The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,272
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« on: November 18, 2014, 10:11:23 PM » |
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Eh, I think Cassidy will win now that Keystone has failed. But I think he'll underperform relative to expectations. I expect Landrieu to win 45-48%, so a considerable number of parishes. But I think the white vote will come in at 25-28% for her, a significant uptick from 18%. But I don't think it works out for her.
The Keystone fight, IMO, would have helped push her to the 30-35% level she needed. Without that fight, I don't think she wins. Her skill and Cassidy's relative unskilled nature as a campaigner has her at 45-48%, but not at the 50+1 number she needs. She probably loses North Louisiana (Protestant), runs well in South Louisiana (more Catholic, right?) and dominates New Orleans and surrounding areas. But she loses just enough parishes in central Louisiana and southeast Louisiana to lose.
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