Ceilings and floors

[Mr. Illini]

It's tough to tell exactly what the 2016 maps will look like now (who could have gotten Obama's 2008 map relatively accurate in 2006?), but one thing we can say with good certainty are the ceilings and floors. Gimme your maps.

Democratic floor - 206 votes

Democratic ceiling - 399 votes

Republican floor (inverse Democratic ceiling) - 139 votes

Republican ceiling (inverse of Democratic floor) - 332 votes

[Mehmentum]

I'm iffy on Arkansas, but so far Hillary is doing well in the polls there, so I'll give it to her.  Montana would go for the right Democrat, but Hillary isn't that candidate.

I would put Minnesota as a potential pick up, but I'm still skeptical.  It hasn't gone Republican in 38 years. New Mexico is contingent upon the Republicans genuinely appealing to Latinos (which doesn't seem likely, but is possible).

[Ljube]

Seems right to me.

[IceSpear]

I agree with both of the OPs maps, except put MN on the floor and take MT off the ceiling.

[Person Man]

My take-

The Democrat's ceiling is probably where they get Obama's numbers with minorities. Say 30% turnout and they vote 77% D and with Gore/Kerry/Obama-Colorado/California numbers with whites...say 45% of 70%. That gives you 55% of the vote. Say a strong right-libertarian takes 1% of the vote and minor activists take .5% of the vote. That gives you 55-43.5. That'll probably give you a map like this.

It would just be enough to take back Missouri. Maybe instead of picking off Indiana, Arizona, Montana and Georgia could be picked off. I think Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee and West Virginia and even South Carolina might see 45 or 46% D and Mississippi, Texas and Louisiana about 44%. The Dakotas and Alaska might get there, too.

I could see Colorado, Virginia and Nevada getting double digits and Florida and Ohio getting close. Maybe Illinois would go 60%?

For Republicans, I can see them emulating 2014 in a presidential year...maybe even getting another percent. They were up 6.5% and maybe they can get to 8%. Given a smaller Nader-like candidate that takes 1% of the vote, I see them getting 53-1.5-45.5. Another way of looking at it is that they get Kerry/Gore like minority numbers and adjusted turnout and a white electorate like 2012/14. Maybe they get 61% of 73% and 30% of 27% or 53.5% of the vote and are able to keep democrats to 45%. Basically, they add moderately socially liberal libertarian leaning whites and moderate minorities to their coalition.

 

I think Republicans get to 47% in Illinois, 48 or 49% in Washington, New Jersey, Maine, Oregon and get to 50% in Minnesota and New Mexico, 51% in Michigan and between 52-53 in Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. They probably get about 55ish in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Like 57-58 in Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Arizona. They make the low-to-mid forties in Southern New England and California. All the Clinton-not-Obama states probably flirt with or break 60.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Republican floor/Democratic ceiling:

Republican ceiling/Democratic floor:

[pbrower2a]

Democratic floor - 232 votes

Minnesota is ineleastic in the extreme; the GOP has really messed up in Pennsylvania.

Democratic ceiling - 385 votes

Montana isn't going D for President anytime soon. Indiana in 2008 may be a one-time fluke.

Republican floor (inverse Democratic ceiling) - 153 votes

Republican ceiling (inverse of Democratic floor) - 306 votes

[/quote]

See what I said of Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democratic Ceiling: 405-133:

Of these, the closest wins would be in Arkansas, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, and NE-2, in that order, all of which would be within 2 points.

Republican Ceiling: 360-178:

Of these, the closest wins would be in Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, Michigan, and Minnesota, in that order, all of which would be within 2 points.