Would Heather Mizeur have won Maryland?

[free my dawg]

Obviously Doug Gansler wouldn't have, but would a candidate without ties to O'Malley's "rain tax", with an interesting narrative, and actual campaign skills beaten Larry Hogan?

[Maxwell]

Mizeur probably would've beaten Hogan, but Hogan ran a very strong campaign, so it would've been close either way.

Gansler might've lost worse because he's a gaffe machine.

[moderatevoter]

This is a good question. I worked on a few campaigns in Maryland, and I'm still baffled.

I'm still not entirely convinced that Gansler would have lost. He had questionable judgement and gaffed, but he was proactive in running against O'Malley and his tax increases. He also talked about how Maryland was losing businesses because its taxes made it less attractive than Virginia, which could have blunted the main justification for Hogan's candidacy. Anecdotally, I know numerous people who supported Gansler in the Democratic primary, but supported Hogan in the General Election.

I think it really depends on what type of campaign Mizeur ran, and how much distance she put between herself and O'Malley. I don't think Hogan was some sort of rockstar candidate, nor was his campaign that exceptional (though some of his ads were really good). I still think he was in the right place, at the right time.

I also think the Healthcare Exchange debacle is an underrated factor here. People really questioned Brown's competency after that.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

*snip*
I also think the Healthcare Exchange debacle is an underrated factor here. People really questioned Brown's competency after that.

This

[IceSpear]

Mizeur probably would've beaten Hogan, but Hogan ran a very strong campaign, so it would've been close either way.

Gansler might've lost worse because he's a gaffe machine.

[Mister Mets]

I doubt it. Brown had a more compelling background, and Mizeur was one of 141 members of the Maryland House of Delegates (representing 1/47th of the state.)

Plus, Mizeur would have been just as vulnerable to criticism of the rain tax, since she voted for it as a member of the legislature.

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/webmga/frmMain.aspx?ys=2012rs/votes/house/1389.htm

[The Arizonan]

I think she had a shot of winning the gubernatorial election.

However, I have a gut feeling that she would've lost. This year has been a Republican year which would've made it harder for Mizeur. Also, there is a glass ceiling that still exists. Kathleen Kennedy and Ellen Sauerbrey both lost their bids for governor.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I doubt it. Brown had a more compelling background, and Mizeur was one of 141 members of the Maryland House of Delegates (representing 1/47th of the state.)

Plus, Mizeur would have been just as vulnerable to criticism of the rain tax, since she voted for it as a member of the legislature.

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/webmga/frmMain.aspx?ys=2012rs/votes/house/1389.htm

Brown lost because of the mess that was the MD healthcare exchange, not because of the rain tax.

[KCDem]

I doubt it. Brown had a more compelling background, and Mizeur was one of 141 members of the Maryland House of Delegates (representing 1/47th of the state.)

Plus, Mizeur would have been just as vulnerable to criticism of the rain tax, since she voted for it as a member of the legislature.

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/webmga/frmMain.aspx?ys=2012rs/votes/house/1389.htm

Brown lost because of the mess that was the MD healthcare exchange, not because of the rain tax.

Brown lost primarily because he was a bad candidate and a terrible campaigner.

[henster]

What would have Hogan attacked Mizeur with? It was easy for him to link Brown to unpopular O'Malley and of course the failed MD Exchange but he could really only hit her on some votes had taken. While Gansler had few ties to O'Malley and would've actively differentiated himself from the Gov.

[Brodie Hellenes]

I have no idea, the results for the actual competition were so random....

[warandwar]

It's completely ridiculous to suggest that Mizeur would have lost because of the stormwater management fee. Knowledge of who voted for the fee would also imply knowledge of what the "rain tax" is, something no one who uses the phrase "rain tax" actually has.

[Kraxner]

It would of made no difference considering its likely that Mizeur would of been even more defensive of the taxes enacted during O'Malley's tenure.


Especially the rain tax considering shes a prominent environmentalist whos also a politician in the state.

[The_Doctor]

Her homosexuality and vote for the rain tax would have hurt her. Don't forget marriage equality passed barely here. (I think 52%).

For differing reasons Hogan would have won still.

[Skill and Chance]

Mizeur likely wins as a generic D.  I think it was all about Brown's unique problems, particularly fumbling the ACA exchange.  In a state as partisan as MD, it's probably helpful to be electorally unknown beyond your party label.

Also, I wonder who will run in 2018?  Hogan probably starts off as the most vulnerable governor in the country.

[moderatevoter]

Apparently Delaney has his eye on the Governorship. Maybe Brian Frosh.

[The_Doctor]

After looking at the numbers, I think Hogan has a decent chance to take a second term as MD Governor, barring a 2006 wave type election.

[KCDem]

After looking at the numbers, I think Hogan has a decent chance to take a second term as MD Governor, barring a 2006 wave type election.

There are 4 years between now and then. WWIII could happen in the meantime, so let's not jump to any conclusions.

[Maxwell]

Apparently Delaney has his eye on the Governorship. Maybe Brian Frosh.

Delaney nearly lost this year in a D+4 district to a guy endorsed by Allen West. If I were him, I'd watch my district a little more carefully.

[MATTROSE94]

After looking at the numbers, I think Hogan has a decent chance to take a second term as MD Governor, barring a 2006 wave type election.

I have that same feeling as well, though I think that his margin of victory for re-election will depend on what party controls the Presidency in 2018. If a Republican wins in 2016, Hogan might only be re-elected by 5 or 6%, but if Hillary Clinton is in office during the 2018 midterms (which will probably go very well for the Republicans), he could potentially be re-elected by a much as 10%.