WV-2016: A Thread

[Potus]

The elections a few weeks ago confirmed the definitely Republican trend in West Virginia like no poll ever could. Republicans seized control of the House of Delegates by huge margins. The GOP also, unexpectedly, took over the State Senate. Straight ticket Republican votes reached a record high. We elected the first Republican to the Senate since the 1950's. We're sending an all-Republican congressional delegation to Washington.

So what does this mean for the path ahead? My projection is that we turn into a deep red state at all levels. A sort of mini-Texas. In 2016, all of our constitutional officers are up for re-election along with a whole new class of State Senators and the entire House of Delegates.

Potential Candidates for Governor

Democrats

Natalie Tennant is a very ambitious individual. She's still stuck on her own electability. Report from Charleston from a weeks ago is that she "doesn't understand how she lost."She ran for governor in the 2011 special election, has an easily-attacked record as Secretary of State, and earned the ire of the most powerful and most well-liked political operation in the Republican Party. She could very well run, however I give her pretty bad odds in the primary. She has no chance in the primary if she keeps trying to pretend to be a bluedog.

Joe Manchin misses getting stuff done. That is the major driver behind his distaste with the Senate. When he was governor, he got to go to a meeting and come out with a finished product that he could sign a few days later. He fell like he was making a difference. Before the 2014 elections, I gave Manchin a 75% of running. After Republicans took over the whole legislature, I think those chances dropped to 35-40%. He doesn't want to come back to Charleston and have it become a mess of gridlock.

Rick Thompson is a name that doesn't get a huge level of play. I don't know a ton about him, but I know people that are fairly close to him. He's very establishment-minded as a former Speaker of the House and then member of the cabinet. He ran in the 2011 Special Election, he's young enough to run again, and he seems a fairly likable guy. Name ID, money, and other normal campaign obstacles will be significant for him.

An ambitious state legislator could run. There are any number of Democratic legislators who think they're meant for bigger things. Before 2014, I was going to say Doug Skaff was a potential candidate. Following his DUI and defeat, he is now off the list. People tend to work out who's running for what from within their legislative caucus. There aren't isn't a huge tendency for multiple legislators to run. One legislator will emerge to fill the gap.

A Constitutional Officer such as John Perdue or Glen Gainer. Gainer was just crushed by McKinley in the 1st District Congressional. They're both older, very nice people, but not exactly cut out for modern politics. Ag Commissioner Walt Helmick inspires a surprising amount of hate because of his laxness on the EPA after the Eastern Panhandle farming controversies.

Outgoing Senate President Jeff Kessler has expressed interest in the job before. There's been no development after the 2014 elections about his intentions. I wouldn't be surprised if this was fairly dispiriting.

Republicans

Attorney General Patrick Morrisey was elected in 2012 over the long-entrenched Darrell McGraw. The business organizations adore him. From his position as Attorney General, he's led on a lot of issues the base, and the general electorate, eats up. He's got incredible fundraising potential, has kept up an aggressive constituent relations regimen while in office, and is generally looked well upon outside of the Democratic Party leadership.

Congressman David McKinley ran for Governor once upon a time. He enjoys being an executive type, though he likes the House well enough. He has made his seat very safe by running three great campaigns and doing well in Washington. If he chooses to pursue his old interest of being governor, he starts off with a strong northern base. This is important because a lot of GOP Voters in the Southern part of the start aren't registered Republicans and can't vote in the primary.

Senate President Bill Cole is a formidable political force. He worked very hard to elected Republicans in state legislative races. He also has the ability to self-fund in a substantial way. He was chosen as the Senate President because of that work. Business types love him. His work in the legislative races have built up a repertoire of good will in all reaches of the party.

State Senator Mitch Carmichael would be a strong candidate from the Republican Senate caucus if Cole chooses not to run. He's got great people skills, is strong on the stump, and is also a telecommunication executive with a potent fundraising ability. He's well-liked in the rest of the caucus which opens up a lot of doors in terms of fundraising. He also ran in the 2011 Special.

The House caucus could put forward a candidate. I'd say there is a draw toward staying in the legislature now that we're the majority. Racking up committee memberships and joining leadership could built a much stronger political base in the future. However, it wouldn't surprise me if someone from the House ran.

John [inks]ing Raese could run again. Standard fare. Spends bunch of his own money, lose, move along.

[Potus]

Another interesting question that no one seems to be asking : Is Earl Ray Tomblin actually term-limited? He was elected to his "first term" in a Special Election and was re-elected to a full term one year later. I'm not sure if there is legal precedent on this issue. I suppose he could challenge that idea in court and maybe be eligible to run.

However, after the veto of the pain-capable abortion ban and his generally bad record as governor, I would say he doesn't want to run again.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The other thing to consider I guess, is what are the GOP planning to do with their new majority? They of course need to be wary of a backlash a la Colorado Democrats. The obvious red button issue would be right-to-work legislation.

[henster]

Tennant really had no business running for Senate this year she probably destroyed whatever chance she had for Governor in 2014.

[KCDem]

RIP West Virginia Democrats. Sheep gonna get slaughtered.

[IceSpear]

The other thing to consider I guess, is what are the GOP planning to do with their new majority? They of course need to be wary of a backlash a la Colorado Democrats. The obvious red button issue would be right-to-work legislation.

Considering the overwhelming strength of the trend, I'm not sure anything could cause a big enough backlash to matter. It would probably end up being like the backlash in Kansas this cycle. Pretty substantial, but just too red of a state to actually change the results.

[Frodo]

Would you happen to know how many remaining conservative Democrats in the legislature are planning on switching parties now that the GOP will be controlling the legislature in January?  I am sure these numbers:

House

Republicans: 64
Democrats: 36

Senate

Republicans: 18
Democrats: 16

will be changing quite a bit next year before the dust settles in time for the next election. 

[Potus]

Would you happen to know how many remaining conservative Democrats in the legislature are planning on switching parties now that the GOP will be controlling the legislature in January?  I am sure these numbers:

House

Republicans: 64
Democrats: 36

Senate

Republicans: 18
Democrats: 16

will be changing quite a bit next year before the dust settles in time for the next election. 

I expect these to change, but not as a result of the elections. I expect any party switching to happen following critical votes like on abortion or tort reform. That sort of thing.

[Indy Texas]

The other thing to consider I guess, is what are the GOP planning to do with their new majority? They of course need to be wary of a backlash a la Colorado Democrats. The obvious red button issue would be right-to-work legislation.

They need to be aware of their constituency and dance with them that brung 'em.

A West Virginia Republican simply cannot govern the way a Texas or Arizona or Florida Republican can govern. There aren't enough well-off suburbanites in gated communities and office parks. There aren't a lot of local business interests outside of coal. If they make it harder to get food stamps in WV, those people are going to get pretty damn pissed off. They can't point the finger at the non-whites because there are none to scapegoat like in someplace like Georgia or North Carolina.

I'm not sure what the WV GOP will do with their power. It's not as if Big Coal hasn't been getting what it wants with the Democrats in power anyway. They could try to do something about the alarming number of people there who are all hopped up on Oxycontin and meth and smoking like chimneys. But that, again, would require government action.

[Potus]

Republicans are targeting legal reform for one of their top legislative priorities. Leg refirm has been a major talking point for WVGOP candidates and officials for years. The reforms will likely be fought by a trial lawyer, loud Minority. Resisted by the same people who fought for sue-and-settle.

The latest WVDEM scandal is swirling around Delegate Romano. He collects a paycheck from being both a county commissioner and a delegate. There was a 1991 opinion that said this was not legal. The drumbeat of resignation is loud. If he doesn't resign, it's very likely he'll lose.

[Potus]

Also, committee appointments look great for passing conservative legislation. Expect action on natural gas, education, etc.

[Flake]

RIP West Virginia Democrats, HP's.

[Indy Texas]

Republicans are targeting legal reform for one of their top legislative priorities. Leg refirm has been a major talking point for WVGOP candidates and officials for years. The reforms will likely be fought by a trial lawyer, loud Minority. Resisted by the same people who fought for sue-and-settle.

The latest WVDEM scandal is swirling around Delegate Romano. He collects a paycheck from being both a county commissioner and a delegate. There was a 1991 opinion that said this was not legal. The drumbeat of resignation is loud. If he doesn't resign, it's very likely he'll lose.

We'll see how the Mountaineers like it when they get life-ruining injuries from the coal jobs the evil Democrats were killing and their employer is allowed to skate by with paper-thin workers' comp coverage and a pittance of a settlement. Then it's back to the trailer to do some more Oxy and meth to numb the pain.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I'm not sure what the WV GOP will do with their power. It's not as if Big Coal hasn't been getting what it wants with the Democrats in power anyway. They could try to do something about the alarming number of people there who are all hopped up on Oxycontin and meth and smoking like chimneys. But that, again, would require government action.

This implies that the Republicans in West Virginia (or most states or Congress, but that's another story..) have any serious, even vaguely coherent plan to enact legislation-other than throwing red meat to their primary electorate while continuing to support whatever business interests they are beholden to.

[IceSpear]

Republicans are targeting legal reform for one of their top legislative priorities. Leg refirm has been a major talking point for WVGOP candidates and officials for years. The reforms will likely be fought by a trial lawyer, loud Minority. Resisted by the same people who fought for sue-and-settle.

The latest WVDEM scandal is swirling around Delegate Romano. He collects a paycheck from being both a county commissioner and a delegate. There was a 1991 opinion that said this was not legal. The drumbeat of resignation is loud. If he doesn't resign, it's very likely he'll lose.

We'll see how the Mountaineers like it when they get life-ruining injuries from the coal jobs the evil Democrats were killing and their employer is allowed to skate by with paper-thin workers' comp coverage and a pittance of a settlement. Then it's back to the trailer to do some more Oxy and meth to numb the pain.

"Obama's fault"

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Anything about Booth Goodwin running?

[Potus]

Manchin is defending accomplishments as governor.

[Potus]

In the State of the State, Governor Tomblin took aim at tort reform advocates and defended highway tolls.

Little bit of back story on the tolls: People supported the tolls because  they were sold as a means of financing the Turnpike. The tolls would be gone when the debt was gone. The Democratic majority refused to act on actually closing the toll booths. Republicans campaigned on the toll issue in Kanawha.

[Potus]

Anything about Booth Goodwin running?

Booth Goodwin is not a prominent figure. Not much of a network outside of Manchin.

[Potus]

Former State Senator Steve Harrison takes office as Clerk of the House.

Harrison is a former congressional candidate and State Senator. This keeps his foot in the door in case of a future run for higher office.

[RogueBeaver]

Manchin shakes up his PAC, says he'll decide on guv in the next few months.

[Potus]

Kessler running for Governor.

Kessler will be the closest to a progressive in the primary, most likely. He's actually a pretty good candidate for the progressives within the WV Democratic Party in that he can also appeal to the broader, more traditional Democratic primary base. He'll likely run as the strongest candidate significantly to the Left on the political spectrum. Definitely to the left of Manchin. In fact, he came out criticizing Governor Tomblin for being afraid of bold leadership.

Tennant files pre-candidacy paperwork for re-election.

Now, this should be taken with a grain of salt. It creates a vehicle for raising money and spending on campaign-like expenditures in a statewide race. She could roll it over into a gubernatorial campaign. Never underestimate Natalie Tennant's inability to understand that she cannot win.


Again, a few folks to watch on the Democratic side:

Walt Helmick. I mentioned him above in the original post. He's an ambitious guy. I've heard he's a skilled, glad-handing type of politician. Like I said, lots of opposition of him by farmers because he was weak with the EPA on farming controversies in the Eastern Panhandle. Since then, he's also neglected to speak up for reforming the tank law that regulated milk like it was oil. Lots of base anger at him.

Nick Casey. It's looking like the closet-liberal Democratic establishment will have Kessler. If Kessler stays out, Casey could run.

Joe Manchin. Obvious. Frontrunner if he gets in.

Meshea Poore could run as an insurgent progressive. That's the role she played in the 2014 2nd District Primary. Not likely to be nominated.

[Miles]

Also, what are the odds Democrats hold Kessler's Senate seat? His district narrowly elected a Republican last year, IIRC.

[Potus]

What are the chances that Manchin runs now that Kessler is in?

I think Manchin's chances are mostly affected by the Republican willingness to neuter the Governor. I've said this before, Manchin might come back because he wants to get things done again. If he doesn't think he can do that, then there is no reason to come back.

Also, what are the odds Democrats hold Kessler's Senate seat? His district narrowly elected a Republican last year, IIRC.

He serves with Kent Leonhardt who was just recently elected. Leonhardt was a good candidate, but he was also running against an entrenched incumbent. Leonhardt didn't get any help from the business groups like BIC and the Chamber. The same will not be said of the candidate for Kessler's seat. I seriously, seriously doubt Democrats hold the seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Manchin has been polling, he'd trounce Morrissey and other Pubs. Will decide by Memorial Day.