Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

When are the JH primaries going to take place? I've seen 'January 5' in a lot of places but that obviously can't be right, since they'd be over in that case.

If you are wondering about the date for the primaries:

Likud: 31/12
Labour:13/1
Jewish Home: 14/1
Meretz: 19/1

[Vosem]

When are the JH primaries going to take place? I've seen 'January 5' in a lot of places but that obviously can't be right, since they'd be over in that case.

If you are wondering about the date for the primaries:

Likud: 31/12
Labour:13/1
Jewish Home: 14/1
Meretz: 19/1

I see. Thank you!

[Hnv1]

Interior Defence Minister Aharonovic announces his departure from political life as well. Liberman's party is breaking apart it seems

[Vosem]

Interior Defence Minister Aharonovic announces his departure from political life as well. Liberman's party is breaking apart it seems

An Arutz Sheva article about a different topic casually mentioned at one point that Lieberman intends to promote popular MK Orly Levy (sister of very likely Likud newbie Jackie Levy) to spot #2 on the YB list ( http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/189714#.VLBIOmTF9As ) -- is that true?

The article says that Orly Levy and Netanya mayor Miriam Feirberg were Netanyahu's first two choices, but apparently they both seem unlikely to take the offer. I think 11th on the Likud list might be safer than 2nd on the YB list at this point, but I guess that's debatable. Hotovely is actively campaigning to have one of the two slots.

[Zanas]

So Yisrael Beitenu is running alone this time? Are they willing to only enter into a coalition with Likud, or would they consider one with Labor-Livni et al. ?

[Famous Mortimer]

So Yisrael Beitenu is running alone this time? Are they willing to only enter into a coalition with Likud, or would they consider one with Labor-Livni et al. ?

Old news, dude. Yes, they're running alone. Apparently Lieberman is trying to appear less right-wing this time around (actually it would be more accurate to say he's trying to be all things to all people, saying Netanyahu should have launched a ground invasion of Gaza and he should negotiate more). I suspect if push came to shove, he would still join a Likud led coalition pretty easily. Labor is also a real possibility though (and they will probably need him to form a government), as is sitting out and being in the opposition. Of course, this isn't that big of a shift for him, he did sit with Kadima and Shas under Olmert.

[Hnv1]

So Yisrael Beitenu is running alone this time? Are they willing to only enter into a coalition with Likud, or would they consider one with Labor-Livni et al. ?

Well as I see it:
- he tried breaking centre with the help of Yediot Ahronot
- his party got involved in one of the biggest corruption cases which made him re-break right
- most of the "independent" seniors of his party got tired from taking his sh**t and he got tired from hearing them which explains the departure wave
- now he's floating no where...Maariv and Yediot are trying to promote him but it doesn't seem to be getting to people.
- Lots of the Russian and right wing voters will trend JH with a bit more trending Likud and  I think his ceiling right now is around 6-7

[Famous Mortimer]

Some more speculation about who Bibi might pick:

"Several commenters suggested political figures, such as Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovely, who was elected in the primaries to the 26th spot and is in danger of not making it into the Knesset; former ministers Benny Begin and Dan Meridor, who did not make it into the Knesset in the previous election; MK Orly Levi-Abekasis of Yisrael Beiteinu; Be’er Sheva Mayor Rubik Danilovich; Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat; General (res.) Yoav Galant; and Father Gabriel Nadaf, leader of a group advocating that Israeli Christians join the army."

Of course, the article this is from was written the day before Yoav Galant joined Kulanu.

[danny]

Tkuma has chosen their candidates (place in the combined list with JH):

1 (2) Uri Ariel (ran unopposed for leadership)
2 (9) Bezalel Smotrich (the new guy who beat the incumbents)
3 (14) Orit Struk
4 (18) Zevulun Kalfa

[Famous Mortimer]

Deri's resignation from the Knesset officially went through but not the resignations of the other Shas members.

[danny]

Deri's resignation from the Knesset officially went through but not the resignations of the other Shas members.

Don't worry, he'll be back soon.

[Famous Mortimer]

Feiglin won't run for this election but he will form his own party with the aim of running for the next next election.

[Famous Mortimer]

Labor primary on Tuesday.

The race for top spot will be between former leader Shelly and Eitan Cabel, who is ideologically exactly the same as Shelly but is backed by Herzog.

You may remember in the last Labor primary, when Shelly was leader, the race for top spot was between Peretz (who was ideologically identical to Shelly but Shelly didn't want him to win) and Herzog, who was backed by Shelly as the anti-Peretz candidate.

Labor.

[Vosem]

Three pieces of big news:

1) Kind of expected, but Aryeh Deri will rejoin Shas and will run as party leader. The past week of polling has looked pretty good for him, with Yishai under the threshold in almost all polls and Shas consistently getting 5-7 seats; obviously a decline from 2013, but polling at the end of December had called Shas' very survival into question.

2) Yisrael Beiteinu MK Faina Kirschenbaum won't seek reelection because of corruption allegations. Kirschenbaum was never a minister, but she was considered to be a very close confidante of Lieberman, who apparently tried to dissuade her from retiring. She is the fourth Yisrael Beiteinu MK to retire, after MK David Rotem and Ministers Yitzhak Aharonovich and Uzi Landau.

3) Moshe Kachlon has recruited Ethiopian-Israeli journalist/radio station director Tzaga Malko to be #3 on his list -- she will be the highest-ranked woman on the Kulanu list. Of the top seven people on the Kulanu list, 3 are women. The articles I saw made a very big deal of this, but it isn't really that impressive -- Labor and Meretz will very likely both have the same proportion.

[Famous Mortimer]

Any results from the Labor primary yet?

[danny]

Any results from the Labor primary yet?

They said the results will be announced at 9:30 local time (2:45 hours from now).

[danny]

Any results from the Labor primary yet?

They said the results will be announced at 9:30 local time (2:45 hours from now).

NVM, results are in:
1) herzog
2) Livni (Movement)
3) Yechimovich
4) Shaffir
5) Shmuli
6) Bar Lev
7) Yechiel Bar (reserved for party secretary general)
8 ) Presumably Peretz (movement)
9) Michaeli
10) Cabel
11) (Herzogs pick)
12) Margalit
13) Rosental
14) Revital Sweid
15) Danny Atar
16) (Movement)
17) Bahaloul (minority)
18) Eitan Broshi (kibutzim and Moshavim)
19) Biran
20) Shay
21) (movement)
22) Ayelet Verbin
23) Yossi Yona
24) (Movement)
25) (Movement)

[Famous Mortimer]

Holy crap.

Eitan was supposed to come in first or second. Instead he came in sixth.

On top of that, Shaffir is a Shelly ally who came in second.

I guess if Herzog doesn't become PM, Shelly will be able to re-take leadership.

[Famous Mortimer]

The two incumbent MKs who fell to unrealistic spots are Moshe Mizrahi and Arab MK Raleb Majadele, who just re-entered the Knesset like a week ago.

As far as I know, there was nothing really wrong with Mizrahi. His loss seems kind of random, like Hotovely's in the Likud primary.

I think he's a Shelly supporter though, so unlike Hotovely, there's no chance he'll get airdropped into one of the leader's picks' slots

[danny]

The two incumbent MKs who fell to unrealistic spots are Moshe Mizrahi and Arab MK Raleb Majadele, who just re-entered the Knesset like a week ago.

As far as I know, there was nothing really wrong with Mizrahi. His loss seems kind of random, like Hotovely's in the Likud primary.

I think he's a Shelly supporter though, so unlike Hotovely, there's no chance he'll get airdropped into one of the leader's picks' slots

Moshe Mizrahi is number 29, Majadle is at 35.
Eldad Yaniv whom headed his own small party last election is at 30.

[MalaspinaGold]

It seems Labor will run on the same socioeconomic agenda they campaigned on last time.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.636980

Only time will tell whether or not it will be more successful.

[Famous Mortimer]

Moshe Mizrahi is most famous for overseeing a corruption case against Avigdor Liberman. With him gone, it will be easier for Labor to form a government with Beytenu.

Voters might have even shunned him specifically for this reason.

[Hnv1]

Holy crap.

Eitan was supposed to come in first or second. Instead he came in sixth.

On top of that, Shaffir is a Shelly ally who came in second.

I guess if Herzog doesn't become PM, Shelly will be able to re-take leadership.

Not really. She ran as if she's keeping unity and boosting Herzog Similar to Peres to Rabin in the 91 primaries.
I doubt she can gather support for retaking leadership. If Herzog fails I suspect a Diskin, Margalit, Random tri-run

[danny]

So the Labour Livni union will be called "The Zionist Camp" after all.
Also Kachlon seems to have made up his mind and now says that he supports same sex marriage.

[Famous Mortimer]

Now the Jewish Home primaries.