Surviving Southern Democrats If Landrieu Goes Down

[JRP1994]

Note: South as defined by "Old Confederacy" rather than "US Census Region", thereby excluding Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Washington DC

Senators
• Mark Warner (VA)
• Tim Kaine (VA)
• Bill Nelson (FL)

Percentage of all 22 Senators from South = 13%

Representatives
• Beto O'Rourke (TX-16)
• Marc Veasey (TX-33)
• Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30)
• Joaquin Castro (TX-20)
• Lloyd Doggett (TX-35)
• Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
• Ruben Hinjosa (TX-15)
• Filemon Vela (TX-34)
• Al Green (TX-9)
• Sheila Jackson Lee (TX-18)
• Gene Green (TX-29)
• Cedric Richmond (LA-02)
• Bennie Thompson (MS-02)
• Steve Cohen (TN-09)
• Jim Cooper (TN-05)
• Terri Sewell (AL-07)
• Hank Johnson (GA-04)
• John Lewis (GA-05)
• David Scott (GA-13)
• Sanford Bishop (GA-02)
• Gwen Graham (FL-02)
• Corrine Brown (FL-05)
• Alan Grayson (FL-09)
• Kathy Kastor (FL-14)
• Patrick Murphy (FL-18)
• Alcee Hastings (FL-20)
• Ted Deutch (FL-21)
• Lois Frankel (FL-22)
• Frederica Wilson (FL-24)
• Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-23)
• James Clyburn (SC-06)
• Alma Adams (NC-12)
• David Price (NC-04)
• G.K. Butterfield (NC-01)
• Robert Scott (VA-03)
• Gerald Connolly (VA-11)
• Donald Beyer (VA-08)

Percentage of all 138 Representatives from South = 27%

Governors
• Terry McAuliffe (VA)

Percentage of all 11 Governors from South = 9%

[RI]

How many of those Reps actually represent white, rural areas? Maybe Gwen Graham?

[badgate]

How many of those Reps actually represent white, rural areas? Maybe Gwen Graham?

Does it matter? There are cities in the south, you know.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dem reps from majority white non-hispanic areas include Graham, Cooper, Murphy, probably Frankel and Kastor, and possibly a few others from Florida. So basically in the deep south, Barrow was the last one, though I suppose you could call FL-02 the deep south.

[RI]

How many of those Reps actually represent white, rural areas? Maybe Gwen Graham?

Does it matter? There are cities in the south, you know.

Yes, but calling Democrats elected there "Southern Democrats" is a bit disingenuous. They're more like "Democrats who happen to come from the South."

[politicus]

Note: South as defined by "Old Confederacy" rather than "US Census Region", thereby excluding Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Washington DC

Senators
• Mark Warner (VA)
• Tim Kaine (VA)
• Bill Nelson (FL)

Percentage of all 22 Senators from South = 9%

Bad math..

[The_Doctor]

Culturally, though, can you really say if Landrieu loses, there are any Southern senators left? Florida's a special cultural category of its own. Virginia's Democratic senators rely on North Virginia, which is basically an extension of Maryland.

Technically, you'd be right. In cultural terms, I'd say the South would be completely Republican in the U.S. Senate and non-minority majority districts, save a few.

[KCDem]

Glorious news! The rednecks aren't welcome in the tent.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Good ! Racist whites have no place in the Democratic party.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The idea that southern black people don't count as culturally or politically "southern" is strange. The reason they live where they do, and vote the way they do, is very intimately tied to the distinctive history of the south.

[DC Al Fine]

The idea that southern black people don't count as culturally or politically "southern" is strange. The reason they live where they do, and vote the way they do, is very intimately tied to the distinctive history of the south.

It's not that they aren't Southern, its that they aren't part of the trend. Democrats will continue winning black districts in the South for the foreseeable future. The Democrats' problem with Southern whites is a more interesting phenomenon.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The idea that southern black people don't count as culturally or politically "southern" is strange. The reason they live where they do, and vote the way they do, is very intimately tied to the distinctive history of the south.

It's not that they aren't Southern, its that they aren't part of the trend. Democrats will continue winning black districts in the South for the foreseeable future. The Democrats' problem with Southern whites is a more interesting phenomenon.

Oh sure. That way of phrasing it, I have no trouble with.

[nclib]

Dem reps from majority white non-hispanic areas include Graham, Cooper, Murphy, probably Frankel and Kastor, and possibly a few others from Florida. So basically in the deep south, Barrow was the last one, though I suppose you could call FL-02 the deep south.

And Price, Beyer, and Connolly. None of those are particularly culturally southern, but at least Price (NC-4, where I live) is surrounded by the South. South Fla. and No. Va. aren't totally in the cultural South, so that leaves Price, Cooper, and Graham.

BTW, where is the census (or other) link for CD data?

[JRP1994]

Note: South as defined by "Old Confederacy" rather than "US Census Region", thereby excluding Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Washington DC

Senators
• Mark Warner (VA)
• Tim Kaine (VA)
• Bill Nelson (FL)

Percentage of all 22 Senators from South = 9%

Bad math..

Good catch, thanks. Fixed.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dem reps from majority white non-hispanic areas include Graham, Cooper, Murphy, probably Frankel and Kastor, and possibly a few others from Florida. So basically in the deep south, Barrow was the last one, though I suppose you could call FL-02 the deep south.

And Price, Beyer, and Connolly. None of those are particularly culturally southern, but at least Price (NC-4, where I live) is surrounded by the South. South Fla. and No. Va. aren't totally in the cultural South, so that leaves Price, Cooper, and Graham.

BTW, where is the census (or other) link for CD data?

http://www.census.gov/mycd/#

[nclib]

Dem reps from majority white non-hispanic areas include Graham, Cooper, Murphy, probably Frankel and Kastor, and possibly a few others from Florida. So basically in the deep south, Barrow was the last one, though I suppose you could call FL-02 the deep south.

And Price, Beyer, and Connolly. None of those are particularly culturally southern, but at least Price (NC-4, where I live) is surrounded by the South. South Fla. and No. Va. aren't totally in the cultural South, so that leaves Price, Cooper, and Graham.

BTW, where is the census (or other) link for CD data?

http://www.census.gov/mycd/#

Thanks, though that doesn't give numbers for non-Hispanic whites.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dem reps from majority white non-hispanic areas include Graham, Cooper, Murphy, probably Frankel and Kastor, and possibly a few others from Florida. So basically in the deep south, Barrow was the last one, though I suppose you could call FL-02 the deep south.

And Price, Beyer, and Connolly. None of those are particularly culturally southern, but at least Price (NC-4, where I live) is surrounded by the South. South Fla. and No. Va. aren't totally in the cultural South, so that leaves Price, Cooper, and Graham.

BTW, where is the census (or other) link for CD data?

http://www.census.gov/mycd/#

Thanks, though that doesn't give numbers for non-Hispanic whites.

You can subtract the number of Hispanics from White to get the answer.

[Flake]

Dem reps from majority white non-hispanic areas include Graham, Cooper, Murphy, probably Frankel and Kastor, and possibly a few others from Florida. So basically in the deep south, Barrow was the last one, though I suppose you could call FL-02 the deep south.

And Price, Beyer, and Connolly. None of those are particularly culturally southern, but at least Price (NC-4, where I live) is surrounded by the South. South Fla. and No. Va. aren't totally in the cultural South, so that leaves Price, Cooper, and Graham.

BTW, where is the census (or other) link for CD data?

http://www.census.gov/mycd/#

Thanks, though that doesn't give numbers for non-Hispanic whites.

You can subtract the number of Hispanics from White to get the answer.

There are still some hispanics that when asked identify as black.

[retromike22]

It's hard to see Virginia as Southern anymore, I think it's more of a Mid-Atlantic area now.

[smoltchanov]

How many of those Reps actually represent white, rural areas? Maybe Gwen Graham?

Does it matter? There are cities in the south, you know.

Yes, but calling Democrats elected there "Southern Democrats" is a bit disingenuous. They're more like "Democrats who happen to come from the South."

+100. The term "Southern Democrat" has clear political meaning, not only geographical. White (and non-Jew in addition to non-Hispanic), mostly rural, mostly conservative (especially - on social issues), and so on. In this sense even Graham, Murphy and Cooper doesn't come too close to this definition. There are few remaining in state legislatures, but i am not sure there will be any 10-15 years from now...

[smoltchanov]

Glorious news! The rednecks aren't welcome in the tent.

Republicans will gladly take them, as they do since 1940th.. And you can kiss goodbye to House majority for foreseable future..

[freepcrusher]

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Republicans will gladly take them, as they do since 1940th.. And you can kiss goodbye to House majority for foreseable future..

the hank hill voters aren't the path to least resistance. The path to a majority involves taking seats like VA 10, PA 7, NJ 3 etc.

[BaconBacon96]

Very concerning to see.

[smoltchanov]

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Republicans will gladly take them, as they do since 1940th.. And you can kiss goodbye to House majority for foreseable future..

the hank hill voters aren't the path to least resistance. The path to a majority involves taking seats like VA 10, PA 7, NJ 3 etc.

And when do you expect to win at least one of them?? Comstock just won, and won convincingly. The same about MacArthur. Meehan is strong and shows no desire to retire. IMHO - wishful thinking. Of course if we talk about near future. If we are ready to wait, say, until 2032, when demography will make what it must, and (may be) another Democratic wave happens - then yes, of course.. Are you sure that Democrats will gain another Governorships in 2018 to be competitive during next redistricting? And without BIG victories in 2018 2022 easily becomes 2032...

[freepcrusher]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]
[/quote]
And when do you expect to win at least one of them?? Comstock just won, and won convincingly. The same about MacArthur. Meehan is strong and shows no desire to retire. IMHO - wishful thinking. Of course if we talk about near future. If we are ready to wait, say, until 2032, when demography will make what it must, and (may be) another Democratic wave happens - then yes, of course.. Are you sure that Democrats will gain another Governorships in 2018 to be competitive during next redistricting? And without BIG victories in 2018 2022 easily becomes 2032...
[/quote]

those type of seats aren't easy to win, but they're easier to win than dixiecrat seats like AL 5 or AR 1. Also, the next time a republican is in the white house, the dems should win it back. A lot of people aren't as tough incumbents as you think (Mark Warner for instance).