How many parishes will Landrieu win in the runoff?
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  How many parishes will Landrieu win in the runoff?
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Author Topic: How many parishes will Landrieu win in the runoff?  (Read 2179 times)
KCDem
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« on: November 18, 2014, 09:52:31 PM »

I'm starting to see this turning into a 30+ point rout. Everyone is demoralized and the whites are done with Landrieu. Blacks aren't turning out and even her brother's vaunted turnout machine was unimpressive on November 4. I think she wins Orleans, St John the Baptist and East Carroll narrowly. Think the 2010 senate race map:



but with worse turnout.

I wouldn't be shocked by the following result:
Cassidy 65%
Landrieu 35%

Discuss with maps.
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2014, 09:57:11 PM »

Do we have to...
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2014, 10:01:08 PM »

Poor Miles.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2014, 10:11:23 PM »

Eh, I think Cassidy will win now that Keystone has failed. But I think he'll underperform relative to expectations. I expect Landrieu to win 45-48%, so a considerable number of parishes. But I think the white vote will come in at 25-28%  for her, a significant uptick from 18%. But I don't think it works out for her.

The Keystone fight, IMO, would have helped push her to the 30-35% level she needed. Without that fight, I don't think she wins. Her skill and Cassidy's relative unskilled nature as a campaigner has her at 45-48%, but not at the 50+1 number she needs. She probably loses North Louisiana (Protestant), runs well in South Louisiana (more Catholic, right?) and dominates New Orleans and surrounding areas. But she loses just enough parishes in central Louisiana and southeast Louisiana to lose.
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2014, 11:04:54 PM »

I'm expecting Landrieu to get 43-46%. She'll carry all the parishes she won on Nov. 4, and likely a few more.
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Bigby
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2014, 11:08:53 PM »

I'm expecting Landrieu to get 43-46%. She'll carry all the parishes she won on Nov. 4, and likely a few more.

Why do you expect her to perform as strongly as she did on Nov. 4?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2014, 11:15:47 PM »

Only Orleans, but she'll win it by much more than she did (# total votes) than in November. Combining this with other parishes across the state, I'm going to predict that Cassidy wins by roughly a 51-49 margin.
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jfern
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2014, 11:19:52 PM »

Only Orleans, but she'll win it by much more than she did (# total votes) than in November. Combining this with other parishes across the state, I'm going to predict that Cassidy wins by roughly a 51-49 margin.

That's not a real prediction, right?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2014, 11:20:08 PM »

All Obama Parishes (10), and a few more...

Assumption
Pointe Coupee
St. Landry
Bienville
Morehouse

so 15, about.

I'm expecting Landrieu to get 43-46%. She'll carry all the parishes she won on Nov. 4, and likely a few more.

That doesn't make sense. If the vast majority of Maness votes go to Cassidy, and all the other D's were no-names, why would she gain counties?  
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« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2014, 11:20:34 PM »

I'm expecting Landrieu to get 43-46%. She'll carry all the parishes she won on Nov. 4, and likely a few more.

Why do you expect her to perform as strongly as she did on Nov. 4?

Because she improved from the general to the runoff in 1996 and 2002, and because control of the senate is already decided. (Landrieu is no longer 'a vote for Harry Reid to remain Majority Leader').
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Flake
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« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2014, 11:22:42 PM »

Only Orleans, but she'll win it by much more than she did (# total votes) than in November. Combining this with other parishes across the state, I'm going to predict that Cassidy wins by roughly a 51-49 margin.

Carrying only Orleans will not lead to a 51-49 defeat, that would easily be a landslide loss.



This is Vitter's 19 point win in 2010.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2014, 11:41:27 PM »

I still think this one is going to turn out to be a lot closer than most folks expect, somewhere around 53/47 for Cassidy.

Landrieu should win a good number of parishes.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2014, 11:43:17 PM »

Only Orleans, but she'll win it by much more than she did (# total votes) than in November. Combining this with other parishes across the state, I'm going to predict that Cassidy wins by roughly a 51-49 margin.

Carrying only Orleans will not lead to a 51-49 defeat, that would easily be a landslide loss.


She'll be close enough in almost every other parish to make it remotely possible.
This is Vitter's 19 point win in 2010.
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« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2014, 11:49:32 PM »

Only Orleans, but she'll win it by much more than she did (# total votes) than in November. Combining this with other parishes across the state, I'm going to predict that Cassidy wins by roughly a 51-49 margin.

Carrying only Orleans will not lead to a 51-49 defeat, that would easily be a landslide loss.


This is Vitter's 19 point win in 2010.
She'll be close enough in almost every other parish to make it remotely possible.
If she's carrying New Orleans by some huge margin, she'll win a bunch of other parishes too. Just the way things work.

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shua
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« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2014, 12:45:56 AM »

my prediction: 14 parishes, at 46% or so.  There will be some depressed turnout among Democrats compared to November, but at the same time some those who voted for Maness will not show up for Cassidy.  the map looks like this:
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2014, 12:55:10 AM »

How do you make the maps of individual states?
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shua
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« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2014, 02:19:26 AM »

How do you make the maps of individual states?

I download the image of a state from this site and edit it on sumopaint.com
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2014, 03:24:21 AM »

Cassidy + Maness equaled about 55% of the total vote in the jungle primary.

It's doubtful that Maness' support is going anywhere other than to Cassidy. It's not like the moderate Republican fell to the conservative Republican candidate there. It's very unlikely the Maness voters vote Landrieu.

With the DSCC out of the race for a while now and runoffs in two strong-R Congressional districts in LA-5 and LA-6, I could see Landrieu losing by 10-15 points, easily.

We'll probably get a better idea when we get more polling points in the upcoming weeks, but this race should be nothing other than Likely Republican at this point.
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memphis
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« Reply #18 on: November 19, 2014, 10:12:43 AM »

Only somebody from the North could think that blacks only live in the big city. East Carroll Parish is 68% black, which is even more than Orleans. I'm pretty sure Landrieu will win that one too.
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« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2014, 11:26:15 AM »

Landreiu will get low black turnout, but some may turn out for her. We'll see. I see here winning 20 parishes.
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Timothy87
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« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2014, 01:22:58 PM »

Eh, I think Cassidy will win now that Keystone has failed. But I think he'll underperform relative to expectations. I expect Landrieu to win 45-48%, so a considerable number of parishes. But I think the white vote will come in at 25-28%  for her, a significant uptick from 18%. But I don't think it works out for her.

The Keystone fight, IMO, would have helped push her to the 30-35% level she needed. Without that fight, I don't think she wins. Her skill and Cassidy's relative unskilled nature as a campaigner has her at 45-48%, but not at the 50+1 number she needs. She probably loses North Louisiana (Protestant), runs well in South Louisiana (more Catholic, right?) and dominates New Orleans and surrounding areas. But she loses just enough parishes in central Louisiana and southeast Louisiana to lose.

Roflmao
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Miles
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« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2014, 01:37:14 PM »

Landreiu will get low black turnout, but some may turn out for her. We'll see. I see here winning 20 parishes.

Based on...
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rbt48
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« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2014, 08:56:13 PM »

I'll go with 14 parishes and Cassidy 56% to 44% for Landrieu in the runoff.
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bgwah
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« Reply #23 on: November 26, 2014, 01:10:10 AM »

The combined Democratic vote total in 1996 was 43.5% in the first round. It was 43.4% in 2014.

Not that I think she has a chance this time. Just an interesting observation!
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shua
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« Reply #24 on: November 26, 2014, 01:13:24 AM »

my prediction: 14 parishes, at 46% or so.  There will be some depressed turnout among Democrats compared to November, but at the same time some those who voted for Maness will not show up for Cassidy.  the map looks like this:


I'm now thinking she may do a bit worse than this.
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