Quinnipiac national: Romney leads Clinton by 1, but she leads all other Repubs

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac national poll:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2116

Clinton 43%
Christie 42%

Clinton 46%
Paul 41%

Clinton 46%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 46%
Bush 41%

Clinton 46%
Ryan 42%

Romney 45%
Clinton 44%

Clinton 48%
Cruz 37%

[KCDem]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%    LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

[Mr. Morden]

Huge gender gap here.  Romney leads Clinton by 16 among men, while she leads him by 13 among women.

fav/unfav %:

Paul 35/26% for +9%
Ryan 36/26% for +8%
Huckabee 36/29% for +7%
Clinton 50/45% for +5%
Christie 38/33% for +5%
Romney 44/42% for +2%
Bush 33/32% for +1%
Cruz 21/29% for -8%

[Tender Branson]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%    LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

[Pandaguineapig]

More proof that Clinton and Romney are being propped up by name recognition

[KCDem]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%    LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll! Especially with the ridiculously high white response %

[Tender Branson]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%    LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll! Especially with the ridiculously high white response %

It's not "ridiculously high". It's the "Darren Wilson solidarity effect" ...

[Mr. Morden]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%    LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll! Especially with the ridiculously high white response %

The 2012 exit poll showed 72% of voters being white, so this isn't all that much higher.

[KCDem]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%    LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll! Especially with the ridiculously high white response %

The 2012 exit poll showed 72% of voters being white, so this isn't all that much higher.

The % of the white vote has gone down in every presidential election in the last 20 years. It'll be about 70% in 2016. 74% is a midterm number.

[Mister Mets]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%   LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll! Especially with the ridiculously high white response %

The 2012 exit poll showed 72% of voters being white, so this isn't all that much higher.

The % of the white vote has gone down in every presidential election in the last 20 years. It'll be about 70% in 2016. 74% is a midterm number.

The first black President skewed the numbers a bit.

[Mr. Morden]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%   LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll! Especially with the ridiculously high white response %

The 2012 exit poll showed 72% of voters being white, so this isn't all that much higher.

The % of the white vote has gone down in every presidential election in the last 20 years. It'll be about 70% in 2016. 74% is a midterm number.

Fine, but you described that as being "ridiculously high".  Ridiculously?  Obviously, in a random sample, individual demographic %ages will fluctuate by a few % one way or the other.  Are you saying that any poll that doesn't nail each demographic subgroup to within 1 or 2% of what you consider the "correct" number is a "junk poll"?

[Consciously Unconscious]

You're forgetting that he's an expert on junk polls.

[Senator Cris]

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll!

This is the first one of a long series of "junk polls" until November 2016?

[KCDem]

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll!

This is the first one of a long series of "junk polls" until November 2016?

Yup! All polls 2 years out are junk!

[Mehmentum]

Since Romney's not going to run, there are essentially three types of Republican candidates, according to this poll.

Christie, who essentially ties Clinton.
Cruz, who loses hilariously.
And everyone else, who are down by 4-5%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%   LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll! Especially with the ridiculously high white response %

The 2012 exit poll showed 72% of voters being white, so this isn't all that much higher.

The % of the white vote has gone down in every presidential election in the last 20 years. It'll be about 70% in 2016. 74% is a midterm number.

The first black President skewed the numbers a bit.

The white vote has been going down for 20 years now. Obviously Obama wasn't on the ballot in all these elections.

Also, the possibility of the first female president will probably drive more women to the polls, to the benefit of Democrats.

Anyway, it's too early and we don't know if Quinnipiac still uses a 2014 sample. Also, I find it dubious that Clinton has higher favs than Romney, yet he beats her.

[pbrower2a]

Since Romney's not going to run, there are essentially three types of Republican candidates, according to this poll.

Christie, who essentially ties Clinton.
Cruz, who loses hilariously.
And everyone else, who are down by 4-5%.

Christie isn't going to win the GOP nomination. He's not right-wing enough.

A 4-point advantage for Clinton translates to something like 52-47, which is about like Obama 2008. Hillary doesn't have to be perfect: she needs simply to keep the Obama coalition intact by promising what the Republicans denied Obama. Republicans will say enough things to polarize the public. 

"We are for prosperity -- but most people will have to be poorer" has little appeal. Trying to undo same-sex marriage? That will be about as successful as undoing interracial marriage.

[Devils30]

2012 had a 72-13-10 White-Black-Hispanic split.

2016 should be around 70-13-12 and even if turnout drops it will be closer to 2012 numbers. This is a joke sample, no way it will be 7% Hispanic. Seems like a midterm sample here to me. The fact that Hillary seems to be doing very similar to Obama 2012 with each age group is a good sign for her. If Hillary is +3 with indies she is not losing!

[Ljube]

2012 had a 72-13-10 White-Black-Hispanic split.

2016 should be around 70-13-12 and even if turnout drops it will be closer to 2012 numbers. This is a joke sample, no way it will be 7% Hispanic. Seems like a midterm sample here to me. The fact that Hillary seems to be doing very similar to Obama 2012 with each age group is a good sign for her. If Hillary is +3 with indies she is not losing!

71-12-12 seems like a realistic 2016 sample to me. Blacks are sure to drop, while Hispanics are likely to increase. The sample could also be something like 72-12-11.

[Mehmentum]

Clinton's favorability rating is 50-45 in favor, which puts her in a good position overall.  She wins 46-41 to Bush, Paul and Huckabee, which means that the undecideds are equally split in their opinion of Clinton. 

All Clinton has to do is convince those 4% of people who view her favorably but are hedging their bets.  The Republicans have a much more challenging task of convincing everyone who doesn't have much of an opinion of Clinton that they're the better option.

[King]

Junk turnout.

[Devils30]

2012 had a 72-13-10 White-Black-Hispanic split.

2016 should be around 70-13-12 and even if turnout drops it will be closer to 2012 numbers. This is a joke sample, no way it will be 7% Hispanic. Seems like a midterm sample here to me. The fact that Hillary seems to be doing very similar to Obama 2012 with each age group is a good sign for her. If Hillary is +3 with indies she is not losing!

71-12-12 seems like a realistic 2016 sample to me. Blacks are sure to drop, while Hispanics are likely to increase. The sample could also be something like 72-12-11

   
Yeah, 71-12-12 is realistic. Black turnout isn't guaranteed to fall, but I doubt it will outpace whites again. The Dems did fine with it this year in NC, GA senate races and VA governor last year. Something like 70.5-12.5-12 may be it.

[Likely Voter]

Since 1992 the average drop in the white vote each election has been 3%. In 2012 it only dropped 2% but the Romney strategy assumed it wouldn't drop at all.  To be safe the GOP should at least assume 70% white vote, they may get lucky and have it be only 71% but they certainly shouldn't make plans around that. But for sure it isn't going to be 74% like this poll.

If I had to bet, I would say 70 white, 12 black, 12 Hispanic, 4 Asian, 2 other

That being said, as the election gets closer the Hillary numbers with the GOPers should tighten. The Romney number here is a good indication of generic GOPer. He is vetted and has 100% name ID. So just like the GOP shouldn't bet on the white vote, the Dems shouldn't bet that Hillary's leads in other polls is going to hold.

[IceSpear]

Demographic breakdown:
White 74%    LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

Junk poll! Did they forget to switch back to RVs?

As of now, this looks like a huge outlier.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Just because of name recognition.  If he wasn't the GOP nominee in 2012, the poll would be different.