How many parishes will Landrieu win in the runoff?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm expecting Landrieu to get 43-46%. She'll carry all the parishes she won on Nov. 4, and likely a few more.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm expecting Landrieu to get 43-46%. She'll carry all the parishes she won on Nov. 4, and likely a few more.

Why do you expect her to perform as strongly as she did on Nov. 4?

Because she improved from the general to the runoff in 1996 and 2002, and because control of the senate is already decided. (Landrieu is no longer 'a vote for Harry Reid to remain Majority Leader').

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Only Orleans, but she'll win it by much more than she did (# total votes) than in November. Combining this with other parishes across the state, I'm going to predict that Cassidy wins by roughly a 51-49 margin.

Carrying only Orleans will not lead to a 51-49 defeat, that would easily be a landslide loss.


This is Vitter's 19 point win in 2010.

She'll be close enough in almost every other parish to make it remotely possible.

If she's carrying New Orleans by some huge margin, she'll win a bunch of other parishes too. Just the way things work.