Which scenario is more likely in 2016?

[Mr. Illini]

I actually think that it is more likely that she wins Missouri. She's a perfect candidate for Florida and remember that Missouri only voted for McCain very narrowly (and Hillary is a much better candidate for the state than Obama).

[Rockefeller GOP]

Probably winning Missouri.  Not as convinced as others that the midterms spell doom for Clinton in MO, WV, AR, KY, etc., especially against a Republican who's a bad fit for the area.

[Mr. Illini]

Probably winning Missouri.  Not as convinced as others that the midterms spell doom for Clinton in MO, WV, AR, KY, etc., especially against a Republican who's a bad fit for the area.

MO+AR =/= KY+WV

If there's anything that the midterms made clear, it is that the coal issue has turned WV and KY solid GOP. Let's keep them out of this.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Probably winning Missouri.  Not as convinced as others that the midterms spell doom for Clinton in MO, WV, AR, KY, etc., especially against a Republican who's a bad fit for the area.

MO+AR =/= KY+WV

If there's anything that the midterms made clear, it is that the coal issue has turned WV and KY solid GOP. Let's keep them out of this.

Yet KY has an extremely popular Democratic governor and one legislature controlled by Democrats and WV has another popular Democratic governor and an even more popular Democratic Senator - all of them are pro-coal.  I'm not saying Hillary will win either, but I just don't think they're as "dead" as most do, especially in a non-GOP wave year with two extra-ordinary Republican candidates (McConnel is a proven incumbent who people voted for because they knew he'd have clout and Capito is an extremely popular representative), where voters largely voted on their approval of the President (who will be gone in 2016).  I don't think people were saying these states were gone for the GOP in '08 when Democrats swept into office throughout the region...

Democrats control their own destiny in these states regarding coal, and I don't think Hillary will win either or maybe even any.  However, the local Democratic Parties are not dead.

[Mister Mets]

It's much more likely for a Democratic candidate to lose a close state than to win a state Obama couldn't get under very favorable circumstances.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

My feeling is that Missouri is going to shift further left depending on how the dust settles in the Ferguson incident. So option 1.

[TDAS04]

Option 1, especially if Jeb is not the GOP nominee. 

[ShamDam]

Option 2. While I think it's more likely than Hillary wins the GE than the GOP, she wouldn't win Missouri except in a landslide, whereas any Republican victory involves winning Florida. And I don't believe that Hillary winning a landslide is more likely than the Republican winning at all at this time.

[Person Man]

Option 2. While I think it's more likely than Hillary wins the GE than the GOP, she wouldn't win Missouri except in a landslide, whereas any Republican victory involves winning Florida. And I don't believe that Hillary winning a landslide is more likely than the Republican winning at all at this time.

That and the fact that Missouri no longer delivers and that Florida always "almost" delivers.

[Lief 🗽]

As I've said before, the presidential year demographic math is very, very difficult for Republicans in Florida. They've basically maxed out with white voters at this point and will need to win back Hispanics.

[Mister Mets]

One factor to keep in mind is that Clinton can win without Florida.

So one way of looking at is whether you think the odds of a Clinton blowout win are better than the combined odds of a narrow Clinton win, a narrow Clinton loss and a significant Clinton loss.

[Mehmentum]

One factor to keep in mind is that Clinton can win without Florida.

So one way of looking at is whether you think the odds of a Clinton blowout win are better than the combined odds of a narrow Clinton win, a narrow Clinton loss and a significant Clinton loss.

That assumes that 2016 repeats the patterns of 2012 and 2008.  That would be the equivalent of saying that 2008 would mirror 2004 and 2000, or that 2000 would be similar to 1996 and 1992.  The elections and re-election map of a president is always very similar, but big changes happen in those elections in which new presidents are elected.

[Suburbia]

Clinton winning Missouri. It's a classic, Midwestern state that can flip in political enviornment.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Can't believe it's tied! Hillary will probably win FL, but she could lose it in a poor environment. Hillary is not going to win MO against any Republican except Cruz, and even then it's going to be a 2008 margin of victory for either of them.

[Xing]

Even though Clinton is strong in Florida right now, I could see her narrowly losing it in a close race. Maybe it's not likely, but it's much more likely than a win in Missouri. I don't think Clinton will win Missouri unless she tops 360 EV. I don't think she'll win AR, KY, or WV period.

[IceSpear]

I could see her winning Missouri against multiple Republicans, but only losing Florida against a couple. So option 1.

[Mister Mets]

One factor to keep in mind is that Clinton can win without Florida.

So one way of looking at is whether you think the odds of a Clinton blowout win are better than the combined odds of a narrow Clinton win, a narrow Clinton loss and a significant Clinton loss.

That assumes that 2016 repeats the patterns of 2012 and 2008.  That would be the equivalent of saying that 2008 would mirror 2004 and 2000, or that 2000 would be similar to 1996 and 1992.  The elections and re-election map of a president is always very similar, but big changes happen in those elections in which new presidents are elected.

I don't really see how Clinton wins Missouri without it being a blowout.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Option 2. While I think it's more likely than Hillary wins the GE than the GOP, she wouldn't win Missouri except in a landslide, whereas any Republican victory involves winning Florida. And I don't believe that Hillary winning a landslide is more likely than the Republican winning at all at this time.

[ElectionsGuy]

option 2, easily.