Nichlemn
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,920
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« on: November 22, 2014, 06:35:15 PM » |
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« edited: November 22, 2014, 06:36:52 PM by Nichlemn »
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I think Democrats have about a 15% chance of winning the House and about a 40% chance of winning the Senate in 2016, but the probabilities are quite a bit different conditional upon Hillary winning almost exactly 52% of the vote.
For Democrats to win the Senate, they'll very probably need to be winning the Presidency, then either be performing strongly across the board or get a bit of luck in close races. 52% is probably strong enough to be favourites to win the Senate, but Republicans would still have a good shot if their incumbents in purple states performed strongly. 60% Dem?
For Democrats to win the House, they almost certainly needing to be winning the Presidency by a large margin and this reflects underlying Democratic strength as opposed to just a big difference in candidate quality. I think the top quartile of Democratic wins would probably be enough, and as Democrats are a slight favourite, that puts it at about 15%. But 52% is not the top quartile of wins, it's quite an average sized win historically, so the odds of a Democratic house takeover would be somewhat less, maybe 10%, and would probably rely on some kind of monumental failure of Congressional Republicans.
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