Would Frank Guinta have defeated Shaheen in NH?

[SNJ1985]

What do you think?

[ElectionsGuy]

No, he barely won the first district against a weaker incumbent.

[free my dawg]

He'd probably do as well as Brown.

[Vega]

I highly doubt it.

[Maxwell]

He'd probably do as well as Brown.

Guinta's a bad fit for New Hampshire, so this is probably right.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maybe. On one hand, he's actually from New Hampshire. On the other hand, he doesn't win the 1st CD by large margins.

[Suburbia]

No, I don't think so.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think Shaheen is just too entrenched and popular in NH to go down in anything less than a 2008-esque Presidential wave.

Brown was not the weak candidate people here pretend he was. He had a national profile and ran a strong campaign - he just fell short against a powerhouse incumbent. I think Guinta would have done roughly the same.

[IceSpear]

No, but Sununu or Jeb Bradley probably would have.

[hopper]

No, but Sununu or Jeb Bradley probably would have.

Why does Sununu have that Brown didn't in order to have beaten Shaheen?

[Maxwell]

No, but Sununu or Jeb Bradley probably would have.

Why does Sununu have that Brown didn't in order to have beaten Shaheen?

Previous existence in the state, for one.

[IceSpear]

No, but Sununu or Jeb Bradley probably would have.

Why does Sununu have that Brown didn't in order to have beaten Shaheen?

Previous existence in the state, for one.

Also probably would've known better than to campaign mainly on muh ebola, muh immigration. As if these issues are of the utmost importance to New Hampshire. A non carpetbagger would be more politically attuned to their concerns.

Then again, this is a guy who thought the best way to beat Elizabeth Warren would be calling her "Professor Warren" and snickering. It only gets more clear with time that his win in 2010 was all about Coakley and the national environment and not at all about him. Just in the right place at the right time.

[nclib]

I originally voted 'yes', but after reading this thread, would change to 'no'.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No, but Sununu or Jeb Bradley probably would have.

Why does Sununu have that Brown didn't in order to have beaten Shaheen?

Previous existence in the state, for one.

Also probably would've known better than to campaign mainly on muh ebola, muh immigration. As if these issues are of the utmost importance to New Hampshire. A non carpetbagger would be more politically attuned to their concerns.

Then again, this is a guy who thought the best way to beat Elizabeth Warren would be calling her "Professor Warren" and snickering. It only gets more clear with time that his win in 2010 was all about Coakley and the national environment and not at all about him. Just in the right place at the right time.

He wasn't incapable of victory in 2014, if that's what you're implying. He was just incapable in this particular race: He would have won the MA Governor's Race this year, he would have had a slight edge in the 2013 special, and even had a good shot at winning against Markey this year.  He simply looked at all the opportunities, and chose the riskiest one, and his political life (at least for the next few years) is over because of it.

[IceSpear]

No, but Sununu or Jeb Bradley probably would have.

Why does Sununu have that Brown didn't in order to have beaten Shaheen?

Previous existence in the state, for one.

Also probably would've known better than to campaign mainly on muh ebola, muh immigration. As if these issues are of the utmost importance to New Hampshire. A non carpetbagger would be more politically attuned to their concerns.

Then again, this is a guy who thought the best way to beat Elizabeth Warren would be calling her "Professor Warren" and snickering. It only gets more clear with time that his win in 2010 was all about Coakley and the national environment and not at all about him. Just in the right place at the right time.

He wasn't incapable of victory in 2014, if that's what you're implying. He was just incapable in this particular race: He would have won the MA Governor's Race this year, he would have had a slight edge in the 2013 special, and even had a good shot at winning against Markey this year.  He simply looked at all the opportunities, and chose the riskiest one, and his political life (at least for the next few years) is over because of it.

Yeah, that's exactly my point. He's just not that good at politics if you look at the totality of the evidence.

2010 - Wins a special election in a deep blue state in a toxic environment for Dems against the hapless Martha Coakley, is heralded as the Republican savior and Obamacare Killer.

2012 - Runs an extremely shallow campaign against Elizabeth Warren, focusing on her claiming Native American ancestry and condescendingly bashing her as a "professor" rather than focusing on any real issues. Loses handily.

2013 - Stupidly decides not to run in a special election he easily would've won.

2014 - Stupidly decides not to run in a governor's election he certainly would've won. Stupidly decides not to run for a Senate seat he would've had a decent chance in. Carpetbags to New Hampshire. Is held under 50% in a GOP primary full of joke candidates. Runs a terrible campaign on issues like Ebola and immigration when NH is a state where other issues would resonate much more. Ends up being the only Republican who loses a competitive state despite the enormous wave (even Ed Gillespie outperformed him).

[moderatevoter]

I remember reading this (and someone else mentioned it at some point). I think Baker asked Brown not to run for Senate in Massachusetts, since DSCC would start spending there and nationalize the statewide races. He felt that this would hurt his chances in the Gubernatorial race, which I think he was right about.

Having said that, I still can't fathom how Brown thought this was a good idea.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No, but Sununu or Jeb Bradley probably would have.

Why does Sununu have that Brown didn't in order to have beaten Shaheen?

He knows how to jam all of Shaheen's phones.

[Brittain33]

I remember reading this (and someone else mentioned it at some point). I think Baker asked Brown not to run for Senate in Massachusetts, since DSCC would start spending there and nationalize the statewide races. He felt that this would hurt his chances in the Gubernatorial race, which I think he was right about.

Having said that, I still can't fathom how Brown thought this was a good idea.

I agree. There's a lot to criticize about Brown's choices, but I too believe that he did not have an opportunity to run for governor once Charlie Baker expressed his interest, and a primary would have been unthinkable.

[Vosem]

He ran 1.3% ahead of Brown in the first district. If he performed this well and carried this over to the second (doubtful, but let's assume so), he would still have lost 50.7%-49.3%. No, I don't think Guinta would've won. Chris Sununu or Jeb Bradley or Bill Binnie might've, but not Guinta.

[free my dawg]

I think Shaheen is just too entrenched and popular in NH to go down in anything less than a 2008-esque Presidential wave.

Brown was not the weak candidate people here pretend he was. He had a national profile and ran a strong campaign - he just fell short against a powerhouse incumbent. I think Guinta would have done roughly the same.

Sure, if you call focusing on nothing but immigration and pissing away two easy chances to win races a good candidacy. As for powerhouse incumbents, that doesn't matter. A state Senate backbencher could have taken down Shaheen this year - Democrats' strongest "powerhouse incumbent" was a point away from falling.

[hopper]

No, but Sununu or Jeb Bradley probably would have.

Why does Sununu have that Brown didn't in order to have beaten Shaheen?

Previous existence in the state, for one.

Also probably would've known better than to campaign mainly on muh ebola, muh immigration. As if these issues are of the utmost importance to New Hampshire. A non carpetbagger would be more politically attuned to their concerns.

Then again, this is a guy who thought the best way to beat Elizabeth Warren would be calling her "Professor Warren" and snickering. It only gets more clear with time that his win in 2010 was all about Coakley and the national environment and not at all about him. Just in the right place at the right time.

He wasn't incapable of victory in 2014, if that's what you're implying. He was just incapable in this particular race: He would have won the MA Governor's Race this year, he would have had a slight edge in the 2013 special, and even had a good shot at winning against Markey this year.  He simply looked at all the opportunities, and chose the riskiest one, and his political life (at least for the next few years) is over because of it.

Yeah, that's exactly my point. He's just not that good at politics if you look at the totality of the evidence.


2013 - Stupidly decides not to run in a special election he easily would've won.

You think Brown would have won in 2013? I think that would have been tough for him to beat Markey. Markey had great name recognition statewide because he was a Congressmen in the state for 3 decades.

In 2012 Brown should have focused on issues(true) rather than mocking Warren too much on her Native American Roots. Nothing wrong with calling her "Professor" though. President Obama called Mitt Romney  "Governor" or "Governor Romney" during the 2012 Presidential Debates.

[IceSpear]

No, but Sununu or Jeb Bradley probably would have.

Why does Sununu have that Brown didn't in order to have beaten Shaheen?

Previous existence in the state, for one.

Also probably would've known better than to campaign mainly on muh ebola, muh immigration. As if these issues are of the utmost importance to New Hampshire. A non carpetbagger would be more politically attuned to their concerns.

Then again, this is a guy who thought the best way to beat Elizabeth Warren would be calling her "Professor Warren" and snickering. It only gets more clear with time that his win in 2010 was all about Coakley and the national environment and not at all about him. Just in the right place at the right time.

He wasn't incapable of victory in 2014, if that's what you're implying. He was just incapable in this particular race: He would have won the MA Governor's Race this year, he would have had a slight edge in the 2013 special, and even had a good shot at winning against Markey this year.  He simply looked at all the opportunities, and chose the riskiest one, and his political life (at least for the next few years) is over because of it.

Yeah, that's exactly my point. He's just not that good at politics if you look at the totality of the evidence.


2013 - Stupidly decides not to run in a special election he easily would've won.

You think Brown would have won in 2013? I think that would have been tough for him to beat Markey. Markey had great name recognition statewide because he was a Congressmen in the state for 3 decades.

In 2012 Brown should have focused on issues(true) rather than mocking Warren too much on her Native American Roots. Nothing wrong with calling her "Professor" though. President Obama called Mitt Romney  "Governor" or "Governor Romney" during the 2012 Presidential Debates.

Yes, for sure. Markey only ended up winning that race by 10 points against Gomez. It was very low turnout. Brown was still very popular after his 2012 loss. Markey is about as exciting as watching paint dry. It was a perfect opportunity for Brown to return to the Senate.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Brown did rather well I though and merely removing the out of state factor could have flipped it. A third Sununu-Shaheen battle would have been interesting but Guinta wouldn't have beat her.

[CountryClassSF]

What do you think?

Shaheen was more popular than most incumbent Democrats, for whatever reason. So, no. I'm glad he's returning to the House though and replacing that hyper-left socialist Shea Porter.

Unlike Scott Brown, Frank Guinta is a good conservative. He beat a RINO in the primary, and still won. I know that's upsetting to some.

Thank God!