Politico ranks the relative likelihood of the GOP candidates running for the nom

[Mr. Morden]

Likelihood to run, according to Politico:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2016-elections-republicans-to-watch-113014.html?hp=t2_r

1) Paul
2) Cruz
3) Jindal
4) Perry
5) Christie
6) Rubio
7) Santorum
8 ) Carson
9) Walker
10) Bush
11) Kasich
12) Portman
13) Pence
14) Fiorina
15) Bolton
16) Thune
17) Ryan
18) Huckabee
19) Graham
20) Romney

So, Pataki doesn't make the list?  The fact that he's already faked us out twice means that we shouldn't take his trial balloon seriously?

Also, I think Bolton should be higher.  It's true that the media ignores him, but that just makes him more likely to run.  Carson and Huckabee and the like can juice book sales by pretending to run for president but then not going through with it.  Bolton actually has to run in order for people to realize that he exists.

The top 10:

[Bull Moose Base]

--is it a ranking? Seems looser than that maybe


Agree on Bolton.

Carson is basically already running.

Thune is higher than Huckabee? Huckabee passed on last cycle. His behavior then was completely different. I'd put him top 10.

Bush sounds slightly above 50/50 to run and that would likely mean no Rubio or Portmam.

Romney is doing more to suggest he'll run than Pence and Ryan are.

Perry's odds have to be lower because of the logistics of his legal problems.

Jindal has been running basically but the chance he pulls a Barbour and gives up before getting in are too high to rank him so high here.

[Mister Mets]

The list seems to be a mix of who will run, and who will be significant.

My hunch is that Fiorina is likelier than Bush, but she won't be a top-tier candidate.
Santorum and Carson also seem likelier to run than Rubio, even if Rubio's odds of being the eventual nominee are better.

From what I've seen, Portman seems to be making definitive moves towards running.

Thune's interest is a bigger surprise.

[dmmidmi]

Most of the people from about 11 on down seem like they would be running in hopes of becoming a VP selection. Kasich, Portman, Pence, Thune, and Graham have qualifications that could put them into consideration, but none of them have the gravitas that would make them a real Presidential contender.

[Mr. Morden]

--is it a ranking? Seems looser than that maybe

The story is subtitled "Our list of the GOP’s 2016 contenders, ranked by how likely they are to run."

[Vega]

Carson should be at least in the top 5.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jindal at #3? LOL. And Huckabee should be above Fiorina,  not below.

[IceSpear]

Jindal at #3? LOL. And Huckabee should be above Fiorina,  not below.

What's wrong with that? This is based on the probability that they run, not that they win.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jindal at #3? LOL. And Huckabee should be above Fiorina,  not below.

What's wrong with that? This is based on the probability that they run, not that they win.

Since when is Jindal more likely to run than Carson (the latter has more or less announced he's running) , and since when is Fiorina seriously considering it?

[IceSpear]

Jindal at #3? LOL. And Huckabee should be above Fiorina,  not below.

What's wrong with that? This is based on the probability that they run, not that they win.

Since when is Jindal more likely to run than Carson (the latter has more or less announced he's running) , and since when is Fiorina seriously considering it?

Jindal's basically been running for a while now as well. I think a lot of people suspect Huckabee will just attention whore to sell some books then bow out like he did in 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

It's also amusing how Peter King has fallen off the face of 2016 speculation after his statement last year that "right now I am running for president":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=178907.msg3861781#msg3861781