Is Roy Blunt vulnerable?

[morgieb]

Aren't his approvals pretty dire?

Still we need a candidate. So it probably won't be particularly competitive.

[IceSpear]

Yes.

2012 does not automatically make Missouri = Oklahoma. Obama still kept it within single digits without spending a cent there. Hillary will do better, and Blunt will run behind the Republican presidential nominee.

[tmthforu94]

Blunt's approvals are in the 30s I think, and that's by no means a good position to be in especially considering the Tea Party are trying to recruit a non-Akin Tea Partier to run against him in the primary. Apparently State Sen. John Lamping is considered a frontrunner to Tea Party Blunt out of his seat.

Yeah, Lamping won't run. I guarantee it.

[dmmidmi]

When was the last time a Senator from Missouri wasn't vulnerable? It seems like the revolving door there is rivaled by only North Carolina.

[windjammer]

Maybe this race won't be "Safe Rep", but he will survive.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

When was the last time a Senator from Missouri wasn't vulnerable? It seems like the revolving door there is rivaled by only North Carolina.

Bond in 2004

[KingSweden]

Maybe this race won't be "Safe Rep", but he will survive.

This. "Vulnerable" does not mean he's likely to lose. I think Blunt wins something like 52-48 or 53-47.

[user12345]

It could be competitive if Kander is the candidate. Kander is young and a veteran which always seems to help. It really just depends on how Democrats do here in 2016.

[hopper]

Blunt's approvals are in the 30s I think, and that's by no means a good position to be in especially considering the Tea Party are trying to recruit a non-Akin Tea Partier to run against him in the primary. Apparently State Sen. John Lamping is considered a frontrunner to Tea Party Blunt out of his seat.

Why even primary Blunt? Blunt is very conservative and a reliable Republican Vote in the US Senate.

So niether US Senators from Missouri are popular with Blunt being in the low 30's and McCaskill isn't really that popular at all which I blame on her vote for ObamaCare.

[Maxwell]

Blunt's approvals are in the 30s I think, and that's by no means a good position to be in especially considering the Tea Party are trying to recruit a non-Akin Tea Partier to run against him in the primary. Apparently State Sen. John Lamping is considered a frontrunner to Tea Party Blunt out of his seat.

So I think MO-Sen is in a similar position to AZ-Sen. Either Republican in the primary could blow it in the general, just the Dems need somebody here.

Koster's eyeing the Governor seat more than the Senate seat I think, McCaskill already holds a Senate seat, Zweifel already said he won't run for anything in 2016, and that leaves Kander who would definitely give Blunt a run for his money. But in the case Kander were to decline and run for re-election, who else is there?

Can I just say something? Todd Akin's not a Tea Partier. It's a falsehood that keeps getting thrown around, I just want that definitively known.

[badgate]

Blunt's approvals are in the 30s I think, and that's by no means a good position to be in especially considering the Tea Party are trying to recruit a non-Akin Tea Partier to run against him in the primary. Apparently State Sen. John Lamping is considered a frontrunner to Tea Party Blunt out of his seat.

So I think MO-Sen is in a similar position to AZ-Sen. Either Republican in the primary could blow it in the general, just the Dems need somebody here.

Koster's eyeing the Governor seat more than the Senate seat I think, McCaskill already holds a Senate seat, Zweifel already said he won't run for anything in 2016, and that leaves Kander who would definitely give Blunt a run for his money. But in the case Kander were to decline and run for re-election, who else is there?

Can I just say something? Todd Akin's not a Tea Partier. It's a falsehood that keeps getting thrown around, I just want that definitively known.

Indeed.

[IceSpear]

Blunt's approvals are in the 30s I think, and that's by no means a good position to be in especially considering the Tea Party are trying to recruit a non-Akin Tea Partier to run against him in the primary. Apparently State Sen. John Lamping is considered a frontrunner to Tea Party Blunt out of his seat.

So I think MO-Sen is in a similar position to AZ-Sen. Either Republican in the primary could blow it in the general, just the Dems need somebody here.

Koster's eyeing the Governor seat more than the Senate seat I think, McCaskill already holds a Senate seat, Zweifel already said he won't run for anything in 2016, and that leaves Kander who would definitely give Blunt a run for his money. But in the case Kander were to decline and run for re-election, who else is there?

Can I just say something? Todd Akin's not a Tea Partier. It's a falsehood that keeps getting thrown around, I just want that definitively known.

I always saw it as Steelman being the Tea Partier, Akin being the SoCon/Huckabee/Santorum wing guy, and Brunner being the CoC/"establishment" choice.

[Adam Griffin]

He'll win. 2016 is going to suck in that there will be - in theory - a lot of potential pick-ups, but I expect all but 3 or 4 to remain in Republican hands ever-so-slightly.

[ElectionsGuy]

Probably not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its gonna come down to 3 or 4 senate races, since we are gonna need them for Senate control.

We are gonna need 1 more after Toomey, Kirk and Johnson.

Burr and Blunt and Portman are in a unique situation, they can win without a prez coattail,  but Ayotte or Rubio or if Begich and Miller enter the race in AK, Murkowski will have a race on her hands.

Right now, with Hillary heading onto the ticket, we have a good chance of picking off several republicans and we need to expand the map no matter if it is Johnson or Portman. We will see when it gets closer to election.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Its gonna come down to 3 or 4 senate races, since we are gonna need them for Senate control.

We are gonna need 1 more after Toomey, Kirk and Johnson.

Burr and Blunt and Portman are in a unique situation, they can win without a prez coattail,  but Ayotte or Rubio or if Begich and Miller enter the race in AK, Murkowski will have a race on her hands.

Right now, with Hillary heading onto the ticket, we have a good chance of picking off several republicans and we need to expand the map no matter if it is Johnson or Portman. We will see when it gets closer to election.

Ayotte is in the same category as Portman/Blunt as far as vulnerability. With the right candidate, the democrats can win, but they need that 'right candidate' to actually run. Burr is probably the next one to fall after Johnson/Kirk/Toomey. Rubio is slightly less vulnerable than Burr, because the FL Democratic Party loves to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Maxwell]

Blunt's approvals are in the 30s I think, and that's by no means a good position to be in especially considering the Tea Party are trying to recruit a non-Akin Tea Partier to run against him in the primary. Apparently State Sen. John Lamping is considered a frontrunner to Tea Party Blunt out of his seat.

So I think MO-Sen is in a similar position to AZ-Sen. Either Republican in the primary could blow it in the general, just the Dems need somebody here.

Koster's eyeing the Governor seat more than the Senate seat I think, McCaskill already holds a Senate seat, Zweifel already said he won't run for anything in 2016, and that leaves Kander who would definitely give Blunt a run for his money. But in the case Kander were to decline and run for re-election, who else is there?

Can I just say something? Todd Akin's not a Tea Partier. It's a falsehood that keeps getting thrown around, I just want that definitively known.

I always saw it as Steelman being the Tea Partier, Akin being the SoCon/Huckabee/Santorum wing guy, and Brunner being the CoC/"establishment" choice.

And that is the correct understanding of the situation.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

alaska more competitive than Florida? ND not safe R? Give me a break.

[ElectionsGuy]

alaska more competitive than Florida? ND not safe R? Give me a break.

The logic stops here on The OC Factor

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Blunt's approvals are in the 30s I think, and that's by no means a good position to be in especially considering the Tea Party are trying to recruit a non-Akin Tea Partier to run against him in the primary. Apparently State Sen. John Lamping is considered a frontrunner to Tea Party Blunt out of his seat.

So I think MO-Sen is in a similar position to AZ-Sen. Either Republican in the primary could blow it in the general, just the Dems need somebody here.

Koster's eyeing the Governor seat more than the Senate seat I think, McCaskill already holds a Senate seat, Zweifel already said he won't run for anything in 2016, and that leaves Kander who would definitely give Blunt a run for his money. But in the case Kander were to decline and run for re-election, who else is there?

Can I just say something? Todd Akin's not a Tea Partier. It's a falsehood that keeps getting thrown around, I just want that definitively known.

I always saw it as Steelman being the Tea Partier, Akin being the SoCon/Huckabee/Santorum wing guy, and Brunner being the CoC/"establishment" choice.

I considered him "a tea party candidate in a race with three tea partiers" and him having the weakest claim to that title by virture of having SIX TERMS in the US House whereas Steelman was a one term Treaurer and Brunner was a businessman. I think C4C backed Brunner as well. Sarah Palin backed Steelman.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Absolutely not. Missouri is a rapidly reddening state, and Democrats have literally NO ONE TO RUN. McCaskill is already a senator and everyone else of some significance will probably run for governor. Anyone who thinks Blunt is vulnerable (to anything other than a primary challenge) because "Muh Great Female Hope is gunna carry Muh 49 States" is obviously a delusional hack who shouldn't be treated seriously.

Eh they could run Clint Zweifel, but yes, their bench is thinning quickly, it's a now or never moment here.

He's said he's more interested in being governor.

I agree that Missouri's become a lot more conservative but to say the Democrats have no one overlooks Jay Nixon.

Jay Nixon flushed his chances down the toilet in Ferguson.

This forum loves to promote these red state populist Dems that will just pluck away a GOP Senate seat. Then they have an affair, lose a downballot race or prove themselves to be totally incompetent and in over their head.

[Suburbia]

Yes. Blunt can lose to Kander. I have it as lean R. Democrats like Kander or St. Louis mayor Francis Slay can run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, NH, WI, IL and Pa are gonna follow the prez map because this is the Clinton 272 firewall. Rubio is pretty safe if he should run because of the Immigration issue, and AK may or may not be competitive due to Begich run. It is a preliminary map, but those are the seats in order for the Dems to take control.

alaska more competitive than Florida? ND not safe R? Give me a break.

The logic stops here on The OC Factor

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yes, NH, WI, IL and Pa are gonna follow the prez map because this is the Clinton 272 firewall. Rubio is pretty safe if he should run because of the Immigration issue, and AK may or may not be competitive due to Begich run. It is a preliminary map, but those are the seats in order for the Dems to take control.

alaska more competitive than Florida? ND not safe R? Give me a break.

The logic stops here on The OC Factor

but why is oh safer than WY or ND?