Would Bill Daley have won Illinois?

[President Johnson]

I think Bill Daley would have won Illinois by a close margin against Rauner. Any thoughts?

[IceSpear]

No

[Maxwell]

Nah, the type of campaign he was running at that point in time, he would've lost to Pat Quinn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was Madigan race to lose at this point, either Lisa or Vallas will be the nominee in 2018, and this will be like Pa of 2014, because it was all about Quinn this election. The next one will be for redistricting and we don't want to give that up to the G O P next time.

[Vega]

Nah. He actually seems pretty dumb, his entire tenure as COS in the Obama Administration was pretty bad.

[Mr. Illini]

He absolutely would have. Pat Quinn lost this for being Pat Quinn. A generic D (which Daley very much is) wins against Rauner.

[IceSpear]

He absolutely would have. Pat Quinn lost this for being Pat Quinn. A generic D (which Daley very much is) wins against Rauner.

Wasn't Daley so incompetent that Quinn was going to beat him in the primary handily? I could be wrong about this, but I thought that was the buzz at the time.

[Mister Mets]

I could imagine him doing a little bit better, but there are some unknowns. It was a cycle in which Republicans won open races in Massachusetts and Maryland, and came close in Vermont and Rhode Island.

Another thing to keep in mind is that this was Daley's last realistic shot at being Governor. I can't find polling data to suggest he was the underdog in the primary, so I'm wondering why he chose to drop out. It seems likely his reasons for leaving the race would have meant he was unable to win a General Election campaign.

[President Johnson]

He absolutely would have. Pat Quinn lost this for being Pat Quinn. A generic D (which Daley very much is) wins against Rauner.

Why was Quinn disliked so much? He has a proven progressive record. Medicare expansion, gay marriage, environemental protection, minimum wage, increased eduction funding and he even cut spending. And last but not least, he handled the situation after Blogo's impeachment pretty well.

I heard that Quinn had a difficult relationship with State Legislators (of his own party). Might that be a reason? Or the economy? California for example, another deep blue state, has economical difficulties as well, but Brown handily won.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

He absolutely would have. Pat Quinn lost this for being Pat Quinn. A generic D (which Daley very much is) wins against Rauner.

Why was Quinn disliked so much? He has a proven progressive record. Medicare expansion, gay marriage, environemental protection, minimum wage, increased eduction funding and he even cut spending. And last but not least, he handled the situation after Blogo's impeachment pretty well.

I heard that Quinn had a difficult relationship with State Legislators (of his own party). Might that be a reason? Or the economy? California for example, another deep blue state, has economical difficulties as well, but Brown handily won.

People don't care about social issues put to rest when the economy still sucks, and Rauner was not a social issues warrior like Bill Brady. Pet social issues don't win elections; it's always about the economy.

Illinois pension crisis continued to grow from $83 billion in 2011 to nearly $100 billion now, despite Quinn raising taxes to deal with it in 2011 and gaining over $30 billion in new revenue. Quinn said it would only be to 4% and temporary, but raised it to 5% and actually campaigned on making it permanent. Also, Quinn actually cut educational and environmental spending overall, while there was bureaucratic mismanagement in the remaining funds. Quinn was stained in this past year by a number of scandals and investigations that tarnished his "clean reformer" image like the anti-crime fund that turned bad and revelations about improper payments to various Democratic party members in Cook County.

On top of this, Quinn ran a bad campaign, and Rauner ran a decent one. Rauner campaigned solely on economic issues, taxes, the pension crisis and state debt, reform, and education. Quinn primarily tried to paint Rauner as another Romney + Brady, and came off as desperate. People were angry at Quinn, and thus voted him out (but kept a heavily Democratic legislature, hilariously).

If the Illinois GOP nominated a better candidate than Brady in 2010, this would've happened then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He absolutely would have. Pat Quinn lost this for being Pat Quinn. A generic D (which Daley very much is) wins against Rauner.

Why was Quinn disliked so much? He has a proven progressive record. Medicare expansion, gay marriage, environemental protection, minimum wage, increased eduction funding and he even cut spending. And last but not least, he handled the situation after Blogo's impeachment pretty well.

I heard that Quinn had a difficult relationship with State Legislators (of his own party). Might that be a reason? Or the economy? California for example, another deep blue state, has economical difficulties as well, but Brown handily won.

We had better candidates to run, but the party bosses chose to stick with Quinn no matter what. And better to wait it out for 2018, it looks like Daley, Madigan, or Vallas wants the job.

[President Johnson]

He absolutely would have. Pat Quinn lost this for being Pat Quinn. A generic D (which Daley very much is) wins against Rauner.

Why was Quinn disliked so much? He has a proven progressive record. Medicare expansion, gay marriage, environemental protection, minimum wage, increased eduction funding and he even cut spending. And last but not least, he handled the situation after Blogo's impeachment pretty well.

I heard that Quinn had a difficult relationship with State Legislators (of his own party). Might that be a reason? Or the economy? California for example, another deep blue state, has economical difficulties as well, but Brown handily won.

We had better candidates to run, but the party bosses chose to stick with Quinn no matter what. And better to wait it out for 2018, it looks like Daley, Madigan, or Vallas wants the job.

Someone elese already mentioned it in another tread: I know, it sounds crazy, but Obama would be a smart candidate.

[Kraxner]

He absolutely would have. Pat Quinn lost this for being Pat Quinn. A generic D (which Daley very much is) wins against Rauner.

Why was Quinn disliked so much? He has a proven progressive record. Medicare expansion, gay marriage, environemental protection, minimum wage, increased eduction funding and he even cut spending. And last but not least, he handled the situation after Blogo's impeachment pretty well.

I heard that Quinn had a difficult relationship with State Legislators (of his own party). Might that be a reason? Or the economy? California for example, another deep blue state, has economical difficulties as well, but Brown handily won.

Economic problems in illinois are much deeper than california's.


For example california managed to create net jobs since the GFC in middle of 2014.

http://i.imgur.com/mE4jBzi.png


While Illinois has had a lost generation since 2000.

http://i.imgur.com/G26QOes.png


Also Rauner ignored social issues and hammered quinn on the poor economy performance of three consecutive termed democrat governors.

It was basically, hey if blago and quinn failed, why not try a republican for once?

And so a lot of democrats and independents who voted for Dick Durbin split their ticket for Rauner.

Its quite difficult for progressives and conservatives for some reason to accept that side show issues like being for or against gay marriage and minimum wage doesnt mean much if people feel their pockets recede.

Francois Hollande helped get gay marriage approved but he has a 10% approval rating.