Hillary in 2016- likelihood of a Democratic Congress
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  Hillary in 2016- likelihood of a Democratic Congress
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President Johnson
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« on: November 22, 2014, 02:28:01 PM »

If Hillary is elected in 2016 with a solid margin (PV around 52% and 300+ EVs), how likely is a Democratic Congress in 2017?
The Senate map in 2016 looks comfortable for Dems; regaining the chamber is absolutely possible (I think the likelihood for this is at least 60%). But I have more doubts about the House. At least 30 seats are required to regain a majority. Is this possible? Any thoughts?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2014, 04:16:22 PM »

Even if Kirk, Johnson, and Toomey are all taken out, you guys would still need one more seat, which would result in having to go after a secondary challenge like Ayotte, who will likely survive, and Burr, who probably will also
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2014, 04:21:10 PM »

Still very unlikely.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2014, 04:54:19 PM »

A democratic congress is more likely in 2018, with the big if being that a Republican is elected President.
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morgieb
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2014, 05:21:46 PM »

A good shot of winning the Senate, little chance of winning the House.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2014, 05:39:55 PM »

A good shot of winning the Senate, little chance of winning the House.

+1. If by "good" we understand something about "50-50". No more. House is unwinnable, except in 2006-08 wave, and even then - not very likely..
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2014, 05:47:12 PM »

A good shot of winning the Senate, little chance of winning the House.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2014, 06:22:10 PM »

Senate: Way too early to tell, but probably around 50/50
House: Very low
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2014, 06:22:51 PM »

Senate: Way too early to tell, but probably around 50/50
House: Very low
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2014, 06:35:15 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2014, 06:36:52 PM by Nichlemn »

I think Democrats have about a 15% chance of winning the House and about a 40% chance of winning the Senate in 2016, but the probabilities are quite a bit different conditional upon Hillary winning almost exactly 52% of the vote.

For Democrats to win the Senate, they'll very probably need to be winning the Presidency, then either be performing strongly across the board or get a bit of luck in close races. 52% is probably strong enough to be favourites to win the Senate, but Republicans would still have a good shot if their incumbents in purple states performed strongly. 60% Dem?

For Democrats to win the House, they almost certainly needing to be winning the Presidency by a large margin and this reflects underlying Democratic strength as opposed to just a big difference in candidate quality. I think the top quartile of Democratic wins would probably be enough, and as Democrats are a slight favourite, that puts it at about 15%. But 52% is not the top quartile of wins, it's quite an average sized win historically, so the odds of a Democratic house takeover would be somewhat less, maybe 10%, and would probably rely on some kind of monumental failure of Congressional Republicans.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2014, 10:47:11 AM »

Hilary DSenate GOP House

Pickoff PA,IL,WI

need a second tier battleground

KS, AK, NH, GA, FL, or OH.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2014, 05:22:21 PM »

25% chance of retaking the Senate -50% chance of taking the House.

Those numbers get better (especially the Senate numbers) if Hillary is not the nominee, because she's insanely polarizing. While she could win in a landslide, she'll likely have minimal or no coattails downballot   (outside of Illinois and maybe Wisconsin)
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Flake
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« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2014, 07:18:28 PM »

25% chance of retaking the Senate -50% chance of taking the House.

I hope you switched up those numbers.

Anyway: 65% for Senate, 15% for House.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2014, 07:37:28 PM »

Early to tell, but I'd give it 60% for the Senate at least.  Zilch for the House until 2020 though at the earliest.

Presidential turnout and resentment of GOP Congress will probably sweep out Kirk (if it didn't matter how conservative Pryor was this mid-term in Arkansas, then it doesn't mater if Kirk supports same-sex marriage in Illinois),Johnson, and Toomey.


That's 3 right there, then add coattails tossing out Ayotte, Portman, and Rubio and you get 6.

Finally if Paul and McCain decide to abdicate, Kentucky and Arizona are possible pick-ups (Kentucky if Grimes runs and Arizona if Carmona runs)


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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2014, 08:20:09 PM »

25% chance of retaking the Senate -50% chance of taking the House.

I hope you switched up those numbers.

Anyway: 65% for Senate, 15% for House.

That's supposed be a negative fifty.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2014, 04:19:58 AM »

Assuming she won with 52%, a good chance of a Senate majority. However,  the House is most likely gone until 2022 under this scenario. If Hillary wins in a very close election, she probably gets a Republican Senate and House, with expanded GOP majorities in 2018.
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2014, 04:30:12 AM »

The House isn't flipping without a real wave election or some less gerrymandered districts.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2014, 10:55:48 AM »

Early to tell, but I'd give it 60% for the Senate at least.  Zilch for the House until 2020 though at the earliest.

Presidential turnout and resentment of GOP Congress will probably sweep out Kirk (if it didn't matter how conservative Pryor was this mid-term in Arkansas, then it doesn't mater if Kirk supports same-sex marriage in Illinois),Johnson, and Toomey.


That's 3 right there, then add coattails tossing out Ayotte, or Murkowski(Miller and Begich run) or Rubio(should be an open seat) and you get up to 4.







We will see as far as 2018 goes, with term limited govs in MI, WI and FL and perhaps recall in IL with Rauner petition, only WVA seems to be gone, minimizing our losses as far as the Senate.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: November 24, 2014, 11:59:39 AM »

The Koch syndicate will do everything possible to ensure that there are no fair campaigns.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2014, 12:21:19 PM »

Even if Kirk, Johnson, and Toomey are all taken out, you guys would still need one more seat, which would result in having to go after a secondary challenge like Ayotte, who will likely survive, and Burr, who probably will also

Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida are all potential contested GOP-held seats in 2016. It's way too early to rule any of them out.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: November 24, 2014, 12:39:52 PM »

Even if Kirk, Johnson, and Toomey are all taken out, you guys would still need one more seat, which would result in having to go after a secondary challenge like Ayotte, who will likely survive, and Burr, who probably will also

Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida are all potential contested GOP-held seats in 2016. It's way too early to rule any of them out.

Arizona and Iowa are both potential Democratic pickups should the incumbent, octogenarian Republican Senators retire. Senator Portman (Ohio) is at risk of a primary challenge for showing support for same-sex marriage. Burr (North Carolina), Blunt (Missouri), and Rubio (Florida) have achieved little and are vulnerable. Maybe even Vitter (Louisiana) might have trouble if someone dredges up the prostitution scandal. How strong is Isakson in Georgia? Should Michelle Nunn decide to run again, she has experience in a surprisingly-close race.

Much will depend upon how current Republican Senators show themselves.  If they make very reactionary statements, then the Koch fronts will be delighted -- but will the voters?   
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Vosem
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« Reply #21 on: November 24, 2014, 03:28:21 PM »

House chances are very low and depend on a very large Democratic wave and competent recruitment to barely succeed -- maybe 10-15%. Senate chances are fair, at maybe 40%, but I think it's a stretch to say Democrats are a 50/50 shot to retake the Senate, never mind favored.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: November 24, 2014, 08:12:09 PM »

The Koch syndicate is going to defend every one of its stooges ferociously and t4ry to win even more. Democracy may be dying in America.

I cannot think of swear words strong enough for the Citizens United decision. The usual ones for sex and excretion fail.
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