2016 Presidential Election in Peru: A(nother) dark horse to come up?

[Prince of Salem]

Hello Atlas Forum!

Today I wanted to make a thread about my dear home country.

Since the early 90's, Peru has seen dark horse candidates rise up in almost every election. In 1990, Alberto Fujimori, the dark horse of the moment, won the presidency in a dramatic turn of events. He won reelection in 1995 in a country that is not used to presidential reelections.

By 2000 he was starting to grow unpopular, and after many strong challenges from high-profile politicians of the moment, he saw his biggest challenge in (oh surprise!) a dark horse: Alejandro Toledo. He won, but narrowly and with a lot of doubts about the legitimacy of the process. Huge scandals came up, he was forced to quit, and the next year Mr. Toledo won the presidency.

President Toledo never met the popularity that candidate Toledo had. By 2006, another dark horse appeared on stage: Ollanta Humala. He came close to victory, but fear about his relations with the Chavez government in Venezuela brought him down. If he won in 2011 was because he faced Alberto Fujimori's daughter, Keiko, and the memories from the 90's scandals could not be erased.

President Humala has not reached more than 30% in his approval rates for more than a year, as he didn't make the difference he was expected to. There's many presumptive candidates for 2016, but as far as I know my beloved country, there's two things we can expect from those elections: another dark horse coming up and doing who knows what (very likely becoming unpopular in the meantime), or an already well-known figure facing a chaotic situation (probably even a massive riot) and a cinical populace.

What do you think? Have you been following the situation in Peru? If so, what do you expect? If not, does this catch your interest?

[EPG]

Thank you. Why is re-election so rare? Is President Humala seen as under-performing compared to other popular left-wing presidents in the region?

[Prince of Salem]

Thank you. Why is re-election so rare? Is President Humala seen as under-performing compared to other popular left-wing presidents in the region?

Well, right now consecutive reelections are illegal, but even if they were legal, most presidents wouldn't have a chance: the electorate is quite unstable here. And President Humala... he's not even considered left-wing anymore. The left-wing base has stopped supporting him, and after quite a few scandals, his approval rates are under 30, which is not so rare around here: President Toledo would regularly reach approval rates under 10.