Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[ag]

Liberman announces his going for opposition (political hail Mary I reckon), thus incoming coalition will stand on the narrowest majority of 61. He may try to sway Labour in later on the road, but we're going to have quite a bumpy ride at start.

He does have a sadist touch, Mr. Liberman, doesn't he?

Frankly, if I were Kahlon, I would also defect now. Being a finance minister in a government, which every single government MK (the UTJ and the Shas folk included) can bring down overnight, will not be good for one's reputation.

Netaniyahu's best bet now is to try to split Yesh Atid. But that would be tough.

[MalaspinaGold]

Or a unity government.

[ag]

Or a unity government.

Why would Labor go into a unity government under Netaniyahu? Why would not their first demand be somebody else for PM?

And, in any case, there are two days left to negotiate such a government. From scratch.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So if they don't manage to negotiate in time ... is their automatic reelection?

[ag]

So if they don't manage to negotiate in time ... is their automatic reelection?

If I am not mistaken, Netanyahu is already on the extension. So, if I recall the law right, if they do not deliver by Thursday, it will be Herzog's turn to try. Liberman played it well.

Of course, they will sign on Thursday. But it will be a difficult government, to say the least. Bennet has asked for Justice, and he will, probably, get it. The others are on board already - though, methinks, Kahlon is being stupid to go into it.

[MalaspinaGold]

Here's a good rundown on it. If Bibi can't do it (unlikely but possible, if Bennett decides to play the game of chicken to the bitter end, then Herzog gets to try, then someone else, then snap elections).
http://www.ariehkovler.com/2015/05/israel-what-if-theres-no-coalition-by-tomorrows-deadline/

I am truly shocked that Bibi let this get away from him. I thought a coalition would have been a walk in the park...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clearly Lieberman is a dish served cold kind of guy.

[SATW]

Liberman only cares about Liberman.

[Hnv1]

Most likely, Bibi will tell the president he has a government and than in the week toward the inauguration sign the coalition deal with JH thus getting the slim majority by then

[ag]

Jpost reports that JH's Shaked will get Justice. 61 MK coalition to be presented shortly.

[ag]

Apparently, the offer of Justice to JH is accompanied with reductions in the content of the porfolio (e.g., the religious courts being taken out). And, at least one other JH MK (Ariel) has told Bennett that, unless HE is given Justice instead of Shaked, he will defect, leaving the coalition without a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lmao

[danny]

Apparently, the offer of Justice to JH is accompanied with reductions in the content of the porfolio (e.g., the religious courts being taken out). And, at least one other JH MK (Ariel) has told Bennett that, unless HE is given Justice instead of Shaked, he will defect, leaving the coalition without a majority.

Ariel isn't threatening just as an mk, but as the leader of Tkuma, the junior partner in the alliance with JH. If he would leave it would be with Smotrich.

[ag]

Apparently, the offer of Justice to JH is accompanied with reductions in the content of the porfolio (e.g., the religious courts being taken out). And, at least one other JH MK (Ariel) has told Bennett that, unless HE is given Justice instead of Shaked, he will defect, leaving the coalition without a majority.

Ariel isn't threatening just as an mk, but as the leader of Tkuma, the junior partner in the alliance with JH. If he would leave it would be with Smotrich.

It is going to be fun

[Famous Mortimer]

What would happen if there was an early election? Beytenu would be out of the Knesset. Probably Meretz too. Would Jewish Home be punished further for not cooperating? Could we see a return to the 80s where Labor and Likud are getting like 80% of the vote together?

[The Mikado]

Isn't it about time we opened up a thread on a more populated board like International General about these coalition negotiations?

Also, given the mandatory coalition-building time for the second and third place parties and the time for the election season itself, this hypothetical second election would be...what, October? November?

[ag]

Isn't it about time we opened up a thread on a more populated board like International General about these coalition negotiations?

Also, given the mandatory coalition-building time for the second and third place parties and the time for the election season itself, this hypothetical second election would be...what, October? November?

I would wait, at least, till tomorrow. We might be talking of new elections pretty soon, anyway Or, alternatively, there is going to be nothing to discuss.

There is nothing mandatory about the second and third, from what I understand. And, of course, Herzog could simply tell Rivlin that he cannot form a government and that he recommends disolution.

[ag]

What would happen if there was an early election? Beytenu would be out of the Knesset. Probably Meretz too. Would Jewish Home be punished further for not cooperating? Could we see a return to the 80s where Labor and Likud are getting like 80% of the vote together?

Why would Meretz do any worse than last time? If anything, their voters seemed quite happy they made it.

[Famous Mortimer]

Or they would just merge into "The Zionist Union" like Hnv1 was saying.

[ag]

Or they would just merge into "The Zionist Union" like Hnv1 was saying.

Why would they?

[Famous Mortimer]

So that Labor comes in first and gets to form a government. Duh.

[ag]

So that Labor comes in first and gets to form a government. Duh.

Coming first and getting to form the government are entirely logically unrelated propositions. What is important, is who can form the government. On top of everything else, if Meretz and Labor merge, chances are at least some Meretz voters would either move to Hadash (JAL) or will stay home - this may well cost the combine a seat, making government formation even harder.

[Famous Mortimer]

Dude, you took part in this thread the whole time it was going on. Why are you pretending like you don't know this stuff?

Coming in first is extremely important to forming a coalition. Shas and UTJ will only form a government with the left if the left comes in first.

Also, it doesn't matter if votes go from Labor to the Joint List because the Joint List will have to be an unofficial member of a Labor coalition anyway.

[ag]

Dude, you took part in this thread the whole time it was going on. Why are you pretending like you don't know this stuff?

Coming in first is extremely important to forming a coalition. Shas and UTJ will only form a government with the left if the left comes in first.

Also, it doesn't matter if votes go from Labor to the Joint List because the Joint List will have to be an unofficial member of a Labor coalition anyway.

I thought the entire thread was about the fact that coming first was NOT important. Shas and UTJ have a distinct preference for forming the government with the right. They could be coaxed into a left-wing government (at a cost) - if the right-wing government could not be formed. In addition, Shas and UTJ have a serious issue with YA - and it has an issue with them, so a coalition including both would be extremely difficult and unstable, at best. Finally, why would a Meretznik want a coalition with Shas and UTJ in the first place?

In this particular case the issue was not so much that Likud had more seats, but that the combined right had a lot more seats than the combined left (even if you count the entire JAL as left). The symbolic "come first" has always been pretty much irrelevant.

[Hnv1]

What would happen if there was an early election? Beytenu would be out of the Knesset. Probably Meretz too. Would Jewish Home be punished further for not cooperating? Could we see a return to the 80s where Labor and Likud are getting like 80% of the vote together?

Why would Meretz do any worse than last time? If anything, their voters seemed quite happy they made it.

They'll be a small boost for Meretz as Labour won't have to let's win effect to sway voters second time around.
Anyway there won't be a second election, Labour's old guard will just make Herzog crawl at one point into a unity government and that is why I will never vote Labour.

Now Liberman is going to do what he does best, populist racism to regain right wing voters