Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Where's Zandberg's husband?

[danny]

Where's Zandberg's husband?

Number 10

[Vosem]

JPost says that Yadlin will be the Labor candidate for Defense Minister if they can keep the portfolio, but that he won't be seeking a seat in the Knesset. So it's still unclear who will get the 11th spot, leaving an outside opportunity for Mofaz.

[MalaspinaGold]

Shas just released an excellent ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4PyeR1YsD8

Thank you for not insulting the Russians again...

[MalaspinaGold]

Here's the Meretz list down to 13:
1) Zehava Galon
2) Ilan Gilon
3) Issawi Frej
4) Michal Rozin
5) Tamar Zandberg
6) Mossi Raz
7) Gabi Lasky
Avi Dabush
9) Avshalom Vilan
10) Uri Zaki
11) Revital Len Cohen
12) Nir Lahav
13) Itai Svirski

Overall a very left-wing list, even more so than last time. Both Raz and Laski are on the left end of the party, especially when it comes to human rights. They also managed to outdo Labor in terms of female representation (four of the first seven, compared to three of the top five).  Also fairly strong sephardi representation. And then of course there's the fact that Frej took the third spot, quite impressive for an Arab in a Zionist party.

Also, it seems that Kachlon's number 3, the Ethiopian journalist Tzago Malko, may not be able to run, as she didn't resign from her job in time.

[danny]

The Arab parties have finally agreed on a united list (I haven't checked the spelling, I'm just guessing from a He:

1) Ayman Ouda (Hadash)
2) Massoud Ghanaim (RAAM)
3) Jamal Zahalka (Balad)
4) Ahmed Tibi (TAAL)
5) Ayida Tuma-Sliman (Hadash)
6) Abd Al-Hakim Haj-Yehieh (RAAM)
7) Henin Zouabi (Balad)
8 ) Dov Khenin (Hadash)
9) Taleb Abu-Arar (RAAM)
10) Yusuf Jabbarin (Haddash)
11) Bassel Ghatas (Balad)

From this point there are a bunch of rotations.

[Famous Mortimer]

Any speculation on a name?

[danny]

Any speculation on a name?

They haven't agreed on that yet.

[ag]

Haaretz gives 15 slots

1. Aiman Ouda (Hadash)
2. Masud Ganaim (Ra'am)
3. Jamal Zahalka (Balad)
4. Ahmad Tibi (Ta'al)
5. Aida Tomeh Saliman (Hadash)
6. Abdel Hakim Haj Yahia  (Ra'am)
7. Haneen Zoabi (Balad)
8. Dov Henin (Hadash)
9. Taleb Abu Arar  (Ra'am)
10. Dr. Yussuf Jabareen (Hadash)
11. Basel Ghattas (Balad)
12. Reserved for Ta'al
13. Dr. Abdullah Abu Maaruf (Hadash)
14. Joumaa Azbarka (Balad)
15. Saeed Al-Horomi  (Ra'am)

A joint list might improve the turnout. Would 12-14 seats be out of reach?

[ag]

So,  Hadash is pretty much guaranteed 4 and realistically may get 5. Balad should get 3, but might go up to 4 or down to 2.  Ra'am should get 3, with an outside chance for 4. And Ahmad Tibi is in - and, quite possibly, with a friend.

[danny]

As I said, from place 12 there will be rotations, so it isn't exactly a full spot.

12) TAAL/RAAM
13) Hadash/Balad
14) Hadash/Balad

[Famous Mortimer]

Which for anyone not familiar means that 12-15 will just resign after 2 years and be replaced by 16-19.

[ag]

So, who is 16/19?

[danny]

So, who is 16/19?

I checked and I think I understand what they did now.

12 will be TAAL, if they don't get 15, then he will resign after 2 years and number 15 from RAAM will be there. the names don't seem to be known yet.

Same thing between 13-14 with abu Maaruf in 13 from Hadash and Azberga in 14 from Balad.

[ag]

15 is al Horomi and Azberga is from Balad.

[danny]

15 is al Horomi and Azberga is from Balad.

Yeah, writing Hadash twice was a mistake, fixed

[ag]

It is important to see how much Khenin can retain the Jewish vote.

[Famous Mortimer]

Can't see Jews voting for the Islamic Movement. I'm guessing they leave to Meretz. Jewish Hadash voters account for like what...1/4th of a seat though?

[Zanas]

Is this Arab alliance unprecedented, or at least how much of an effect could it have on the upcoming election ? And could someone throw in 3 or 4 lines about each of the 4 components ? I get what Hadash is, but I cannot really make up my mind on Raam, Taal and Balad.

[ag]

Can't see Jews voting for the Islamic Movement. I'm guessing they leave to Meretz. Jewish Hadash voters account for like what...1/4th of a seat though?

Well, it depends. The parties are not merging. It is a marriage of convenience, forced by the electoral law changes. Hadash has a stronger representation on the list than Raam. And, of course, there is still Khenin - how he campaigns might make some difference.

[ag]

Is this Arab alliance unprecedented, or at least how much of an effect could it have on the upcoming election ? And could someone throw in 3 or 4 lines about each of the 4 components ? I get what Hadash is, but I cannot really make up my mind on Raam, Taal and Balad.

Yes, it is unprecedented. Hadash has, in the past, run with Balad and with Taal, but never with both together and never with Raam.  Taal has run with each of the other three. But this is, indeed, new. And this would not have happened if the PR threshold had not been raised to 3.25%. Normally, each of the main three gets around 2.5% - a bit more if Taal joins this particular party. It is very rare for any one of them to cross 4%. So, at best, without a merger all would have been at risk. At the very least, the number of "Arab" parties had to be "rationalized" to 2.

Hadash - mostly Communists, still, at least in part, bicommunal. For them this merger is tough, as it further defines them as an "Arab party" - and there is still some Jewish hard core left. Furthermore, they are ideologically extremely inconsistent with Raam.

Balad - secular, fairly, I believe, urban, reasonably wealthy (definitely non-Communist) Arab nationalist party.

Taal - followers of the most popular secular Arab MK (Ahmad Tibi)

Raam - like Hadash it is a coalition, but whereas Hadash is Communist-dominated, Raam is dominated by the Islamic movement (with a strong Bedoine component). So, this is the opposite end of the political spectrum, as far as Arabic Israel is concerned.

To sum up, the 3.25% threshold has forced all non-Zionist forces in Israel to join in one list. Whereas as before their voter had a choice within the political spectrum: from Communists to Islamists - now there will be no choice. In addition, Jewish non-Zionists are left without a proper political home: even though Dov Khenin is still on the list and will remain an MK, he will be an MK for an unambiguously Arab list.

On the other hand, the 3.25% rule will really consolidate things. Previously, a not very ideologically well-defined Arab Israeli would have doubts whom to vote for. In addition, he would have to contend with calls for boycott of Israeli politics - the call that would be the easier to adhere to the more confused he were. No confusion now.

Polls are saying that most Arabs really wanted a joint list, and many would only vote if they had one. So, the Arab turnout should grow. Furthermore, with one list there will be no Arab vote "lost". In contrast, there will be some vote splintering among the Jewish parties. The 3.25% threshold is new, and some factions, at least, will not cross it, though they might come close. That would increase the number of the Jewish votes "lost".

Between the two effects the united Arab slate will earn, at least, a couple of extra seats. Whereas last time the three slates together had 11 MKs, this time 12-14 seems reasonable, and 15 is not, perhaps, out of question. These will be the MKs that will not be available to form a government (though some might be willing to support a leftist government from the outside). So, if they get 15 seats (unlikely, but not, perhaps, fully impossible), the government would need 61/105 Jewish party MKs to support it, which would likely require a broader coalition.

The 3.25% rule was, largely, designed to discomfit the Arabs (only the Arabic parties have been consistent in getting 2%-4% votes for a long time; the Jewish parties who get that vote share are either one-election wonders, or those on the upswing into/exit from the major politics). Instead it has produced further consolidation and further definition of the Arab voter as, first and foremost, a non-Jew.

[ag]

So, seems Tibi agreed to the fourth spot (rather than the first) in exchange for the 12th/15th rotation for his second (whoever that is going to be). Which indicates that he, at least, reasonably expects 12 or more seats for the joint slate. The argument for the 13th/14th rotation suggests that there are serious hopes for more. 15 would be fun to watch, though probably will not happen

[Hnv1]

As I gather from his FB page the new leader Odeh says that "if the right wing calls it 'the national camp' and labour call themselves 'the zionist camp' we will couter with 'the democratic camp'"
So I guess there is a new name. I suspact a small trend of voters from them to Meretz nothing significant.

[ag]

Seems it will be the United Democratic Party.

[danny]

Reserved spots in the Zionist camp:
2: Livni
8: Peretz
11: Trachtenberg
16: Yoel Hasson
21: Ksenia Svetalova
24: Yael Cohen
25: Shlomo Mula

Yoel Hasson is a horrible person, can't stand that guy and not looking forward to his return.
Yael cohen used to be in the green movement, which didn't pass the threshold. Also was active in the anti road 6 movement, the road itself turned out to be very useful, so I'm glad that she lost on that subject.