Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

Hmm...Likud getting to the 30th seat?  Herzog's chances sink by the day.  ZU+JL+YA+Meretz total just 53 seats, and Bibi is 6 more mandates closer to the finish line.

This election is long over Bibi has clearly won long before this (Herzog himself conceded yesterday morning, but was simply recognising the obvious).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Indeed...I should have said Herzog conceding ended any question of who gets to be PM.  My mistake.

[ag]

At least Jewish Home lost seats?

Struggling to find something positive to take away from these ghastly results.

 well ...speculation is that Obama will be summoned to Tehran so to answer for his failure and an accounting of their permissions. If a beheading is handed down, it wasn’t clear if Barack Hussein Obama will be given a week to think about it.

Yu'all are very intense on finding a mathematical political reasoning to this current election, the one I used is the difference in bloodshed.

 I mean, calculate this; will/has there been more or less bloodshed of the many Israeli creeds during a Netanyahu-Likud reign, surviving the failure of the Obama opposition, than, there was with the successful Clinton/Carville election of Ehud Barak which was proceeded with 2 years of chaos and death?

God will turn into a Philly cheese steak which you will eat for lunch while flying to Timbuktu on a cow. But not to worry: you can always make another one of clay

[Vosem]

It appears that the joint list lost a seat and will get 13, Meretz is up to 5. Likud will indeed finish with 30 and UTJ will make do with 6.

Does this mean Gal-On stays? She said she would resign if Meretz got only 4. Barely 5 is not good, but it is above the bare minimum.

[Sumner 1868]

How did Russians generally vote? They were a major factor in Labor winning 1992 and 1999, but I understand they've been right-wing in recent years.

[danny]

How did Russians generally vote? They were a major factor in Labor winning 1992 and 1999, but I understand they've been right-wing in recent years.

They were clearly an important part of the Likud electorate, and obviously for Yisrael Beitenu as well.

[danny]

On election night it was estimated that turnout was 71.8%, but it has now gone passed 72.3%, so I'm not sure how many more votes there are but there can't be many more.

[danny]

Despite splitting from Yisrael Beitenu, Likud actually gained a slight share of the vote from last time.

[Hnv1]

Shaping government:
UTJ want the health ministry (which is good and bad) and the funds knesset committee.
Shas will want the interior affairs ministry+unknown.
Liberman said he want security and he may settle for foreign affairs but BB will be facing a bloodbath in likud if one of those posts won't remain with Likud and I can't see Bennet letting Liberman get the senior job now.
JH will want internal security+unknown
Kulano will want treasury for Kachlon plus another one for Galant.

In Likud Steinitz sees himself as candidate for foreign affairs, and Arden and Katz also eye a senior ministry. Begin will probably get Law (which Yariv Levin is also eyeing).

I think Liberman will be the hard nut in this negotiation

[danny]

They might make some minor fixes but counting is basically done:

Likud: 23.4
Zionist Union: 18.67
Joint List: 10.54
Yesh Atid: 8.81
Kulanu: 7.49
Jewish Home: 6.74
Shas: 5.73
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.11
United Torah Judaism: 5.03
Meretz: 3.93
---3.25% minimum threshold-----
Yachad: 2.97
Green Leaf: 1.12

Turnout was 72.36% up from 67.77 in 2013.

Likud gets the most votes of any party in Israeli history, 985K, beating Likud 2003, which got 925K.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maps of the results - by municipality - in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area:



_{To an extent this is a test map with a generic key (for municipal and lower results) that can be used everywhere (I would use something more specific for larger territorial units). Note that 50% includes everything from that point up to the nineties.}

[Vosem]

Ilan Shohat, who was #4 on the YB Knesset list, and was therefore elected, has announced that he will not take his seat in the Knesset -- instead, MK Robert Ilatov, who was #7 on the list, will continue. Ilatov has been a Knesset member since 2006.

Under 2009/2013 results, when YB got 15 and then 11-13 seats, #4 on the YB list was basically a ticket into the Cabinet, but with the party holding only 6 seats I doubt they'll get more than 2 ministers (Lieberman and Landver, most likely).

[windjammer]

I hope Livni will become one day PM. My favourite israelIian politician.

[Famous Mortimer]

Formalities at this point but Rivlin asked Netanyahu to form a coalition.

The parties that recommended Netanyahu to Rivlin were Likud, The Jewish Home, Shas, Yisrael Beytenu, Kulanu, and United Torah Judaism. As you would expect, although it wasn't totally impossible that Kulanu and Beytenu could have recommended no one, so there's that.

Only Labor and Meretz recommended Herzog.

The Joint List and Yesh Atid made no commendation.

Formal negotiations are apparently taking longer than people would have like (even though it's only been a week). Rivlin has reported told Netanyahu to speed it up. Also, Jewish Home MK Motti Yogev proposed a bill shrinking the allotted time for negotiations from 28 to 21 days.

Former Likud MK Gideon Saar (who you may remembered toyed with the idea of a leadership challenge to Netanyahu) said he has sources who tell him Bibi is still trying to put together a national unity government with Labor. If that's true though, I suspect it's just a means of putting pressure on The Jewish Home to be more pliable.

[Hnv1]

In addition to Ilan Shochat (who is now being investigated for corruption) I understand former minister Perry from YA might resign as well.

Likud is offering JH the education ministry (which is the wet dream for every national-religious sectorist) yet Bennet with his ego wants a top minister position. If he keeps this up his party might behead him during this tenure.

[Famous Mortimer]

Incumbent MKs who lost re-election:

Likud: None.

Labor: Moshe Mizrahi (random low ranking on list), Raleb Majadele (low ranking after failing to get the most votes among Arabs)

Joint List: None

Yesh Atid: Ruth Calderon (this is sad, she had proposed making the national anthem less Jewy), Pnina Tamano-Shata (Ethiopian lady), Yifat Kariv, Dov Lipman (Orthodox rabbi who didn't except to get in even last time), Boaz Toporovsky (former head of the Student Union), Ronen Hoffman (former Laborite), Elazar Stern (defector from Hatnuah)

Kulanu: NA, no incumbents

The Jewish Home: Orit Strook (lady from Tekuma, who you may remember was the reason they didn't join Yachad), Shuli Mualem, Avi Wortzman

Yisrael Beytenu: Shimon Ohayon (Sephardic guy), Alex Miller, Leon Litinetski (former Labor MK), Robert Ilatov (sort of, YB didn't win enough seats for him to get re-elected, but the guy ahead of him on the list resigned before the Knesset was sworn in).

United Torah Judaism: Ya'akov Asher

Shas: Avraham Michaeli

Meretz: None

Yachad: Eli Yishai (defected from Shas), Yoni Chetboun (defected from Jewish Home)

I'm only including MKs who were on their party's list and lost re-election, not people who retired. Jewish Home, Shas, and Yisrael Beytenu may look like they weren't hit that hard but it's only because a lot of their MKs decided to forgo running at all.

[Famous Mortimer]

In addition to Ilan Shochat (who is now being investigated for corruption) I understand former minister Perry from YA might resign as well.

That's more like the Knesset I know and love.

I remember the last Knesset went without needing a replacement MK for like 2 years. It was actually a record in Israeli history.

If Peri resigns, this one won't have even gone a month (I'm not couting Schocat from YB though because he wasn't even sworn in).

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, if Peri resigns, Elazar Stern is next on the YA list.

[ag]

An interesting outcome of this will be the decline of the "Russians", defined as "born in the USSR". Consider the last few Knessets and compare this with the current lists. This seems to be going beyond the collapse of YB.

In the 17th Knesset there were initially 16. Two left and two joined in the course of the Knesset, so by the end it was still 16.

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Michael Nudelman (Kadima), Zeev Elkin (Kadima), Natan Shcharansky (Likud), Avracham Michaeli (Shas),  Amnon Cohen (Shas), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Yosef Shagal (YB), Yuri Stern (YB) Esterina Tartman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Zachava Gal-On (Meretz). Shcharansky and Stern eventually left, but they were joined by Yuli Edelestein (Likud) and Leon Litinsky (Labor).

In the 18th Knesset there were initially at least 15, growing to 18 in the course of the Knesset. These were:

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Robert Tiviaev (Kadima), Orit Zuaretz (Kadima), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud) Avigdor Liberman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Anastasia Michaeli (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), Amnon Cohen (Shas). Later they were joined by Yulia Shamalov (Kadima), Nino Abesadze (Kadima) and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz).

In the 19th Knesset there were initially at least 10, growing to 12 in the course of the Knesset.

Yoel Razvozov (YA), Rina Frenkel (YA), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz), later joined by Alex Miller (YB) and Leon Litenetsky (YB).

For the 20th Knesset, even taking every party at its upper limit in recent polls, it seems it will be, at best, only 8 initially, and I have hard time seeing more than 10 eventually.

Yoel Razvozov (8th for YA), Yuli Edelstein (3rd for Likud), Zeev Elkin (8th for Likud), Ksenia Svetlova (21st for ZU), Avidgor Liberman (1st for YB), Sofa Landver (3rd for YB), Avracham Michaeli (8th on Shas list) and Zachava Gal-On (1st for Meretz). In fact, I could find only two more in the spots that make it at all likely they will enter Knesset because of later resignations. Interestingly, these are the two Roberts: Robert Tiviaev (28th for ZU) and  Robert Ilatov (7th for YB). The only new face this time is Ksenia Svetlova.

So, these are the "Russians" in the 20th Knesset:

Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud), Ksenia Svetlova (ZU), Yoel Razvozov (YA), Tali Ploskov (Kulanu), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Zehava Gal-On (Meretz).

A total of 9, including Ilatov who only got his seat because Shochat decided not to take his. By place of birth it is 3 Russia (Svetlova, Razvozov, Landver), 2 Ukraine (Elkin and Edelstein - though, in the latter case, it is a bit of an accident), 2 Moldova (Liberman and Ploskov), 1 Lithuania (Gal On) and 1 Uzbekistan (Ilatov) - no Georgians this time.

Interestingly, two new MKs had to give up their Russian citizenship before beeing sworn in. One is Svetlova (onr of only two "new" MKs on this list). Another, quite unexpectedly, is Hadash's Abdullah Abu Maaruf, No. 13 on the Joint List, who went to medical school in Russia - and, I guess, got naturalized while there.

[Hnv1]

An interesting outcome of this will be the decline of the "Russians", defined as "born in the USSR". Consider the last few Knessets and compare this with the current lists. This seems to be going beyond the collapse of YB.

In the 17th Knesset there were initially 16. Two left and two joined in the course of the Knesset, so by the end it was still 16.

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Michael Nudelman (Kadima), Zeev Elkin (Kadima), Natan Shcharansky (Likud), Avracham Michaeli (Shas),  Amnon Cohen (Shas), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Yosef Shagal (YB), Yuri Stern (YB) Esterina Tartman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Zachava Gal-On (Meretz). Shcharansky and Stern eventually left, but they were joined by Yuli Edelestein (Likud) and Leon Litinsky (Labor).

In the 18th Knesset there were initially at least 15, growing to 18 in the course of the Knesset. These were:

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Robert Tiviaev (Kadima), Orit Zuaretz (Kadima), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud) Avigdor Liberman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Anastasia Michaeli (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), Amnon Cohen (Shas). Later they were joined by Yulia Shamalov (Kadima), Nino Abesadze (Kadima) and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz).

In the 19th Knesset there were initially at least 10, growing to 12 in the course of the Knesset.

Yoel Razvozov (YA), Rina Frenkel (YA), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz), later joined by Alex Miller (YB) and Leon Litenetsky (YB).

For the 20th Knesset, even taking every party at its upper limit in recent polls, it seems it will be, at best, only 8 initially, and I have hard time seeing more than 10 eventually.

Yoel Razvozov (8th for YA), Yuli Edelstein (3rd for Likud), Zeev Elkin (8th for Likud), Ksenia Svetlova (21st for ZU), Avidgor Liberman (1st for YB), Sofa Landver (3rd for YB), Avracham Michaeli (8th on Shas list) and Zachava Gal-On (1st for Meretz). In fact, I could find only two more in the spots that make it at all likely they will enter Knesset because of later resignations. Interestingly, these are the two Roberts: Robert Tiviaev (28th for ZU) and  Robert Ilatov (7th for YB). The only new face this time is Ksenia Svetlova.

So, these are the "Russians" in the 20th Knesset:

Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud), Ksenia Svetlova (ZU), Yoel Razvozov (YA), Tali Ploskov (Kulanu), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Zehava Gal-On (Meretz).

A total of 9, including Ilatov who only got his seat because Shochat decided not to take his. By place of birth it is 3 Russia (Svetlova, Razvozov, Landver), 2 Ukraine (Elkin and Edelstein - though, in the latter case, it is a bit of an accident), 2 Moldova (Liberman and Ploskov), 1 Lithuania (Gal On) and 1 Uzbekistan (Ilatov) - no Georgians this time.

Interestingly, two new MKs had to give up their Russian citizenship before beeing sworn in. One is Svetlova (onr of only two "new" MKs on this list). Another, quite unexpectedly, is Hadash's Abdullah Abu Maaruf, No. 13 on the Joint List, who went to medical school in Russia - and, I guess, got naturalized while there.

Not an expert on USSR immigration policy but I assume Maaruf married whilst studying\married a soviet citizen

[ag]

An interesting outcome of this will be the decline of the "Russians", defined as "born in the USSR". Consider the last few Knessets and compare this with the current lists. This seems to be going beyond the collapse of YB.

In the 17th Knesset there were initially 16. Two left and two joined in the course of the Knesset, so by the end it was still 16.

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Michael Nudelman (Kadima), Zeev Elkin (Kadima), Natan Shcharansky (Likud), Avracham Michaeli (Shas),  Amnon Cohen (Shas), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Yosef Shagal (YB), Yuri Stern (YB) Esterina Tartman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Zachava Gal-On (Meretz). Shcharansky and Stern eventually left, but they were joined by Yuli Edelestein (Likud) and Leon Litinsky (Labor).

In the 18th Knesset there were initially at least 15, growing to 18 in the course of the Knesset. These were:

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Robert Tiviaev (Kadima), Orit Zuaretz (Kadima), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud) Avigdor Liberman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Anastasia Michaeli (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), Amnon Cohen (Shas). Later they were joined by Yulia Shamalov (Kadima), Nino Abesadze (Kadima) and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz).

In the 19th Knesset there were initially at least 10, growing to 12 in the course of the Knesset.

Yoel Razvozov (YA), Rina Frenkel (YA), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz), later joined by Alex Miller (YB) and Leon Litenetsky (YB).

For the 20th Knesset, even taking every party at its upper limit in recent polls, it seems it will be, at best, only 8 initially, and I have hard time seeing more than 10 eventually.

Yoel Razvozov (8th for YA), Yuli Edelstein (3rd for Likud), Zeev Elkin (8th for Likud), Ksenia Svetlova (21st for ZU), Avidgor Liberman (1st for YB), Sofa Landver (3rd for YB), Avracham Michaeli (8th on Shas list) and Zachava Gal-On (1st for Meretz). In fact, I could find only two more in the spots that make it at all likely they will enter Knesset because of later resignations. Interestingly, these are the two Roberts: Robert Tiviaev (28th for ZU) and  Robert Ilatov (7th for YB). The only new face this time is Ksenia Svetlova.

So, these are the "Russians" in the 20th Knesset:

Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud), Ksenia Svetlova (ZU), Yoel Razvozov (YA), Tali Ploskov (Kulanu), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Zehava Gal-On (Meretz).

A total of 9, including Ilatov who only got his seat because Shochat decided not to take his. By place of birth it is 3 Russia (Svetlova, Razvozov, Landver), 2 Ukraine (Elkin and Edelstein - though, in the latter case, it is a bit of an accident), 2 Moldova (Liberman and Ploskov), 1 Lithuania (Gal On) and 1 Uzbekistan (Ilatov) - no Georgians this time.

Interestingly, two new MKs had to give up their Russian citizenship before beeing sworn in. One is Svetlova (onr of only two "new" MKs on this list). Another, quite unexpectedly, is Hadash's Abdullah Abu Maaruf, No. 13 on the Joint List, who went to medical school in Russia - and, I guess, got naturalized while there.

Not an expert on USSR immigration policy but I assume Maaruf married whilst studying\married a soviet citizen

There wasn't any immigration policy in recent decades, really.  Nor would marriage easily lead to naturalization. Of the three kinds of love (including heterosexual and homosexual) the Soviets, really, only cared about the third: Love of the Communist Party

[Zanas]

Of the three kinds of love (including heterosexual and homosexual) the Soviets, really, only cared about the third: Love of the Communist Party

And that is only natural, cause it's obviously the only true and important love there is.

/digression

[republicanbayer]

Did Netanyahu already form a coalition?

[danny]

Did Netanyahu already form a coalition?

Not yet, but it will happen soon.

[Hnv1]

Liberman announces his going for opposition (political hail Mary I reckon), thus incoming coalition will stand on the narrowest majority of 61. He may try to sway Labour in later on the road, but we're going to have quite a bumpy ride at start.