Hillary advisor: Bush-Portman ticket could doom Dems in 2016

[Devils30]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/21/clinton-adviser-bush-portman-ticket-could-doom-dems-in-2016.html

I really think Bush is being way overhyped by the media. Not sure why people think Latinos and northern whites are desiring a return to the Bush years of recessions and unneeded wars. Can't say Bush/Portman would exactly inspire excitement about Rs either.

"If Ohio, Colorado, and Florida were lost to Democrats, a path to victory would include deeply conservative but trending Democratic states like Georgia, Ickes added."

Not quite!Here is a 270-268 Democratic victory, although I think Colorado and even Florida could still go blue. Jeb isn't really running strong in the few CO polls so far and the midterm win for Gardner was by less than 2%, doesn't happen with presidential turnout.

[Ljube]

Bull!

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Luckily for Hillary Jeb has no chance to survive the 2016 primary.

[henster]

She needs to worrying about the possibility of a Walker/Martinez ticket which I think is very likely. Kasich is probably the most formidable Republican but unlikely to make it past the primaries, Jeb is just not happening.

[Person Man]

Bush would definitely do better in bigger eastern states against Clinton, he could lose all the smaller swing states and still have a chance.

[Likely Voter]

If by some miracle a pro-path to citizenship Bush made it through the primaries and picked the pro gay marriage Portman, then yes that wold be a strong GE ticket. Clinton could pick one of the VA Senators and then you could have a weird situation where FL,VA and OH (where most of the money in 2012 was spent) all moved out of the tipping point state category and the fight would be for CO, IA, NH, NV, WI and maybe NC (depending on how AAs trend).

[Lief 🗽]

No, it would not. It would doom Republican candidates for congress and state legislatures across the country though, as the Republican base would not turn out for a pro-common core, pro-amnesty, pro-gay marriage ticket.

[JRP1994]

Jeb ≠ George

[GLPman]

She needs to worrying about the possibility of a Walker/Martinez ticket which I think is very likely. Kasich is probably the most formidable Republican but unlikely to make it past the primaries, Jeb is just not happening.

[IceSpear]

Jeb may be the most formidable just because everyone besides him starts in a deep hole in a must win state for the GOP (FL).

Still, his political acumen is vastly overrated. If Hillary's book tour showed that she was "rusty", then Jeb's screw ups while campaigning for Tillis in NC shows that he's corroded.

[IceSpear]

No, it would not. It would doom Republican candidates for congress and state legislatures across the country though, as the Republican base would not turn out for a pro-common core, pro-amnesty, pro-gay marriage ticket.

Eh...I think they'd still turn out. Republicans always do. They turned out in massive numbers to vote for the architect of Obamacare, after all.

[Maxwell]

Jeb ≠ George

Yes. He's less electable, and not just in a primary sense. He's dull, but at the same time, he has his brothers unintelligent appearance. He reeks of elitism. He's not going to rile up GOP base voters and he's not going to get anyone from across the aisle to vote for him because he's not convincing. The GOP thinking Jeb Bush is the guy who is going to lead their party is why the party is in such dissary in spite of huge midterm electoral victories. The GOP can definitely do worse than Jeb Bush, but they can also do better.

The idea that conservatives are less electable than moderates is basically incorrect. Jeb's less electable than the pundits think.

[porky88]

Republicans will want to make 2016 a referendum on President Obama. I think a Bush vs. Clinton matchup is a referendum on the last names. The media will cover it as so, overshadowing even Obama. I don't think that bolds well for Jeb Bush, and I think every Clinton advisory knows it. They're trying to play up the guy they're most confident they can beat.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ickes's job is to worry. I doubt he or any other Hillary advisor will ever say "we aren't worried at all, it's in the bag".

[Person Man]

The tough part about this map is that this will not be a path to victory after the 2020 elections.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So we know who not to run in 2016 then.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Republicans will want to make 2016 a referendum on President Obama. I think a Bush vs. Clinton matchup is a referendum on the last names. The media will cover it as so, overshadowing even Obama. I don't think that bolds well for Jeb Bush, and I think every Clinton advisory knows it. They're trying to play up the guy they're most confident they can beat.

I agree. Nominee Bush takes the dynasty question completely off the table. (Now you can choose which dynasty you want!) A Bush nomination just begs for endless Bill vs. Shrub comparisons. And best of all, Bush is far too moderate for the frothing right-wingnut of the Republican Party. With some luck, a Bush nomination will get a strong conservative 3rd party run.

[King]

Lol

[Mehmentum]

I love how apparently the Republicans best path to victory is to nominate candidates from the two biggest swing states, just so they can win them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hilary is playing the expectations game so that she win have just enough to win on election night. But, if she believes she cant win, she wont run. But she is gonna run, enough said.

[Mister Mets]

I love how apparently the Republicans best path to victory is to nominate candidates from the two biggest swing states, just so they can win them.

There's another aspect to it, in that someone who can appeal to one swing state should be able to run fairly well in another.

Technically you're criticizing Republicans for something a Democrat said.

[Linus Van Pelt]

This is, actually, not a good sign at all.

One of the less likable aspects of the Clintons - and one respect in which they have been clearly different from Obama - is their tendency to surround themselves with these Dick Morris/Mark Penn-type advisers who are convinced that the Democratic Party is in a naturally losing position, based on some vague analysis of swing states they pulled out of nowhere, and the only way out is a basically content-free campaign focused on some magical slice of centrist swing voters. This story suggests that some of these people are still around in positions of influence.

[Person Man]

This is, actually, not a good sign at all.

One of the less likable aspects of the Clintons - and one respect in which they have been clearly different from Obama - is their tendency to surround themselves with these Dick Morris/Mark Penn-type advisers who are convinced that the Democratic Party is in a naturally losing position, based on some vague analysis of swing states they pulled out of nowhere, and the only way out is a basically content-free campaign focused on some magical slice of centrist swing voters. This story suggests that some of these people are still around in positions of influence.

That kind of thinking could help with conservative minorities that stayed home or voted Republican. On the other hand, we need to make sure that college kids don't "forget" to vote. That's why Udall lost...there were like 2,000 people at CSU and 15,000 borderland Hispanics that didn't come through.

[IceSpear]

This is, actually, not a good sign at all.

One of the less likable aspects of the Clintons - and one respect in which they have been clearly different from Obama - is their tendency to surround themselves with these Dick Morris/Mark Penn-type advisers who are convinced that the Democratic Party is in a naturally losing position, based on some vague analysis of swing states they pulled out of nowhere, and the only way out is a basically content-free campaign focused on some magical slice of centrist swing voters. This story suggests that some of these people are still around in positions of influence.

A few days ago the entire media and many Atlas posters were saying Hillary's team was crazy for thinking they could put IN, MO, AZ, etc. in play, so it seems like she can't win no matter what she does.

"Wow, this DLC acolyte Hillary is ALREADY triangulating and running scared? We can't deal with someone who is always on a defensive posture and trying to appeal to mythical swing voters rather than turn out the base. Where did she get this horrible advice, Dick Morris? Elizabeth Warren for president! She'll be able to take our message onto traditionally Republican turf!"

"Wow, this arrogant narcissist seriously thinks she can win states like Arizona and Missouri?! Such hubris! Everyone knows that Obama's performance is the absolute ceiling for any Democrat ever. While Hillary is chasing fools gold, the crucial states will slip between her fingers and we'll lose the election! Elizabeth Warren for president! At least she'll keep her eyes on the ball."

[IceSpear]

This is, actually, not a good sign at all.

One of the less likable aspects of the Clintons - and one respect in which they have been clearly different from Obama - is their tendency to surround themselves with these Dick Morris/Mark Penn-type advisers who are convinced that the Democratic Party is in a naturally losing position, based on some vague analysis of swing states they pulled out of nowhere, and the only way out is a basically content-free campaign focused on some magical slice of centrist swing voters. This story suggests that some of these people are still around in positions of influence.

A few days ago the entire media and many Atlas posters were saying Hillary's team was crazy for thinking they could put IN, MO, AZ, etc. in play, so it seems like she can't win no matter what she does.

"Wow, this DLC acolyte Hillary is ALREADY triangulating and running scared? We can't deal with someone who is always on a defensive posture and trying to appeal to mythical swing voters rather than turn out the base. Where did she get this horrible advice, Dick Morris? Elizabeth Warren for president! She'll be able to take our message onto traditionally Republican turf!"

"Wow, this arrogant narcissist seriously thinks she can win states like Arizona and Missouri?! Such hubris! Everyone knows that Obama's performance is the absolute ceiling for any Democrat ever. While Hillary is chasing fools gold, the crucial states will slip between her fingers and we'll lose the election! Elizabeth Warren for president! At least she'll keep her eyes on the ball."

Yes, now one poster = the entire Atlas forum and the media combined.

Your persecution complex over Hillary is ridiculous.

It was obviously hyperbole, but the fact remains that many people work backwards from the universal truth of "Hillary is always wrong".