost too if it weren't for those damn Gulf Islands.  Oh well.

And I'd just have to move down the street to get into Victoria, too.  So close.

Mulroney won the Gordon Head wards and Lewis (the Green) did well on the Gulf Islands. I guess Lunn gets his support from those hicks on the Peninsula. And people like my mom.

Oh, really?  I heard that Mulroney was leading until the Gulf Islands came in, during which point Lunn went into the lead.

Whatever the case, Mulroney won the place that I come from, so that's at least something for me.

[Hatman 🍁]

How is your riding gerrymandered? Inclusion of the Gulf Islands? Where else would they go? Nanaimo-Cowichan? I'm not sure...

Anyways, Poltergeist- you forgot the Territories. Western Arctic was won by the Liberals by 0.3% of the vote.

[Polkergeist]

Poltergeist- you forgot the Territories. Western Arctic was won by the Liberals by 0.1% of the vote.

Yeah, there was no polling o fthe territories done but if they followed the national trend then Western Arctic would go from Lib to NDP

[WMS]

So...what option is more likely?

A Conservative minority government?

A Liberal-NDP coalition?

Or something odd with the BQ?

[Hatman 🍁]

Conservative minority by far.  Although I am going to guess that by the time there is an election it will be too close to call.

[Gabu]

So...what option is more likely?

A Conservative minority government?

A Liberal-NDP coalition?

Or something odd with the BQ?

If the election was right now and the Conservatives had absolutely nothing to do with the election being called, then a Conservative minority would be likely.

However, around 47% of Canadians don't want an election purely because of this scandal, so it would be a very dangerous thing to do for the Conservatives to force an election.

[Dave from Michigan]

Your guys elections suck even with this scandal the conservatives can't get a majority.  Are you guys ever going to come to your senses and vote conservative.  Is it even possible for there ever to be a conservative government  any time in the next 100 years. If I'm not mistaken (I may be I don't know much about your government) Basically your parliament is left of center if you count the liberals, NDP,  and that stupid quebec party.  If I lived in Canada I would be upset that there were not competetive elections.  In Quebec if there was not Quebec party who would they vote for.  From what I hear it wouldn't be conservative, would it be mostly liberals or split with the NDP.

[Platypus]

A week is a long time in politics. In Australia, it looks impossible for the ALP to win for at least another 6 years, but the same stuff was being said before the coaltion won the 96 election with a massive majority (which got reigned in hugely in 98 but back out again in 2001).

[2952-0-0]

How is your riding gerrymandered? Inclusion of the Gulf Islands? Where else would they go? Nanaimo-Cowichan? I'm not sure...

Anyways, Poltergeist- you forgot the Territories. Western Arctic was won by the Liberals by 0.3% of the vote.

Suburbs in the south part of Saanich, hippie communes on the Gulf ISlands and lots of retirees.

[Gabu]

Are you guys ever going to come to your senses and vote conservative.

No, we will never, ever, ever vote Conserva- oh, wait, we had a Conservative minority in 1979 and two terms of a Conservative majority government from 1984 to 1993.

Is it even possible for there ever to be a conservative government  any time in the next 100 years.

Recent polls indicate that a Conservative minority is a real possibility, so... check back with us in the end of 2005.

If I lived in Canada I would be upset that there were not competetive elections.

The Conservatives won enough seats in the last election to let the Liberals only have a minority government, which is a good accomplishment if you consider that we just had three terms of Liberal majorities.  If you don't think our elections are competetive, I don't know what to tell you.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Don't get all upset... this too shall pass.  The Canadian center-right will be back and a potential surprise election may only open the door to future gains.

That having been said, Canada is divided a lot like our red/blue state concept, just with a few more liberal provinces than conservative ones.  In order for Conservatives in Canada to return to power, they will have to have leaders that are a little more like winners (Diefenbaker, Clark) and a little less like losers (Manning, Day).

Your guys elections suck even with this scandal the conservatives can't get a majority.  Are you guys ever going to come to your senses and vote conservative.  Is it even possible for there ever to be a conservative government  any time in the next 100 years. If I'm not mistaken (I may be I don't know much about your government) Basically your parliament is left of center if you count the liberals, NDP,  and that stupid quebec party.  If I lived in Canada I would be upset that there were not competetive elections.  In Quebec if there was not Quebec party who would they vote for.  From what I hear it wouldn't be conservative, would it be mostly liberals or split with the NDP.

[2952-0-0]

Don't get all upset... this too shall pass.  The Canadian center-right will be back and a potential surprise election may only open the door to future gains.

That having been said, Canada is divided a lot like our red/blue state concept, just with a few more liberal provinces than conservative ones.  In order for Conservatives in Canada to return to power, they will have to have leaders that are a little more like winners (Diefenbaker, Clark) and a little less like losers (Manning, Day).

Your guys elections suck even with this scandal the conservatives can't get a majority.  Are you guys ever going to come to your senses and vote conservative.  Is it even possible for there ever to be a conservative government  any time in the next 100 years. If I'm not mistaken (I may be I don't know much about your government) Basically your parliament is left of center if you count the liberals, NDP,  and that stupid quebec party.  If I lived in Canada I would be upset that there were not competetive elections.  In Quebec if there was not Quebec party who would they vote for.  From what I hear it wouldn't be conservative, would it be mostly liberals or split with the NDP.

Yep. Possible. But with a leader like Harper they have zero chance at winning a majority at this point.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Exactly.

Hopefully Conservatives in Canada will realize that they need a leader who can take them to the majority - none other than Belinda Stronach!!!

[Gabu]

Yep. Possible. But with a leader like Harper they have zero chance at winning a majority at this point.

The main problem with Harper is that nothing he ever does really appeals to anyone who wasn't already voting Conservative.

[Gabu]

Canadians should be absolutely outraged at the Liberal government and the Liberal Party of Canada, and should send them packing big time. 

As it turns out, the Liberals have been wallowing in squalor and scandal since 1993.  Chretien is a disgrace.  Martin is a pompous windbag who distorts and twists the truth at every turn.

I hope an election is held as soon as possible, and that Canadians will have the sense to elect a Conservative government, and put Harper in charge to clean up this mess.

I believe the Conservatives will win the election.  Canadians have to root out the cause of this scandal and corruption, and that root cause is the Liberal Party of Canada. 

Don't you think we should at least wait until testimony at the Gomery Inquiry is complete?

[Hatman 🍁]

Canadians should be absolutely outraged at the Liberal government and the Liberal Party of Canada, and should send them packing big time. 

As it turns out, the Liberals have been wallowing in squalor and scandal since 1993.  Chretien is a disgrace.  Martin is a pompous windbag who distorts and twists the truth at every turn.

I hope an election is held as soon as possible, and that Canadians will have the sense to elect a Conservative government, and put Harper in charge to clean up this mess.

I believe the Conservatives will win the election.  Canadians have to root out the cause of this scandal and corruption, and that root cause is the Liberal Party of Canada. 

Harper would make a terrible PM. I agree with htmldon, we need Belinda! She has my vote.

Other people who I wouldn't mind seeing as Leader of the Tories are Jim Prentice, Helena Guergis, Peter McKay, Gerald Keddy, or James Moore.

Belinda would deffinately get my vote as long as the Tory candidate in my riding was aqequate- which has been a rarety.

[2952-0-0]

Yep. Possible. But with a leader like Harper they have zero chance at winning a majority at this point.

The main problem with Harper is that nothing he ever does really appeals to anyone who wasn't already voting Conservative.

Um hm. If an election were held today, I think the Conservatives win a minoirty but cannot appeal to any of the other parties to form a stable govt. At this time the Liberal Party gets someone else new (Copps? I'd support her big time) and once the Conservative govt collapses, which inevitably happens within a few months, the Liberals go back in with someone who isn't a scandalous douchebag.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't Copps leave the Liberals over that messy primary business?