Why did Paul Davis lose?

[Beet]

Right before the election, a Dem operative was caught on tape listing off a bunch of towns in Kansas and calling them sh_tholes, or something like that. The typical self defeating elitist attitude of a lot of liberals.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Right before the election, a Dem operative was caught on tape listing off a bunch of towns in Kansas and calling them sh_tholes, or something like that. The typical self defeating elitist attitude of a lot of liberals.

I doubt it had much impact, but it is basically the inverse of the "real american Sarah Palin line". Not surprisingly it works just as well, also.

[IceSpear]

Brownback rode the massive republican wave to victory.

In other news, Nixon rode the massive anti-McGovern wave to victory in 1972!

You guys actually to want to add something of substance, or am I wasting my time?

Occam's Razor. It's not that complicated. Even if the year was only mildly good for Republicans, Brownback still would've lost.

Okay. Again, do you have anything to add, man? I'mn not trying to be a jerk. I'm decrying the degraded level of analysis here. Please don't try to use Occam's Razor again? And please don't hit me with Godwin's Law because of this post?

Dude, learn your history and culture- with regards to U.S. elections- and this is so much fun. It takes some time but lurk more.

You sound like a real asshole.

Not to mention his pretentiousness is completely unwarranted. His sole contribution to this thread is "muh suburbs trending D, muh rurals trending R". You know, the same thing that's happening almost everywhere. Hardly groundbreaking or insightful analysis.

[Cape Verde]

The suddenly competitive Senate race meant that national figures, who were beginning to write off Brownback (heck, he could have been cast by anti-Tea figures as a warning to GOP purists), had to rush in to defend the Senate seat. The infusion of anti-Ormanism probably sunk Davis as well.

In a state where the opponent's party dominates the political scene, you should probably run a relatively quiet campaign. This helps because A) the opponent party won't divert a lot of resource to defeat you, and more importantly B) making a big hype about the election would cause voters who traditionally elected candidates of the opponent's party feel like they are voting you at a high cost.     

Of course, Davis couldn't run a silent campaign when national media began to pay attention to the Kansas Senate race. Furthermore, now the democrats and liberals of Kansas began to put its resources into both races (although Orman was an independent candidate).

I believe Pat Roberts (whether he intended or not) saved both his seat and Sam Brownsback's political career. What a savvy, experienced politician!

[Anonymouse]

You sound like a real asshole.

Yeah, looking back, I wouldn't have written that again, for what it's worth.

re: my post, I didn't expect it to be seen as some mindblowing revelation, but it's quantifiable and it does explain some things.

[TDAS04]

Because Kansas in 2014.

[Bojack Horseman]

[ElectionsGuy]

Republican wave + deceptive polling = Brownback win

This seriously had to be one of the worst polled states of the cycle.

[CountryClassSF]

Why did Paul Davis lose? Kansas was really hurting under Governor Brownback and several Republican politicians endorsed Paul Davis.

And did picking Jill Docking as a running mate hurt Paul Davis?

Simple. Democrats tried to oust Roberts by pretending their candidate was an independent, forcing their own candidate out of the race. Roberts received funds, and the Republican turnout soared. Deaniac "50 state strategy - OMG we can win anywhere OMG!" helped put Brownback over the top. Thanks guys!

I guess the real Kansas decided jobs were more important than appeasing unionists.

[Mister Mets]

Because Kansas is really Republican, and it was a good cycle for the party.

[Türkisblau]

Why did Paul Davis lose? Kansas was really hurting under Governor Brownback and several Republican politicians endorsed Paul Davis.

And did picking Jill Docking as a running mate hurt Paul Davis?

Simple. Democrats tried to oust Roberts by pretending their candidate was an independent, forcing their own candidate out of the race. Roberts received funds, and the Republican turnout soared. Deaniac "50 state strategy - OMG we can win anywhere OMG!" helped put Brownback over the top. Thanks guys!

I guess the real Kansas decided jobs were more important than appeasing unionists.

You should really educate yourself on the success of the Dean strategy - too bad he's not really around anymore.

Have you noticed how much of a partisan hack you sound?

[CountryClassSF]

Why did Paul Davis lose? Kansas was really hurting under Governor Brownback and several Republican politicians endorsed Paul Davis.

And did picking Jill Docking as a running mate hurt Paul Davis?

Simple. Democrats tried to oust Roberts by pretending their candidate was an independent, forcing their own candidate out of the race. Roberts received funds, and the Republican turnout soared. Deaniac "50 state strategy - OMG we can win anywhere OMG!" helped put Brownback over the top. Thanks guys!

I guess the real Kansas decided jobs were more important than appeasing unionists.

You should really educate yourself on the success of the Dean strategy - too bad he's not really around anymore.

Have you noticed how much of a partisan hack you sound?

Where did I claim to not be partisan? The Dean strategy was great until the Obama era, when conservaDems and moderate Dems were afraid to say no to ObamaCare or no to some of the radical judges.  The 90%+ voting records with Obama were there state after state after state.  So, while the Dean strategy worked in the short term of getting Democrats elected in red states, the candidates chose to march in lockstep w/ Obama.  Many Senators and Congressman blatantly voted against the will of the electorate, and paid the price at the ballot box.

I was refering to races like  Kansas (Roberts+~11), Kentucky (McConnell +~16), Iowa (Ernst +~9) and Arkansas (Cotton +~17).  Wouldn't Kay Hagan or Mark Udall or Mark Begich, who lost by around 2 points or less, loved to have received some of the PAC money that went to Orman, the DSCC money that went to Grimes and Pryor and Braley. To be fair to the Democrats, a lot of the polling showed closer races than let on, but objectively speaking, the RCP average showed clear advantages for Cotton and McConnell.

So, the point I'm making is, the 50 state strategy sort of hurt here. The desire for Kentucky and Kansas, and the millions and millions of dollars Democrats put into those double digit losses, as with Arkansas, which were simply not even close, could've been spent in races that were close, and *may* have saved the Democrats 3 seats.

Oh----In Kansas for example, Republicans made a big investment with the entire calvary coming in for Roberts.  This likely increased GOP turnout and helped Brownback, who actually did have a close race. So I'd argue that yes, it's possible Paul Davis would be Gov-elect today if the Democrats hadn't decided to make a play for the Senate seat.

[KCDem]

^Please name one radical judge. One.

[Maxwell]

They definitely should've triaged Grimes and Pryor when they had the chance.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

^Please name one radical judge. One.

Any who disagree with him.

[rbt48]

Sure, Kansas is Republican through and through.  But, in checking I found that for the 60 year period through 2018, Kansas will have had a Democratic governor for 30 years versus 30 for Republicans (a tie only achieved through Brownback's victory).  These Democrats are, from 1958 in order, George Docking, Robert Docking, John W. Carlin, Joan Finney, and Kathleen Sebelius. 

Personally, I was surprised that Brownback didn't lose, in part due to the polls, as well as the states history of not hesitating to elect a Democrat to govern.  Clearly, to me, the huge effort to pull Roberts to victory helped to drag Brownback to his reelection.

[morgieb]

The only thing that I don't get is how the polling was so off.

[publicunofficial]

The only thing that I don't get is how the polling was so off.

Bad Likely Voter screens. People that were expected to turn out didn't.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

3 things in particular:

1) Brownback waited until 2 months before the election to start airing ads of his own defending his record, and the RGA also came in to bail Brownback out and ran ads comparing Davis to Obama, supporting tax increases and stuff like that.

2) It was leaked that Davis was at a strip club in the 90s which was raided by the police for drugs, and given that Kansas is in the Bible Belt, that presumably did hurt him.

3) The Republican wave + the Mega-Hackish Kansas voters

Two questions:

1. Is Kansas really a Bible Belt state?  I realize it's mostly conservative, but it's not like most Southern states.  The strip club thing didn't seem to hurt Davis much in the polls; he was leading in many of them even after that.

2. "Mega-hackish Kansas voters?"  In the same state that elected Kathleen Sebelius?

Anyway, I think the GOP had a big turnout advantage, coupled with the fact that the polls this year had a pro-Democrat slant.