Americans favor immigration executive action, 67-28

[Mehmentum]

Wasn't there another poll taken before the official announcement that showed most people disapproving of this?  On the other hand, this fits that Latino Decisions poll that found 89% of Latinos in favor.

Regardless, I'd like to see more polling before I believe this.

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The bigger issue is how it will play out in 2016.  Will reversing Obama's order 'on day one' be a litmus test for GOP primary? And will vowing to ramp up deportations be a liability for the general? That is the big game here.

What Obama and the Democrats are banking on is:

A).  This will be a litmus test issue for the GOP in the 2016 primaries.
B). Hispanics will be extremely in favor of the executive action, and will be highly motivated to turn out because of it.
C). While a majority of the general population may oppose it, it won't be the deciding factor for many people outside of the Hispanic community.   Conservatives may be motivated to turn out by it, but conservative turnout is already sky high, so that will have a limited effect.

Its interesting how much question wording effects the outcome.  My guess is that how public opinion eventually falls will depend a lot on how the debate unfolds.

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A lot (if not all) of the remainder of the white population (that 39% that voted for Obama) is closed off to the GOP for one reason or another.

About 15% of Americans are 'neither religious nor spiritual'. http://www.pewforum.org/files/2012/10/NonesOnTheRise-full.pdf
About 2% of Americans are Jews (about 6% are of a religion other than Christianity, but those are probably mostly minorities anyway).
About 4% are LGBT.

So that's about 20% right there that the GOP has completely alienated right out of the gate.  I don't see any way the GOP will get an appreciable percentage of the non-christian or LGBT vote in the near future, and I sincerely doubt that they'd even try at risk of angering the social conservatives.

That's their maximum if the Republicans can somehow convince union member housholds (18%), people with graduate degrees (12%), millenials (19%), women, New England Whites, and a slew of other groups that the GOP has alienated for one reason or another.

[Mehmentum]

Here is how Quinnipiac asked the question, first they set it up with this question:

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They then followed up with this:

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So again they didn't actually describe Obama's executive order and the previous question may actually lead many to think Obama's order was to let every illegal immigrant stay and become a citizen. Again this is why the Hart poll (which described how the order was limited) comes up with a different result.


In a way this is not unlike Obamacare. Polling shows that when asked about it in general, a plurality are opposed to it, but when you ask about the details, majorities like the features of health care reform. And most don't want to see it fully repealed, which is the parallel here. How many Americans want the government to spend the resorces required to deport 11M undocmented, including the 5m who parents of US citizens and have been here 5 years (aka the ones in Obama's order)?

That is the trick for the GOP in 2016. How can they find a way to be against this order and against immigration reform but not be painted as being for massive deportation.

That or being against the order whilst supporting legislative action.

That is the best path for the GOP.  However, in order for that to work, they'd actually need to pursue legislative action in the next two years.  No one will believe that they're actually in favor of legislative action if they don't make a serious effort to pass immigration reform when they have control of both Houses of congress.

Boehner and McConnell said before Obama issued the executive order that doing so would 'poison the well', making any immigration deal impossible.  Will they stick to this pledge?  If they go back on this pledge and try to get a deal through, can they get enough conservative Republicans (who are furious at Obama for this executive order and unlikely to feel the spirit of compromise) on board to get past the 'majority of the majority' rule?  Would a deal that can get the majority of the House Republican caucus be able to make it to 60 votes in the Senate?