Why did Paul Davis lose?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:52:03 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Why did Paul Davis lose?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Why did Paul Davis lose?  (Read 8571 times)
The Arizonan
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,543
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 27, 2014, 12:35:45 AM »

Why did Paul Davis lose? Kansas was really hurting under Governor Brownback and several Republican politicians endorsed Paul Davis.

And did picking Jill Docking as a running mate hurt Paul Davis?
Logged
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2014, 12:38:20 AM »

Because Kansas in 2014.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2014, 12:40:59 AM »

Brownback rode the massive republican wave to victory.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2014, 01:15:05 AM »

Brownback rode the massive republican wave to victory.
Logged
Anonymouse
Rookie
**
Posts: 76
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2014, 01:19:59 AM »

If someone could make 2002-2014 swing/trend maps, it would verify something. Barring that, it appears Democrats do better these days in suburban Johnson County while totally collapsing in most of the rest of the state. Probably due to to the national focus on social issues and the state focus on public education (rural Kansas schools are a dying breed and it affects fewer and fewer people)? End result: Democrats lose.

just for lulz: Ellis County (historically Democratic western Kansas enclave, comprised largely of German-American Catholics) 2002/2014: 62%/53%

That's a significant shift.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2014, 01:29:54 AM »

Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2014, 01:37:47 AM »

Why did Paul Davis lose? Kansas was really hurting under Governor Brownback and several Republican politicians endorsed Paul Davis.

And did picking Jill Docking as a running mate hurt Paul Davis?

If anything, picking Jill Docking probably helped him.
Logged
Anonymouse
Rookie
**
Posts: 76
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2014, 01:42:12 AM »


In other news, Nixon rode the massive anti-McGovern wave to victory in 1972!

You guys actually to want to add something of substance, or am I wasting my time? Wink
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2014, 01:45:47 AM »


In other news, Nixon rode the massive anti-McGovern wave to victory in 1972!

You guys actually to want to add something of substance, or am I wasting my time? Wink

There isn't really a reason beyond that and Kansas is super Republican and turnout wasn't great.
Logged
Anonymouse
Rookie
**
Posts: 76
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2014, 01:55:37 AM »


In other news, Nixon rode the massive anti-McGovern wave to victory in 1972!

You guys actually to want to add something of substance, or am I wasting my time? Wink

There isn't really a reason beyond that and Kansas is super Republican and turnout wasn't great.

Hey, man. I'm trying to restore the oldAtlas standard of "don't say anything if you have nothing original/surprising/interesting" to contribute, at least re: elections. Stop humoring them! Wink
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2014, 01:57:27 AM »


In other news, Nixon rode the massive anti-McGovern wave to victory in 1972!

You guys actually to want to add something of substance, or am I wasting my time? Wink

Occam's Razor. It's not that complicated. Even if the year was only mildly good for Republicans, Brownback still would've lost.
Logged
Anonymouse
Rookie
**
Posts: 76
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2014, 02:22:57 AM »


In other news, Nixon rode the massive anti-McGovern wave to victory in 1972!

You guys actually to want to add something of substance, or am I wasting my time? Wink

Occam's Razor. It's not that complicated. Even if the year was only mildly good for Republicans, Brownback still would've lost.

Okay. Again, do you have anything to add, man? I'mn not trying to be a jerk. I'm decrying the degraded level of analysis here. Please don't try to use Occam's Razor again? And please don't hit me with Godwin's Law because of this post?

Dude, learn your history and culture- with regards to U.S. elections- and this is so much fun. It takes some time but lurk more.Smiley
Logged
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,094
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2014, 04:04:19 AM »

It's still Kansas.

Nothing to see here, move on.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2014, 04:37:08 AM »


In other news, Nixon rode the massive anti-McGovern wave to victory in 1972!

You guys actually to want to add something of substance, or am I wasting my time? Wink

Occam's Razor. It's not that complicated. Even if the year was only mildly good for Republicans, Brownback still would've lost.

Okay. Again, do you have anything to add, man? I'mn not trying to be a jerk. I'm decrying the degraded level of analysis here. Please don't try to use Occam's Razor again? And please don't hit me with Godwin's Law because of this post?

Dude, learn your history and culture- with regards to U.S. elections- and this is so much fun. It takes some time but lurk more.Smiley

My bad. Davis actually lost because 42 year old feminist soccer moms in suburban Kansas turned against him due to the strip club story. Is that better?
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,043
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2014, 04:41:09 AM »

What bothers me more is that the polls were consistently so off.  Davis led all eight polls issued after October 12th.  Similar story for Orman.

Lesson learned: do not trust Kansas polling, because no matter what, the Republican wins anyway.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2014, 04:49:02 AM »

What bothers me more is that the polls were consistently so off.  Davis led all eight polls issued after October 12th.  Similar story for Orman.

Lesson learned: do not trust Kansas polling, because no matter what, the Republican wins anyway.

Well, I doubt we'll be in a situation where a Democrat leads in any Kansas polls anytime soon. Tongue
Logged
Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,528
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.42, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2014, 06:38:59 AM »

Kansas + GOP wave = Metaphysical Certitude R.
Logged
LeBron
LeBron FitzGerald
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,906
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2014, 06:11:26 PM »

3 things in particular:

1) Brownback waited until 2 months before the election to start airing ads of his own defending his record, and the RGA also came in to bail Brownback out and ran ads comparing Davis to Obama, supporting tax increases and stuff like that.

2) It was leaked that Davis was at a strip club in the 90s which was raided by the police for drugs, and given that Kansas is in the Bible Belt, that presumably did hurt him.

3) The Republican wave + the Mega-Hackish Kansas voters
Logged
justfollowingtheelections
unempprof
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,766


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2014, 06:19:13 PM »

Because of the D next to his name.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 27, 2014, 06:20:12 PM »

Republican state, wave, Davis' record, Brownback convincing enough moderates to stick with him.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2014, 06:56:30 PM »

The suddenly competitive Senate race meant that national figures, who were beginning to write off Brownback (heck, he could have been cast by anti-Tea figures as a warning to GOP purists), had to rush in to defend the Senate seat. The infusion of anti-Ormanism probably sunk Davis as well.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2014, 07:22:43 PM »

No one has referenced "What's Wrong with Kansas?"


Even as a joke or passing reference? Tongue

Logged
GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2014, 07:37:56 PM »

3 things in particular:

1) Brownback waited until 2 months before the election to start airing ads of his own defending his record, and the RGA also came in to bail Brownback out and ran ads comparing Davis to Obama, supporting tax increases and stuff like that.

2) It was leaked that Davis was at a strip club in the 90s which was raided by the police for drugs, and given that Kansas is in the Bible Belt, that presumably did hurt him.

3) The Republican wave + the Mega-Hackish Kansas voters

Not really.  Maybe on the OK/KS border or near SW Missouri, but otherwise, no.
Logged
Citizen (The) Doctor
ArchangelZero
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,391
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2014, 09:55:37 PM »

No one has referenced "What's Wrong with Kansas?"


Even as a joke or passing reference? Tongue



Frank isn't necessarily wrong -- Kansas does seem to have Republicanism infused into its culture. He just wasn't very scientific about his conclusions.
Logged
Türkisblau
H_Wallace
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,402
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2014, 11:34:36 PM »


In other news, Nixon rode the massive anti-McGovern wave to victory in 1972!

You guys actually to want to add something of substance, or am I wasting my time? Wink

Occam's Razor. It's not that complicated. Even if the year was only mildly good for Republicans, Brownback still would've lost.

Okay. Again, do you have anything to add, man? I'mn not trying to be a jerk. I'm decrying the degraded level of analysis here. Please don't try to use Occam's Razor again? And please don't hit me with Godwin's Law because of this post?

Dude, learn your history and culture- with regards to U.S. elections- and this is so much fun. It takes some time but lurk more.Smiley

You sound like a real asshole.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 12 queries.