Kingmaker candidate? What if this were to happen?

[Simfan34]

Some wealthy independent specifically targets a number of small non-swing states, running a low tech, ideologically amorphous campaign that manages to be dismissed as inconsequential by the two parties. Lots of diner meetings, house parties, New Hampshire style stuff except a year long. Come election day, however, the two parties are neck and neck 259-255 and the guy has won a number of states with small pluralities, and has the balance, 24.

How much can he get out of it? What happens?

[Vega]

I imagine there would be some sort of deal by which the rich independent get's even richer, and gains major power in Washington, if he drops out and endorses one candidate over another.

That being said, I find the situation to be very implausible. You can't win even the small states by running a small campaign with dinner parties and the like.

It's not the 1800s anymore.

[Mister Mets]

There has to be a major issue that unites these particular states. Presumably, the Independent would get favorable pledges on that issue.

This was basically the approach of third party candidates like Stromm Thurmond and George Wallace, who won a few southern states (worth 39 electoral votes for Thurmond, and 46 for Wallace.) They had strong support in one region, and wanted to play kingmaker in a close election.

It could also happen with a third party candidate based in a single state.