Where would Hawaii's third Congressional District be?

[Vega]

If in the 2020 census, Hawaii's population grows a good bit, and a third congressional district is needed, where it would be?

[ElectionsGuy]

There would be two districts within Oahu alone, with the 3rd being the rest of Oahu and the rest of the state.

But I don't think it will happen

[Vega]

I doubt it will either. It's fun to speculate about, though.

[Del Tachi]

It depends on where the growth is; if growth is uniform across the state then Oahu gets another district all to itself, but in the event that Hawaii gets a third district it probably means meteoric growth on at least one of the other islands - most likely the Big Island.   

[Vega]

It depends on where the growth is; if growth is uniform across the state then Oahu gets another district all to itself, but in the event that Hawaii gets a third district it probably means meteoric growth on at least one of the other islands - most likely the Big Island.   

It would be really interesting to see a exclusive Big Island congressional district, I wonder who would all run....

[Del Tachi]

It depends on where the growth is; if growth is uniform across the state then Oahu gets another district all to itself, but in the event that Hawaii gets a third district it probably means meteoric growth on at least one of the other islands - most likely the Big Island.   

It would be really interesting to see a exclusive Big Island congressional district, I wonder who would all run....

IIRC, nativist sentiment is the strongest on the island of Hawai'i.  It'd be interesting if a district based on that island could get a "pro-Hawaii" representative to Congress. 

[Vega]

It depends on where the growth is; if growth is uniform across the state then Oahu gets another district all to itself, but in the event that Hawaii gets a third district it probably means meteoric growth on at least one of the other islands - most likely the Big Island.   

It would be really interesting to see a exclusive Big Island congressional district, I wonder who would all run....

IIRC, nativist sentiment is the strongest on the island of Hawai'i.  It'd be interesting if a district based on that island could get a "pro-Hawaii" representative to Congress. 

I haven't heard that before, but it would be a shame if the traitorous natives get a seat in Congress.

[jimrtex]

If in the 2020 census, Hawaii's population grows a good bit, and a third congressional district is needed, where it would be?

Imagine if Hawaii had redistricted after the 2010 census, and then Congress decided to give them a 3rd seat (this has happened before, following the 1870 census),

If Hawaii wanted to preserve the core of its existing districts (or alternatively the core of the incumbent's support) it would let each representative choose 2/3 of his current population.  The remaining 1/3 of each would be lumped together into the 3rd open seat. 

Alternatively, it could take the Oahu district, HI-1, split it in half and give each half 1/6 of the HI-2.  Then fast forward 10 years and adjust the lines.

Based on 2010 numbers, one district would be 86% Neighbor islands, and 14% on Oahu (which is 6.5% of the population of Oahu).   So it would likely be on the north shore away from Honolulu.   Take the remainder, start in the southeast and continue westward until you reach enough population.

Currently the Neighbor islands have a small majority (57%) of HI-2, but would have 86% of a 3-district plan.  In 2014, about 64% of the vote was from the Neighbor Islands (there is a large military presence in Hawaii, and many don't vote vote in Hawaii, or vote at all).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Currently the Neighbor islands have a small majority (57%) of HI-2, but would have 86% of a 3-district plan.  In 2014, about 64% of the vote was from the Neighbor Islands (there is a large military presence in Hawaii, and many don't vote vote in Hawaii, or vote at all).

Then unless there is some affinity between North Oahu and the Neighbor Islands, perhaps the part of Oahu around the Marine Corps and Air Force bases in Southeast Oahu would make sense to let the new 3rd district be even more dominated by non-Oahuans.  Still, by 2020, if the trend from 2000 to 2010 in where population growth occurs remains unchanged, there might not be a need to include any of Oahu in a 3rd District.  To get equal population, in 2000 the 3rd district would have needed to have 17% of its population on Oahu, while in 2010 it would have needed only a little over 10%.  Given the geography, I don't see any reason why a 3 to 4% deviation from ideal district size would be a problem and with current trends, that looks like what will be the case in 2020 (3 to 4% under) and 2030 (3 to 4% over).

[politicus]

Honolulu/rest of Oahu/other islands would be the logical solution, so hopefuly the distribution would allow that.

[justfollowingtheelections]

HI-1: The same as current HI-1 minus places such as Mililani and Pearl City
HI-2: The rest of Oahu
HI-3: neighbor islands

I don't know if it works out but you get the idea. 
Anyway, if this happens, I suspect most of the population growth will be in West Oahu due to the rail, in which case HI-3 would also include parts of Oahu (the North Shore perhaps?).

[justfollowingtheelections]

It depends on where the growth is; if growth is uniform across the state then Oahu gets another district all to itself, but in the event that Hawaii gets a third district it probably means meteoric growth on at least one of the other islands - most likely the Big Island.   

It would be really interesting to see a exclusive Big Island congressional district, I wonder who would all run....

IIRC, nativist sentiment is the strongest on the island of Hawai'i.  It'd be interesting if a district based on that island could get a "pro-Hawaii" representative to Congress. 

I haven't heard that before, but it would be a shame if the traitorous natives get a seat in Congress.

Are you forgetting of a guy called Akaka?

[justfollowingtheelections]

It depends on where the growth is; if growth is uniform across the state then Oahu gets another district all to itself, but in the event that Hawaii gets a third district it probably means meteoric growth on at least one of the other islands - most likely the Big Island.   

It would be really interesting to see a exclusive Big Island congressional district, I wonder who would all run....

IIRC, nativist sentiment is the strongest on the island of Hawai'i.  It'd be interesting if a district based on that island could get a "pro-Hawaii" representative to Congress. 

Uhh.. no.  That's where the meth addicts are.

[Vega]

Thanks to everyone poster in this thread, seems like the general thought process is that HI-03 would be the rest of Ohau outside of Honolulu.

Would anyone be daring enough to create a mockup of this on a map?

[ElectionsGuy]

Thanks to everyone poster in this thread, seems like the general thought process is that HI-03 would be the rest of Ohau outside of Honolulu.

Would anyone be daring enough to create a mockup of this on a map?

Like this?

[justfollowingtheelections]

That's an interesting map.  IIRC both of Hawaii's  reps in the 114th congress are from the green one and so are some other prominent Hawaii politicians (such as Hanabusa for example).   It includes most of Honolulu's suburbs as well as military bases.  Traffic is terrible but housing is cheaper than it is on the rest of the island.  And it's expected to grow even more population-wise once the rail is built.  There are also a lot of malls here.  It feels a bit like traveling to the '80s or something.
I would say that this district would be the most likely to produce a conserva-dem representative.  If I'm not mistaken, Aiea and Pearl City are currently in HI-1.  Kaneohe probably isn't a good fit for this district (I would probably put it with Kailua (they're more upperclass areas).

The blue district has urban Honolulu where most of the older Asians who never moved to the west side of the island live, but also Polynesian immigrants and college students.  Kailua I believe is in HI-2 currently so putting them here changes the dynamics of the district a bit since it's a much wealthier and more liberal area.  I would guess this district would be more likely to produce business-friendly democrats.

The purple district would be the neighbor islands' chance to get their own candidate.  They're all of course different than each other so I'm not really sure what the candidate would be like.  This would of course be the least Asian district.  The North Shore of Oahu is where the surfing community lives.  Maui is considered the "white" island while it's not really easy to describe the Big Island or Kauai.  While this is the least urban district, I would say that it's also the least conservative.

[Vega]

Thanks EG for the map, and Blagohair for the analysis - that was exactly what I was looking for. I wish Atlas had a Reddit Gold type of feature.

That being said, it's interesting to think who would run in this district. Maybe Will Espero.

[RBH]

when i've drawn 3 district Hawaii maps, i've done it like this. The 1st district is Honolulu/etc, 2nd district is Maui/Big Island/part of Honolulu and 3rd district is part of Honolulu and Kauai.

Or the Honolulu split in map form