What SHOULD have happened?

[Free Bird]

Which senators/challengers were supposed to have won/lost but were either sunk by or rode the wave?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

HAGEN, BEGICH AND ORMAN were suppose to win in order for us to advert the G O P wave and both of the winded up losing.

[Free Bird]

HAGEN, BEGICH AND ORMAN were suppose to win in order for us to advert the G O P wave and both of the winded up losing.

Okay seriously dude who is this "we" you always refer to?

[Talleyrand]

Begich was definitely sunk by the wave, as were Hagan and Udall. The sheer closeness of these races (how Colorado was decided by less than two points in spite of a disastrous campaign by Udall and an amazing effort by Gardner) suggests they would have all held on in a better environment.

I don't see any of the other races changing. Joni Ernst won such a clear-cut victory over Braley that I'd guess she would have won even if this had been a marginally better year for Democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

In a neutral year, Hagan, Begich, and Udall wouldn't have lost, and Shaheen and Warner would win by more than 5 points. The Republicans would still take the Senate though by adding 6 seats (WV, SD, MT, AR, LA, and IA) as 2014 was a set back from the 2008 wave.

In the house, the Republicans wouldn't pick up AZ-02, IL-10, IA-01, ME-02, NH-01, NV-04, TX-23, and UT-4 (as crazy as that sounds), and overall the open and vulnerable republican incumbents would have much closer races. So basically Republicans would pick up 5 seats or so, so not nearly as big of a change as we saw.

HAGEN, BEGICH AND ORMAN were suppose to win in order for us to advert the G O P wave and both of the winded up losing.

Okay seriously dude who is this "we" you always refer to?

The Democratic Party, of course.

[Vega]

Had enough African-Americans turned out, Shaheen and Warner would have hung on and avoided a close race respectively.

[KCDem]

Had enough African-Americans turned out, Shaheen and Warner would have hung on and avoided a close race respectively.

Shaheen won.

[Vega]

Had enough African-Americans turned out, Shaheen and Warner would have hung on and avoided a close race respectively.

Shaheen won.

I meant Hagan. Silly me.

[Vosem]

Had enough African-Americans turned out, Shaheen and Warner would have hung on and avoided a close race respectively.

New Hampshire is 1.1% African American.

[Mr. Illini]

^That should have happened. The biggest shock of the night for me.

[hopper]

In a neutral year, Hagan, Begich, and Udall wouldn't have lost, and Shaheen and Warner would win by more than 5 points. The Republicans would still take the Senate though by adding 6 seats (WV, SD, MT, AR, LA, and IA) as 2014 was a set back from the 2008 wave.

In the house, the Republicans wouldn't pick up AZ-02, IL-10, IA-01, ME-02, NH-01, NV-04, TX-23, and UT-4 (as crazy as that sounds), and overall the open and vulnerable republican incumbents would have much closer races. So basically Republicans would pick up 5 seats or so, so not nearly as big of a change as we saw.

HAGEN, BEGICH AND ORMAN were suppose to win in order for us to advert the G O P wave and both of the winded up losing.

Okay seriously dude who is this "we" you always refer to?

The Democratic Party, of course.

Yeah but don't forget McSally almost beat Barber in 2012 though.

NH-01 keeps on switching party representation.

[tmthforu94]

What should have happened?

Well, based on demographics, it makes complete sense that Begich lost. He was considered vulnerable the second the was projected the winner in 2008. Hagan was also considered vulnerable - two years ago, if you had told me she was going to lose I would not have been surprised.

I think Braley should have won. He was defending a Democratic seat and Iowa strikes me as the type of state that would want a split delegation. He also faced a very conservative opponent. Warner should have won by a more comfortable margin, but I think that may have just been due to a poor campaign. Udall also probably should have won, given that the state has trended Democratic since 2008.